Bill Connelly Michigan-MSU Preview Up at SB Nation
There are some interesting numbers therein, including those demonstrating Sparty's continued ridiculous turnover luck relative to ours:
Field position stems from a combination of offensive and defensive efficiency, turnovers, and special teams. Michigan has actually been a bit unlucky in the turnovers department, recovering only four of 13 fumbles so far. That's a pretty scary thought and a hint at how much the Wolverines have won (mostly) in efficiency and (a little) in special teams. State has been much more reliant on turnovers.
The Spartans have been a little bit lucky in terms of interceptions. They're holding onto their chances (24 percent of their 25 passes defensed have been interceptions, which is a bit high), and opponents are dropping theirs (8 percent of 26 passes defensed have been interceptions).
Some regression in this game in these categories could mean a big swing in our favor. Recommend reading the whole thing; it's not very long.
October 15th, 2015 at 10:33 AM ^
I could not be more pumped for this game
October 15th, 2015 at 10:45 AM ^
I could be more pumped for this game.
Signed,
"I Could Care Less" Guy.
October 15th, 2015 at 10:56 AM ^
October 15th, 2015 at 11:04 AM ^
Hell, even Iowa is pumped for this game
October 15th, 2015 at 1:57 PM ^
October 15th, 2015 at 2:10 PM ^
Amen to that, brother!
October 15th, 2015 at 10:34 AM ^
but I'm still skeptical that Rudock or our offense will play to the level we need in order to pull out a W.
October 15th, 2015 at 10:38 AM ^
October 15th, 2015 at 10:51 AM ^
I'm latching onto a large degree of faith in the game plan/scheme being put together.
Or, more simply stated, HARBAUGH.
October 15th, 2015 at 12:34 PM ^
http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/harbaugh
FWIW, I nominate the linked post for the User-Curated HOF.
October 15th, 2015 at 10:45 AM ^
MSU has given up average 21 points per game the season - against crap teams
So you are saying our offense can't get 21? Which offense have they played is better than ours?
Or that our defense will give up more than 21?
October 15th, 2015 at 10:50 AM ^
We're talking about an MSU team that almost lost to Purdue and Rutgers, both of whom suck this year (as per usual).
We are going to beat their asses. Even if they play their best game of the year. The only questions in my mind are the margin of victory and is our shut-out streak going to continue.
October 15th, 2015 at 10:59 AM ^
As much as MSU's defense seems like it is beatable, I don't think we have the players capable of really taking advantage.
October 15th, 2015 at 1:04 PM ^
MSU's secondary had one job..,
October 15th, 2015 at 1:05 PM ^
Wait, WHAT? Do you really believe that? Because if so, BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA...
October 15th, 2015 at 11:23 AM ^
You're basing success in this game on our offense? Our offense has been largely inconsistent this year and even when they are clicking they are pretty average.
I hope M hangs a lot of points on them as much as anyone else, but I'm not so sure I would predict a win based on our offense when we're not sure which version of Rudock we'll get in this game. Not to mention, we don't seem to match up well against their D: they are stout up front and their (percieved) weakness is in the secondary, while our QB hasn't proven an ability to exploit downfield matchups all year.
Here's hoping this is the game Rudock can make it happen.
October 15th, 2015 at 11:57 AM ^
I'm somewhat rehashing my own comment from another thread, but I think it bears repeating. I think we'll score and move the ball just fine on them. Teams way shittier than Michigan have outgained them all year. Narduzzi is gone. Their NFL level defensive talent outside of Calhoun is gone. Even IF Sparty's current d-line is as dominating as it was in the past couple of years (it's not), they are no longer facing a young, inexperienced and poorly coached oline running an incoherrent scheme. This is a veteran line that is stronger, older, Drevno-coached and running week 7 of a continually improving Harbaugh offense. I think we see an in control Jake Rudock making prudent decisions, not a running-for-his-life Devin Gardner. We've got an older Darboh, Butt and Chesson making plays on shaky (non-NFL level) corners, instead of Funchess loafing around and being blanketed. And to boot, innovative NFL caliber playcallers and gameplanners. Both offenses will pull out new plays and formations, but I'll take our defense over theirs in adjusting and shutting it down. Should be a low scoring affair but the only thing I see stopping us is a massive trolling by the turnover gremlin.
