Betting Lines Released for Additional Games
Betting lines for a lot of college football games were released today by the Golden Nugget. I don't bet personally, but of course these sorts of things are very informative for how the people that set such things perceive a team's strength to be.
The Michigan lines that are out so far:
Notre Dame at Michigan (Pick 'Em)
Michigan (-12) at Connecticut
Minnesota at Michigan (-15)
Michigan (-2.5) at Penn State
Michigan at Michigan State (-3)
Nebraska at Michigan (-4)
Michigan at Northwestern (-3)
Michigan at Iowa (+10.5)
Ohio at Michigan (+6)
The only Big Ten line that they haven't released for Michigan is vs. Indiana, but that's obviously going to favor Michigan. This would place Michigan 5-3 in the Big Ten this year, and while many publications are projecting a Michigan vs. Ohio Big Ten Championship game, I have a hard time believing that one of the other Legends teams wouldn't go 6-2.
Degenerate gambler Adam Kramer has a full rundown of the lines released on his blog Kegs'n'Eggs: http://kegsneggsblog.com/2013/06/07/golden-nugget-releases-250-college-football-point-spreads-for-2013-regular-season/
What does everyone think? Obviously some of these lines are going to move quite a bit, but I always find them interesting.
MSU and NW? Where do I place my bets?
Agreed on the MSU game, but if that Northwestern game doesn't terrify you then you're a bolder man (or woman) than I. They had us dead to rights last year, Kain Colter does a really good job running that offense, and Venric Mark was a big threat as a freshman and you can only assume he's going to get better. Win or lose, that game is going to be very, very frustrating to watch.
That will be huge. I cannot imagine that LV people did not take that into account. That line is going to close a we get closer to Nov 2.
...and because, as we get closer to Nov. 2, our record goes to 6-0 and 7-0 etc. etc. and their goes to 3-4 and 3-5....
Let's look at Northwestern's (relevant) B1G schedule before they play Michigan
Oct. 5th vs. Ohio
Oct. 12th @ Wisconsin
Nov. 2nd @ Nebraska
Sorry folks, I don't see Northwestern winning any of these games. Maybe the Wisconsin game. They're going to be deflated when they play us, with nothing to play for.
Michigan wins, big. Raback it.
Just curious how they compare
From what I could find, some of the early lines last year were
Michigan vs Alabama (-12)
Michigan at Notre Dame (-1)
Michigan State at Michigan (-6)
Michigan at Nebraska (+2)
Michigan at Ohio State (+2)
Those were released on June 11th last year, and you would have won betting against Michigan for every one of those games. I'm guessing the year before it would have been the exact opposite.
I have a hard time not placing us in the title game. MSU is going to suck. Nebraska has an 8th year senior girls volleyball player at QB (at least judging by how TMart throws). Northwestern is our only competition, but we play them at home. We will have 2 regular season losses, and both will be close games. Raback the shit outta that.
That was the implication.
Did you ever watch Martinez throw last year? His mechanics, while still far from flawless, have improved pretty dramatically and he no longer looks like an 8-year old girl when throwing the ball.
I was a little surprised to see that UM was listed as an underdog to MSU only because of perception that UM is a better team than MSU. I believe that game will be very difficult for UM but I expected them to be a slight favorite in the early summer lines. Ditto for Northwestern.
I'm also a little surprised that OSU is a 6 point favorite against UM in Ann Arbor. If I were (still) a betting man, I would take that action. Even if OSU wins the game, I expect they would win by a very small margin of 3-4 points. Personally, at this point in time, I think UM is going to win that game...also by a pretty small margin.
Vegas is taking into account the trash tornado
Me thinks many people didn't pay attention to last season nor rosters
Nebraska fans absolutely invaded Evanston last season. It looked like about a 3 to 1 ratio of Nebraska fans to Northwestern fans at that game. Pretty crazy.
Here's what it looks like to me:
MSU - took M to the wire on the road last year, their defense was very good last year and returns largely intact so it should be very good again (I agree), their offense has nowhere to go but up (I disagree, Bell was their only difference maker), they were better than their record last year (not really)
NW - took M to OT on the road last year and probably should have won, had a good team last year and return mostly intact (true, but I think M has a big talent advantage and should win if we play the way we're capable of)
People have mentioned the MSU and Northwestern lines as questionable, and I agree somewhat.
But my biggest surprise is that we're only favored by 2.5 points at Penn State. Penn State was OK last year, but wasn't in the top echelon of the B1G despite their 8-4 record. They lost a good senior QB in McGloin and are replacing him with either a true freshman or a walk-on. And as the sanctions start to hit, their depth is pretty thin.
The game is on the road, but I would think that we should be favorites by a TD or so.
Two factors in PSU's favor for that game: late start (5 pm) so the 2nd half will be "night game"-like conditions and it is homecoming for PSU.
I tend to think that UM's recent lack of success away from Ann Arbor might be playing into these less favorable lines in the road games.
6 point dogs at home to OSU? ugh. that's gotta put them pretty much in the running for the NC game. gross. that RR attrition is such a big deal and it's really annoying. that costs us more than anything Tat Gate cost them.
I'm not exactly sure why the OP chose to do it the way he did. If you look at the site the OP linked, all of the lines are expressed as the favorite regardless of whether that is the home team or the visitor. I think this is the most common practice although I believe I have seen some sites that always list the line based on the home team: negative if they are the favorite and positive if they are the underdog.
the over/under for these are released. I'd guess they'll the O/U pretty low for the ND and MSU games.
Bet the under.
I think much of the Vegas pessimism comes from our poor road performance recently. If I were a betting man (I'm too cheap to be such a fellow), I'd say the Nebraska game offers the best bet. We obliterated them two years ago and only lost last season because of the Bellomy implosion/Devin at WR experiment. We should be back in form against Neb this year and teach them a lesson.
As for the MSU line...if we don't develop a running game, it could be a tough game. Then again, MSU lost their RB, WR and TE. So, um, could be ugly (not "ugly" as in big win; just ugly).
In general, we've got to be one of the hardest teams in the nation when it comes to setting lines this year. Our offense both excelled and was held back with Denard. Now, we have a more traditional QB and (could have) a stud freshman running back. Teams that relied on an attack-Denard-and-ignore-everyone-else philosophy (I'm looking at you Sparty) are going to be facing an entirely different foe. What will our defense bring? I don't know, but I'm hoping pain.
Their coaches and players even admitted as much, saying they would routinely put eight in the box and dare Denard to throw, which he was frankly unable to do against them (and some other teams). With Gardner, they have to actually play pass defense and still worry about a mobile QB, even if they don't run a read option or inverted veer every third play.
I don't get Iowa at +10.5.
We are giving them 10.5. Seems about right to me.
doesn't lose at home... Therefore UM beats ND and OSU. 4 toss up-ish games on the road (MSU, Iowa, PSU, NW) = average 2 wins. Leaving the maize nd blue at 6-2 in B1G play. In all honesty I think that Michigan should win all of these away games with NW and MSU being the two tougher opponents. This makes the Legends division race very interesting.