BCS Rankings, Big 10, & Michigan

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November 14th, 2011 at 10:56 AM
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StephenRKass
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BCS Rankings, Big 10, & Michigan

There is another post about BCS rankings & the Big 12. This post doesn't care about the Big 12, but is about the Big 10 and Michigan.

The current rankings have four teams bunched together, and one not far behind, all at 8 - 2:

  • 15  Michigan State
  • 16  Nebraska
  • 17  Wisconsin
  • 18  Michigan
  • 21  Penn State

I'm not going to go into all the permutations, but in a common sense way, whoever wins out will be in a BCS Bowl. However, that's not what will happen. Michigan State will win it's next two games, and play in the inaugural championship game. Wisconsin, if it beats Penn State, will also go. Penn State, if it beats Wisconsin, will go. I can't even begin to predict who will win the game in Indy.

Back to Michigan:  I like our chances to win our next two games, not go to the championship game, and end up with a decent bowl. I'm wondering if we beat Nebraska and Ohio, if we might sneak in as a 2nd Big 10 team going to a BCS bowl. Or would the loser of the championship game in Indy still be ranked ahead of us?

Well, its just speculation. I like Hoke's attitude:  focus on the games on the field, and the rest will sort itself out.

"It does not matter how many times you get knocked down, but how many times you get up." Vince Lombardi

 

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November 14th, 2011 at 11:01 AM | IF we win out we almost (Score:5 Normal)
hail2thevict0r
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IF we win out we almost certainly would get the 2nd BCS bowl birth. You'd have Michigan at 10-2. Since we'd beat Nebraska and OSU that would mean that Nebraska would be out of the picture - and maybe not even ranked at that point. Whoever loses the big ten title game is gonig to end up with a 3rd loss on the season and since Michigan, hypothetically, would have come off two very big wins we'd likely be close to a top 10 BCS ranked team - sending us to a BCS game. I don't think a BCS game is going to pick a 3 loss big ten team and any way it shakes out - the loser of the title game is going to have a 3rd loss and maybe even drop out of the top 20 BCS standings. No way they're taken over a hypothetically top 15 Michigan team.

OH-HOW-I-HATE OHIO STATE

November 14th, 2011 at 11:06 AM | Take care (Score:2 Normal)
fitty88
Joined: 11/27/2010
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Of business the next two weeks, and good things will happen bowl-wise. That is all.

November 14th, 2011 at 11:07 AM | To put it in perspective, (Score:1 Normal)
justingoblue
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To put it in perspective, Michigan was passed over once in the BCS era. That was after Iowa dismantled us at home in 2002. Since MSU is either winning the BTCG and going to the Rose, or losing and going to the Capital One, and Iowa is not in any kind of BCS contention, we won't have a loss like that at 10-2. 

If we win out it will be an absolute shock to not go to the Sugar or Fiesta.

Go Blue!

November 14th, 2011 at 11:13 AM | Exactly. Since every big ten (Score:5 Normal)
hail2thevict0r
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Exactly. Since every big ten team has at least two losses and even in a best case scenario for the big ten championship (MSU vs. Penn State) who currently only have 1 conference loss - one of them will end the season with their second conference loss and third all together. And since all the teams right now are ranked pretty close together, neither of those teams will be able to withstand the loss and not get jumped over by a 10-2 Michigan team who just finished the season beating Nebraska and Ohio State. Michigan would surely end up in the extra BCS bowl.

OH-HOW-I-HATE OHIO STATE

November 14th, 2011 at 11:30 AM | I like a 10-2 Michigan's (Score:2 Normal)
cmd600
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I like a 10-2 Michigan's chances, but I wouldn't be shocked. If Stanford wins out, they're going to finish 6th or 7th, easily a few spots higher than Michigan. Even if Oklahoma loses that second game, they are just as big a draw as Michigan. I wouldn't be too surprised to see the BCS take Stanford and the 2nd Big 12 team over Michigan.

November 14th, 2011 at 11:39 AM | I still think Michigan is a (Score:1 Insightful)
justingoblue
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I still think Michigan is a much bigger draw than either Oklahoma or Stanford, given recent struggles and an equal or bigger national draw than Oklahoma.

