LSAClassOf2000

March 7th, 2013 at 12:06 PM ^

I was counting on the screen and came up with 32 distinct scenarios:

SEED Indiana Ohio St. Wisconsin Michigan Michigan St.
1 84.38% 3.13% 12.50% 0.00% 0.00%
2 9.38% 43.75% 18.75% 18.75% 9.38%
3 6.25% 28.13% 15.63% 25.00% 25.00%
4 0.00% 25.00% 15.63% 31.25% 28.13%
5 0.00% 3.13% 37.50% 25.00% 37.50%

I wasn't quite sure how to approach the tie that takes place in one scenario, so the 4th and 5th seed numbers for Ohio State and Wisconsin are italicized to denote admitted approximation on my part (hence, they total more than 100%).

LATE EDIT: The table above is indeed the coin-flip scenario - thanks those who pointed it out. I meant to add more but hit "Save" prematurely and lost some stuff by compounding the problem and exiting Excel and lost the Massey-adjusted table.

Here are the Massey estimates -

Taking into account Massey's predictive probabilities, which give us an estimated 55% chance at beating Indiana, for starters, we can find the most probable scenario based on the OP's table.

Further, Michigan State has superb odds against Wisconsin and Northwestern (74% and 95% respectively), and Ohio State has an estimate 83% chance of beating Illinois. Wisconsin also has 83% against PSU per that algorithm. Taking that into consideration, the scenario in which Indiana beats us, MSU wins out, and Wisconsin and Ohio State both win is overall the most likely based on his estimates.

So, it would be, in that case, Indiana at #1, Ohio St. at #2, MSU at #3, Wisconsin at #4 and Michigan as the #5 seed under those assumptions, I believe.

Joined: 01/07/2011

MGoPoints: 130610

SeattleWolverine

March 7th, 2013 at 12:20 PM ^

Those % are kinda interesting but basically meaningless since they assume a 50/50 chance of each outcome. So MSU pops up at 37.5% chance of a #5 but in 2/3rd of those scenarios they will have lost at home to NW which is like 2% chance of happening. If you weight them for probable outcomes it does not look pretty for Michigan if we do happen to lose Sunday.

Joined: 11/07/2012

MGoPoints: 4047

LSAClassOf2000

March 7th, 2013 at 1:27 PM ^

Here is the table I meant to post which uses the Massey numbers. I basically switched out the winner with the estimated probability of winning, so the essential arrangement of the data did not change. I didn't include the seeding scenario side just because I didn't want to do the entire thing again, but here would be the probabilities based on the OP's table:

WISC. / MSU MICH / IND. MSU / NW WISC. / PSU OSU / ILL. LIKELIHOOD OF SCENARIO IN OP'S TABLE
0.26 0.55 0.05 0.17 0.17 0.021%
0.26 0.55 0.05 0.17 0.83 0.101%
0.26 0.55 0.05 0.83 0.17 0.101%
0.26 0.55 0.05 0.83 0.83 0.493%
0.26 0.55 0.95 0.17 0.17 0.393%
0.26 0.55 0.95 0.17 0.83 1.917%
0.26 0.55 0.95 0.83 0.17 1.917%
0.26 0.55 0.95 0.83 0.83 9.359%
0.26 0.45 0.05 0.17 0.17 0.017%
0.26 0.45 0.05 0.17 0.83 0.083%
0.26 0.45 0.05 0.83 0.17 0.083%
0.26 0.45 0.05 0.83 0.83 0.403%
0.26 0.45 0.95 0.17 0.17 0.321%
0.26 0.45 0.95 0.17 0.83 1.568%
0.26 0.45 0.95 0.83 0.17 1.568%
0.26 0.45 0.95 0.83 0.83 7.657%
0.74 0.55 0.05 0.17 0.17 0.059%
0.74 0.55 0.05 0.17 0.83 0.287%
0.74 0.55 0.05 0.83 0.17 0.287%
0.74 0.55 0.05 0.83 0.83 1.402%
0.74 0.55 0.95 0.17 0.17 1.117%
0.74 0.55 0.95 0.17 0.83 5.456%
0.74 0.55 0.95 0.83 0.17 5.456%
0.74 0.55 0.95 0.83 0.83 26.636%
0.74 0.45 0.05 0.17 0.17 0.048%
0.74 0.45 0.05 0.17 0.83 0.235%
0.74 0.45 0.05 0.83 0.17 0.235%
0.74 0.45 0.05 0.83 0.83 1.147%
0.74 0.45 0.95 0.17 0.17 0.914%
0.74 0.45 0.95 0.17 0.83 4.464%
0.74 0.45 0.95 0.83 0.17 4.464%
0.74 0.45 0.95 0.83 0.83 21.793%

So, there it is - this is the scenario where Indiana is #1, OSU is #2, MSU is #3, Wisconsin is #4 and we are #5. The next most likely, under these assumptions, would be Indiana as #1, OSU as #2, us as the #3 seed, MSU as #4 and Wisconsin at #5.

Joined: 01/07/2011

MGoPoints: 130610

SeattleWolverine

March 7th, 2013 at 1:54 PM ^

Just eyeballing those numbers it looks like about an 8% chance of both losing to Indiana and getting the first round bye. Most of that is from the scenario where WI loses to MSU and PSU. Otherwise, it is pretty much beat Indiana or else we have to play on Thursday against PSU.

 

Didn't check how Kenpom's % vary from the Massey #s you used but I know we are 44% against Indiana on kenpom and Massey has it as 45% so it sounds like perhaps they are pretty similar.

