redwings8831

March 7th, 2013 at 11:36 AM ^

Each row is one of the 32 possible combinations that can occur. For a given row, the first five columns are winners of the remaining games and the last five columns are the Big Ten tournament seed each team would get in that scenario.

MGoSteelers

March 7th, 2013 at 12:45 PM ^

Seeding probabilities for Michigan (assuming every game is 50/50 and independent):

1st: 0/32 = 0%

2nd: 6/32 = 18.75%

3rd: 8/32 = 25%

4th: 10/32 = 31.25%

5th: 8/32 = 25%

Overall expected seed: (0/32)(1) + (6/32)(2) + (8/32)(3) + (10/32)(4) + (8/32)(5) = 3.625

 

 

Overall expected seed of other teams:

Indiana: (27/32)(1) + (3/32)(2) + (2/32)(3) + (0/32)(4) + (0/32)(5) = 1.21875

Ohio State: (1/32)(1) + (14/32)(2) + (9/32)(3) + (7.5/32)(4) + (0.5/32)(5) = 2.765625

Wisconsin: (4/32)(1) + (6/32)(2) + (5/32)(3) + (5.5/32)(4) + (11.5/32)(5) = 3.453125

Michigan: (0/32)(1) + (6/32)(2) + (8/32)(3) + (10/32)(4) + (8/32)(5) = 3.625

Michigan State: (0/32)(1) + (3/32)(2) + (8/32)(3) + (9/32)(4) + (12/32)(5) = 3.9375

OmarDontScare

March 7th, 2013 at 11:41 AM ^

The thing about Wisconsin, is that they can beat anyone and also lose to anyone. Fewer possessions = less margin for error. This is a team that just got housed by the same Purdue team we just played. And it was in Madison.

I think they'll win but it's not a lock by any stretch.

MichiganMan2424

March 7th, 2013 at 11:34 AM ^

Very nice to see this all in one spot. We can't get the 1 seed no matter what, but it seems like our most realistic shot at the 2 is for MSU to beat Wisco and Illinois to beat OSU, with us beating Indiana obviously. I think MSU will win tonight, so asuming we beat Indiana, it all comes down to Illinois upsetting OSU @ OSU. Possible, but I wouldn't bet on it.

UMFan1780

March 7th, 2013 at 11:35 AM ^

UM needs to take care of business against IU, because it would take a big upset in the other games for UM to get the first round bye (either NW would have to beat Sparty, or PSU would have to beat Wisky).

M-Wolverine

March 7th, 2013 at 11:41 AM ^

When it's been discussed in basically every thread on here, including showing that grid?  But actually having the grid up at the top of a dedicated post is a good idea just to prevent people asking the question a thousand times today.

the Bray

March 7th, 2013 at 11:58 AM ^

If Michigan ties IU for first, IU wins every tie-breaker.  Head to head is even at 1-1, so they move to record against third place team, then fourth place team, etc.   Both are 0-1 againt Wisconsin, both are 1-1 against OSU, but IU is 2-0 vs MSU and Michigan is 1-1.  So they get the higher seed.

Same principle if there is a third or fourth team involved with the tie for first.  Michigan just can't get past IU based on tie-breakers.

the Glove

March 7th, 2013 at 11:53 AM ^

Very good work, there's a chance. Things have tended to go Michigan's way this season, except for the part about controlling their own destiny.

Muttley

March 7th, 2013 at 1:09 PM ^

2013 B1G Tourney Seed Determination Inputs

TEAM GM2 GM1 IU UM OSU MSU WIS MN ILL IA PU
#2 Indiana -- @UM -- 1-0 1-1 2-0 0-1 1-1 0-1 2-0 2-0
#7 Michigan -- IU 0-1 -- 1-1 1-1 0-1 1-0 2-0 2-0 2-0
#14 Ohio State -- ILL 1-1 1-1 -- 1-1 1-1 1-0 0-1 1-0 1-0
#10 Michigan State WIS NW 0-2 1-1 1-1 -- 1-0 1-1 1-0 1-0 2-0
#22 Wisconsin @MSU @PSU 1-0 1-0 1-1 0-1 -- 1-1 2-0 1-1 0-1

Blue indicates a game remaining

http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/100606aae.html

Muttley

March 7th, 2013 at 1:27 PM ^

OSU & Wiscy tied for fourth place below a three-way UM-IU-MSU tie can be explained as follows:

Rule 1:  OSU & Wiscy split their games against each other.

Rule 2.Step 1: Against the first place finishers, OSU would be 3-3; Wiscy 2-2

Rule 2.Step 2: The next comparison would be against the seventh place finisher(s), Illinois (a given in this scenario), and Minny & Iowa provided each win over @Purdue and Nebraska, respectively.

Muttley

March 7th, 2013 at 1:39 PM ^

OSU would be 0-2 against Illinois, versus 2-0 for Wiscy

Minny & Iowa joining the tie would both help OSU, but not enough to catch Wiscy.

Against that three-way group for sixth place, Wiscy would be 4-2 while OSU 2-2.

Maybe the chart was created before Minny lost to Almeida Sauce and the Huskers last night?  Before the loss, Minny had a chance to take sixth all by themselves at 10-8.

ijohnb

March 7th, 2013 at 11:54 AM ^

We are either going to have a bye or a first round game that we will undoubtedly win, a quarter-final against a Minnesota-ish team that we should beat but ya never know, a semi-final against a really good team with a 50 % chance of victory, and with a victory, a death match against Indiana (or possibly OSU but unlikely) in the BIG touney final.

PB-J Time

March 7th, 2013 at 12:08 PM ^

I also have doubts about beating PSU because...well...nm

But I also have to correct you on the next line. A likely scenario is MSU in the quarters (4-seed vs 5-seed assuming favorites win 1st round)...there no easy scenarios here. Assuming victory on Sunday is unwise. I hope for the best but we will be playing a great team.

I would like to get some revenge off Wisky...but those games are painful to watch

Muttley

March 7th, 2013 at 12:59 PM ^

And then they celebrate having ruined your day.

An old Russian joke tells the story of a peasant with one cow who hates his neighbor because he has two. One day the peasant found an old bottle next to his single cow. He opened the bottle up and out came a genie. The genie thanked him for letting him out and told the peasant that he would be granted one wish.

The peasant thought about it for a moment, and then responded, "I wish that both of my neighbor's cows would die".