Betting line moving towards Sparty
At this site:
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/
the opening line was listed as MSU - 3.5. When I looked earlier this morning the consensus was -4.5 and now it's at -5.
October 27th, 2013 at 12:12 PM ^
October 27th, 2013 at 12:27 PM ^
October 27th, 2013 at 11:43 AM ^
Not surprising. People know MSU has a good defense, and they've seen them score some points two of the last three weeks.
With an aggressive gameplan I still think we can beat them.
October 27th, 2013 at 11:51 AM ^
October 27th, 2013 at 12:07 PM ^
MSU doesn't give up that many short, easy completions. They play a lot of press coverage. The way to beat them is to go over the top.
October 27th, 2013 at 12:12 PM ^
October 27th, 2013 at 12:18 PM ^
Funchess is the key. Their corners are fast, but he's just a lot bigger than them. If Devin is accurate with his passing, MSU is going to have its hands full covering him. If they double him, then that opens up Gallon.
October 27th, 2013 at 12:28 PM ^
Sparty scoring a lot of points lately is the best thing that could happen for us.
Whatever glimmer of thought may have been in Hoke's/Borges' mind that we can just sit on the ball and play "keep away" and beat them with 17 points, should be officially gone.
We have to be aggressive on offense, even at the expense of possible turnovers. Yes they have a good D and a somewhat questionable O. But we can't go into a shell or we will lose.
We need to let Devin and Funchess and Gallon play their games and put pressure on Sparty. Cook will be a different QB if he's the one playing from behind.
October 27th, 2013 at 7:05 PM ^
October 27th, 2013 at 12:26 PM ^
October 27th, 2013 at 1:34 PM ^
Yeah, the tough thing is that going over the top cant really be a game strategy. That's a counter play.
Disagree. It's only a counter move when teams, who had been playing straight up, start cheating up towards the LOS. In MSU's case, they cheat up from the first snap so that part is already taken care of. You can go max-pro and air it out from the get-go. That's what USC did to us for the entire second half of the Rose Bowl in 2007.
October 27th, 2013 at 1:21 PM ^
October 27th, 2013 at 2:56 PM ^
They don't give up much in the way of completions unless you can get penalties called on their incredibly aggressive corners. I've yet to be impressed by Dennard, but if he is allowed to grab jersey all day then he'll be a handful defensively.
This will be a slog of a game, but UM has shown an ability to move the ball against competent defenses at least some of the time while MSU has shown far more inconsistencies. If they can limit the turnovers I don't see why UM can't play a low-scoring game and win.
October 27th, 2013 at 4:59 PM ^
Home cooking being what it usually is in college football officiating, we should assume that MSU's defense will be clutching and grabbing with impunity all day.
October 27th, 2013 at 8:14 PM ^
I'd agree to an extent, but these are also conference referees who will undoubtedly be hammered about the non-calls. They are going to be aware of it, and UM is the type of program that will get the benefit of the doubt versus, I don't know, Purdue.
October 27th, 2013 at 7:03 PM ^
This is why Funchess is key. Dennard is listed at 5'11", 197. Funchess is 6'5", 235 and has crazy leaping ability. He's a load for any CB to cover, and the grabbing is a lot more obvious when it's against him. We need to target him early and often unless he's being bracketed - in which case Gallon should be in single coverage.
October 27th, 2013 at 8:15 PM ^
I agree, thoughI think Gallon is a pretty big handful as well. The problem MSU will have is trying to cover both guys. If they roll their coverage to Funchess, should hopefully open up some running lanes.
October 27th, 2013 at 12:01 PM ^
I'm with IronMan!
October 27th, 2013 at 11:47 AM ^
October 27th, 2013 at 11:54 AM ^
MSU has been favored up in EL. I can't imagine it's happened more than a small handful of times.
Some of this might also be a reflection that Vegas doesn't buy our respective rankings.
October 27th, 2013 at 2:58 PM ^
Vegas only cares about getting action on both sides of a bet. They aren't saying that MSU is 5 points better than UM, only that they need to give up some points for people to bet on MSU. This is a toss-up and Vegas is putting it in the zone because I don't think they have any idea how it will go but UM gets more action because of their name recognition.
October 27th, 2013 at 3:32 PM ^
October 27th, 2013 at 11:55 AM ^
October 27th, 2013 at 12:01 PM ^
Worth noting:
UM-MSU week MT @Johnny_Detroit: Michigan State -5 over Michigan Saturday. UofM has not covered vs. MSU since 2006
— angelique (@chengelis) October 27, 2013
October 27th, 2013 at 12:15 PM ^
October 27th, 2013 at 12:01 PM ^
October 27th, 2013 at 12:03 PM ^
I bet if you looked up msu's record as a favorite, and Michigan's record as an underdog, you would be very pleased with the numbers!
