via umhoops - Updated after Wisconsin/MSU
colorful - and if I really stare at it, I see a 3-D dinosaur in an F-14.
What exactly is this telling us?
Each row is one of the 32 possible combinations that can occur. For a given row, the first five columns are winners of the remaining games and the last five columns are the Big Ten tournament seed each team would get in that scenario.
So we basically have a 75% chance to not be a 5 seed assuming all games are a 50/50 chance.
We basically need Wisconsin or MSU to lose their remaining 2 games, or we need to beat Indiana to be ensured a 4 or better.
Seeding probabilities for Michigan (assuming every game is 50/50 and independent):
1st: 0/32 = 0%
2nd: 6/32 = 18.75%
3rd: 8/32 = 25%
4th: 10/32 = 31.25%
5th: 8/32 = 25%
Overall expected seed: (0/32)(1) + (6/32)(2) + (8/32)(3) + (10/32)(4) + (8/32)(5) = 3.625
Overall expected seed of other teams:
Indiana: (27/32)(1) + (3/32)(2) + (2/32)(3) + (0/32)(4) + (0/32)(5) = 1.21875
Wisconsin: (4/32)(1) + (6/32)(2) + (5/32)(3) + (5.5/32)(4) + (11.5/32)(5) = 3.453125
Michigan: (0/32)(1) + (6/32)(2) + (8/32)(3) + (10/32)(4) + (8/32)(5) = 3.625
Michigan State: (0/32)(1) + (3/32)(2) + (8/32)(3) + (9/32)(4) + (12/32)(5) = 3.9375
My sarcasm detector is off this morning. Help?
Basically, if we lose Sunday, odds are us being the 5... I just don't see Wisconsin losing to Penn State or Staee losing to NW
The thing about Wisconsin, is that they can beat anyone and also lose to anyone. Fewer possessions = less margin for error. This is a team that just got housed by the same Purdue team we just played. And it was in Madison.
I think they'll win but it's not a lock by any stretch.
Very nice to see this all in one spot. We can't get the 1 seed no matter what, but it seems like our most realistic shot at the 2 is for MSU to beat Wisco and Illinois to beat OSU, with us beating Indiana obviously. I think MSU will win tonight, so asuming we beat Indiana, it all comes down to Illinois upsetting OSU @ OSU. Possible, but I wouldn't bet on it.
UM needs to take care of business against IU, because it would take a big upset in the other games for UM to get the first round bye (either NW would have to beat Sparty, or PSU would have to beat Wisky).
I hate the fact that I have to root for Staee in these scenarios.
it will bother Staee to no end that their winning will work to our benefit.
What? If NW beats Sparty we are pretty much assured of a first round bye, which is more important than a 2-4 seed.
Why use words when pictures can explain it all? Thanks for your work.
and then everyone can stop whining k thx
When it's been discussed in basically every thread on here, including showing that grid? But actually having the grid up at the top of a dedicated post is a good idea just to prevent people asking the question a thousand times today.
if we beat IU? :)
This is great. Easy to digest in this format. Thanks!
Basically: beat Indiana, or get a 4 or 5 seed.
Thanks for the post. No sarcasm.
I don't understand why we can't be the #1 seed? someone please explain...why does Indiana get the tiebreaker
If Michigan ties IU for first, IU wins every tie-breaker. Head to head is even at 1-1, so they move to record against third place team, then fourth place team, etc. Both are 0-1 againt Wisconsin, both are 1-1 against OSU, but IU is 2-0 vs MSU and Michigan is 1-1. So they get the higher seed.
Same principle if there is a third or fourth team involved with the tie for first. Michigan just can't get past IU based on tie-breakers.
Gotcha! That's some shit
...but why does Ohio edge us if we beat IU (and State and Ohio win out)...Ohio and Michigan split and both would be 2-2 against IU and State. What other factors figure into the tie breaker? Thanks!
Very good work, there's a chance. Things have tended to go Michigan's way this season, except for the part about controlling their own destiny.
It amazes me that the most likely team for the #1 not named Indiana is Wisconsin. WTF?!?!?!
damn hail mary 3 <grumble><grumble><grumble>
|#14 Ohio State||--||ILL||1-1||1-1||--||1-1||1-1||1-0||0-1||1-0||1-0|
|#10 Michigan State||WIS||NW||0-2||1-1||1-1||--||1-0||1-1||1-0||1-0||2-0|
Blue indicates a game remaining
Wiscy would be 3-1 in the four team round robin
Thanks for the info. Am I still allowed to despise everything about the way they play the game?
OSU & Wiscy tied for fourth place below a three-way UM-IU-MSU tie can be explained as follows:
Rule 1: OSU & Wiscy split their games against each other.
Rule 2.Step 1: Against the first place finishers, OSU would be 3-3; Wiscy 2-2
Rule 2.Step 2: The next comparison would be against the seventh place finisher(s), Illinois (a given in this scenario), and Minny & Iowa provided each win over @Purdue and Nebraska, respectively.
