BCS Rankings, Big 10, & Michigan

Submitted by StephenRKass on

There is another post about BCS rankings & the Big 12. This post doesn't care about the Big 12, but is about the Big 10 and Michigan.

The current rankings have four teams bunched together, and one not far behind, all at 8 - 2:

  • 15  Michigan State
  • 16  Nebraska
  • 17  Wisconsin
  • 18  Michigan
  • 21  Penn State

I'm not going to go into all the permutations, but in a common sense way, whoever wins out will be in a BCS Bowl. However, that's not what will happen. Michigan State will win it's next two games, and play in the inaugural championship game. Wisconsin, if it beats Penn State, will also go. Penn State, if it beats Wisconsin, will go. I can't even begin to predict who will win the game in Indy.

Back to Michigan:  I like our chances to win our next two games, not go to the championship game, and end up with a decent bowl. I'm wondering if we beat Nebraska and Ohio, if we might sneak in as a 2nd Big 10 team going to a BCS bowl. Or would the loser of the championship game in Indy still be ranked ahead of us?

Well, its just speculation. I like Hoke's attitude:  focus on the games on the field, and the rest will sort itself out.

Quail2theVict0r

November 14th, 2011 at 10:01 AM ^

IF we win out we almost certainly would get the 2nd BCS bowl birth. You'd have Michigan at 10-2. Since we'd beat Nebraska and OSU that would mean that Nebraska would be out of the picture - and maybe not even ranked at that point. Whoever loses the big ten title game is gonig to end up with a 3rd loss on the season and since Michigan, hypothetically, would have come off two very big wins we'd likely be close to a top 10 BCS ranked team - sending us to a BCS game. I don't think a BCS game is going to pick a 3 loss big ten team and any way it shakes out - the loser of the title game is going to have a 3rd loss and maybe even drop out of the top 20 BCS standings. No way they're taken over a hypothetically top 15 Michigan team.

justingoblue

November 14th, 2011 at 10:07 AM ^

To put it in perspective, Michigan was passed over once in the BCS era. That was after Iowa dismantled us at home in 2002. Since MSU is either winning the BTCG and going to the Rose, or losing and going to the Capital One, and Iowa is not in any kind of BCS contention, we won't have a loss like that at 10-2. 

If we win out it will be an absolute shock to not go to the Sugar or Fiesta.

Quail2theVict0r

November 14th, 2011 at 10:13 AM ^

Exactly. Since every big ten team has at least two losses and even in a best case scenario for the big ten championship (MSU vs. Penn State) who currently only have 1 conference loss - one of them will end the season with their second conference loss and third all together. And since all the teams right now are ranked pretty close together, neither of those teams will be able to withstand the loss and not get jumped over by a 10-2 Michigan team who just finished the season beating Nebraska and Ohio State. Michigan would surely end up in the extra BCS bowl.

cmd600

November 14th, 2011 at 10:30 AM ^

I like a 10-2 Michigan's chances, but I wouldn't be shocked. If Stanford wins out, they're going to finish 6th or 7th, easily a few spots higher than Michigan. Even if Oklahoma loses that second game, they are just as big a draw as Michigan. I wouldn't be too surprised to see the BCS take Stanford and the 2nd Big 12 team over Michigan.

justingoblue

November 14th, 2011 at 10:39 AM ^

I still think Michigan is a much bigger draw than either Oklahoma or Stanford, given recent struggles and an equal or bigger national draw than Oklahoma.

I guess it wouldn't be shocking to get passed by Oklahoma for the Fiesta, but if it gets to the Sugar I think we have to be really, really high up on their list.

yeahrice

November 14th, 2011 at 10:50 AM ^

Michigan is definitely a bigger draw, crowdwise. The only thing going for Stanford is Andrew Luck. How badly does the bowl game want to feature a probable top 5 pick? Stanford does not travel well, so they might not sell out their allotment of tickets, hence the bowl committee might pass over them. Oklahoma, like Michigan, travels very well so seeing them get in would not surprise me at all. Also I think the Sooners win the Big12 anyways, so I do not think we would be competing with them. I don't know enought about Okie State to make any statements about how well they would follow their team to a bowl game.

cmd600

November 14th, 2011 at 11:07 AM ^

As far as I can tell, the Sugar Bowl is off the table, assuming the games fall as expected. They'll take Alabama with the very first at-large selection after losing LSU and they get the 2nd to last pick. Houston and the Big East champ will be all that's left for them. The Fiesta will get their choice of #2 teams in the Big 10, Big 12, Pac 12, and ACC.

maizenbluenc

November 14th, 2011 at 10:59 AM ^

a) lets not get ahead of ourselves here. Michigan still has two very competitive games to win to get into this position. (i.e., knock on wood)

b) if Penn State goes the the B1G championship game and loses to MSU, and if Michigan wins out, then I can see Michigan getting the second BCS berth (if the B1G even gets one)

c) if Wisconsin goes to the B1G championship game and loses to MSU, I think Wisconsin still may get the nod over Michigan

d) interesting question though: if MSU loses to either, would MSU or Michigan be that second BCS berth?

