Big Ten Week Eight Lines/Over Under Predictions

Wisky and the over,

Purdue and the over, Purdue could win this outright. OSU has trouble with them. Upset special right here

Michigan and the under. I don't think MSU can put up points with us

Northwestern and the over. Nebraska's D ain't stoppin anybody

Indiana and the Over, if they can put up 49 on OSU, they'll score on Navy

Minnesota @ Wisconsin (-17.5 +/-45)
Wisconsin is rolling now. Wisky & over.

Purdue @ Ohio (-14.5 +/- 62)
Purdue's d has turned out to be as stout as a block of moldy swiss cheese, as has OSUs. OSU & over.

Michigan State @ Michigan (-10.5 +/-45)
MSU and under. Will be a 7 point game with the good guys on top.

Nebraska @ Northwestern (+7 +/- 62
Dunno what to make of this one. NW could pull it off again. NW and over.

Indiana @ Navy (-3.5 +/-56.5)
Indiana should be able to put up points. Indy and over.

What about the Penn State - Iowa (I'm seeing Iowa -3, 42.5 o/u) game? Anyway,

Wisconsin, over - Wisconsin's ground game is starting to round into form, so they should be able to hang up some points on Minnesota. Minnesota will add some to the total, but I'm thinking Wisconsin wins something like 35-14.

Ohio, over - There will be points a plenty with Ohio's offense and defense, but Purdue doesn't have enough on offense to threaten like Indiana did. OSU wins 52-24.

MSU, under - Dantonio and Narduzzi know how to slow down this offense, but don't have the horses to move the ball themselves. Close, defensive slugfest, but Michigan ultimately prevails 17-10.

Nebraska, over - Northwestern still doesn't know how to play defense, and Nebraska has struggled against spread teams in their short B1G history. Nebraska has a bit too much talent for Northwestern in this one, and wins 38-28.

Indiana, over - Navy is a really bad team this year, even though they held on to beat Air Force. Indiana will put up a lot of points, and so does Navy, but not enough. Indiana wins 42-34.

Penn State, under - Penn State has been putting up some points this year as Bill O'Brien's gone for broke without a kicker, and Iowa's defense has struggled a bit. With Weisman looking to be out, Iowa's offense won't move the ball. Penn State wins big, 31-10.

My picks are Minnesota, Ohio, Michigan, Nebraska, and Indiana. I would also take the 'Over' on all of them, defense be damned!

I'll take Wiscy by 4

Ohio by 9

Michigan by 12(wouldn't touch that line though)

Nebraska by 7(also wouldn't touch)

Indiana by 5

Am I the only one having a hard time discerning which teams are favored from OP?

 - It is sort of interesting that Minnesota and Wisconsin are right there with each other in both passing and rushing offense, so I could see this being actually a competitive game, at least for a bit. That being said, Wisconsin's defense, I believe, is a little more competent than Minnesota's, and I can see Minnesota being slowed down as the game drags on, and some part of me would take Wisconsin by a hair over the line.

- Purdue outthrows the Buckeyes by an average of about thirty yards per game, but OHIO is the better team on the ground. That being said, Miller is actually a more efficient QB through the air than the TerBush / Marve machine. Purdue's rushing offense, as we know, is bad, and Fickell has done much to ensure that the Buckeyes are bad at defending the pass, so I forsee another shootout potentially, but I would probably take Meyer's team, assuming the meeting about actually having a defense went well.

- I could honestly see us winning this game simply by the sheer ability to produce on offense, so that line is pretty realistic to me. If we stop Bell and can maintain air supremacy, if you will, on defense, the Spartans would be hard-pressed to score more than a few times. A steady diet of Dilithium, Rawls, Fitz and others could eventually wear down an MSU defense that struggles to bring pressure. Michigan here.

- On the ground, Nebraska and Northwestern are just about the most prolific teams in the conference, and indeed, Nebraska actually gives up a lot more rushing yards on average than Nebraska, so I could even see the Wildcats winning at some point in the game. Nebraska is better in the air, and good at stopping teams through the air, whereas Northwestern sort of blows at both of these. It's a relatively high-scoring affair, but I'd take Nebraska.

- Indiana being Indiana, and Navy being towards the bottom of many defensive stats just like Indiana (yet, better than the Buckeyes in some respects statistically), I think the Hoosiers could cover here. They score about 35 points per game as it is and are pretty dangerous on offense, particularly in the air, something which Navy cannot say even though they occasionally go with the "run and shoot" style (a drive or two per game, good enough to average 116 yards passing).

