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Big Ten Tourney Mich/Wisky Predictions

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March 15th, 2013 at 8:54 AM
#1
goblue85
Joined: 08/23/2011
MGoPoints: 842
Big Ten Tourney Mich/Wisky Predictions

Michigan plays today at 230 pm ESPN against Wisconsin.   This is game number two on the revenge tour.  I think Burke and the boys will gut one out today and get the win.   This game we need to transition a lot as I hate playing Wisky's pace.   If we score seventy today will win.   Let's go get it today. 

 

Michigan 66

Wisconsin 59

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March 15th, 2013 at 8:56 AM
#2
Bill the Butcher
Bill the Butcher's picture
Joined: 09/23/2012
MGoPoints: 2944
(No subject)

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March 15th, 2013 at 9:01 AM
#3
jdon
jdon's picture
Joined: 09/28/2009
MGoPoints: 5402
I like it.

Michigan by 7 sounds good... too good to be true.

I would imagine we win by 5 or less.  Secretly I hope we beat them by a miracle half court shot, but that's just me.

 

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March 15th, 2013 at 9:06 AM
(Reply to #4) #4
APBlue
APBlue's picture
Joined: 01/07/2011
MGoPoints: 21898
I love where your head's at,

I love where your head's at, winning by a half court shot.  That's awesome.  We could then watch as Bo Ryan's head exploded.  

I'll go with 74-66.  I feel like Michigan's going to put a run together and can't be stopped.  Wisconsin is going to have to play a little more of Michigan's pace today.  

 

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March 15th, 2013 at 12:38 PM
(Reply to #4) #5
Tater
Tater's picture
Joined: 08/13/2008
MGoPoints: 30564
No, thanks...

I want to save the miracle half-court shot for a game in the Final Four.  Then again, the basketball gods haven't yet paid the Wolverines back for the Evan Turner prayer.  Michigan has two miracle shots coming.

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March 15th, 2013 at 1:41 PM
(Reply to #52) #6
APBlue
APBlue's picture
Joined: 01/07/2011
MGoPoints: 21898
That's true.  I think it's

That's true.  I think it's time for Michigan basketball to make a withdrawal from the Bank of Karma.  We've made plenty of deposits over the past few years.  

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March 15th, 2013 at 9:02 AM
#7
not TOM BRADY
not TOM BRADY's picture
Joined: 06/02/2012
MGoPoints: 23275
...

We got PSU yesterday, Wisconsin is today and Indiana is next Then we will beat down MSU in the final. REDEMPTION.

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March 15th, 2013 at 9:05 AM
#8
rob6reid
rob6reid's picture
Joined: 01/08/2012
MGoPoints: 16
88-25 Michigan.

88-25 Michigan.

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March 15th, 2013 at 9:10 AM
#9
An Angelo's Addict
An Angelo's Addict's picture
Joined: 07/12/2011
MGoPoints: 7314
We must break them

We must break them

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March 15th, 2013 at 9:38 AM
(Reply to #11) #10
sammylittle
sammylittle's picture
Joined: 09/29/2008
MGoPoints: 4225
My prediction is pain

For Wisconsin.

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March 15th, 2013 at 9:20 AM
#11
Jskohl88
Jskohl88's picture
Joined: 03/25/2011
MGoPoints: 478
I'll be there (cool story

I'll be there (cool story bro) to cheer on our boys. I say we win on a half court shot... Just kidding. Lets bring the PAIN



GO BLUE

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March 15th, 2013 at 9:20 AM
#12
LSAClassOf2000
LSAClassOf2000's picture
Joined: 01/07/2011
MGoPoints: 81431
Today's Table And Prediction...

Here's today's table of possible outcomes first. Massey didn't have updated numbers, so these probabilities are from TeamRankings, which usess a slightly different algorithm.