Joined: 11/07/2012

MGoPoints: 4047

OmarDontScare

March 7th, 2013 at 12:29 PM ^

I'm really looking forward to the postseason due to the neutral court and other factors that bode well for a team like ours. We are 20-0 in home/neutral games this year. The tourney format helps us in a number of ways: 1. Young team should perform much better when not in a raucous environment. PSU is the one glaring exception but look at all of our other losses this year (OSU, IND, MSU, WISC) - all but two games (WISC, PSU) we came out of the gates shell shocked and couldnt recover enough to pull out the W. Early games in the NCAA tourney are known for being quiet. Lots of corporate seats and split allegiances. 2. Guard play - a common theme to college basketball observers is that guard play is what wins in March. We have the best backcourt in the nation and i dont think any unbiased person would disagree. I don't know if there are statistics to back this up but I'd love to see them if someone has them. 3. Officiating - If it's true that officials start to call clutching/hand checking in the tournament, then this is an absolute advantage for Michigan. Burke is unstoppable when they call these fouls and it would open up the lane for him to penetrate and dish. Let's hope this holds true (re: officiating changes) and I think it will as many in the media (Bilas especially) have been calling for this all year. This young team has learned some hard lessons and had some adversity. I think all of their experiences could add up to a big run in the NCAA Tourney especially with how wide open it is this year but I'm a glass half-full guy admittedly

Joined: 08/13/2010

MGoPoints: 1800

MaizeyBlue

March 7th, 2013 at 1:12 PM ^

What could prove to be interesting is if Michigan St and Michigan both get placed at The Palace.  I know there will be an afternoon session and evening session, but carry over fans from both teams will gladly cheer for whichever directional school we are playing.

Joined: 09/25/2009

MGoPoints: 516

Paps

March 7th, 2013 at 12:32 PM ^

So, I guess that what we want to happen is at least a 3 seed, which means if we win against IU, and MSU beats wisconsin, and everyone else wins like they are supposed to, then We grap a 3 seed.  

Joined: 09/29/2012

MGoPoints: 2239

champswest

March 7th, 2013 at 12:40 PM ^

I don't really care that much about the B1G tournament seed or outcome (other than how it affects our NCAA seed).  Not much difference in a 4 or 5 seed other than having to play an extra game.

Looks like we are going to be a #3 if we beat IU and a #5 if we don't.

Joined: 10/04/2009

MGoPoints: 25916

ehatch

March 7th, 2013 at 12:39 PM ^

Using Pomeroy's pythagorean number I come up with the following percentages for Michigan

1 Seed - 0% chance

2 Seed - 4% chance

3 seed - 17.5% chance

4 seed - 16.5% chance

5 seed - 62%

Joined: 09/25/2008

MGoPoints: 1938

SeattleWolverine

March 7th, 2013 at 1:41 PM ^

Appreciate the numbers but that looks a bit off. Kenpom has us with a 44% chance of beating Indiana and if we beat Indiana there is no scenario where we are the #5 seed. So we have at least a 44% chance of being higher than a #5 seed and no more than a 56% chance of being a #5 seed but you are listing us at 62%. Doesn't follow logically.

 

Perhaps you just took the pythag numbers and came up with a lower win % against Indiana based on that w/o accounting for home court? Not sure what else might be the issue.

Joined: 11/07/2012

MGoPoints: 4047

Cali Wolverine

March 7th, 2013 at 12:51 PM ^

...but kind of odd that IF we beat IU, Michigan would have best "overall" record of any BIG team (IU has that pesky loss to Butler) and would be highest ranked BIG team in polls...and at best would only get a 2 or 3 seed in BIG tourney...just shows you how ridiculous BIG is this year...going to be glued to tv for this conference tourney and am very jealous of any fellow mgobloggers that are going!

Joined: 01/13/2013

MGoPoints: 21755

lilpenny1316

March 7th, 2013 at 12:53 PM ^

1. Beat PSU on Friday by 20 points.

2. Beat Wisky on Saturday, with no possibility of late game heroics.

3. Beat Indiana for the second straight Sunday.

4. We get the #1 seed in the Midwest.

Sparty gets shifted to a different sub regional.

I'll live only numbers 3 and 4 happen!

Joined: 11/19/2009

MGoPoints: 61787

Doctor Wolverine

March 7th, 2013 at 1:23 PM ^

Thanks for putting this together. Fun to look at the various scenarios. Here is my NCAA tourney question: would we be better off as a #1 seed playing outside the Midwest, or a #2 seed playing at The Palace? Maybe we can get both, but if not, I would rather be the #2 seed playing at The Palace as it would be closer to a home game environment.

Joined: 08/13/2009

MGoPoints: 3045

redwings8831

March 7th, 2013 at 1:51 PM ^

Michigan (or any B1G team) can not be the #2 in the Midwest if IU is the #1. There is a rule that the first three teams from a conference must be placed in three different regions. Now that IU has slipped up a little and there are some projections with Kansas as the #1 in Midwest, you may start seeing more having a B1G as the #2.

Joined: 03/04/2009

MGoPoints: 3413

OmarDontScare

March 7th, 2013 at 3:32 PM ^

PSA- As long as Michigan is a top 4 seed we will be playing at the Palace. Translation - Michigan will play at the Palace. Come on guys. I know we haven't been great at basketball in awhile but lets try to at least act the part. The round of 16 and 8 are reflective of the regional bracket you're in (South, Midwest, etc). The first two rounds are pod-based which means that the NCAA will place top 4 seeds in a location that is closest in proximity to them. So, hypothetically Michigan could be a #2 seed in the West and MSU could be a #2 seed in the South and they will both play their first two rounds at the Palace.

Joined: 08/13/2010

MGoPoints: 1800