Bottom line: we want Penn State to beat Wisconsin, and Michigan to win out, and MSU to win the B1G for that scenario. Of course we want MSU to lose to either IU (not likely) or Northwestern (not likely but more possible) in the meantime. Then there is no question.

Kind of stomach turning rooting interests in there.

beenplumb

November 14th, 2011 at 10:04 AM ^

Whoever loses the B1G Championship will have three conferences losses, I believe. If we win out, that will put them behind us in terms of conference (and overall) losses. I'm no expert, but I think if that happened, we would have a leg up over them.

MichFan1997

November 14th, 2011 at 10:05 AM ^

That Michigan and msu win out, Wisconsin beats psu and msu, we have a 10-2 Michigan. I think we get the cap one bowl over msu in that instance. It would be like 1999 when msu beat Michigan and Michigan got the better bid.

GoBlogSparty

November 14th, 2011 at 10:08 AM ^

Seems like nothing good can come out of losing a conference championship game.

Actual: In 2007, When Mizzou went to the Big12 title game and lost to OU, Kansas leaped over them in the BCS standings and went to the Orange Bowl.

Hypothetical: If LSU loses in the SEC title game this year, there is a chance Bama leaps ahead and takes their spot in the title game.

To the victor of the champ game go the spoils, and the loser gets shafted.

justingoblue

November 14th, 2011 at 10:17 AM ^

If you look back, there are many more examples of your actual example. 1999-2010:


SEC BCS AL SEC Runner Up
Florida Cotton Bowl (MSU)
Tennessee Citrus Bowl (Florida)
None  
Florida Citrus Bowl (Tennessee)
None  
None  
None  
None  
LSU Capital One (Arkansas)
Georgia Outback Bowl (Tennessee)
Alabama BCS
Florida BCS
Arkansas Chick-Fil-A (South Carolina)

BXII BCS AL BXII Runner Up
None  
None  
None  
None  
None  
Oklahoma BCS Title (Oklahoma)
Texas Houston Bowl (Colorado)
None  
None  
Kansas Cotton Bowl (Missouri)
Texas Alamo Bowl (Missouri)
None  
None  

 

M-Dog

November 14th, 2011 at 10:38 AM ^

Yes, historically the loser of a conference championship game gets chumped in the BCS.  It's not fair, but you can count on it like clockwork.

With all of the top teams that have been losing, if Michigan wins out it is more likely than not that we wind up in a BCS bowl.

So . . . what does the dog do when he finally catches the car he's been chasing?  There are some scary good teams we would be facing in a BCS bowl game.  Careful what you ask for.

Still, I'd welcome that opportunity despite the odds.  Sure sign of progress, no matter what happens.

 

StephenRKass

November 14th, 2011 at 10:45 AM ^

I'm glad Hoke has the focus on Nebraska & Ohio. Just win those two.

Regarding a BCS Bowl, I wonder if our secondary is really up to a great passer (Luck?) And I wonder if our offense could manage against a really good defense (Alabama?) I think our player personnel are just not quite able (as a full team) to compete against the elite. Although, there's only one way to find out.

I do believe that should we win the next two, our coaching staff, particularly Mattison, will do an awesome job of bowl prep, and we will give whoever we face all they can handle and then some.

