Big Ten Week Two Lines, Prediction Discussion Thread
New Hampshire @ Minnesota
Penn State @ Virginia (-10)
Central Florida @ Ohio (-18)
Indiana @ UMass (+18)
Iowa State @ Iowa (-5)
Purdue @ Notre Dame (-14.5)
Air Force @ Michigan (-21)
Michigan State @ Central Michigan (+22)
Wisconsin @ Oregon State (+8)
Nebraska @ UCLA (+5.5)
Vanderbilt @ Northwestern (+3.5)
Illinois @ Arizona State (-3)
All lines listed are for the home team (i.e. IU is favored by 18 at UMass, Michigan is favored by 21 at home against AFA). For some reason there isn't a line released for Minnesota, though they do play this week.
Besides the betting lines, what are everyone's thoughts on this week? The Big Ten steps its competition up pretty significantly this week, with seven BCS/ND opponents, and the two Michigan schools play a decent MWC team and a good MAC team.
Personally, I think this could be a good week for the conference. I don't think anyone gets blown out, and with a couple good games (cough, Northwestern, Iowa and Nebraska, cough) our computer rankings could be improved big time from last season. I think the only losses to count on are Penn State and Purdue, although what do I know?
September 5th, 2012 at 10:58 AM ^
Minny
UVa
Ohio
UMass
Iowa ST
Purdue
Michigan
CMU
Wisconsin
UCLA
NWestern
ASU
September 5th, 2012 at 11:09 AM ^
I don't think ND is a juggernaut or anything, but do you think Purdue matches up that much better than Navy? I'll admit I only caught the last quarter or so, but ND absolutely destroyed Navy.
Disclaimer: I do realize your username might be influencing your pick.
September 5th, 2012 at 11:43 AM ^
September 5th, 2012 at 12:01 PM ^
But I still don't know if I believe it. I think us and State both beat them fairly easily, but I don't know if Purdue can beat them, or even stay on the field most of the game.
Also, I'm not sure how much we should take away from Navy's passing game. Kelly has always seemed confused about Navy's offense, and their preperation probably included next to nothing on a passing game. ND's secondary is pretty bad, but I don't see them getting lit up by everyone they play, especially with a new starter like Navy had (TerBush will be playing in his first game back from suspension, although he has something like a year of starting experience).
September 5th, 2012 at 4:23 PM ^
ND might be looking ahead to the MSU game, so in a sense this week might be a "trap" game.
September 5th, 2012 at 4:14 PM ^
When you are a team that runs it 95% of the time and throw it less all year than most teams do in one game, it is surprising.
September 5th, 2012 at 11:58 AM ^
but yes, my username pretty much explains all decisions involving ND.
Also, all of my pics were based on the points spreads you provided. I like Purdue with +14.5.
September 5th, 2012 at 11:03 AM ^
Brain Fremeau at FEI is predicting M 40 - 14 over AFA with a 95% win probability.
Hope he's right.
September 5th, 2012 at 12:24 PM ^
What did he predict for Michigan - Alabama?
September 5th, 2012 at 11:05 AM ^
Watch out Wiscy, Neb & NW.
Also Ohio better take Central Fla seriously.
September 5th, 2012 at 11:07 AM ^
September 5th, 2012 at 11:33 AM ^
I'll take 460 yards of laughable offense most weeks.
September 5th, 2012 at 11:48 AM ^
What drives a person to post on another team's blog's message board? I never understood why people take the time to do that. Are you in college / have a shit ton of free time?
September 5th, 2012 at 11:56 AM ^
I enjoy college football and I glean information from this site, among others. I post because it's fun to go back and forth with people who don't share my views. I don't have a shit-ton of free time, but then again I don't post a ton. Mostly lurk.
September 5th, 2012 at 12:31 PM ^
September 5th, 2012 at 2:08 PM ^
You're right, they can and should improve on their YPP. The passing game was pretty bad outside of the fourth quarter. I thought Maxwell played fine in the second half and especially in the fourth quarter. I'm happy with how he handled the pressure. Now, will some WRs step up? Your guess is as good as mine. Realistically, it might not happen until mid-season when the young guys get some experience.
Run game was fine. They completely controlled the clock in the 4th, which is what they should have done against a defense like that.
Re: Turnovers and scoring ... Obviously they'll be in trouble if they can't hang onto the ball. I'll be the first one to call them terrible if they turn it over four times every game.
September 5th, 2012 at 3:27 PM ^
September 5th, 2012 at 7:32 PM ^
You're reading too much into one comment. Obviously there's more to it than "460 yards = win" and "turnovers = bad." Maybe the WR comment muddied my point: I thought the run game was fine overall and Maxwell played well down the stretch.
September 5th, 2012 at 11:49 AM ^
460 yards against a team that returned two defensive starters is very impressive.