Illinois / Indiana Wisconsin / Michigan OSU / Nebraska MSU / Iowa ESTIMATED PROB. ON SATURDAY…
0.13 0.52 0.93 0.69 4.338% Illinois / Wisconsin OSU / MSU
0.13 0.52 0.93 0.31 1.949% Illinois / Wisconsin OSU/ Iowa
0.13 0.52 0.07 0.69 0.327% Illinois / Wisconsin Nebraska / MSU
0.13 0.52 0.07 0.31 0.147% Illinois / Wisconsin Nebraska / Iowa
0.13 0.48 0.93 0.69 4.004% Illinois / Michigan OSU / MSU
0.13 0.48 0.93 0.31 1.799% Illinois / Michigan OSU/ Iowa
0.13 0.48 0.07 0.69 0.301% Illinois / Michigan Nebraska / MSU
0.13 0.48 0.07 0.31 0.135% Illinois / Michigan Nebraska / Iowa
0.87 0.52 0.93 0.69 29.031% Indiana / Wisconsin OSU / MSU
0.87 0.52 0.93 0.31 13.043% Indiana / Wisconsin OSU/ Iowa
0.87 0.52 0.07 0.69 2.185% Indiana / Wisconsin Nebraska / MSU
0.87 0.52 0.07 0.31 0.982% Indiana / Wisconsin Nebraska / Iowa
0.87 0.48 0.93 0.69 26.797% Indiana / Michigan OSU / MSU
0.87 0.48 0.93 0.31 12.039% Indiana / Michigan OSU/ Iowa
0.87 0.48 0.07 0.69 2.017% Indiana / Michigan Nebraska / MSU
0.87 0.48 0.07 0.31 0.906% Indiana / Michigan Nebraska / Iowa
        100.000%    

The line on the game is Michigan -3, which I admittedly sort of like. Here's a familiar scenario where, on offense, we are the more capable team in most metrics. Our effective FG% in the conference is 53.1%, compared to 46.9% for WIsconsin. We also average 12 points more per game than they do for scoring, and we even have a slight edge in offensive rebounding as well as assists.

On defense, we give up 1.02 PPP to Wisconsin's 0.91, and we allow opponents an effective FG% of 49.0% to Wisconsin's 42.0%, so I would think that we need to use what we did in the 2nd half yesterday as a model. Get into that same rhythm and try to avoid having Wisconsin bog us down in that half-court game that works so well for them. Stretching the defense to the perimeter would help as well. On a neutral court, if we can keep in motion and limit easy 3's from the Badgers, I can see Michigan edging this one out, but perhaps not by much. I'll go with 65-60-ish and we survive to Saturday. 

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March 15th, 2013 at 9:21 AM
#13
Don
Don's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 70421
68-67

Michigan.

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March 15th, 2013 at 9:44 AM
(Reply to #14) #14
bluewave720
bluewave720's picture
Joined: 07/17/2009
MGoPoints: 2969
I think the score may be a little lower,

but I agree with Michigan by 1-2 points.

I'll go Michigan 60-59.

I also predict that McGary is going to have another big game.

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March 15th, 2013 at 9:26 AM
#15
Soulfire21
Soulfire21's picture
Joined: 03/18/2010
MGoPoints: 14528
63-56 Michigan

63-56 Michigan

Just saw Massey's win probabilities for the game, they give Michigan a 65% chance of winning and like a 67-63 final score.

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March 15th, 2013 at 9:29 AM
#16
andben
andben's picture
Joined: 03/17/2012
MGoPoints: 604
100-0 Michigan

100-0 Michigan

Trey Burke with 99

Vogrich with 1

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March 15th, 2013 at 9:30 AM
#17
AriGold
Joined: 02/28/2013
MGoPoints: 732
MCIHIGAN 76

Wisco 63

 

ON TO INDIANA for the 3-peat-re-match tri-fecta!!!! (trying not to look ahead, but i can't!)

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March 15th, 2013 at 9:32 AM
(Reply to #17) #18
Gobgoblue
Joined: 07/07/2012
MGoPoints: 14740
Maybe I'm missing a joke

but that is quite an interesting sig.  

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March 15th, 2013 at 9:50 AM
(Reply to #19) #19
AriGold
Joined: 02/28/2013
MGoPoints: 732
my signature...

the show Entourage, Ari Gold/Jeremy Piven has a reputation for blowing up on people and has some funny one-liners, my signature being one of them...you would have to watch the show to understand why the quote is so funny and how it is directed at Johnny Drama (another show character)

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March 15th, 2013 at 9:58 AM
(Reply to #31) #20
Gobgoblue
Joined: 07/07/2012
MGoPoints: 14740
makes much more sense now

thanks for the explanation.  You didn't seem like a troll, so I should have guessed your sig was a joke/reference of some sort.  Looks like you're only a few weeks old . . .  Welcome to the MGoBoard!

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March 15th, 2013 at 12:54 PM
(Reply to #34) #21
AriGold
Joined: 02/28/2013
MGoPoints: 732
haha, thanks!

i've been reqading this blog for over a year and decided to finally join in the conversations!

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March 15th, 2013 at 2:24 PM
(Reply to #43) #22
justingoblue
justingoblue's picture
Joined: 11/16/2010
MGoPoints: 29685
Ari had a JD/MBA from Michigan...

and an undergrad degree from Harvard (they seemed to imply Economics the one or two times it was brought up).

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March 15th, 2013 at 9:31 AM
#23
Gobgoblue
Joined: 07/07/2012
MGoPoints: 14740
Two predictions:

Trey Burke and THJ will be composed, but ANGRY during this game.  We will win by about 4-9.  

Or Wisconsin will take three point shots from 40 feet and go 11/12.

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March 15th, 2013 at 9:33 AM
#24
Naked Bootlegger
Naked Bootlegger's picture
Joined: 01/28/2011
MGoPoints: 15454
56-53

56-53 Blue.

I still think Wisconsin controls the pace in this one.   But I choose to be optimistic and predict a close win.   I'll change my mind if I see an all-red figure with horns and goatee sipping a hot drink behind the Wisconsin bench and whispering in Bo Ryan's ear during TV timeouts.

 

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March 15th, 2013 at 11:08 AM
(Reply to #20) #25
Soulfire21
Soulfire21's picture
Joined: 03/18/2010
MGoPoints: 14528
So, Bo Ryan is Barry (large

So, Bo Ryan is Barry (large guy on the left).  This is how I picture him being in cahoots with Satan.

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March 15th, 2013 at 11:29 AM
(Reply to #46) #26
Naked Bootlegger
Naked Bootlegger's picture
Joined: 01/28/2011
MGoPoints: 15454
Yup...exactly how I envision

Yup...exactly how I envision Bo Ryan's relationship with the Dark Lord.  Great find.

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March 15th, 2013 at 9:38 AM
#27
LIhockey24
LIhockey24's picture
Joined: 08/13/2011
MGoPoints: 173
60-56 good guys.

60-56 good guys.

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March 15th, 2013 at 9:42 AM
#28
DingoBlue
Joined: 02/21/2012
MGoPoints: 1328
My Prediction

I will be angry at Bo Ryan whenever ESPN shows his face.

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March 15th, 2013 at 9:43 AM
#29
Bluemandew
Joined: 11/18/2010
MGoPoints: 1397
I predict I will be

I predict I will be frantically updating the game thread trying to glean any info I can as to how the game is going. 2:30 game start work starts at 3:00 evil!

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March 15th, 2013 at 9:43 AM
#30
SysMark
SysMark's picture
Joined: 11/15/2008
MGoPoints: 13936
victory

how or by how much I care not...just win and move on

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March 15th, 2013 at 9:43 AM
#31
dc22
dc22's picture
Joined: 07/11/2012
MGoPoints: 894
I see that quite a few of us

I see that quite a few of us want to avenge for the half court shot. I personally don't want the game to come down to that.
How about a compromise? Spike is dribbling out the clock near half court with us up 17 and a 3 second differential between the shot and game clock, he puts it up from half court to avoid a shot clock violation, it goes in and we win by 20 - Now that would really make Bo Ryan's head explode!

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March 15th, 2013 at 9:44 AM
#32
Sambojangles
Sambojangles's picture
Joined: 12/15/2008
MGoPoints: 3234
67-64 Michigan. No half-court

67-64 Michigan.

No half-court shot for the tie this time.

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March 15th, 2013 at 9:46 AM
#33
ontarioblue
ontarioblue's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 16035
Same as yesterday,

Just win!

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March 15th, 2013 at 9:52 AM
#34
CLord
CLord's picture
Joined: 09/11/2011
MGoPoints: 7035
GR3 reminds me of a poor

GR3 reminds me of a poor man's Tracy McGrady.  McGrady was turrible his first 1-2 years and then really came on.  We need GR3 to come on big, like now man.  Too passive, not aggressive enough rebounding, misses too many 3s and free throws.

The athleticism is there, but he needs to step it up if we are going to go deep in this tourney.

UM by 1 on a missed Wisc half court shot.

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March 15th, 2013 at 9:55 AM
#35
WillRussJohn
WillRussJohn's picture
Joined: 12/30/2011
MGoPoints: 35
"Just Win Baby"

I have been waiting waaaaaay too long to get rid of this empty feeling

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March 15th, 2013 at 10:00 AM
#36
MGoManBall
MGoManBall's picture
Joined: 10/27/2012
MGoPoints: 12251
Michigan 59 Wisconsin

Michigan 59

Wisconsin 55

 

Oh, did you guys know that Stauskas isn't just a spot up shooter?

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March 15th, 2013 at 12:27 PM
(Reply to #35) #37
Generic MGoBlogger
Generic MGoBlogger's picture
Joined: 09/02/2012
MGoPoints: 3546
Are

you Dan Dakich?

