The Big 2014 Michigan Football Preview - Bill Connelly
Didn't see anyone else post this yet... Bill Connelly, of SBNation and formerly Football Outsiders, has his way-early football preview up:
Last year he was quite optimistic, giving us a good chance at 10 wins despite his own numbers suggesting a less successful season (should've stuck with the numbers!).
This year he is again optimistic, predicting a top 15-20 finish despite getting burned last year. His optimism seems to be primarly based on his confidence that Nussmeier will be an improvement on Borges and that the O-Line can't possibly be as bad as last year.
Still, I find myself gravitating toward this team. Perhaps it's just a need to double down on last season's optimism, but I feel like last year's biggest issues -- awful offensive line play, inexperience on defense -- will be rectified to some degree. And if they are, then Michigan is suddenly flipping the field on opponents, preventing easy scores, and giving Devin Gardner (or, yes, Shane Morris) infinitely easier down-and-distance situations. Michigan was dragged pretty far down by a couple of fixable issues, and if Doug Nussmeier is able to find a rhythm for this offense, this could pretty easily be a top-15 or top-20 team again.
And if it isn't a top-20 team again, the hot seat talk could be pretty impressive in the offseason.
Your thoughts?
"Hot seat talk" will turn into coaching search talk if Michigan has another 6-loss season.
Connelly has 9-3 being the most likely scenario, which I think might be a tad optimistic but not much. I have a hard time seeing us get to 5 losses, much less 6, barring injury problems of course.
Side note - Brian Fremeau from Football Outsiders ran his FEI numbers and says most likely for us is 8-4, which seems a little more reasonable to me. As I recall, he predicted 7-5 last year when most prognosticators were significantly more optimistic.
Either through a buyout or an extention, Brandon is gonna have to bust out the checkbook no matter what.
Maybe I'm just a bit blinded by my maize-colored glasses, but I think we're going to be a much improved team this year. We all know the question marks on offense and it's just bizarre to have only one senior starting, but the defense could be really good and carry us to some big wins.
You're seeing the right shade of maize IMO. I agree that we'll be improved with Nuss at the offensive helm. Thinking back to last season, if we would have had even the tinniest bit of offensive competence we probably would have had two more wins (pick two of the three: Penn St & Nebraska, or Iowa). If our defense is good again this year, we win some of our big games and reach at least nine wins.
It's also worth noting that despite Gardner having way too many INTs last year, he only had 1 in his last 6 games. The final scores might not reflect it so much, but Devin has already done much to repair his turnover tendencies.
One pick through 200 attempts and 61% (not great, but good) completion percentage. All that and without a running game!
Our coaches don't develop players. Devin and his receivers developed all on their own.
/s
I would not be shocked if this team won 10 games this year. I also would not be shocked if they won 8 or 7. I think this team will be riding a fine line between good success and junk.
Agreed... I see us having a similar season to last year when it comes to the closeness of games. Our defense will keep us in it, but we have a lot riding on how quickly the offense gets clicking. If they don't have it together by the Utah game (the O-line in particular), we could be staring at a 2-2 record, with @MSU, @NW, and @OSU (not to mention home vs a likely improved PSU) still lurking on the schedule.
An improved PSU? This is likely the year they will be hit hardest by the NCAA sanctions and lost their coach to the NFL. Franklin has proven himself a great recruiter but has never had close to as much pressure from the fans as he will this year.
Make that defense aggressive and LOOK out...I think Peppers will "turn" one game from a loss to a win and this defense will be as good as 2011. Nuss' only job is to make the offense NOT a clusterF...I see 10 wins at least and here is how.... Take last year's goofball team against this year's easier schedule...8-4 this year versus 7-5 last year. Add one game from Peppers (e.g. he played CB instead of Stribling in PSU game), one game from no clusterF offense (e.g. Iowa game in second half), and one game from aggressive defense (e.g. OSU game) and POOF...11 wins....I'm sticking to it...
Field position, though it sounds 80's and old guy, is one of football study hall's / Connelly's five factors
http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/1/24/5337968/college-football-fiv…
Getting Hagerup back should be a meaningful improvement
Hagerup could end up being the most important (re)addition to the team this year. Wile averaged 40.6 yards per punt last year, which is better than I remember, but Hagerup averaged 45 yards per punt in 2012.
I asked Brady Hoke about this at our weekly tea session and he said, and you can quote me on this, "We only run power at MICH, hell we're going to punt out of the I formation."
Michigan was dragged pretty far down by a couple of fixable issues, and if Doug Nussmeier is able to find a rhythm for this offense, this could pretty easily be a top-15 or top-20 team again.
If the learning of Nussmeier's scheme is going as smoothly as advertised, then I could definitely see this. Even if it isn't 100% installed, fixing the basics would mean much more than we might be able to appreciate right now as the season has not started. We've talked about it much here, but simply giving the offense a distinct direction, as Nussmeier is trying to do, should theoretically work wonders even if line play is sometimes a bit "meh" this year.
...as in blocking the guy who is in front of you?
My optimism for a good season rests on a Senior/Junior laden defense with legit depth.
I am assuming we'll win a lot of 20-17 games this year
Except Indiana. We'll win that 59-45.
Thanks much for the link to this article. I definitely am in the camp wearing rose (maize?) colored glasses. The future is bright.
