Big Ten Games This Weekend: Who You Got?
Alright folks. Let's talk about this weekend' Big 10 games.......wait, unless you want another thread discussing our Defense. You dont want one of those? Ok, then, this might be the thread for you.
I want to hear people's take on this week's league slate. Personally, I think the Underdogs look good. I am leaning towards all four of them right now.
Illini +7.5 over MSU (at MSU)
Minny +5 over Purdue (at Purdue)
UM +3.5 vs Iowa (at UM)
Wisco +4.5 vs OSU (at Wisco)
Thoughts? Breakdowns? Which one of these would be your mother-in-law pick, meaning its such a safe bet you'd bet your MIL's money on the game?
Regarding the first two, the Illini and Gophers have been money catching points. Illini have covered 7 in row when catching points. MSU is always a sketchy play at home against the number and are 4-8 the week after UM.
With Michigan, its just a hunch that Denard will play better in the red zone. And, I think UM rebounds and outrushes Iowa. I love dogs who outrush the favorite. We've come full circle on this game. It originally opened at this number back in the summer, but the unveiling of Denard pushed MIchigan anywhere from -2 to -3 during the first few weeks of fall. This line has shifted 5.5 points from this time a week ago thanks to the results of one game.
I've thought all year OSU loses in MadTown. I might have been more confident of that back in the summer, than I am now, but I think this game will go down to the wire like their last contest in Madison two years ago. I'll take the 4.5-point head start.
I'd love to hear everyone's else thoughts.
October 12th, 2010 at 9:44 AM ^
MSU: Their defense will contain and pick apart scheelhasse. They will win by 2 touchdowns.
Minny: They have kept many of their games close, and I don't think Purdue has the firepower to put them away.
UM: Stanzi and Denard to return to proper form.
OSU: Pryor puts away the badgers in the second half. OSU wins by 13.
October 12th, 2010 at 11:17 AM ^
Idk if any of you have been to Camp Randell but im from wisconsin and those fans are gunna be fire up when #1 OSU comes to town. The Badger fans are gunna be drinking from sunrise by kickoff at night they are gunna be loud and crazy. I think OSU hasnt shown me anything that deserves being ranked 1, who have they beat? A underacheiving miami team? I think the badgers run the ball with their huge line and control the clock with Clay and James White. I"ll go Broadway Joe on this one and say the badgers upset OSU!
October 12th, 2010 at 2:37 PM ^
I don't know what the hell "Camp Randell" is but I do know that the last time TP visited Camp Randall he drove the offense down the field for the game winning TD as a true frosh. So I don't think he is going to be scared of a bunch of drunk cheeseheads this time around.
Also, 6-0 is slightly more impressive than 5-1 with a beatdown from Spartyn and eek-outs over ASU and freaking San Jose State. You can suggest that OSU isn't worthy of being number 1, but don't make that the backbone of your argument as to why a much less impressive Wisconsin team is going to beat them.
Wisconsin has struggled in pass defense this year and TP and our WRs are poised to pick them a part, not to mention Wisconsins' offensive style plays right into the waiting arms of Cam Heyward, Ross Homan and Brian Rolle.
OSU: 28
Wiscy: 13
October 12th, 2010 at 9:55 AM ^
OSU -4.5? That seems like highway robbery. Does Vegas know something? I guess some people are skittish after OSU's last road game, but still. Maybe Pryor is hurt?
Also, why does Vegas love us so much? What makes them think Iowa is worse than MSU?
I'm interested to see the what happens in the MSU game. I don't think I would bet on it, but I can see a letdown for them. If they're gonna have a Sparty NO! moment this season, this is the time.
October 12th, 2010 at 10:11 AM ^
Las Vegas Sports Consultants actually advised to Books that this line be 6.5, I was going to buy a hook and take Wisco +7.
When Books releases actual betting lines, the spread was just 4.5
They must have been afraid of too much Wisco money coming in had the line been closer to a TD maybe?
October 12th, 2010 at 10:44 AM ^
It's also a night game, which I didn't realize. Wisco is really good at home at night. That's good for a few points. Still, I like OSU for anything less than a TD.
October 12th, 2010 at 9:57 AM ^
plays pretty good against running teams.