October 15th, 2015 at 10:46 AM ^
Don't worry about the offense. They will score points. Just remember that we have one of the best defenses in the Milky Way Galaxy right now. THAT is why we're going to win this game.
October 15th, 2015 at 10:54 AM ^
I heard there's a team with a pretty good defense on URANUS
/drops mic, exits stage left
October 15th, 2015 at 11:32 AM ^
<Ron Burgundy "hi oooooh">
October 15th, 2015 at 4:03 PM ^
chastity belt?
October 15th, 2015 at 11:27 AM ^
Out of curiousity what is that skepticism based on? Just a residual, gut feeling based on prior year performances? or an anaylsis of football data and observations?
October 15th, 2015 at 10:35 AM ^
I've looked but can't find anything. Who is calling the game on ESPN? Probably Griese?
October 15th, 2015 at 10:38 AM ^
October 15th, 2015 at 10:41 AM ^
I really hope Denard turns those passing lanes into running lanes, or we will have to hear about it twenty-eight times from Spielman.
October 15th, 2015 at 10:45 AM ^
At least we didn't get boned with Mowens and Galloway.
October 15th, 2015 at 10:47 AM ^
HAHA, not a chance that would have happened. They do the lower tier games.
October 15th, 2015 at 10:49 AM ^
They deserve to be demoted to ESPN 8, The Ocho.
October 15th, 2015 at 10:59 AM ^
Pepper Brooks? Best commentator on The Ocho. "He doesn't have any balls, Cotton!"
October 15th, 2015 at 10:56 AM ^
Pam Ward (along with Spielman) did the 49-3 game over Sparty in 2002. And hearing her try to scream, "Touchdown Michigan!" was painfully bad.
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
October 15th, 2015 at 12:47 PM ^
October 15th, 2015 at 10:48 AM ^
They save those superstars for bottom end of conference matchups ala Rutgers Indiana type games. Or unfort Hoke Michigan past few years sigh.
Another bonus of #Harbaugh - avoiding Galloway
October 15th, 2015 at 12:06 PM ^
October 15th, 2015 at 1:48 PM ^
On one hand deep down it hurts to know a buckeye is calling the game, but on the other hand speilman never hesitates to heap praise on michigan, so im fine with this.
October 15th, 2015 at 10:40 AM ^
I dont think protecting the ball is "luck"; they focus on that. I am sure Harbaugh does too as TO margin is one of the most meaningful measures of who wins a game.
Cook usually makes safe throws in a safe Debord offense except when they are behind. Which for the past 3 years has been rarely due to the defenses of 2013 and 2014. And when he does throw an INT the opposing teams have been great at dropping it the past 2.5 years as well! Connelly even mentions that in his piece - I'd love to see the drop rate in 2014 and 2013 - Cook must throw a ball DBs simply cannot hold onto. Never seen a QB get so many dropped INTs.
They also do what we did to Isaac the minute a RB fumbles - he gets banished.
Now I do think the defensive turnovers are a bit variable esp fumble recoveries. You can cause them but sometimes the offense recovers them. But that is the only tiny issue with the defense at this point statistically - we are among the bottom 10 in the country in fumbles recovered with 1. (Not sure where Bill is getting 4 fumble recoveries as NCAA stats show 1)
They have been among national leaders in turnover margin for 3 years - doubt its all luck, unlike the injuries thing which I think has been until this year.