The over is a gimme.  My over/under for a game with those two defenses is a cool hundred.

I really should've started betting, I've been guessing right, lol

Wisconsin. I expect them to put up less than 30, though. Minnesota does have serviceable defense. and Minnesota to put up around 15 again. I'd say under.

Definitely going with Ohio over Purdue. Their defense is suspect after Marshall tagged them for 41, but then again, so is Ohios. Ill say Over. Ohio by at least 21

I expect us to beat State in an uncharachtaristic fashion. We are absolutely rolling on defense, and Borges is playing the safer route with Denard after the ND game. Ohio held them to 16, Iowa to 13 in regulation, and ND held them to 3. We're better than those defenses right now. Barring turnovers its possible we shut them out at home. Definitely over. I'll say 24-0

Nebraksa Northwestern is a tossup. Northwestern has one of the "better" B1G defenses this year, Ohio got tagged for 49 by Indiana, Northwestern only allowed 29 from Indiana. State allowed 27 from Indiana, ect. South Carolina allowed 17 from Vandy, Florida allowed 17 from Vandy, Northwestern allowed 13 from Vandy, ect. They both run a similar offense, so Northwestern may have an edge on defense. I'll say Northwestern does Wisconsin 1 better and edges Nebraska at home in a close game. 30-28. Under

Indiana Air Raid beats Navy in a shootout. Similar game to the Ohio game they just played. Something like 65-20. Wayy Over.

against MSU, and some. The MSU defense is nowhere near the caliber it was last year (unless someone else is seeing something I am not on Saturdays). They are not as disruptive. The loss of Worthy definitely hurt and Gholston is not exactly the heir apparent (11 solo tackles and 1 sack on the season). And then there is the issue with their offense which, at best, is average, and that is only when it shows up. I am looking at the defenses they played and the best one is ND. State scored 3 points against ND and I think our D is just as good as, if not better than, ND is. Against Iowa and OSU, the two other decent Ds, MSU managed to score 16. I think MSU scores 10-13 max against us. Now, if our D gets hot and starts rolling (i.e. Illinois game) then I am thinking a field goal, maybe a lucky TD. On D, as I said, I don't see them as dominant as last year. First, I don't see much in their secondary that can deal with the height/size of Funchess/Gardner. Funchess at 6'5"/230 and Gardner at 6'4" 205 are big targets that are difficult to cover. I see Funchess and Gardner getting double-teamed in games and they still get the jump ball for TDs. If the line can give Denard enough protection, and can get Rawl, Fitz, Smith a little bit of running room (enough for 3/4 yards per carry) I think Michigan will roll. I know it is a rivalry, so anything can happen, but it is at the Big House, MSU is down this year, our D is looking like it is coming into its own, and it's payback time. I am thinking 24-10.

sports betting follows a bit of a pattern. public bettors are usually prone to bet favorites because they're obviously the better team. also overs are favored by the public usually.

that said the lines this week are large and i feel a little bit too large. do you really want a wisconsin team to need to cover more than TD/TD/FG against ANY B1G team? i certainly don't. i like minnesota in that one.

purdue/osu is similar. osu has struggled to put teams away, even mediocre ones. i understand purdue has been poor recently, but hope is not a quitter and they do not have a history of quitting on him. again, that line is huge. osu could score 60 and still not cover this game. i'm not taking them by three scores against anybody.

kevin wilson is doing a good job at indiana but they're without their early qb and just played the game of their lives. we've seen what service academies can do. give me navy and that very valuable .5

as far as our game is concerned i have a rule that i never take a double digit rival favorite in a game where the underdog is treating it as their season. granted, sparty could take 15 penalties and get absolutely housed, but i do not like michigan's side here. i think it's a stay away.

if there's a game that might have some value on the favorite i feel it's nebraska/northwestern. i feel northwestern is still being overvalued a bit. their secondary is prone to disaster and nebraska hasn't struggled to score points this year.

that said, bottom line, give me the dogs purdue/navy/minnesota. stay away from michigan. go with nebraska and the 7. if the nebraska line moves off the 7 i'm hitting hard one way or the other. if it bumps to 7.5 i'm teasing it like crazy and if it drops to 6.5 i'm tripling down on it.

