via umhoops - Updated after Wisconsin/MSU
the just released schedules were a flat-out statement that the B10 doesn't believe SOS will matter in playoff selection
Big Ten Tournament Seeding Scenarios (updated after Wisc/MSU)
March 7th, 2013 at 12:23 PM
#1
Big Ten Tournament Seeding Scenarios (updated after Wisc/MSU)
March 7th, 2013 at 12:28 PM | 
very
very
March 7th, 2013 at 3:35 PM |
RAWR
RAWR
March 7th, 2013 at 12:32 PM |
Really?
Really?
What exactly is this telling us?
March 7th, 2013 at 12:36 PM |
Each row is one of the 32
Each row is one of the 32
Each row is one of the 32 possible combinations that can occur. For a given row, the first five columns are winners of the remaining games and the last five columns are the Big Ten tournament seed each team would get in that scenario.
If you can't get into college go to State.
March 7th, 2013 at 12:53 PM |
So we basically have a 75%
So we basically have a 75%
So we basically have a 75% chance to not be a 5 seed assuming all games are a 50/50 chance.
March 7th, 2013 at 1:27 PM |
We basically need Wisconsin
We basically need Wisconsin
We basically need Wisconsin or MSU to lose their remaining 2 games, or we need to beat Indiana to be ensured a 4 or better.
Special Teams means special times!
March 7th, 2013 at 1:45 PM |
Seeding probabilities for
Seeding probabilities for
Seeding probabilities for Michigan (assuming every game is 50/50 and independent):
1st: 0/32 = 0%
2nd: 6/32 = 18.75%
3rd: 8/32 = 25%
4th: 10/32 = 31.25%
5th: 8/32 = 25%
Overall expected seed: (0/32)(1) + (6/32)(2) + (8/32)(3) + (10/32)(4) + (8/32)(5) = 3.625
Overall expected seed of other teams:
Indiana: (27/32)(1) + (3/32)(2) + (2/32)(3) + (0/32)(4) + (0/32)(5) = 1.21875
Ohio State: (1/32)(1) + (14/32)(2) + (9/32)(3) + (7.5/32)(4) + (0.5/32)(5) = 2.765625
Wisconsin: (4/32)(1) + (6/32)(2) + (5/32)(3) + (5.5/32)(4) + (11.5/32)(5) = 3.453125
Michigan: (0/32)(1) + (6/32)(2) + (8/32)(3) + (10/32)(4) + (8/32)(5) = 3.625
Michigan State: (0/32)(1) + (3/32)(2) + (8/32)(3) + (9/32)(4) + (12/32)(5) = 3.9375
March 7th, 2013 at 12:36 PM |
My sarcasm detector is off
My sarcasm detector is off
My sarcasm detector is off this morning. Help?
I got the shotgun. You got the briefcase. It's all in the game though, right?
March 7th, 2013 at 2:38 PM |
Simple logic isn't really
Simple logic isn't really
Simple logic isn't really your strong point, Teddy.
"Ack ack!"
March 7th, 2013 at 12:33 PM |
So...
So...
Basically, if we lose Sunday, odds are us being the 5... I just don't see Wisconsin losing to Penn State or Staee losing to NW
You fell victim to one of the classic blunders. The most famous is never get into a land war with Asia. But only slightly less well known is this: never go in against a Sicilian, when death is on the line!
March 7th, 2013 at 12:41 PM |
The thing about Wisconsin, is
The thing about Wisconsin, is
The thing about Wisconsin, is that they can beat anyone and also lose to anyone. Fewer possessions = less margin for error. This is a team that just got housed by the same Purdue team we just played. And it was in Madison.
I think they'll win but it's not a lock by any stretch.
I got the shotgun. You got the briefcase. It's all in the game though, right?
