Big Ten Week Ten Lines/Over Under Predictions
Week nine lines and over/unders are up and that means MGoBlog's 238947324th best weekly post is back.
Recap (game, who covered, by how much, over/under, by how much):
Michigan State @ Wisconsin: MSU (10.5), under (-2.5)
Iowa @ Northwestern: Northwestern (5), under (-4.5)
Purdue @ Minnesota: Minnesota (19.5), over (+21)
Michigan @ Nebraska: Nebraska (11.5), under (-25.5)
Indiana @ Illinois: Indiana (13), under (-10.5)
Ohio @ Penn State: Ohio (12), over (+8)
Notes: MSU and Minnesota were upsets ATS, Ohio/PSU was a PK.
If you picked last week, see how you did here.
Week Ten (line listed is for the home team):
Illinois @ Ohio (-27.5, +/- 51.5)
Michigan @ Minnesota (+12.5, +/- 46.5)
Penn State @ Purdue (+3.5, +/- 51.5)
Nebraska @ Michigan State (+2, +/- 44)
Iowa @ Indiana (-1.5, +/- 55.5)
I know both Michigan and Penn State looked fairly bad last weekend (and Minnesota looked pretty good...against Purdue), but I don't see any way those games are that close, especially PSU/Purdue. For that matter, the over/under for Ohio/Illinois seems crazy low considering they just put up 35 on one of the three best defenses in conference. That game seems like it will be worse than Ohio/Nebraska was, although Illinois does have a history of playing tough in Columbus against highly ranked Buckeye teams. Like always, what do you say this week, MGoBoard?
October 31st, 2012 at 11:51 AM ^
October 31st, 2012 at 11:54 AM ^
Take Michigan, give the points, and take the under.
October 31st, 2012 at 11:55 AM ^
Michigan did not at all look bad in the first half last week. The defense was good all game, and the offense was quite good until Denard went out.
I assume the risk of Denard being re-injured is baked into that line, because if he goes the whole game we'll win by 21+
October 31st, 2012 at 12:40 PM ^
I thought we showed some promise, but with Denard in we had eight first downs on five drives resulting in six points (including the Bellomy led FG from inside the ten). Denard was doing pretty well (6/11 55yds 5YPA, 9/46 5.1YPC), but the non-Denard playmakers combined for 35 yards on 13 carries. On top of that, this defense was Swiss cheese before this game and let Miller do this to them: 7/14 127 9.1YPA 1TD, 16/186 11.6YPC 1TD, over the course of four quarters
Again, I thought we were on the verge of breaking through, but I don't think our offensive performance was anything to write home about, even with Denard.
October 31st, 2012 at 10:37 PM ^
and the Blackshirts numbers should get even better. Pelini-coached defenses rarely struggle with the pro-style offenses and pocket passer qb's on the remaining schedule. These are men Pelini’s defense is built to harass and smother. See: Kirk Cousins, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, Nick Foles, Colt McCoy etc.
OSU was on the road, & our offense gave them a lot of easy scoring opportunities.
Tough to win a road game in the B1G
November 1st, 2012 at 4:25 PM ^
I wish Fitzgerald's idea of a selection comittee had been something viable; I'd love to play you guys again with a healthy Denard. Not to mention Michigan v. Nebraska II would be a much better football game than Michigan or Nebraska v. Wisconsin or Indiana, which I think either Legends team wins (although Wisconsin did play Nebraska tough in Lincoln).
October 31st, 2012 at 12:05 PM ^
Ill, over. OSU has been playing down to its opponents' level all year, and Ill has just been stinking it up. I usually pick the dog when the spread is that big.
Mich, under. I don't see the Gophers getting more than 10 here.
PSU, under. They're much better than Purdue is.
Neb, under. Neb's defense did ok against Wisc, and MSU's offense is an inferior version of Wisc. And as it's an MSU game, always bet the under. Always.
Ind, under. Iowa has been bad the past 2 weeks, and Ind wasn't playing that badly even when they were losing every week.
October 31st, 2012 at 12:07 PM ^
Maybe its wishful thinking but Nebraska beat State last year (in fact they crushed them) and I am hoping for State to exact some revenge for last year. Go uh State I guess
October 31st, 2012 at 1:59 PM ^
Just another example of how these divisions are ruining the rivalries and history of the Big Ten.