UM bounces back and beats Iowa (who is not a very good team IMO).
OSU vs Wisky has potential to win the "most boring game of the year" title 2 years in a row.
October 12th, 2010 at 9:57 AM ^
and Purdue vs Minny wasn't worth commenting on.
October 12th, 2010 at 10:08 AM ^
You wake up on a Saturday morning, a spring in your step to watch a weekend of college football and one of the few TV games at noon is Minny/Purdue.
Awful. I'd rather watch EPL on Fox Soccer Channel instead
I'm a junkie though and will put something small on the underdog Gophers just to keep interesting, though.
October 12th, 2010 at 9:58 AM ^
I pick against OSU in Big Ten play always. Luckily, I am extremely wealthy so money is no object. I figure the bad karma I'm throwing will eventually sink the Buckeyes. Or not.
October 12th, 2010 at 10:17 AM ^
The three matchups other than the Doormat Bowl all look like they have the potential to be very entertaining, exciting games.
MSU should handle Ilinois, but it wouldn't surprise me to see a letdown after their, ahem, big win. Teams riding emotion tend to be very volatile. I still like State to win that though.
I don't think Bielema is capable of beating Tressel. Wisconsin has the players to do it this year but I don't see it happening.
Our game is extremely difficult to predict. If Michigan's offensive execution errors continue, we have no chance. If we are back to the ninja offense of weeks 1-5, then we should at least expect a shootout (which makes Mich a great pick against the spread). I think our defense may do a little better against Iowa than against MSU (as Iowa has inferior skill players) but we still need to score a lot of points to win.
October 12th, 2010 at 10:27 AM ^
1 Sparties- Ill has played 2 big games in a row and they are not that good. Sparties have done the same thing but they are the better team and at home.
2. I lost a ton of dough on the NW-Pur game last week. Still no idea how NW can lose that game, but Purdue must have manned up big time but the truth is Purdue is beat to shit. I'll take Min
October 12th, 2010 at 10:28 AM ^
Considering what they did to us at our place, if they can't beat Illinois by at much at home, it doesn't bode well for when the Illini come to town.
I guess Minney over Purdue, but I wouldn't bet it just because that means I would have to pay attention to that game.
I think Iowa's spread is way too low. Iowa's offense may not be MSU's, but we have really held anyone with a pulse under 24. And we only put up 17 against a much worse defense. It might not be 17 again, but just a field goal with a kicker? That has Iowa written all over it.
And Wisky plays OSU tough, so I understand the attraction, but OSU isn't even getting a Touchdown. And we've spent weeks saying how Wisconsin really isn't "All that".
And who knows how much home field will matter...two weeks ago, home teams all covered; last weekend, only one did. So much for the "it's tough on the road in the Big Ten" theory.
October 13th, 2010 at 2:16 PM ^
Ehhhh, Sparty pulls that kind of crap all the time. They were once up 35 - 3 over NW at halftime, only to lose 38 - 35. Were it anyone other than Sparty I'd agree that a close win at home to Illinois would be disturbing, but I think there's a very good chance that they come out really flat and make that game very interesting.
But, I'm already way less comfortable facing Illinois now than I was before they throttled PSU in Happy Valley. That game is not going to be easy either way
October 12th, 2010 at 10:34 AM ^
I'm surprised that's not higher. I guess they are still valuing PSU higher than they should. I'd take that.
Who knows what Wisc team shows up. if they play strong on defense they can win. Wiscy is the only one that played a good team (MSU) and we saw how that turned out.
The Putrid Bowl, who knows what can happen. All I know is I wouldn't put money on a Brewster team if you paid me.
Oh and THE KNOWLEDGE says it's ok to take UM, so we got that going for us.
October 12th, 2010 at 10:38 AM ^
As to these nuggets....
Zookers (+) Msu prime for a let down.
Minny (+) I have a great feeling? Minny needs this win bad and PU coming off the game of their season. PU still might win but it will be a barn burner.
Iowa (-) Sorry guys. I have to go with the D on this one.
OSU (-) Look for Tolzien to be pressured and bring out the arm punt...again.