I guess it wouldn't be shocking to get passed by Oklahoma for the Fiesta, but if it gets to the Sugar I think we have to be really, really high up on their list.

Go Blue!

November 14th, 2011 at 11:50 AM | Michigan is definitely a (Score:1)
yeahrice
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Michigan is definitely a bigger draw, crowdwise. The only thing going for Stanford is Andrew Luck. How badly does the bowl game want to feature a probable top 5 pick? Stanford does not travel well, so they might not sell out their allotment of tickets, hence the bowl committee might pass over them. Oklahoma, like Michigan, travels very well so seeing them get in would not surprise me at all. Also I think the Sooners win the Big12 anyways, so I do not think we would be competing with them. I don't know enought about Okie State to make any statements about how well they would follow their team to a bowl game.

Biochemistry

Class of 2010.

 

November 14th, 2011 at 12:30 PM | *definite #1 pick FTFY (Score:1)
biakabutuka exp...
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*definite #1 pick

FTFY

November 14th, 2011 at 12:47 PM | I agree, but was trying to be (Score:1)
yeahrice
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I agree, but was trying to be more open. I was not impressed with him on Saturday at all tho. Must be his one bad game of the past couple years.

Biochemistry

Class of 2010.

 

November 14th, 2011 at 12:07 PM | As far as I can tell, the (Score:1 Normal)
cmd600
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As far as I can tell, the Sugar Bowl is off the table, assuming the games fall as expected. They'll take Alabama with the very first at-large selection after losing LSU and they get the 2nd to last pick. Houston and the Big East champ will be all that's left for them. The Fiesta will get their choice of #2 teams in the Big 10, Big 12, Pac 12, and ACC.

November 14th, 2011 at 4:43 PM | So what you're saying (Score:2)
M-Wolverine
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Is the Sugar Bowl is going to suck.

"I love him, he's a great coach, he's a great mentor, he's a great friend. He's every single thing you want a college coach to be, and he does it flawlessly." -David Molk

November 14th, 2011 at 11:56 AM | Michigan is definitely a (Score:1)
Lionsfan
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Michigan is definitely a bigger draw than Stanford. Last year they weren't even selling out their stadium, how likely is it that their fanbase is going to travel that well?

If you're doing nothing, how do you know when you're finished?

StraightDave owes me a steak dinner

November 14th, 2011 at 2:42 PM | posted from iPhone (Score:2)
jfoust81
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Okie St and OU will both be in a BCS bowl. Looks like it would be between Stanford and Luck as the main competition for the last BCS spot unless Houston loses. If Houston loses there will be an extra at large that a nonAQ will not take

November 14th, 2011 at 12:51 PM | I'm not able to start a (Score:1)
aaamichfan
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I'm not able to start a thread, so does someone want to post this to the board?
http://brett-mcmurphy.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/29532522/33310...

No more Paterno on the trophy.

November 14th, 2011 at 2:06 PM | Stagg Bowl - so the Big Ten (Score:1)
Picktown GoBlue
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is essentially playing for the same thing as Division III now. 

November 14th, 2011 at 11:17 AM | Back to back games against (Score:1)
Schembo
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Back to back games against Alabama, anyone?

November 14th, 2011 at 11:49 AM | I try to stay optimistic but (Score:2 Normal)
Hokemania
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I try to stay optimistic but that would be ugly...

Whatcha gonna do, little brother?

November 14th, 2011 at 11:59 AM | I think it depends on the Wisconsin - Penn State game (Score:2)
maizenbluenc
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a) lets not get ahead of ourselves here. Michigan still has two very competitive games to win to get into this position. (i.e., knock on wood)

b) if Penn State goes the the B1G championship game and loses to MSU, and if Michigan wins out, then I can see Michigan getting the second BCS berth (if the B1G even gets one)

c) if Wisconsin goes to the B1G championship game and loses to MSU, I think Wisconsin still may get the nod over Michigan

d) interesting question though: if MSU loses to either, would MSU or Michigan be that second BCS berth?