March 7th, 2013 at 12:34 PM |
Very nice to see
Very nice to see
Very nice to see this all in one spot. We can't get the 1 seed no matter what, but it seems like our most realistic shot at the 2 is for MSU to beat Wisco and Illinois to beat OSU, with us beating Indiana obviously. I think MSU will win tonight, so asuming we beat Indiana, it all comes down to Illinois upsetting OSU @ OSU. Possible, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Practice makes perfect. Unless you're the Buckeyes. Then you have to cheat.
March 7th, 2013 at 12:35 PM |
Slightly confusing
Slightly confusing
Slightly confusing
If you see someone in an airport with Michigan logos on luggage and they are wearing a pilot uniform come say hello.
March 7th, 2013 at 12:35 PM |
Thanks
Thanks
UM needs to take care of business against IU, because it would take a big upset in the other games for UM to get the first round bye (either NW would have to beat Sparty, or PSU would have to beat Wisky).
March 7th, 2013 at 12:35 PM |
I hate the fact that I have
I hate the fact that I have
I hate the fact that I have to root for Staee in these scenarios.
The Team, The Team, The Team
March 7th, 2013 at 12:49 PM |
I love the fact that
I love the fact that
it will bother Staee to no end that their winning will work to our benefit.
March 7th, 2013 at 1:01 PM |
What? If NW beats Sparty we
What? If NW beats Sparty we
What? If NW beats Sparty we are pretty much assured of a first round bye, which is more important than a 2-4 seed.
March 7th, 2013 at 1:50 PM |
Wisconsin is in East Lansing
Wisconsin is in East Lansing
Wisconsin is in East Lansing tonight.
I got the shotgun. You got the briefcase. It's all in the game though, right?
March 7th, 2013 at 2:07 PM |
Right. First games first.
Right. First games first.
Right. First games first.
March 7th, 2013 at 12:37 PM |
I like it
I like it
Why use words when pictures can explain it all? Thanks for your work.
What? No gravy?
March 7th, 2013 at 12:39 PM |
This will be way simpler after tonight
This will be way simpler after tonight
and then everyone can stop whining k thx
Tremendous!
March 7th, 2013 at 12:41 PM |
I was going to say do we really need this thread
I was going to say do we really need this thread
When it's been discussed in basically every thread on here, including showing that grid? But actually having the grid up at the top of a dedicated post is a good idea just to prevent people asking the question a thousand times today.
"I love him, he's a great coach, he's a great mentor, he's a great friend. He's every single thing you want a college coach to be, and he does it flawlessly." -David Molk
March 7th, 2013 at 1:21 PM |
What are the chances that we get a 1 seed
What are the chances that we get a 1 seed
if we beat IU? :)
"I hate losing more than I like winning." - Zack
March 7th, 2013 at 12:46 PM |
This is great. Easy to digest
This is great. Easy to digest
This is great. Easy to digest in this format. Thanks!
I got the shotgun. You got the briefcase. It's all in the game though, right?
March 7th, 2013 at 12:47 PM |
Basically: beat Indiana, or
Basically: beat Indiana, or
Basically: beat Indiana, or get a 4 or 5 seed.
Thanks for the post. No sarcasm.
March 7th, 2013 at 12:51 PM |
I don't understand why we
I don't understand why we
I don't understand why we can't be the #1 seed? someone please explain...why does Indiana get the tiebreaker
March 7th, 2013 at 12:58 PM |
If Michigan ties IU for
If Michigan ties IU for
If Michigan ties IU for first, IU wins every tie-breaker. Head to head is even at 1-1, so they move to record against third place team, then fourth place team, etc. Both are 0-1 againt Wisconsin, both are 1-1 against OSU, but IU is 2-0 vs MSU and Michigan is 1-1. So they get the higher seed.
Same principle if there is a third or fourth team involved with the tie for first. Michigan just can't get past IU based on tie-breakers.
March 7th, 2013 at 1:01 PM |
Gotcha! That's some shit
Gotcha! That's some shit
Gotcha! That's some shit
March 7th, 2013 at 1:44 PM |
Thanks...
Thanks...
...but why does Ohio edge us if we beat IU (and State and Ohio win out)...Ohio and Michigan split and both would be 2-2 against IU and State. What other factors figure into the tie breaker? Thanks!