October 31st, 2012 at 3:55 PM ^
If the divisions didn't exist, and instead we were tied for first in the conference with Nebraska at 3-1, with MSU sitting back at 2-3, would we not still be rooting for Sparty?
October 31st, 2012 at 9:00 PM ^
I do believe you are correct.
October 31st, 2012 at 12:08 PM ^
October 31st, 2012 at 12:10 PM ^
Sorry for OT but Allen Trieu just tweeted '#Michigan Fans-Stay tuned.'
Conley? New 2013 development? 2014 committment?
October 31st, 2012 at 12:14 PM ^
WR Da'Mario Jones. What does this say about Conley?
Maybe someone can create a post for me?
-Per Allen Trieu
October 31st, 2012 at 12:20 PM ^
OSU, over - Illinois is an extremely bad team. OSU should beat the over by themselves. Going with a blowout win 56-17.
Michigan, under - Like post-InterceptionFest, they're going to reel in Denard quite a bit, this time to keep him healthy for the tougher games ahead. The offense suffers, but the defense isn't thrown into the situation last week where they're always on the field in the second half. Michigan wins 27-13.
PSU, under - I can't decide whether this game is high scoring (Purdue gave up 40+ to Minnesota) or low scoring (Purdue did hold OSU under 30). Purdue shouldn't put up too many points, so I think PSU plays it a bit more conservatively on offense. PSU wins convincingly 28-10.
MSU, under - This should be a tough, close, low-scoring game. MSU won't give up much, and after the way Nebraska throttled them last year, I see MSU exacting some revenge. MSU close, 17-13.
Indiana, under - Seeing Indiana favored in a conference game is the weirdest thing. However, they control their own destiny in the Leaders dividion (win out and it's on to Indianapolis), and against a struggling Iowa team they should pick up a win to start a furious close to the schedule. Indiana wins 34-24.
October 31st, 2012 at 12:33 PM ^
Illinois @ Ohio (-27.5, +/- 51.5) Illinois / over OSU 49 Ill 3
Michigan @ Minnesota (+12.5, +/- 46.5) minnesota / under Mich 23 minn 14
Penn State @ Purdue (+3.5, +/- 51.5) PSU / under PSU 27 Pur 19
Nebraska @ Michigan state (+2, +/- 44) Mich St / under MSU 16 Neb 13
Iowa @ Indiana (-1.5, +/- 55.5) Ind / under Ind 27 Iowa 24
November 2nd, 2012 at 8:13 AM ^
You have Illinois covering a 27.5 point spread while losing by 46?
October 31st, 2012 at 12:34 PM ^
October 31st, 2012 at 12:48 PM ^
given the demographics up in Gopher-land.
October 31st, 2012 at 6:49 PM ^
11-1 last week
Illinois @ Ohio (-27.5, +/- 51.5) - Ohio State, under
Michigan @ Minnesota (+12.5, +/- 46.5) - Minnesota, over
Penn State @ Purdue (+3.5, +/- 51.5) - Penn State, under
Nebraska @ Michigan state (+2, +/- 44) - Michigan St, Under
Iowa @ Indiana (-1.5, +/- 55.5) - Indiana , Over
Edit... Meant MSU, Under. Not Nebraska, Under.
October 31st, 2012 at 12:58 PM ^
...8-4 last week
Illinois @ Ohio (-27.5, +/- 51.5) Ohio / Under
Michigan @ Minnesota (+12.5, +/- 46.5) Michigan / Over
Penn State @ Purdue (+3.5, +/- 51.5) Penn St / Under
Nebraska @ Michigan state (+2, +/- 44) MSU / Over
Iowa @ Indiana (-1.5, +/- 55.5) Indiana / Under
October 31st, 2012 at 1:44 PM ^
Here is what Vegas is (approximately) predicting:
Ohio State 40, Illinois 12
Michigan 30, Minnesota 17
Penn State 28, Purdue 24
Nebraska 23, Michigan State 21
Indiana 28, Iowa 27
Here are my picks: Ohio State, over; Michigan, under; Penn State, under; Michigan State, under; Indiana, over.
October 31st, 2012 at 6:26 PM ^
Illinois @ Ohio (-27.5, +/- 51.5) - Ohio and the over. The Buckeyes offense tops several metrics in the conference, and I don't see the Illinois defense being able to get many great stops against their rushing attack. That, and as bad as the Buckeye defense is statistically, it may give up a TD, but against an incoherent offense, that should be about all.