September 5th, 2012 at 1:47 PM ^
September 5th, 2012 at 12:27 PM ^
I'm guessing you missed Centrals game then. They were getting halfway blow out by SE Mo St in the first half of their 1st game before pulling away in the 2nd half. CMU still gave up 188 yards on the ground at 4.2 YPC to an unranked FCS Team
MSU should throttle CMU. Probably something like 44-6 and Leveon Bell will probably have 200ish yards and the brief Leveon for Heisman hype train will start rolling
September 5th, 2012 at 12:45 PM ^
September 5th, 2012 at 11:12 AM ^
UMass is 18 points worse than Indiana? Holy shit they must suck.
September 5th, 2012 at 12:10 PM ^
September 5th, 2012 at 11:13 AM ^
New Hampshire @ Minnesota - Minny
Penn State @ Virginia (-10) - Penn State gets a much needed win
Central Florida @ Ohio (-18) - Those Guys
Indiana @ UMass (+18) - Indiana
Iowa State @ Iowa (-5) - Iowa
Purdue @ Notre Dame (-14.5) - Notre Dame
Air Force @ Michigan (-21) - Michigan is pissed and domination occurs
Michigan State @ Central Michigan (+22) - Those Guys
Wisconsin @ Oregon State (+8) - Wisconsin
Nebraska @ UCLA (+5.5) - UCLA
Vanderbilt @ Northwestern (+3.5) - Vanderbilt
Illinois @ Arizona State (-3) - Arizona State
September 5th, 2012 at 11:19 AM ^
September 5th, 2012 at 11:21 AM ^
I'm not sure i like us winning by more than 3 touchdowns. If we actually run Denard this weekend i can see us putting up 40, but with the defense playing so poorly, "technique-wise" as Mattison put it, I just can't see us holding an option attack to less than 3 touchdowns.
September 5th, 2012 at 11:24 AM ^
need to show that the Alabama game was a one time thing, tripple option will test them.
I think this D is still solid...time to show the nation we are against a confusing offense like this.
September 5th, 2012 at 11:29 AM ^
September 5th, 2012 at 11:22 AM ^
I'll take Illinois as the big surprise of the week.
September 5th, 2012 at 11:26 AM ^
September 5th, 2012 at 11:31 AM ^
September 5th, 2012 at 11:44 AM ^
September 5th, 2012 at 12:04 PM ^
New Hampshire @ Minnesota - Minnesota
Penn State @ Virginia (-10) - I think Mike London's Cavaliers are going to be pretty good, and Penn State and the budget version of the Patriots' offense probably do not win this one.
Central Florida @ Ohio (-18) - Ohio wins it, but I don't know about -18 as the line; I would take UCF a little more cautiously than this if I am Ohio and I bring my 1st quarter self to the game.
Indiana @ UMass (+18) - Even Indiana can do this, though I think UMass can double its offensive yards for the season to ... what, like 118 yards?
Iowa State @ Iowa (-5) - I would take -5 after watching Iowa last week, although the Hawkeyes have a strange habit of occasionally losing to Iowa State for inexplicable reasons.
Purdue @ Notre Dame (-14.5) - I'll take ND and that line. Purdue is better than Navy, but I don't think they get past Notre Dame.
Air Force @ Michigan (-21) - Michigan, naturally.
Michigan State @ Central Michigan (+22) - Unless CMU is kicking an FG in the final seconds of a close game, then I think MSU takes this one. That being said, "Fire Up, Chips!"
Wisconsin @ Oregon State (+8) - Wisconsin wins unless Mike Riley can somehow channel Beaver teams of 3 or 4 seasons ago.
Nebraska @ UCLA (+5.5) - If the game comes down to defense, then Nebraska. If Brett Hundley can go "Brett Hundley in the Rice game", then Nebraska has problems but still wins.
Vanderbilt @ Northwestern (+3.5) - If Vanderbilt plays like they did against South Carolina, despite the loss, Vanderbilt, and possibly by more than the line indicates.
Illinois @ Arizona State (-3) - Funny that the line is -3 when ASU lost to them 17-14 last year, oddly enough, but for some reason, I think Illinois will take this one by virtue of better personnel. A 63-6 drubbing of N. Arizona is a difficult game to use as a predictor for ASU.
September 5th, 2012 at 11:46 AM ^
a bead on those teams. May they flail mightily, as always.
September 5th, 2012 at 12:08 PM ^
I think NW and Iowa probably have the toughest matchups other than Purdue. Iowa State and Iowa seems to always be a close game even when Iowa has a heavily favored team. I also think Wisconsin will bounce back and trounce Oregon State. Illinois and ASU will probably be another close one, hopefully Illinois can stomp out traitor Todd's squad.
September 5th, 2012 at 12:20 PM ^
September 5th, 2012 at 12:33 PM ^
I'm going with UNH. Why?
-
Minnesota has lost to FCS teams in the previous 2 years. It's a new tradition of sorts
2010 - lost to South Dakota 41-38
2011 - lost to North Dakota State 37-24 - UNH is ranked #12 in the FCS and #98 in the Sagarin (UNLV is #133)
- Minnesota needed 3OT to beat UNLV last week
- Tire fire
UNH wins 40-37 in OT
September 5th, 2012 at 12:58 PM ^
and their gritty coach have, wierdly, made me a fan of their football team.
September 5th, 2012 at 12:35 PM ^
New Hampshire (Regardless of the line, but I do like Minny to win)
Penn State (I think the loss to OU has created a massive overreaction, PSU could very well win this one)
Ohio (UCF is actually playing a team that has a defense this week, UCF is much better offensively than Miami though - should be close for the first half)
Massachusetts (Depth is a concern for Indiana, but the entire team is a concern for UMass - until I see the Hoosiers blow out a weak non-conference opponent, I'll pick against them)
Iowa (although 5 might be a bit high - the home team has dominated this series)
Notre Dame (I can't remember the last time Purdue beat ND offhand, let alone kept it close)
Michigan (I'm wary of this one, too, but depth should show through in the second half)
Michigan State (CMU simply isn't good, with that said, MSU was less than impressive offensively against Boise - assuming Maxwell doesn't throw three picks, Sparty should roll)
Wisconsin (Line originally opened at 11 and has dropped. I'm thinking this is a massive overreaction to Wisconsin getting by Northern Iowa - a decent FCS program)
Nebraska (If Burkhead doesn't play, all bets are off. Nebraska's defense is the difference in this one, if Burkhead plays)
Northwestern (A true toss up game here. I tend to think Vanderbilt is a better team, but something tells me the Cardiac Cats get the job done)
Arizona State (I was surprised by how dominant Illinois was last week - they contained Carder and forced key INTs - the Illini face the "High Octane Offense" this week, and on the road)
September 5th, 2012 at 1:23 PM ^
| 2007 | Notre Dame | 19 | Purdue | 33 | West Lafayette, IN |
| 2008 | Notre Dame | 38 | Purdue | 21 | South Bend, IN |
| 2009 | Notre Dame | 24 | Purdue | 21 | West Lafayette, IN |
| 2010 | Notre Dame | 23 | Purdue | 12 | South Bend, IN |
| 2011 | Notre Dame | 38 | Purdue | 10 | West Lafayette, IN |
September 5th, 2012 at 1:33 PM ^
Point taken. Still, the Irish have won 4 of the last 5, with 3 of those wins coming by double digits.
September 5th, 2012 at 1:00 PM ^
New Hampshire v. Minnesota: New Hampshire is an FCS school. Don't think it will be a blowout, but Minnesota will win comfortably.
Penn State v. Virginia: So much of how I thought Penn State's season would go hinged on that Ohio game. Had they won, I think they'd be riding a bunch of confidence, go into Virginia and win pretty comfortably. I think now that PSU loses by a touchdown or two, and the team just begins to shut down emotionally.
UCF v. Ohio: Ohio blowout. Miller will be much more comfortable from the get-go than he was last week. Game's over before it starts.
Indiana v. UMass: Rooting for IU, want to see them in a bowl game. I think it will be close, but IU pulls it out. Big confidence builder.
Iowa State v. Iowa: Iowa wins with the home crowd advantage, but barely. I'm not so confident in them after they averted near-disaster last week.
Purdue v. Notre Dame: ND gets a tougher test than they did against Navy, but still win by a touchdown or two.
Air Force v. Michigan: a whole week of frustration and anger is taken out on Air Force. Denard and Toussaint run wild, and Gardner catches a TD or two. UM by 3-4 touchdowns, maybe more. I'm inclined to say that Air Force will be tricky with that triple option, but they are replacing way too much from last year. The defense will be eager to prove themselves after last week.
MSU v. CMU: Hoping for a repeat of 2009, but that's not happening. MSU by a lot.
Wisconsin v. Oregon State: I'm inclined to take the upset pick, as Wisconsin just did not look good at all last week. If they don't improve on last week, I take OSU in an upset.
Nebraska v. UCLA: Nebraska's defense continues to look meh, but Martinez continues to get better too. Nebraska by 10.
Vanderbilt v. Northwestern- I want to pick Northwestern, I really do. But with Vandy almost beating South Carolina, and Northwestern barely squeaking by a mediocre at best Syracuse team, I'm inclined to pick Vandy. I think they win pretty handily, too. Vandy's hung in there with some of the top-tier SEC teams, and in some cases, maybe should have beaten them. Outside of LSU and Alabama, I think Vandy can beat anyone in the SEC. The talent level they will go up against at Northwestern will be a massive drop-off from what they're used to.
Illinois v. ASU: I take Illinois because I hate Todd Graham
September 5th, 2012 at 4:35 PM ^
New Hampshire @ Minnesota - Minnesota
Penn State @ Virginia (-10) - Virginia
Central Florida @ Ohio (-18) - UCF
Indiana @ UMass (+18) - UMass
Iowa State @ Iowa (-5) - Iowa
Purdue @ Notre Dame (-14.5) - Purdue
Air Force @ Michigan (-21) - Air Force
Michigan State @ Central Michigan (+22) - Michigan State
Wisconsin @ Oregon State (+8) - Wisconsin
Nebraska @ UCLA (+5.5) - Nebraska
Vanderbilt @ Northwestern (+3.5) - Northwestern
Illinois @ Arizona State (-3) - Illinois