March 7th, 2013 at 2:10 PM |
I think the fact that they're
I think the fact that they're
I think the fact that they're 1-1 against Wisconsin, we're 0-1. They're winning percentage would obviously be better than ours against them.
March 7th, 2013 at 2:25 PM |
Dam Badgers!
Dam Badgers!
Thanks!
March 7th, 2013 at 12:53 PM |
Very good work, there's a chance. Things have
Very good work, there's a chance. Things have
Very good work, there's a chance. Things have tended to go Michigan's way this season, except for the part about controlling their own destiny.
March 7th, 2013 at 12:53 PM |
It amazes me that the most
It amazes me that the most
It amazes me that the most likely team for the #1 not named Indiana is Wisconsin. WTF?!?!?!
damn hail mary 3 <grumble><grumble><grumble>
March 7th, 2013 at 2:09 PM |
BTT Seeding Determinants thru Tiebreaker #2
BTT Seeding Determinants thru Tiebreaker #2
2013 B1G Tourney Seed Determination Inputs
| TEAM | GM2 | GM1 | IU | UM | OSU | MSU | WIS | MN | ILL | IA | PU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #2 Indiana | -- | @UM | -- | 1-0 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| #7 Michigan | -- | IU | 0-1 | -- | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| #14 Ohio State | -- | ILL | 1-1 | 1-1 | -- | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| #10 Michigan State | WIS | NW | 0-2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | -- | 1-0 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 2-0 |
| #22 Wisconsin | @MSU | @PSU | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 0-1 | -- | 1-1 | 2-0 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
Blue indicates a game remaining
http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/100606aae.html
March 7th, 2013 at 1:45 PM |
In a four-way tie
In a four-way tie
Wiscy would be 3-1 in the four team round robin
March 7th, 2013 at 2:10 PM |
Thanks for the info. Am I
Thanks for the info. Am I
Thanks for the info. Am I still allowed to despise everything about the way they play the game?
March 7th, 2013 at 2:28 PM |
Of course :)
Of course :)
.
March 7th, 2013 at 2:27 PM |
The one undetermined scenario above,
The one undetermined scenario above,
OSU & Wiscy tied for fourth place below a three-way UM-IU-MSU tie can be explained as follows:
Rule 1: OSU & Wiscy split their games against each other.
Rule 2.Step 1: Against the first place finishers, OSU would be 3-3; Wiscy 2-2
Rule 2.Step 2: The next comparison would be against the seventh place finisher(s), Illinois (a given in this scenario), and Minny & Iowa provided each win over @Purdue and Nebraska, respectively.
March 7th, 2013 at 2:39 PM |
Which having inspected it, goes to Wiscy
Which having inspected it, goes to Wiscy
OSU would be 0-2 against Illinois, versus 2-0 for Wiscy
Minny & Iowa joining the tie would both help OSU, but not enough to catch Wiscy.
Against that three-way group for sixth place, Wiscy would be 4-2 while OSU 2-2.
Maybe the chart was created before Minny lost to Almeida Sauce and the Huskers last night? Before the loss, Minny had a chance to take sixth all by themselves at 10-8.
March 7th, 2013 at 2:49 PM |
It was. Wisconsin should win
It was. Wisconsin should win
It was. Wisconsin should win that 4/5 tiebreaker with OSU now that Minnesota lost to the Huskers.
If you can't get into college go to State.
March 7th, 2013 at 12:54 PM |
Let me simplify it
Let me simplify it
We are either going to have a bye or a first round game that we will undoubtedly win, a quarter-final against a Minnesota-ish team that we should beat but ya never know, a semi-final against a really good team with a 50 % chance of victory, and with a victory, a death match against Indiana (or possibly OSU but unlikely) in the BIG touney final.
March 7th, 2013 at 12:57 PM |
"first round game that we
"first round game that we
"first round game that we will undoubtedly win"
Well we are 1-1 against Penn State, so I think there would be a bit of doubt there.
