Head to www.bcsguru.com. He has concluded that Oklahoma State will jump Alabama and play LSU. He also has Baylor jumping Michigan, but he has Georgia, Oklahoma, Houston and MSU falling behind Michigan, meaning Michigan winds up 13th and BCS eligible. He has TCU 18th, which I think would mean they're not BCS mandatory. He doesn't have his bowl predictions, but I wonder if Michigan might not wind up in the Sugar Bowl after all. If they do, it would seem to mean Alabama as the opponent, setting up back-to-back games with the Crimson Tide. BTW, the BCSGuru, who tends to root for Michigan, was the first to project Florida ahead of Michigan back in 06.
BCSGuru's Shocker -- and Good News for Michigan
I know he throws his track record around on his website (but honestly, who even knows if that's legit).....but he is the only one putting OklaSt in the BCS title game. I'll take my grain of salt now.
He has his picks up:
Michigan v. Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl
EDIT: Picks Alabama v. Stanford for the Sugar Bowl
I don't know about that. If OSU goes to the MNC game, then Fiesta will probably pick up Stanford. Did you know that the executive director for the Fiesta Bowl is a Stanford grad? I don't think with the proximaty and all that he would pass on Stanford.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
for us. In back to back games with Alabama - a Sugar Bowl and a Jerry Bowl - I like our chances to go .500
This will not happen. Sugar Bowl gets to pick first, and will pick Alabama as the most desirable team. Then the Fiesta Bowl will pick Michigan using its at-large pick.
that I fear you are not correct. I don't see any way we beat Bama and that defense this year. Next year is somewhat more plausible--except for the decimation of the defensive line via graduation, and that being the first game where BWC and others start, along with the o-line losses as well. I hope I'm wrong of course but...
We would most likely not play Alabama. Assuming Okie St goes to the national championship the BCS draw goes Sugar, Fiesta, Fiesta. Hard to see the Fiesta not picking the two best teams available (Michigan/Stanford)
Sugar Bowl had the first pick last year, but the Fiesta Bowl has priority this year. Taking that into account, it looks like this assuming M is top 14:
Fiesta: Alabama/Ok. St. vs. Stanford
Sugar: M vs. Kansas St./Boise St./TCU
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. WVU
Sugar would get the first pick because LSU is higher in the BCS.
More mis information on the board about the bcs in the last 2 days....Sugar gets first pick to replace LSU...then Fiesta gets to replace ok St and then gets their "first" pick.
....8:15 PM cannot get here fast enough.
Well he has no idea how the voters will vote unless he interviewed each of them last night so it is really not realistic to project.
He has a really really good track record with his projections. Okie St does not need a whole lot in the human polls to make the jump.
That's not correct Alabama was almost a unanimous 2, ok St needs to steal a ton of votes from not just bama but stanford too.
Numbers are relative, but BCS guru mentioned something about OSU only needing to gain 22 second place votes which he says is not that hard since voters tend to be short sighted. The biggest question is where the Harris Poll lines up.
22 2nd place votes might be right but you realize it's not like they were a unanimous 3 now, they are behind stanford on most ballots, people have to jump them from 4, 5 or 6 to 2 or 3.
given the hurt they put on Oklahoma last night and the aforementioned shortsightedness of voters. I think Okie State regained a lot of the respect last night that they had lost a couple weeks ago, even if Oklahoma wasn't actually all that good.
Baylor's computer ranking was pretty close to maxed out. There is no way they shoot up the human polls with 3 losses to be sitting at 11. I am not sure I have ever seen a 3 loss team ahead of the last 2 loss team from a BCS conference in a poll. If there has been a case, it is rare.
have us 12th. TCU is 18th and so ineligible.
also, Alabama is still projected 2nd.
Hopefully most of the AP voters don't vote like this guy:
He has Michigan 19th (!). Ahead of Michigan, he has 5 (!) 3-loss teams (Clemson, Baylor, Georgia, Michigan State, and Oklahoma) and 2 (!) 2-loss non-AQ (!) teams, TCU and Southern Miss (!!!!!!). Michigan is just ahead of Virginia Tech and Houston. He doesn't acknowledge that there is anything unusual about this. This is the most bizarre ranking I've seen with the exception of Sagarin's "Texas Tech is the best damned 6-6 team in the country" poll.
I hope all the AP voters vote like that, then we can all realize the AP is a sham. Luckily it doesn't figure into the BCS.
Well, googling his name produces the following link:
Where he explains why things like win/loss record don't really matter to him. This guy is the complete opposite of your typical voter.
Man, if wins and losses don't really matter, why keep score/play at all?
I don't entirely disagree with his methodology... but then he doesn't follow his own rationale at all.
He's clearly just trying to get people talking about him.
As much as I despise a LSU-Bama rematch, I am in the precarious position of pulling for it. I really want UM in the Sugar Bowl as it is less than an hour away from home. Would love to see us play here in the dome.
100% with you on this. Michiganin the Super Dome would make
me so so happy.
how many extra rooms do you have?
Shotgun House = one big room, sleep anywhere you can find floor space.
A giddy 3 hrs away here in Pensacola. My cup of excitement overfloweth.
Although I now think we'll play K-State in the Fiesta Bowl, I've said all along that if we play in New Orleans, I will go to New Orleans.
from me definitely would make that drive, if I can get a few of my buddies from Michigan to fly down. I don't see going by myself no matter how badly I want to go.
On bowl day, we're all one big happy family. Until something goes wrong in the game and the drunker family members get obnoxious and start fights with the neighbors. Maybe kick their Dawg or take their toilet paper and throw it at them or shoot at their Cardinal...
But hey, it's not a family gathering until there is a fight, right?
Seriously, make the trip. I went to the game in Florida last year, not knowing anyone, and I was amongst friends. Well, until the score was about 35-14 and then we were all in a bad mood...
When do the polls come out?
How do we know the Fiesta Bowl won't have fond memories of '06 and reward Boise State with a selection?
I will have to take only 1 vacation day to travel home. My daughter is stationed at Davis AFB. so GO OSU (NTOsu).
Maybe I have my tinfoil hat on, but I really don't see the powers that be trumping next years big "Jerry World" game by having us play Bama in a bowl.
OSU isn't jumping Bama. Sagarin has Bama at 2 so they need 40% of the coach's poll to put them at #2 and that is just not gonna happen.
get thrown out.
Is that you son? You gona take good old dad to the sugar bowl?
BCS blows . . . OSU lost to a weak Iowa State team . . . that should be enough to keep them out. Brutal.
OSU lost to a weak Iowa St team . . . that should keep them out of the NC .
Alabama didn't win their own division. That should be enough to keep them out of the NC game.
It's not like they haven't said "no rematches" to a team that lost by 3 before....
I live 5min away from the Diploma Dome. Please be the Fiesta, PLEASE!!!!
God damn it I hope Oklahoma State jumps Alabama. If that somehow means in a weird way that we don't get a BCS bowl bid, I'm actually fine with that. We were way above expectations this year and it's only the cherry on top, while I couldn't fucking stand seeing a title rematch (I would refuse to watch it). I know I'm in the majority here but this issue just pisses me off too much.