Bottom line: we want Penn State to beat Wisconsin, and Michigan to win out, and MSU to win the B1G for that scenario. Of course we want MSU to lose to either IU (not likely) or Northwestern (not likely but more possible) in the meantime. Then there is no question.

Kind of stomach turning rooting interests in there.

November 14th, 2011 at 12:16 PM | No bowl (Score:1)
coastal blue
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is going to take a 10-3 Wisconsin/MSU over a 10-2 Michigan.

November 14th, 2011 at 11:04 AM | Whoever loses the B1G (Score:1)
beenplumb
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Whoever loses the B1G Championship will have three conferences losses, I believe. If we win out, that will put them behind us in terms of conference (and overall) losses. I'm no expert, but I think if that happened, we would have a leg up over them.

@beenplumb

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November 14th, 2011 at 11:08 AM | MSU would only have one (Score:0 Redundant)
November 14th, 2011 at 11:10 AM | Nope, penn state and MSU only (Score:2)
hail2thevict0r
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Nope, penn state and MSU only have 1 conference loss but two losses all together.

OH-HOW-I-HATE OHIO STATE

November 14th, 2011 at 11:05 AM | on the assumption (Score:2 Normal)
MichFan1997
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That Michigan and msu win out, Wisconsin beats psu and msu, we have a 10-2 Michigan. I think we get the cap one bowl over msu in that instance. It would be like 1999 when msu beat Michigan and Michigan got the better bid.

Follow me on Twitter @gfraley05

November 14th, 2011 at 11:08 AM | Seems like nothing good can (Score:3 Normal)
GoBlogSparty
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Seems like nothing good can come out of losing a conference championship game.

Actual: In 2007, When Mizzou went to the Big12 title game and lost to OU, Kansas leaped over them in the BCS standings and went to the Orange Bowl.

Hypothetical: If LSU loses in the SEC title game this year, there is a chance Bama leaps ahead and takes their spot in the title game.

To the victor of the champ game go the spoils, and the loser gets shafted.

Your friendly neighborhood Sparty

November 14th, 2011 at 11:17 AM | If you look back, there are (Score:0 Redundant)
November 14th, 2011 at 11:38 AM | Yes, historically the loser (Score:3 Normal)
M-Dog
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Yes, historically the loser of a conference championship game gets chumped in the BCS.  It's not fair, but you can count on it like clockwork.

With all of the top teams that have been losing, if Michigan wins out it is more likely than not that we wind up in a BCS bowl.

So . . . what does the dog do when he finally catches the car he's been chasing?  There are some scary good teams we would be facing in a BCS bowl game.  Careful what you ask for.

Still, I'd welcome that opportunity despite the odds.  Sure sign of progress, no matter what happens.

 

M'Dog

November 14th, 2011 at 11:45 AM | Great Point (Score:2 Normal)
StephenRKass
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I'm glad Hoke has the focus on Nebraska & Ohio. Just win those two.

Regarding a BCS Bowl, I wonder if our secondary is really up to a great passer (Luck?) And I wonder if our offense could manage against a really good defense (Alabama?) I think our player personnel are just not quite able (as a full team) to compete against the elite. Although, there's only one way to find out.

I do believe that should we win the next two, our coaching staff, particularly Mattison, will do an awesome job of bowl prep, and we will give whoever we face all they can handle and then some.

"It does not matter how many times you get knocked down, but how many times you get up." Vince Lombardi

 

November 14th, 2011 at 12:03 PM | What does the dog do? (Score:2)
maizenbluenc
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I love it. Too funny an analogy.

November 14th, 2011 at 11:18 AM | It makes sense though.  A ton (Score:3 Normal)
LandonC
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It makes sense though.  A ton of fans just travelled to a neutral site to watch their team lose.  Bowls are then asking them to pay for a second costly football trip in a month while still being disappointed.  It takes either an extremely strong fan base or no other clear option to make this reasonable to the bowls.

November 14th, 2011 at 11:22 AM | The only exception that I can (Score:1)
GoBlogSparty
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The only exception that I can think of was 04 when OU lost to KSU in the Big12 title game and still went to the National Title.

