Big Ten tiebraker FYI

Submitted by I Like Burgers on

Just an FYI...in case of a three-way Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State three-way tie, the Big Ten rules now give the tiebraker to the team with the highest CFP ranking.  Winner of Michigan-Ohio State would still likely have the highest ranking, but....its interesting.

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doggdetroit

October 23rd, 2016 at 12:18 AM ^

They may win out, but PSU wasn't even receiving any votes in the AP poll entering this week. They will probably debut somewhere around #18 to #22 next week. Michigan will be #2, OSU will fall to #8 (give or take a spot). Not a single one of those teams on PSU's remaining schedule will be receiving votes so if PSU were to win out, top 10 is probably the best the highest they could climb. Meanwhile, OSU plays likely #6 Nebraska in two weeks which will bump them up should they win. And of course, a win over #2 Michigan would elevate OSU further.

Pretty much the winner of Michigan vs. OSU is going to the B1G title game. Michigan outright, OSU by virtue of head to head in a two way tie. Or in a three way tie as you have outlined, OSU as the highest rated team.  

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TrueBlue2003

October 23rd, 2016 at 2:21 AM ^

has a very easy schedule the rest of the way so I'm not sure about this.  Hard to tell how good/bad PSU is though.  They were awful against us, should not have beaten Minn (who is terrible and barely beat Rutgers today), shouldn't have won today but at least kept it close enough to get lucky.

OSU does have Nebraska and even NW doesn't look like a gimma, so tough call on what's more likely.

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DualThreat

October 23rd, 2016 at 12:01 AM ^

I mean, if Michigan loses to a #7 ranked OSU (for example) on the road while OSU loses to an unranked PSU, I would be pissed if OSU jumped Michigan in the final CFP rankings if it was a close loss. 

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I Like Burgers

October 23rd, 2016 at 12:22 AM ^

If Michigan lost to Ohio State, I think there's a few scenarios where they still get in as a second Big Ten team.  It would have to be a close/flukey loss to Ohio State though, and some nonsense would have to happen in other conferences, but that's pretty much always the case for getting two teams from the same conference in.

As always though, beat Ohio State, advance to the BTCG, get to the CFP.

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Optimism Attache

October 23rd, 2016 at 6:32 AM ^

It probably is >0, but I seem to think the best chance for 2 B1G teams making it would have been both OSU and Mich going into The Game undefeated and us losing it by a very small margin on the road. The fact that OSU just dropped one to a team that will probably not even break the top 10 probably makes it tougher for the conference to send two teams.

Of course it also depends on how many undefeateds there are by the end. If you have Bama, Washington, and Baylor/WVU (god help us), then it gets pretty tough to justify a second B1G team. 

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drzoidburg

October 23rd, 2016 at 7:43 AM ^

Head to head should mean so much, but UM has done better against all common opponents of Ohio, it'll be on the road and if it's close...who knows. Heck, even the OOC schedule looks better with Colorado's remarkable success. But we face Iowa instead of Nebraska. It'd be close

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Mercury Hayes

October 23rd, 2016 at 12:05 AM ^

Two nice things that may have come from today.

1. Michigan could lose to OSU and still make the title game via that three way tie.

2. MIchigan could lose to OSU, and OSU could lose to Nebraska or WIsconsin in the title game opening the door for Michigan to the CFP.

Of course, just win and no problem. 

Also of note: Nebraska vs. Wisconsin and Nebraska vs. OSU with major implications. Sort of want Nebraska in those games to avoid a potential rematch with Wisconsin but of course, if Nebraska keeps winning, don't want to play them either!

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Perkis-Size Me

October 23rd, 2016 at 8:56 AM ^

Pretty sure that in the event of a three way tie, the league will insert the team with the highest ranking. If OSU beats us and we both go to 11-1, I think they'd nudge just past us. Like we'd drop to 5 and they'd go to 4.

Of course if you beat them and win out, none of this matters.



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NittanyFan

October 23rd, 2016 at 12:13 AM ^

I may be wrong --- but that's how I read the link.

http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-footbl/archive/081011aaa.html

OSU wins 8-1 ties head-to-head with only U-M (head-to-head).  

OSU wins a 3-way tie with U-M/PSU because PSU drops out first due to an OOC loss, then OSU has head-to-head on U-M.

(edit: actually, as I think about this more --- OSU only controls their destiny if U-M wins out leading up to The Game.  OSU would lose a head-to-head 8-1 tie with PSU.  So they are U-M fans for Michigan's next 4 games.)

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I Like Burgers

October 23rd, 2016 at 12:33 AM ^

I got the info from a reporter...who seems to have deleted his tweet.

Looking at the rules, it seems like the first relevant tiebraker would be winning percentage which would knock out Penn State due to their OOC loss, and after that it would default to head-to-head between Michigan and Ohio State.

Sorry for the false alarm.  Carry on, and beat Sparty.

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Picktown GoBlue

October 23rd, 2016 at 2:24 AM ^

 


The following procedure will determine the representative from each division in the event of a tie:

 

(a)    If two teams are tied, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.
(b)    If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 6 will be followed until a determination is made.  If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.
1.    The records of the three tied teams will be compared against each other.
2.    The records of the three tied teams will be compared within their division.
3.    The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5, 6, and 7).
4.    The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference opponents.
5.    The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games] shall be the representative.
6.    The representative will be chosen by random draw.
 

If I understand it correctly, if PSU, OSU, UM all are 8-1 in conference with OSU beating UM, then the evaluation would be:

  1. they will each be 1-1 against the tied schools
  2. they will each be 5-1 against their own division
  3. they will each be 1-0 against the #4, 5, 6, and 7 teams in their division
  4. they will each be 4-0 against common conference opponents (it would only be the other 4 division teams that are common)
  5. overall winning percentage would be .917 for OSU and UM but only .833 for PSU.  With only 2 teams left at this step, it would come down to the game between OSU and UM. Ugh

If they are all 8-1 because UM loses to say, Iowa, and then UM winning The Game, then it would be:

  1. UM will be 2-0, and OSU and PSU would be 1-1 - Michigan wins tiebreaker

If we win out, this is all moot.

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