October 27th, 2013 at 12:07 PM ^
That would be my guess too, but I don't know where I'm going to get the historical record of pre-game Vegas odds. They don't necessarily correspond to our respective rankings.
October 27th, 2013 at 1:32 PM ^
I know we were the dog in 2005, when we were 2-2 and they were 4-0. Of course, we won and their season collapsed. The parallels between MSU under JLS and Michigan under RichRod were crazy.
October 27th, 2013 at 4:53 PM ^
Also, it appears that we have to win out to have any chance at going to the B10 championship gameLaying the egg @ PSU really hurts at this point
October 27th, 2013 at 12:44 PM ^
Dantonio is 6-0 against the spread in his Michigan games.
October 27th, 2013 at 12:05 PM ^
October 27th, 2013 at 12:21 PM ^
October 27th, 2013 at 1:22 PM ^
I don't think anyone on this team or staff will forget 2011. This team has a lot to prove. They might not win, but it won't be for lack of hunger.
October 27th, 2013 at 2:00 PM ^
I'm afraid of a beatdown like MSU gave the basketball team at Breslin last season. No one except Trey seemed ready to play that game, and MSU was hungry and had something to proveThat game came on the tail end of an absolutely brutal stretch of games (something like 5 in 13 days, all against good teams) when we were probably exhausted. Here we'll have had two weeks off before this game.
October 27th, 2013 at 7:06 PM ^
They are 7-1. Their seven wins came from only 2 teams that have a winning record (Iowa 5-3 and I-AA Youngstown State at 7-1). You back out of youngstown state the records of their opponents are 15-30. Not to mention I don't think they have faced a dual threat qb this year. And if they have, they haven't faced one like Gardner.
I don't know if we're going to win. It's going to be a good game. I just don't want to see the coaches stick with a stupid game plan if it's evident that it isn't working.
October 27th, 2013 at 6:51 PM ^
Must win for Michigan
October 27th, 2013 at 12:06 PM ^
October 27th, 2013 at 2:56 PM ^
and see that in the matchup of MSU's D and Michigan's O everything hinges on 12 guys on one side (MSU's) and one guy (Gardner) on Michigan's, I bet for MSU at home.
Michigan is my team, and I know we can win this game. But while I'm a lot more confident that Borges calls an inspired game than most people, I think a whole lot hinges on how we weather the early ugliness from MSU. If we are intimidated we will lose, and could lose handily. If we play them tough early and our confidence grows. . .
Hell, we need an inspired game from Mattison, too, a pick or some sacks to let Cook know we're not Illinois early. I want Dantonio fretting about whether to send in one of his other bad QBs by the third quarter.
October 27th, 2013 at 4:54 PM ^
and use the bubble screen or slants vs trying to run the ball
October 27th, 2013 at 7:08 PM ^
because that's too many men on the field for MSU.
October 27th, 2013 at 7:41 PM ^
they cheat.
No, I just f'd up.
October 27th, 2013 at 12:06 PM ^
It would be hard for me to take UM+5......I just dont trust Hoke/Borges on the road against a team with a pulse. We have seen 3 yrs of crap from them in this scenario.
October 27th, 2013 at 4:55 PM ^
during the bye week
October 27th, 2013 at 12:06 PM ^
MSU completely dominated the 2nd half, but they were lucky in the 1st half to not face a deficit. Illinois shot themselves in the foot, but good defenses do that to teams. It's going to be tough game, but I think we come out on top.
M Offense vs MSU D: I don't think they'll be able to tee-off like they could against Denard. Our best offense is Gallon/Funchess getting throws from Gardner, and Gardner scrambling. With 2 weeks to prepare I'm optimistic Borges will run a game plan that wil work, rather than the one he WANTS to work. Key will be to balance Gardner taking shots from that defense with plays that...actually work.
M Defense vs MSU O: They'll probably get some things of play action, but Michigan will be one of the better defenses they'll see. I don't expect much scoring from Michigan. Field position and turnovers may decide things.
October 27th, 2013 at 12:34 PM ^
October 27th, 2013 at 1:17 PM ^
October 27th, 2013 at 12:09 PM ^
The obvious: We won't be able to run the ball. Their coverage will lapse, but their pass rush won't. DG makes good decsions moving in the pocket, uses his feet when necessary, and the D is good enough to keep a horrible offence from scoring many points.
Michigan wins.
Go Blue!