OSU would be 0-2 against Illinois, versus 2-0 for Wiscy
Minny & Iowa joining the tie would both help OSU, but not enough to catch Wiscy.
Against that three-way group for sixth place, Wiscy would be 4-2 while OSU 2-2.
Maybe the chart was created before Minny lost to Almeida Sauce and the Huskers last night? Before the loss, Minny had a chance to take sixth all by themselves at 10-8.
It was. Wisconsin should win that 4/5 tiebreaker with OSU now that Minnesota lost to the Huskers.
We are either going to have a bye or a first round game that we will undoubtedly win, a quarter-final against a Minnesota-ish team that we should beat but ya never know, a semi-final against a really good team with a 50 % chance of victory, and with a victory, a death match against Indiana (or possibly OSU but unlikely) in the BIG touney final.
"first round game that we will undoubtedly win"
Well we are 1-1 against Penn State, so I think there would be a bit of doubt there.
I also have doubts about beating PSU because...well...nm
But I also have to correct you on the next line. A likely scenario is MSU in the quarters (4-seed vs 5-seed assuming favorites win 1st round)...there no easy scenarios here. Assuming victory on Sunday is unwise. I hope for the best but we will be playing a great team.
I would like to get some revenge off Wisky...but those games are painful to watch
If MSU wins tonight then it looks like Indiana is the 1 seed.
It seems like every time I want State to win, they lose. They are just useless.
And then they celebrate having ruined your day.
An old Russian joke tells the story of a peasant with one cow who hates his neighbor because he has two. One day the peasant found an old bottle next to his single cow. He opened the bottle up and out came a genie. The genie thanked him for letting him out and told the peasant that he would be granted one wish.
The peasant thought about it for a moment, and then responded, "I wish that both of my neighbor's cows would die".
So you're saying that if given the chance MSU would wish our cows to die so they could have the only cow?
For some odd reason I think that joke fits perfectly on so many levels.
...a 2 or 3 seed.
I was counting on the screen and came up with 32 distinct scenarios:
|SEED||Indiana||Ohio St.||Wisconsin||Michigan||Michigan St.|
I wasn't quite sure how to approach the tie that takes place in one scenario, so the 4th and 5th seed numbers for Ohio State and Wisconsin are italicized to denote admitted approximation on my part (hence, they total more than 100%).
LATE EDIT: The table above is indeed the coin-flip scenario - thanks those who pointed it out. I meant to add more but hit "Save" prematurely and lost some stuff by compounding the problem and exiting Excel and lost the Massey-adjusted table.
Here are the Massey estimates -
Taking into account Massey's predictive probabilities, which give us an estimated 55% chance at beating Indiana, for starters, we can find the most probable scenario based on the OP's table.
Further, Michigan State has superb odds against Wisconsin and Northwestern (74% and 95% respectively), and Ohio State has an estimate 83% chance of beating Illinois. Wisconsin also has 83% against PSU per that algorithm. Taking that into consideration, the scenario in which Indiana beats us, MSU wins out, and Wisconsin and Ohio State both win is overall the most likely based on his estimates.
So, it would be, in that case, Indiana at #1, Ohio St. at #2, MSU at #3, Wisconsin at #4 and Michigan as the #5 seed under those assumptions, I believe.
It got cut off but the Wisc/OSU 4/5 tiebreaker goes to Wisconsin if Minnesota lost either one of their remaining two games, which happened last night.
Those % are kinda interesting but basically meaningless since they assume a 50/50 chance of each outcome. So MSU pops up at 37.5% chance of a #5 but in 2/3rd of those scenarios they will have lost at home to NW which is like 2% chance of happening. If you weight them for probable outcomes it does not look pretty for Michigan if we do happen to lose Sunday.
Of course, that assumes that all of the games are tossups. Since most of the teams that would help Michigan to a higher seed are underdogs, the chance of us ending up on the 5 line is probably significantly greater than 25%.
You can't do that, your data is assuming every game is a coin flip. A perfect example of GIGO.
Here is the table I meant to post which uses the Massey numbers. I basically switched out the winner with the estimated probability of winning, so the essential arrangement of the data did not change. I didn't include the seeding scenario side just because I didn't want to do the entire thing again, but here would be the probabilities based on the OP's table:
|WISC. / MSU||MICH / IND.||MSU / NW||WISC. / PSU||OSU / ILL.||LIKELIHOOD OF SCENARIO IN OP'S TABLE|
So, there it is - this is the scenario where Indiana is #1, OSU is #2, MSU is #3, Wisconsin is #4 and we are #5. The next most likely, under these assumptions, would be Indiana as #1, OSU as #2, us as the #3 seed, MSU as #4 and Wisconsin at #5.
Just eyeballing those numbers it looks like about an 8% chance of both losing to Indiana and getting the first round bye. Most of that is from the scenario where WI loses to MSU and PSU. Otherwise, it is pretty much beat Indiana or else we have to play on Thursday against PSU.
Didn't check how Kenpom's % vary from the Massey #s you used but I know we are 44% against Indiana on kenpom and Massey has it as 45% so it sounds like perhaps they are pretty similar.