March 7th, 2013 at 1:08 PM |
I also have doubts about
I also have doubts about
I also have doubts about beating PSU because...well...nm
But I also have to correct you on the next line. A likely scenario is MSU in the quarters (4-seed vs 5-seed assuming favorites win 1st round)...there no easy scenarios here. Assuming victory on Sunday is unwise. I hope for the best but we will be playing a great team.
I would like to get some revenge off Wisky...but those games are painful to watch
March 7th, 2013 at 12:55 PM |
If MSU wins tonight...
If MSU wins tonight...
If MSU wins tonight then it looks like Indiana is the 1 seed.
March 7th, 2013 at 12:56 PM |
It seems like every time I
It seems like every time I
It seems like every time I want State to win, they lose. They are just useless.
March 7th, 2013 at 1:59 PM |
That's because they lose purposely to spite you
That's because they lose purposely to spite you
And then they celebrate having ruined your day.
An old Russian joke tells the story of a peasant with one cow who hates his neighbor because he has two. One day the peasant found an old bottle next to his single cow. He opened the bottle up and out came a genie. The genie thanked him for letting him out and told the peasant that he would be granted one wish.
The peasant thought about it for a moment, and then responded, "I wish that both of my neighbor's cows would die".
March 7th, 2013 at 2:05 PM |
So you're saying that if
So you're saying that if
So you're saying that if given the chance MSU would wish our cows to die so they could have the only cow?
For some odd reason I think that joke fits perfectly on so many levels.
March 7th, 2013 at 1:01 PM |
Best news -- win and we're co-champs and almost certainly...
Best news -- win and we're co-champs and almost certainly...
...a 2 or 3 seed.
March 7th, 2013 at 1:06 PM |
In Numerical Terms...
In Numerical Terms...
I was counting on the screen and came up with 32 distinct scenarios:
| SEED | Indiana | Ohio St. | Wisconsin | Michigan | Michigan St. |
| 1 | 84.38% | 3.13% | 12.50% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 2 | 9.38% | 43.75% | 18.75% | 18.75% | 9.38% |
| 3 | 6.25% | 28.13% | 15.63% | 25.00% | 25.00% |
| 4 | 0.00% | 25.00% | 15.63% | 31.25% | 28.13% |
| 5 | 0.00% | 3.13% | 37.50% | 25.00% | 37.50% |
I wasn't quite sure how to approach the tie that takes place in one scenario, so the 4th and 5th seed numbers for Ohio State and Wisconsin are italicized to denote admitted approximation on my part (hence, they total more than 100%).
LATE EDIT: The table above is indeed the coin-flip scenario - thanks those who pointed it out. I meant to add more but hit "Save" prematurely and lost some stuff by compounding the problem and exiting Excel and lost the Massey-adjusted table.
Here are the Massey estimates -
Taking into account Massey's predictive probabilities, which give us an estimated 55% chance at beating Indiana, for starters, we can find the most probable scenario based on the OP's table.
Further, Michigan State has superb odds against Wisconsin and Northwestern (74% and 95% respectively), and Ohio State has an estimate 83% chance of beating Illinois. Wisconsin also has 83% against PSU per that algorithm. Taking that into consideration, the scenario in which Indiana beats us, MSU wins out, and Wisconsin and Ohio State both win is overall the most likely based on his estimates.
So, it would be, in that case, Indiana at #1, Ohio St. at #2, MSU at #3, Wisconsin at #4 and Michigan as the #5 seed under those assumptions, I believe.
"Funny isn't it, how naughty dentists always make that one fatal mistake."
Follow the random tweets of a Michigan alum - http://twitter.com/#!/LorneEC3
March 7th, 2013 at 1:11 PM |
It got cut off but the
It got cut off but the
It got cut off but the Wisc/OSU 4/5 tiebreaker goes to Wisconsin if Minnesota lost either one of their remaining two games, which happened last night.
If you can't get into college go to State.
colorful - and if I really stare at it, I see a 3-D dinosaur in an F-14.