Michigan @ Minnesota (+12.5, +/- 46.5) - Michigan and the under, but slightly so. I think we can handle Minnesota with a rested defense definitely, and with Denard back, it will be a defense that will get rest in the game too more than like. It might be a conservative game for us on offense, but we still can get it done and be assured that, as much as folks have talked about our offense, Minnesota's is less prolific than ours.
Penn State @ Purdue (+3.5, +/- 51.5) - Penn State and the under. For some reason, I've begun to respect what Bill O'Brien has done with that offense, and it is more cohesive than Purdue's certainly. I think also that Penn State has the defense to stop the TerMarve.
Nebraska @ Michigan state (+2, +/- 44) - MSU and the under. Nebraska averages nearly 40 points per game, and this will not happen against MSU's defense, I think. They'll get held to maybe half of that at most. That being said, if MSU had a lot of weapons on offense, Nebraska wouldn't necessarily be equipped to stop them, but alas, MSU makes that far simpler by not having that many weapons. A similar,Wisconsin-esque performance for MSU perhaps.
Iowa @ Indiana (-1.5, +/- 55.5) - Indiana and the under. It has been a long time since I could say that I see Indiana actually having a reasonable shot against a team like Iowa, but as Iowa has been...something...this year, I could see Indiana's rather potent offense giving Iowa fits, and conversely, Iowa's offense not giving a bad Indiana defense much to worry about, which is saying something.
November 1st, 2012 at 8:20 AM ^
I won't try to guess all of those possible picks but two that stand out to me:
PSU -3.5: That line is WAAAYYYY too low for a Purdue team that has already been blown out at home by UM and Wisco. Easy money right there.
MSU vs. Nebraska Under 44.0: Take the under in any game with MSU if the total is 40+. I don't care if they are playing WVU, take the under. UM's defense held Nebraska to 17 points (the first two FG of the 2nd half were not generated by UN's offense...total of 7 yards gained) in Lincoln. MSU's game against OSU only hit 33 and they should have little trouble holding the Huskers to no more than 20. Again, easy money.
November 1st, 2012 at 3:40 PM ^
Oiho/Over (Oiho 56-14) - Neither team has much of a defense; Illinois has neither a defense nor an offense.
Mich//Under (Mich 27-13) - Our offense is way out of whack, so what should be a blow out is a relatively close game. I like our D to preserve a narrow cover.
PSU/Under (PSU 20-14)
MSU/Under (MSU 16-13)
Indiana/Over (IU 39-34)
November 1st, 2012 at 3:46 PM ^
So-so week for me last week. 2-4 ATS, 4-2 O/U = 6-6 overall.
1. Illinois @ Ohio (-27.5, +/- 51.5)
Illinois is 2-6 ATS, including 0-3 on the road. The Illini have looked to pack it in for the year. I'll take Ohio to cover and the over.
2. Michigan @ Minnesota (+12.5, +/- 46.5)
Looking at the numbers makes this pick against conventional wisdom (Minnesota 4-1 ATS at home, Michigan 1-3 ATS road). With that said, give me Michigan to cover and the under.
3. Penn State @ Purdue (+3.5, +/- 51.5)
Nittany Lions are 3-0 ATS in road games. Must win game for Purdue, as they very well could be short the minimum six wins for bowl eligibility. Penn State to cover and the under.
4. Nebraska @ Michigan State (+2, +/- 44)
I've gone back and forth on this one. I think Nebraska is the more balanced team, but Sparty has the better defense. The situational numbers for both teams are dreadful - Nebraska 0-3 ATS road, Michigan State 0-5 ATS home. Spartans haven't hit the over at home this season, either. Give me Michigan State with the points and the under.
5. Iowa @ Indiana (-1.5, +/- 55.5)
When I see a line that is completely unexpected, I usually stay away from it. I tend to think Iowa is the better team, but the Hoosiers are coming off a big road win (hey, when you are IU any road win is big, right?) and must beat Iowa in order to have a shot at being bowl eligible. Oh and Indiana controls their own destiny for the Leaders Division. I'll take the over and reluctantly take Iowa with the points.
November 2nd, 2012 at 9:41 AM ^
I know we haven't shown it the past few weeks but I think this will be the week the offense gets clicking again going into the home stretch of the season. I'm going to say 45-7.