Your friendly neighborhood Sparty

November 14th, 2011 at 11:25 AM | Alabama and Florida did it in (Score:0 Redundant)
November 14th, 2011 at 12:11 PM | Completely understandable (Score:1)
Lionsfan
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Completely understandable though, both teams were undefeated going into the Championship Game. I think unless that happens finishing Runner-up in the CG is BCS snub

If you're doing nothing, how do you know when you're finished?

StraightDave owes me a steak dinner

November 14th, 2011 at 11:10 AM | I don't think the Big Ten (Score:4 Normal)
JClay
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I don't think the Big Ten gets two BCS spots this year. SEC at large, Stanford, Houston, Oklahoma/OSU loser.

"Here we are at Ohio Stadium, in front of 10,000 alumni and 74,000 truck drivers." - Bob Ufer

November 14th, 2011 at 11:22 AM | Honestly, not getting a 2nd (Score:5 Normal)
unWavering
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Honestly, not getting a 2nd BCS bowl would help the image of the B1G, IMO.  Getting 2 BCS bowls every year is the reason why we have very tough bowl schedules, and our bowl records have been hurting because of it.  I like our chances at getting a managable bowl lineup if we just get one BCS bowl.

November 14th, 2011 at 11:34 AM | In addition, the B1G's bowl (Score:1)
Logan88
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In addition, the B1G's bowl lineup is probably the most difficult as well: 3 games against the SEC (all in their backyard), 2 games against the Big 12 (both in their backyard), Rose Bowl against Pac-12 (in their backyard...are you seeing a trend here?).

We ARE Michigan....COME GET SOME!!!

November 14th, 2011 at 11:52 AM | Forgetting about the (Score:2 Normal)
yeahrice
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Forgetting about the Pizza-Pizza Bowl. It is in the heart of MACountry

Biochemistry

Class of 2010.

 

November 14th, 2011 at 11:34 AM | also (Score:1)
MichFan1997
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Having Nebraska will help because every big ten team the finish ahead of gets slotted down compared to before, giving the conference stronger reps at lower bowls.

Follow me on Twitter @gfraley05

November 14th, 2011 at 11:41 AM | I'd guess that by about (Score:2)
cmd600
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I'd guess that by about January 8th, most people don't remember or care who won a non-BCS bowl that didn't involve thier school.  Michigan beating Georgia instead of Georgia beating Nebraska in the Capital One bowl won't have much of a lasting effect outside of the schools involved. Thus, we want BCS games. It raises money and the profile for the the conference and participating schools.

November 14th, 2011 at 12:02 PM | For the most part, I agree (Score:2)
unWavering
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For the most part, I agree with you.  However, you have guys like the ESPN bloggers saying how terrible the B1G's bowl performance has been over the past few years, including non-BCS bowls.  Also, I honestly don't think the B1G has two BCS caliber bowls this year, maybe not even one, so one less BCS bowl played is one less potentially lost.

November 14th, 2011 at 12:22 PM | The positives from just being (Score:1)
cmd600
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The positives from just being invited to the game drastically outweight the negatives of losing it. The SEC went 5-5 in bowls last year, but you don't see anyone going 'oh, maybe they aren't as strong as we thought'. The perception of each conference isn't going to change overnight. Get those BCS games, and get the money and recruits that come with BCS appearances, and worry about what bloggers have to say another time.

November 14th, 2011 at 12:48 PM | Couple things (Score:2 Normal)
funkywolve
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5-5:  is that after you take out Arkansas loss to OSU since OSU had to vacate the win?

When your conference wins 5 straight National Titles by 4 different teams, you're going to get a lot of respect.

November 14th, 2011 at 1:21 PM | Thats with OSU beating (Score:1)
cmd600
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Thats with OSU beating Arkansas. And yes, the SEC is a strong conference, no doubt about it. But the impression is that it is strong top to bottom, and that mediocre SEC teams would be very competitive if they just got a chance to play in other conferences, despite the results not bearing that out.

