Big Ten Week Twelve Lines/Over Under Predictions

...4-6 last week.  Really would've liked to see my pick of Penn St / Under come true, but alas.

Minnesota @ Nebraska (-19 +/- 53.5): Minnesota / Over (Please!)
Indiana @ Penn State (-17 +/-55.5): Indiana / Over
Purdue @ Illinois (+7 +/-50.5): Illinois / Over (because I can!)
Northwestern @ Michigan State (-6.5 +/-44): Northwestern / Over
Ohio State @ Wisconsin (-3 +/-52.5): Ohio / Over
Iowa @ Michigan OFF OFF: Michigan / ON (!)

Taking Kansas at -3 v. Michigan State tonight. Seems like an easy pick?

I'm glad I don't gamble. I've been rough at this all year. I'm blaming the Big Ten for sucking so bad as a conference.

I reserve the right to make a pick on the Michigan game when the lines become available, as I can't find the -20 anywhere - I'm still finding OFF at every book I've been able to check online.

For this week, I'm taking:

Nebraska, over - I think this is the week that Nebraska finally blows out a team. They don't want to risk losing and giving Michigan the shot at the Rose Bowl (even though we're totally losing to OSU next week :( ). Nebraska wins easy, 45-17.

Penn State, under - Indiana has almost nothing to play for, and Penn State will come out angry after the questionable officiating last week against Nebraska. Indiana struggles to score in a 38-10 loss.

Purdue, under - Wow. What to say about this game. Two teams who have given up on the season. Nothing to play for but pride on each side, but I can't get over how bad Illinois is. Purdue scores a late TD to win 24-13.

MSU, under - The Spartans need a win here or next week against Minnesota to secure a bowl bid, quite the fall after the pride of the past two seasons. MSU comes off the bye, NW comes off a tough loss with potential injuries to Colter and Mark. I'm saying MSU wins 24-17.

OSU, over - Not sure why Wisconsin would be favored even as the home team. I think OSU is a team on a mission, and though the temptation is for them to look ahead to The Game, they've still got too much for the Badgers to handle. OSU wins convincingly in a somewhat high scoring affair, 44-27.

Minnesota @ Nebraska (-19 +/- 53.5) - From a statistical standpoint, the only thing that Minnesota does better than Nebraska is defend against the run, and the difference is not all that great anyway (10 yards on average per game). I like Nebraska in a 35-14-ish performance.

Indiana @ Penn State (-17 +/-55.5) - Indiana will score on Penn State, but an irritable Penn State will probably be able to muster its far more talented defense and slow them down to a point where Penn State eventually takes control of this game. The Nittany Lions' tendency to have long and drawn out drive almost regardless of opponents might be the only thing holding them back here. I will go with Penn State and a 33-17 or so game.

Purdue @ Illinois (+7 +/-50.5) - If Purdue can handle a down Iowa team, it can definitely handle the smoldering remains of the 2012 Illini. This one has the potential get ugly if Illinois fails to bring the little it has left, but the Illini have just enough on defense to make Purdue Purdue a drive here and there, but not enough. Purdue in a 28-14 performance

Northwestern @ Michigan State (-6.5 +/-44) - Here's an interesting one. Northwestern will definitely not make it easy on State, and I don't doubt we see another week of rolling out Colter in no less than 7 million option looks to test State's ability to contain. That being said, the Spartans still have a top-20 rush defense that might get key stops here and there. I could forsee Maxwell exploiting the Wildcats' Achilles heel - passing defense - for some points as well. It will be close and unfriendly, I am sure. State edges them out in a 27-24 nailbiter.

Ohio State @ Wisconsin (-3 +/-52.5) - Another interesting game. Wisconsin will give the Buckeyes difficulties on defense, but the Badger offense, which struggles to produce more often than not lately, will probably not rack up huge numbers. That being said, the Buckeyes' defense is totally exploitable through the air, something Danny O'Brien can do for a few TDs, I think. Miller and company can out-athlete the Wisconsin defense, however, so this game will likely come down to the 4th quarter with the Buckeyes pulling away in a 33-24-ish game.

Vegas is roughly predicting:

Nebraska 36, Minnesota 17

Penn State 36, Indiana 19

Purdue 29, Illinois 22

Michigan State 25, Northwestern 19

Wisconsin 28, Ohio State 25

I'll take Nebraska (over), Indiana (under), Purdue (over), Northwestern (under), and Wisconsin (over).

5-5 last week, 36-18 overall

Minnesota @ Nebraska (-19 +/- 53.5) - Nebraska, under

Indiana @ Penn State (-17 +/-55.5) - Indiana, over

Purdue @ Illinois (+7 +/-50.5) - Purue, under

Northwestern @ Michigan State (-6.5 +/-44) - Michigan State, over

Ohio State @ Wisconsin (-3 +/-52.5) - Ohio State, over

 

Neb, under. This looks like another 34-13 type loss for the Gophers. I don't think they have the horses to hang with Neb.

PSU, over. Ind will probably be flat and get itself into a big hole against a PSU team in a very bad mood.

Pur, under. Ill can stop itself against anyone, even Purdue's sketchy defense.

NW, under. MSU is incapable of playing a game that's decided by more than 4 points, and as they are MSU I bet the under.

Wisc, over. Wisc will be way, way up for this one.

Mich, under. Iowa hits a new low every week and I don't see them breaking 10. Unless the over/under is 39 or lower, I take the under.

Oregon is going to torch Stanford. Stanford has a great front 7 but a breakdown-prone secondary. Oregon is not going to pile up first downs, but they should get a lot of big plays. Stanford's offense is a Tressel special that cannot keep up in a shootout except against bargain-basement defenses like Arizona's.