Minnesota @ Wisconsin (-17.5 +/-45)

Wisconsin and the Over.  No gopherquest this year but not ready to contend with the big boys yet.

Purdue @ Ohio (-14.5 +/- 62)

Ohio and the under.  62 is way too many points right.

Michigan State @ Michigan (-10.5 +/-45)

Michigan and the under.  Looking at a 42-0 win for the good guys

Nebraska @ Northwestern (+7 +/- 62

Nebraska and the under.  We will see how good NW is or how bad Neb is.

Indiana @ Navy (-3.5 +/-56.5)

Indiana and the over.   Triple option is hard to defend but IU puts enough on the board.

Penn State @ Iowa (-3 +/-41)

Penn State and the under.  Gotta root for the ineligible team against a division opponent.

we do not have as good a defense as notre dame. we have a better secondary, but they have a much better front seven. and they have manti t'eo, arguably the best lb in college football. its the only reason they're undefeated right now.

Minnesota @ Wisconsin (-17.5 +/-45) - Minnesota, Over

Purdue @ Ohio (-14.5 +/- 62) - Ohio State, Under 

Michigan State @ Michigan (-10.5 +/-45) - Michigan State, Under

Nebraska @ Northwestern (+7 +/- 62) - Northwestern, Over

Indiana @ Navy (-3.5 +/-56.5) - Indiana, Over

Penn State @ Iowa (-3 +/-41) - Iowa, Over

Minnesota @ Wisconsin (-17.5 +/-45)

Minnesota and the under.

Purdue @ Ohio (-14.5 +/- 62)

Ohio and the under.

Michigan State @ Michigan (-10.5 +/-45)

Michigan and the under.

Nebraska @ Northwestern (+7 +/- 62)

Northwestern and the under.

Indiana @ Navy (-3.5 +/-56.5)

Indiana and the under.

Penn State @ Iowa (-3 +/-41)

Iowa and the over.

MN v WI: Wisconsin 31-14 sounds about right. I might take the Gophers and the under but if there's one game to avoid this is it.

Pur v OSU: I like OSU and the over. OSU's defense is awful but Purdue has really gone off the rails (pun intended) and I don't see them fixing things in the Shoe.

MSU v Mich: The spread is about right, something like 20-10 or 21-10 may be most likely. I recommend taking the under and not picking a team, but if I had to pick one I guess M.

Neb v NW: NW is getting 7 points at home against a terrible road team? Bet the ranch on NW and take the over. Neb's defense is a bad joke.

Ind v Navy: Ind's defense is awful and they will struggle to defend Navy's option, but I don't think Navy has the athletes to punish them with big plays and they'll still have to string long drives together, some of which will sputter out. Ind should be able to shred Navy's undermanned D. Take the Hoosiers and the over.

PSU v Iowa: Looks like another close, low-scoring game. I'd take the under and PSU. If Iowa wins, it will probably be by 3. PSU has a decent shot to win.

Minnesota@ Wisconsin (-17.5 +/-45)

   Minnesotaand the over, too much to cover

Purdue @ Ohio (-14.5 +/- 62)

   Ohioand the over, can’t believe Ohio’s D is a tire fire.

MichiganState @ Michigan (-10.5 +/-45)

   Sparty and the under, close game

Nebraska@ Northwestern (+7 +/- 62)

   Nebraskaa nd the under, think UNL turns it around

Indiana@ Navy (-3.5 +/-56.5)

   IU and the over, no defense here

PennState @ Iowa (-3 +/-41)

   Iowa and the under, this line stinks.  Take the stink

This is approximately what Vegas is predicting:

Wisconsin 31, Minnesota 14

Ohio State 38, Purdue 24

Michigan 28, Michigan State 17

Nebraska 35, Northwestern 28

Navy 30, Indiana 27

Iowa 22, Penn State 19

The only one that looks off to me is Navy and Indiana. I'll take Indiana against the spread and the over in that one. I'd also take the over in the Ohio State game.

Nebraska is favored by 5, not by 7

Minnesota @ Wisconsin (-17.5 +/-45)

I'm leaning toward Wisconsin, but not sure I'd put money on them covering. However, I'd totally take the over.

I doubt OSU covers the spread. Out of 7 games they've only covered it twice when favored to win... That spread is perfect, gives the team something to shoot for. 

My picks

OSU, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Iowa, Michigan (plz, this is the only time I will pull for Michigan, beat Sparty) 

I think Ohio game could be closer