Just win, baby.
I'm really looking forward to the postseason due to the neutral court and other factors that bode well for a team like ours. We are 20-0 in home/neutral games this year. The tourney format helps us in a number of ways:
1. Young team should perform much better when not in a raucous environment. PSU is the one glaring exception but look at all of our other losses this year (OSU, IND, MSU, WISC) - all but two games (WISC, PSU) we came out of the gates shell shocked and couldnt recover enough to pull out the W.
Early games in the NCAA tourney are known for being quiet. Lots of corporate seats and split allegiances.
2. Guard play - a common theme to college basketball observers is that guard play is what wins in March. We have the best backcourt in the nation and i dont think any unbiased person would disagree. I don't know if there are statistics to back this up but I'd love to see them if someone has them.
3. Officiating - If it's true that officials start to call clutching/hand checking in the tournament, then this is an absolute advantage for Michigan. Burke is unstoppable when they call these fouls and it would open up the lane for him to penetrate and dish. Let's hope this holds true (re: officiating changes) and I think it will as many in the media (Bilas especially) have been calling for this all year.
This young team has learned some hard lessons and had some adversity. I think all of their experiences could add up to a big run in the NCAA Tourney especially with how wide open it is this year but I'm a glass half-full guy admittedly
What could prove to be interesting is if Michigan St and Michigan both get placed at The Palace. I know there will be an afternoon session and evening session, but carry over fans from both teams will gladly cheer for whichever directional school we are playing.
As long as UM and MSU are top 4 seeds they'll play at the Palace for the first two rounds.
So, I guess that what we want to happen is at least a 3 seed, which means if we win against IU, and MSU beats wisconsin, and everyone else wins like they are supposed to, then We grap a 3 seed.
If MSU drops out of the four-way tie due to a subsequent loss, we're still at least a 3 seed.
I don't really care that much about the B1G tournament seed or outcome (other than how it affects our NCAA seed). Not much difference in a 4 or 5 seed other than having to play an extra game.
Looks like we are going to be a #3 if we beat IU and a #5 if we don't.
I think having the extra game gives us the potential to lose to a unranked team, which we would altogether avoid with a bye. Also, that extra game would make the tourney pretty taxing on the players, given how many minutes they play. I'd prefer to get out of the tourney with that extra game of rest.
Using Pomeroy's pythagorean number I come up with the following percentages for Michigan
1 Seed - 0% chance
2 Seed - 4% chance
3 seed - 17.5% chance
4 seed - 16.5% chance
5 seed - 62%
Appreciate the numbers but that looks a bit off. Kenpom has us with a 44% chance of beating Indiana and if we beat Indiana there is no scenario where we are the #5 seed. So we have at least a 44% chance of being higher than a #5 seed and no more than a 56% chance of being a #5 seed but you are listing us at 62%. Doesn't follow logically.
Perhaps you just took the pythag numbers and came up with a lower win % against Indiana based on that w/o accounting for home court? Not sure what else might be the issue.
...but kind of odd that IF we beat IU, Michigan would have best "overall" record of any BIG team (IU has that pesky loss to Butler) and would be highest ranked BIG team in polls...and at best would only get a 2 or 3 seed in BIG tourney...just shows you how ridiculous BIG is this year...going to be glued to tv for this conference tourney and am very jealous of any fellow mgobloggers that are going!
I'll be there! Just hoping I don't have to leave super early Thursday morning if god forbid we get the #5
1. Beat PSU on Friday by 20 points.
2. Beat Wisky on Saturday, with no possibility of late game heroics.
3. Beat Indiana for the second straight Sunday.
4. We get the #1 seed in the Midwest.
Sparty gets shifted to a different sub regional.
I'll live only numbers 3 and 4 happen!
Thanks for putting this together. Fun to look at the various scenarios. Here is my NCAA tourney question: would we be better off as a #1 seed playing outside the Midwest, or a #2 seed playing at The Palace? Maybe we can get both, but if not, I would rather be the #2 seed playing at The Palace as it would be closer to a home game environment.
...where do you get Michigan as a 2 seed playing in Midwest? Every projection I have seen as a 2 always has them in the West.
Michigan (or any B1G team) can not be the #2 in the Midwest if IU is the #1. There is a rule that the first three teams from a conference must be placed in three different regions. Now that IU has slipped up a little and there are some projections with Kansas as the #1 in Midwest, you may start seeing more having a B1G as the #2.
PSA- As long as Michigan is a top 4 seed we will be playing at the Palace. Translation - Michigan will play at the Palace.
Come on guys. I know we haven't been great at basketball in awhile but lets try to at least act the part.
The round of 16 and 8 are reflective of the regional bracket you're in (South, Midwest, etc). The first two rounds are pod-based which means that the NCAA will place top 4 seeds in a location that is closest in proximity to them.
So, hypothetically Michigan could be a #2 seed in the West and MSU could be a #2 seed in the South and they will both play their first two rounds at the Palace.
First post updated after Wisconsin/MSU. Pretty straight forward now: