Big Ten Tourney Mich/PSU Predictions

Submitted by goblue85 on

Michigan plays Penn St today at roughly 230 BTN and Gus Johnson is back on the call today.   I think Burke and THJ will get a roll and get the win today.   Just take it one game at a time and beat Penn State today.  

 

Michigan 81

Penn St 68

mGrowOld

March 14th, 2013 at 9:30 AM ^

Anybody who says they know is a lying sack of poop.  This team has the ability to KILL PSU and absolutely should.  The also have recently demonstrated that disinterest in rebounding & defense means they have the ability to lose to PSU.  I have no clue which team will show up this afternoon but HEY....all season people have been hanging their hat on the "we're undefeated on neutral courts" hook so this should be an easy win right?

All I know is that I'm nervous and I shouldnt be.  We should be watching the games today from the safety of our #2 seed first round bye.......

Indiana Blue

March 14th, 2013 at 9:31 AM ^

will struggle from the field (Chicago Stadium not a shooters arena).  Michigan hits 18 of its 22 freethrows and wins 65 to 56.

B1G tournay needs to be in Indy.  Basketball only arena - all bars and hotels are walking distance (like right across the f'ing street).  Indy also assigns "team" bars so you can find your "real" friends.  Sorry but Chicago is NOT an NCAA town.  

Go Blue!

 

IndyBlue90

March 14th, 2013 at 10:28 AM ^

As a naptown resident I can tell you that it is surprisingly even in downtown during the tournament. Indy is such an easy city to travel to that the hometown thing doesn't play out as much as you think.

Indiana Blue

March 14th, 2013 at 12:41 PM ^

is that the bars are not right across the street from the arena in Chicago.  Suck down that last one and walk 5 minutes and be in your seat.

Don't get me wrong I love Chicago (when the weather's warm) - but for the B1G Tourney Indy is just better.  IU has NEVER won the B1G Tourney, so being in Indy has never helped them so far ...

Go Blue!

Maize Judicata

March 14th, 2013 at 9:33 AM ^

Michigan comes out in a funk and falls behind by 10 early. Michigan rallies to keep it close but loses 71-66.

LSAClassOf2000

March 14th, 2013 at 9:49 AM ^

I constructed a table with the Massy estimates for each game similar to what UMHoops did for tournament seeding - due to its size, the thumbnail link is below:

Photobucket

So, in the most likely scenario, Michigan would live to see Wisconsin, and indeed, according to Massey, we have a 93% probability of doing so. 

I would think that we win this game on a neutral court - looking quickly at the overall stats comparison, we definitely have the offense to beat Penn State by a comfortable margin, but we actually stack up similarly on defense to Penn State by the numbers (Link to StatSheet comparison - conference-only defense, so you can see the similarities).

I think we pull it out, but maybe it isn't the 8 or 9 possession drubbing that some sites are estimating. I will go with 75-68-ish in favor of the Wolverines. 

SurfsUpBlue

March 14th, 2013 at 9:53 AM ^

I think the significance of the tournement will provide sufficient team focus for at least 80% of the game.  That should be enough for Michigan to win by at least ten points.

Soulfire21

March 14th, 2013 at 10:03 AM ^

76-70

Our lack of interest in rebounding and playing defense will keep Penn State in the game, but we close out with a strong offensive performance.  Admittedly I have weighted Penn State's recent performance significantly higher, but they have been playing much better -- winning at home vs. us, @Northwestern, and losing to a good Wisconsin team on a last-minute shot 63-60.  They aren't the pushover they looked like for 3/4 of the season.

dc22

March 14th, 2013 at 10:11 AM ^

I think THJ is going to be the key both on the offensive and defensive ends. I think it will be around a 10 point win for Michigan.

switch26

March 14th, 2013 at 10:23 AM ^

Neutral court, i feel PSU crumbles...  They have no advantage in this one being away from home.  We should beat them easily, but then again..

mGrowOld

March 14th, 2013 at 10:36 AM ^

You're right but I find it kinda funny that people are talking about a "home court advantage" at Penn State.  If you've never been there picture Crisler circa 2001 with about 5,000 people in the stands and maybe 100-150 students tops.  

The Bryce-Jordan Center is about as intimidating place to play as your basic intermural gym. The environment today will be about the same as it was for the game a couple of weeks ago-a largely empty, quiet place.

Zok

March 14th, 2013 at 10:39 AM ^

UM won at home 79-71 in a game where Burke kept the team afloat in the first half.

UM lost on the road in a must win 84-78.

PSU is just not good at D so I think UM will get to 75. The question is can UM keep PSU under 75?

being a homer (but much less than most on here) I'll say 75-73 UM win. UM will get out rebounded yet again and PSU will hit more 3's than us do to successful drives and kicks.

UM eeks it out riding Burke all the way... a couple timely 3s from Stauskas and THjr will help.

Perkis-Size Me

March 14th, 2013 at 11:08 AM ^

Until they start putting up some defensive rebounding and play better overall defense, the team has done nothing lately to prove to me it can blow anyone out. Penn State will play yet again like it has nothing to lose, and it wouldn't shock me to see them have the lead for parts of this game, maybe even win it. A lot of it depends too on how much of a hangover we're suffering from Sunday.

Don't know who wins or loses. It's just going to be close. Penn State knows it can beat us, and you know they'll come out fired up.

gwkrlghl

March 14th, 2013 at 12:03 PM ^

I think we can win, but Penn State has been playing really well lately. They nearly beat Wisconsin last week and then kept it really close in road game at Michigan and at Illinois before that. They definitely aren't playing like a 2-16 B1G team right now...

Michigan wins 83-80 in OT

jaylee714

March 14th, 2013 at 12:26 PM ^

We have a chance to avenge our losses all in a row here. Michigan will come out a team on a mission. Penn State, Wisconsin, Indiana all will go down. If we play Michigan State in the Championship we win, if we play OSU, we lose.

Michigan 73
Penn State 59

backtoblu

March 14th, 2013 at 7:15 PM ^

Hey, that one wasn't too bad!  At least got the 66 right.

 

I would say dominated for the last 10-15 minutes for sure.  No comment before that.