October 12th, 2010 at 10:51 AM ^
MSU - Illinois' heads will be too big after the big win in Happy Valley, and MSU is 6-0 in the two weeks following the UM game. MSU's defensive strength is against the run, and Illinois doesn't have anyone like Denard.
Minny - Tough game to call, but I think Minny isn't HORRIBLE (they tend to keep their games close), and Purdue may be too pleased with themselves after beating a decent team without Marve, but this could go either way.
Iowa - The D is just too tough. I'm not sold on Iowa, but I think they cover - O will be good enough to put up points, and the D will be good enough to contain Denard and co - will be high scoring for an Iowa game though.
OSU - Just not completely sold on Wisconsin vs. tough defenses. Not sold on OSU's offense either, but there should be enough in the tank to cover against UW.
October 12th, 2010 at 10:46 AM ^
Illini +7.5 over MSU (at MSU)
I think I have to take Illinois and the points. I mean I don't know if they can pull the upset, but 7.5 is a lot and the zookers aren't that bad this year
Minny +5 over Purdue (at Purdue)
Don't care. I'll take Minny b/c Purdue is lifeless and in a 0-0 game the team with +5 wins
UM +3.5 vs Iowa (at UM)
I'm taking UM for the win, so you can keep the points and shove them up your ass.
Wisco +4.5 vs OSU (at Wisco)
I like OSU to roll here.
October 12th, 2010 at 10:46 AM ^
$60 - OSU -4.5 at Wisconsin.
$20 - Minny +5 at Purdue.
$15 - Illinois +7.5 at MSU.
$5 - UM +3.5 vs. Iowa.
October 12th, 2010 at 10:39 PM ^
$50 Iowa -3.5 at UM
$30 OSU -4.5 at Wisconsin
$10 MSU -7.5 vs. Illinois
$10 Purdue -5 vs. Minnesota
October 12th, 2010 at 11:45 AM ^
I'll take the home dogs...
October 12th, 2010 at 11:45 AM ^
OSU @ Wisconsin - While UW can run the ball, OSU does not give away receiving yards. OSU pulls away in the 4th quarter and covers unless Pyror gets hurt again or throws interceptions. MSU slowed Wisconsin's running game and OSU should do the same.
Minnesota at Purdoo - Purdue surprised last week with help from NU. These teams are evenly matched but I do agree that Minnesota can win but will not cover.
Iowa at Michigan - Glad we are the underdogs for this one. Do believe Iowa lines are better than MSU's but that MSU is superior at QB, receiver, and running back. This is a game where getting out in front could really help and put Iowa in a passing mode which is not their best feature. Michigan by 3 but only because Iowa rallies from a deficit.
Ilini at Sparty - Illini had their game of the year but do not think they match up well with MSU. Running game and receivers combined make MSU much more diverse than PSU. Look for MSU to use the same strategy for the 3rd week in a row by staying close and then letting things lose in the 3rd quarter with the 4th quarter spent bleeding down the clock.
October 12th, 2010 at 12:24 PM ^
PU to cover and win; Minny's awful, and the game's at PU.
MSU to cover and win; MSU will be riding high at home, Illinois will come back to earth
Iowa to cover and win; I'm puzzled at the faith we'll beat a better defense than MSU's, but this comes down to our defense and kicking game, or complete lack thereof.
OSU to cover and win
October 12th, 2010 at 10:20 PM ^
I don't know if Michigan will beat Iowa, but Iowa doesn't have the firepower MSU has.
Sure, Iowa has a better defense and a better O-line, but MSU has more playmakers on offense than does Iowa. If Denard can take care of the ball, it will be a close one.
October 12th, 2010 at 12:55 PM ^
Illinois has a much better D than people think, plus MSU will have some form of hangover. I don't think Illinois will win, but I do think they'll keep the game low scoring and close.
Minnesota is improving and Purdue is still broken. I think Minnesota finally plays well enough for 4 quarters to win.
The only reason I feel confident about UM staying within a field goal of Iowa is because of the mighty Stanziball. I think Gerg is finally on to something by dialing up the pressure. Spreading out the D and chucking it all day is our weakness but not Iowa's strong suit.
OSU is playing a night game at Wisky which could be trouble. They win, but I just don't believe enough in Pryor to think they can hang a double digit win here.