As time goes on, I believe more and more that the hubris of Michigan let things deteriorate badly under Carr. This greatly affected RR, under whom things got much worse. Hoke was handed an untenable situation.
What Hoke and his staff have done, with Brandon's backing, is awesome. We aren't there yet, but we're on our way. I think the OL will be much better than many people expect. The defense will also improve tremendously with all their experience. A healthy Gardner, with better running backs and protection, will amaze many. 8 - 4, 9 - 3, or 10 - 2 are all acceptable this year. Even 7 - 5, while disappointing, wouldn't be the end of the world. In 2015, with the depth and experience and knowledge of the schemes, the team should do very well.
I take it this guy is actually NOT the actor who played Il Duce in the Boondock Saints?
This article is spot on. I have to believe we will be better on both sides of the ball. On defense, we will be more experienced with the potential to be really good. On offense, as Connolly says, the O-line can't be worse than last year. Although losing Gallon hurts, we still have some playmakers on offense who can shine with an even marginally serviceable O-line.
I'm at 9-3 for my prediction. The schedule is a weird one, though. It is tough to pick us to win any of the 3 rivalry games on the road, and tough to pick us to lose any of the other 9 games. Variance being what it is, I'll say we win 1 rivalry game and lose 1 of the other 9, leaving us to lament what could have been.
There is no way the offensive line play can be worse than it was last year. No.Fucking.Way
We're going to be a better all around football team. I really believe that. How good will we be? Only time will tell.
Oh fuck it, I'll be that guy. We're running the table straight to a 'Ship!
MICH
Hey, how do you know where I live?
A thread where the overwhelming mood in the discussion about next year's football team is optimistic? I am on mgoblog, right?
But seriously, I am cautiously optimistic that this team will do much better than expected due to all the reasons stated above: improved offensive cohesion, better than expected O-Line play, Gardner, and a defense that will be good and could be great. Cautiously because I only really started being a fan when I started at Michigan in 2007, so I have only experienced pain in my time as a fan (outside of the brief respite that was 2011).
Michigan has a lot of home games it could win and three tough road games.
Regardless of how it does in the home games, it is really the three road games that are the most important. Those are Michigan's three biggest rivals and teams that Michigan lost at the last time the played.
So, let's focus on those games. Most people here are negative and can't predict success after ast year. There is almost a stigma with predicting success over Sparty in light of the terrible loss last year. But, those EMOTIONS aside, lets look at the reasons all three of those games are winable:
1. Notre Dame - Michigan has done well against them, even in the BCS NC game year. Michigan is not intimidated by South Bend (few are). Plus, this game is early in the season and that usually favors strong defensive teams. Based on how Michigan has played ND the last few years, I can't see this as anything other than a TOSS UP at worst.
2. MSU - Michigan fans are loath to predict success after thumping chests by neighbor Spartan fans after last year andthat team beating expectations. As a Michigan fan, in order to predict a win here you have to overcome a lot of negativity and misnomers as someone who is thinking of the Carr years. But, there are reasons other than nostalgia to project a potential win. MSU only has 5 guys back on defense and their OL is a bit of a question. MSU has typically enjoyed a down year after an up year. The only exception was 2010 to 2011, but 2010 was not an especially strong squad and wasnt a targeted team the next year. The up and down years may be because of recruiting or may be because of the difficulty of playing with a mark on your back. It would be shocking if they were able to be in position to contend for another B10 title given their departures.
3. OSU - The rograms seems to be in a weird spot. It has tons of telent. ut, it appears Meyer is finally undergoing transition strains. They have to rebuild their offensive line and they will be playing lots of young guys. Meyer's teams are always dangerous, but he generally starts strong at a school but doesn't stick around. Personally, I think he got a taste of how good life can be as a TV personality, but he missed the compeition of the game. he got that back and was re-invigorated for a bit. His recruiting efforts SEEM to indicate he is not as energetic as before. It is always hard to play in C-BUS and since this is the best coach and the most taleneted team Michigan plays, it will be the toughest of the three.
If the line gets better and the defense seems a normal increase in production from the experience and depth, you can see a scnario for winning each of these games. It is not likely, and its never likely to win all your games. But, I could easily see us winning the ND game and, if all goes well, the MSU game too. If we are in a position to win the OSU game it will either be because of a phenominal season or implosion by the Buckeyes.
You think like me. I say minimum 9 wins and I'll bet anyone $500 right now.The defense is better this year along with the offense. There are some pretty good guys filling in behind Fitz Dileo and Gallon. The only question mark is at the tackle position but I think they will come along fine as a unit being one year older and having that valuable playing as young players. People forget that we have some of the best guys in the nation at their positions and they have played as freshman and sophmores. These are unstopable studs as seniors. A year makes a big difference for young guys and their confidence levels. They have dominated at some time or another and they remember what it was like to be the best on the field. They know they can do it again. As for our rivals, I believe there is no way we lose all three games. They all have lost alot too. I think we beat ND the (second) game of the season and have a better shot at MSU and Ohio this year. We played pretty good against the bucks last year. Would've been a lot different story had that game been played in the shoe. Anyways, this is going to be a good year. Does anyone have the nads to take the bet??
Even if our offense doesn't improve at all, our defense will be much better which would win us a few more games from last year.