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March 15th, 2013 at 10:01 AM
#38
urbanachiever
urbanachiever's picture
Joined: 01/16/2010
MGoPoints: 2272
Whiskey prediction: Michigan

Whiskey prediction: Michigan loss will result in much being consumed

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March 15th, 2013 at 10:08 AM
(Reply to #36) #39
DingoBlue
Joined: 02/21/2012
MGoPoints: 1328
That will be happening for me

Whichever way the game turns out.

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March 15th, 2013 at 10:15 AM
#40
party like its 1989
party like its 1989's picture
Joined: 04/05/2009
MGoPoints: 1682
Real Question is

How many points are we going to spot them before we come roaring back for the win?

 

I think we spot them only 6 in the early going, and then we'll end up winning 64-52.

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March 15th, 2013 at 10:31 AM
#41
EZ Bud
Joined: 01/04/2011
MGoPoints: 732
I like our chances today. Let

I like our chances today. Let me throw this out there for discussion: No B1G teams have played in the United Center for at least a year or two. It's always tough to calibrate to a new gym and start getting into a groove with respect to shooting. I think teams that won yesterday are going to have a huge advantage in the first 10-15 minutes of the second round games. Hopefully Michigan can get out to a quick start and step on Wisconsin's throat while they are acclimating to the shooting lines in the United Center.

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March 15th, 2013 at 10:32 AM
#42
ontarioblue
ontarioblue's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 16035
2 hours of frustration

watching Wisconsin score 45 points in a 47-45 win.

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March 15th, 2013 at 10:35 AM
#43
urbanachiever
urbanachiever's picture
Joined: 01/16/2010
MGoPoints: 2272
Other than a Michigan win of

Other than a Michigan win of course, the thing I want to see the most today is another Ryan Evans jumpshot free throw

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March 15th, 2013 at 11:38 AM
(Reply to #41) #44
Naked Bootlegger
Naked Bootlegger's picture
Joined: 01/28/2011
MGoPoints: 15454
Any stats on Evans after jumpshooting?

Does anyone know if the jumpshooting routine has worked for Evans? 

EDIT:   According to Madison newspapers, he started jumpshooting FT's in the late season Nebraska game, so that makes him 5/8 jumpshooting for a 62.5% FT rate.  Not a strong sample size, but he has improved his season FT % to 42% due to his jumpshot.  And he's shooting 8.7% from beyond the 3 point line.

 

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March 15th, 2013 at 10:39 AM
#45
oriental andrew
oriental andrew's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 19806
I was out of town on business

I was out of town on business for 3 days this week, got home late last night.  One of the first things my wife told me was that she bought me a 6 pack of Guinness.  She knows nothing about beer (hates it, in fact), but got this one oh-so-right.  Good omen.  Michigan wins this one comfortably, 68-59.

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March 15th, 2013 at 10:43 AM
#46
lilpenny1316
lilpenny1316's picture
Joined: 11/19/2009
MGoPoints: 28802
64-53 Michigan

I have to believe that they want another crack at Indiana and that will motivate them to come out more aggressive at the start and commit to solid defense.  I don't know if the coaching staff ever plays up the revenge factor but I would whatever it takes to get the intensity to match the talent.

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March 15th, 2013 at 11:06 AM
#47
MGoClimb
MGoClimb's picture
Joined: 07/31/2012
MGoPoints: 5581
A Michigan win. 61-58.

A Michigan win. 61-58.

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March 15th, 2013 at 11:58 AM
#48
gwkrlghl
gwkrlghl's picture
Joined: 04/13/2012
MGoPoints: 71
We win 124-19

Trey Burke sinks a full court buzzer beater just for the hell of it as time expires. Bo Ryan explodes

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March 15th, 2013 at 12:26 PM
#49
Generic MGoBlogger
Generic MGoBlogger's picture
Joined: 09/02/2012
MGoPoints: 3546
Not

playing at Wisky will definitely help... We get it done 68-61.

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March 15th, 2013 at 12:44 PM
#50
WestVirginia Wo...
Joined: 01/12/2013
MGoPoints: 845
Don't forget

To vote for Trey at www.woodenawardvote.com

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March 15th, 2013 at 12:45 PM
#51
backtoblu
Joined: 09/04/2012
MGoPoints: 316
Michigan, but I think it will

Michigan, but I think it will be low scoring and physical.  Going to rely on some of the bigger guys here. 

 

UM 56, UW 51.

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March 15th, 2013 at 1:07 PM
#52
SurfsUpBlue
Joined: 09/01/2011
MGoPoints: 838
Wisky sinks a buzzer beater

to bring them within 30 points of Michigan.

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March 15th, 2013 at 1:13 PM
#53
WestVirginia Wo...
Joined: 01/12/2013
MGoPoints: 845
UM 54 Wis 49

UM 54

Wis 49

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