November 14th, 2011 at 1:21 PM | double post (Score:1)
cmd600
Joined: 11/17/2010
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double post

November 14th, 2011 at 11:37 AM | I agree with this. Even if (Score:1)
Logan88
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I agree with this. Even if they win out, UM would need Stanford and Houston to both lose a game to have any chance of getting an at-large bid for a BCS game. I don't think that is likely to happen.

We ARE Michigan....COME GET SOME!!!

November 14th, 2011 at 11:11 AM | Like the SEC in 2007 (Score:2)
archangel2k12
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Tennessee is MSU. Georgia is Michigan. Tennessee beats UGA in season, loses in ATL. Georgia goes to BCS bowl and crushes Hawaii.

Greater love hath no man than this, that a man lay down his life for his friends.

November 14th, 2011 at 11:13 AM | I think there will be a good (Score:2 Normal)
LandonC
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I think there will be a good shot.  You have to consider that BCS bowls have typically been hesitant to take the loser of a conference championship game.  

If you start picking out 10 teams, obviously suject to change, here are the guarantees:  Two of LSU, Alabama, Arkansas, winner of Oklahoma/Ok. St., Oregon, Winner of Clemson/Va Tech., Big East champ, Big Ten champ.  Leaves three open spots.  Now, lets go ahead and pencil in Houston as winning out, which is by no means guaranteed, but will be a surprise if they don't.  So there's two spots left.

I think if Oklahoma wins, Oklahoma St. still gets chosen somewhere, but the opposite might not be true.  The rest of the options are Stanford, Va Tech/Clemson loser, Boise State, Kansas State, Big Ten CG loser, and Michigan.  I would like our chances sitting at 10-2 and having just beaten Nebraska and OSU.  None of the other teams match our ability to travel and besides Boise St., they'd all have the same number of loses.  I'd say, win out and we're in the BCS (and hopefully drawing the Big East team...).

Edit:  I guess stanford only has one loss too, but their finish will be disappointing, and they don't travel well.

November 14th, 2011 at 11:33 AM | Taking it one step further, (Score:1)
LandonC
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Taking it one step further, if you look at the order of selection, I'm going to back off a little from the win out and we're in statement.

Lets assume a SEC champ vs. Big 12 champ title game.  The Rose Bowl is set.  The Sugar Bowl and Fiesta Bowl get first selections.  According to the BCS website, the selection process would be Sugar Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Sugar Bowl, Orange Bowl.  If Houston wins out, somewhere in those selections has to be Houston and the Big East champion, likely the last two selections.  The Sugar Bowl is going to pick the highest ranked SEC team available.  Likely leaving the Fiesta to pick the top two at large teams.  An Oklahoma School and Stanford might do better at filling the seats than a two loss Michigan.  But it will be close.

If Houston loses, I think the Big Ten slips in a second school, likely the winner of Michigan/Nebraska, to the Sugar or Orange Bowl.

November 14th, 2011 at 11:41 AM | Fiesta Bowl (Score:1)
mbrummer
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I came up with the same information but different conclusion.  I don't think the Fiesta would want Oklahoma for th 4th time in 6 years, espeically paired with Stanford.  Pairing two teams that might not travel is dangerous, OU for fatigue and Stanford for indifference.

I expect nothing and therefore never disappointed.

November 14th, 2011 at 11:53 AM | That's possible, but what if (Score:1)
LandonC
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That's possible, but what if Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State?  Okie State would have just suffered disappointment, but having never been to a BCS bowl, I think they'd be likely to travel well.  I'd imagine many of their fans have been putting aside money, saying this is the year they travel to a bowl game.

Edit:  Also, could Oregon jump into the title game with an Oklahoma win?  If so, Stanford is practically guaranteed to be the Rose Bowl replacement.

November 14th, 2011 at 11:59 AM | Agreed (Score:1)
mbrummer
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Fiesta would absolutely grab a one loss OK State.  

In that scenario, Oregon in title, Stanford in Rose which I agree.  Fiesta would get next two picks.  I think it would grab OK state and Houston, thus leaving Oklahoma vs Bama in Sugar.

Sugar would be happy with this as well, but who knows subsection 4 says they can flip matchups basically on whims of Espn or hotel owners.

I expect nothing and therefore never disappointed.

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