October 15th, 2015 at 10:53 AM ^
I feel people who dismiss turnovers as "luck" are oversimplifying the issue. The only part of TOs I considered to be mainly "luck" is fumble recoveries due to the random bouncing of an oddly shaped ball. Forcing fumbles is something that tends to happen when you play physical, sound defense. You get INTs by pressuring the QB and making plays in the secondary. You avoid INTs by good QB/OL play. You avoid fumbles by having your ball carriers be sound technically. So when I see someone say that so-and so will not have the same TO luck, I only think thats necessarily true if they recovered an abnormally high rate of fumbles or lose an abnormally low rate of fumbles (i.e us in 2011).
October 15th, 2015 at 1:08 PM ^
Right. I think that's exactly what Connelly is saying. He's not quantifying turnover luck by turnover margain (although I think S&P+ might); he's quantifying it by % of fumbles recovered and % of defensed passes intercepted. TO margain is part luck and part skill and he is focuing on the luck portion.
I think we all agree fumble recovery rate is largely luck. It's not obvious to me why int rate on passes defensed would be, but I assume Connelly has good evidence it isn't repeatable.
October 15th, 2015 at 11:32 AM ^
I'm pretty sure he is counting all fumbles in our games, not just those by the opponent.
October 15th, 2015 at 10:43 AM ^
Mark Dantonio is going to resent this.
October 15th, 2015 at 10:48 AM ^
Yeah. This is his reaction.
October 15th, 2015 at 11:11 AM ^
Will, too.
October 15th, 2015 at 10:44 AM ^
They don't predict a winner. OK.
October 15th, 2015 at 10:49 AM ^
Bill clearly is implying Michigan by 60. Some things you just don't have to say.
October 15th, 2015 at 10:47 AM ^
October 15th, 2015 at 11:07 AM ^
Michigan State's trip to Michigan is a narrative game. It seems that the "Michigan State owns Michigan" story, which has served Sparty well for years now, is set to expire. Through six weeks, Michigan has been the clearly superior team on paper. But until the Wolverines actually take down the Spartans for the second time in eight years, we don't know it will happen.For all that's being said about our prospects of winning this game, I just want it to happen. Until then, I'm scared to death of this narrative continuing. I love our chances every Saturday, but it's the getting it done part that I fear. This is sports.
October 15th, 2015 at 11:13 AM ^
October 15th, 2015 at 11:18 AM ^
I just want the game clock to hit 0:00 with Michigan Pts > Michigan State Pts
We've sufffered long enough. It's time.
October 15th, 2015 at 12:58 PM ^
Right after the game gotta head over to meet a bunch of friends for a kid's b-day party...
And, all I wanna be doing there is eating, drinking, feeling elated, and just reminiscing on our win the entire time while dreaming about the heights this team will attain...
And then, envisioning myself going home and spending hours in front of the laptop reading snowflakes, muppets, articles, posts, responding to posts, watching highlights, and texting back&forth w/ my buddies on how awesome we are - with a glass of 12-year single malt right next to me...
Lord, please... Is this too much to ask for?
October 15th, 2015 at 11:15 AM ^
We're going to get their best shot and this is still a talented team with a good coach with an unreasonable hard-on for Michigan.
I want to believe very badly, but I simply have to see it. Until then I am going to assume their defensive line is going to figure out a way to replicate the Utah gameplan with new wrinkels to cause issues for the O-line. That Cook is going to play out of his mind and make a few ridiculous throws to his receivers and that MSU will have figured out the snap count or gotten some other advantage that comes from ridiculous over-preparation again. The set-up for a "No-one believed in us and look what we did!" Storyline is absolutely there and Frankly, a win over Michigan will get the season back on track for a team with ambitious goals.
I also need to see that this team won't get bullied by MSU the way they have in the past, I just worry there's some sort of psychological advantage there as well.
Still, I expect the atmopsphere in the Big House will be electric, the team will be prepared and ready to fight, and that it's time to get this particular monkey off of our backs.
Go Blue!