MI Expat NY

November 14th, 2011 at 10:18 AM ^

It makes sense though.  A ton of fans just travelled to a neutral site to watch their team lose.  Bowls are then asking them to pay for a second costly football trip in a month while still being disappointed.  It takes either an extremely strong fan base or no other clear option to make this reasonable to the bowls.

unWavering

November 14th, 2011 at 10:22 AM ^

Honestly, not getting a 2nd BCS bowl would help the image of the B1G, IMO.  Getting 2 BCS bowls every year is the reason why we have very tough bowl schedules, and our bowl records have been hurting because of it.  I like our chances at getting a managable bowl lineup if we just get one BCS bowl.

cmd600

November 14th, 2011 at 10:41 AM ^

I'd guess that by about January 8th, most people don't remember or care who won a non-BCS bowl that didn't involve thier school.  Michigan beating Georgia instead of Georgia beating Nebraska in the Capital One bowl won't have much of a lasting effect outside of the schools involved. Thus, we want BCS games. It raises money and the profile for the the conference and participating schools.

unWavering

November 14th, 2011 at 11:02 AM ^

For the most part, I agree with you.  However, you have guys like the ESPN bloggers saying how terrible the B1G's bowl performance has been over the past few years, including non-BCS bowls.  Also, I honestly don't think the B1G has two BCS caliber bowls this year, maybe not even one, so one less BCS bowl played is one less potentially lost.

cmd600

November 14th, 2011 at 11:22 AM ^

The positives from just being invited to the game drastically outweight the negatives of losing it. The SEC went 5-5 in bowls last year, but you don't see anyone going 'oh, maybe they aren't as strong as we thought'. The perception of each conference isn't going to change overnight. Get those BCS games, and get the money and recruits that come with BCS appearances, and worry about what bloggers have to say another time.

cmd600

November 14th, 2011 at 12:21 PM ^

Thats with OSU beating Arkansas. And yes, the SEC is a strong conference, no doubt about it. But the impression is that it is strong top to bottom, and that mediocre SEC teams would be very competitive if they just got a chance to play in other conferences, despite the results not bearing that out.

MI Expat NY

November 14th, 2011 at 10:13 AM ^

I think there will be a good shot.  You have to consider that BCS bowls have typically been hesitant to take the loser of a conference championship game.  

If you start picking out 10 teams, obviously suject to change, here are the guarantees:  Two of LSU, Alabama, Arkansas, winner of Oklahoma/Ok. St., Oregon, Winner of Clemson/Va Tech., Big East champ, Big Ten champ.  Leaves three open spots.  Now, lets go ahead and pencil in Houston as winning out, which is by no means guaranteed, but will be a surprise if they don't.  So there's two spots left.

I think if Oklahoma wins, Oklahoma St. still gets chosen somewhere, but the opposite might not be true.  The rest of the options are Stanford, Va Tech/Clemson loser, Boise State, Kansas State, Big Ten CG loser, and Michigan.  I would like our chances sitting at 10-2 and having just beaten Nebraska and OSU.  None of the other teams match our ability to travel and besides Boise St., they'd all have the same number of loses.  I'd say, win out and we're in the BCS (and hopefully drawing the Big East team...).

Edit:  I guess stanford only has one loss too, but their finish will be disappointing, and they don't travel well.

MI Expat NY

November 14th, 2011 at 10:33 AM ^

Taking it one step further, if you look at the order of selection, I'm going to back off a little from the win out and we're in statement.

Lets assume a SEC champ vs. Big 12 champ title game.  The Rose Bowl is set.  The Sugar Bowl and Fiesta Bowl get first selections.  According to the BCS website, the selection process would be Sugar Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Sugar Bowl, Orange Bowl.  If Houston wins out, somewhere in those selections has to be Houston and the Big East champion, likely the last two selections.  The Sugar Bowl is going to pick the highest ranked SEC team available.  Likely leaving the Fiesta to pick the top two at large teams.  An Oklahoma School and Stanford might do better at filling the seats than a two loss Michigan.  But it will be close.

If Houston loses, I think the Big Ten slips in a second school, likely the winner of Michigan/Nebraska, to the Sugar or Orange Bowl.

MI Expat NY

November 14th, 2011 at 10:53 AM ^

That's possible, but what if Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State?  Okie State would have just suffered disappointment, but having never been to a BCS bowl, I think they'd be likely to travel well.  I'd imagine many of their fans have been putting aside money, saying this is the year they travel to a bowl game.

Edit:  Also, could Oregon jump into the title game with an Oklahoma win?  If so, Stanford is practically guaranteed to be the Rose Bowl replacement.

mbrummer

November 14th, 2011 at 10:59 AM ^

Fiesta would absolutely grab a one loss OK State.  

In that scenario, Oregon in title, Stanford in Rose which I agree.  Fiesta would get next two picks.  I think it would grab OK state and Houston, thus leaving Oklahoma vs Bama in Sugar.

Sugar would be happy with this as well, but who knows subsection 4 says they can flip matchups basically on whims of Espn or hotel owners.