The way things played out is concerning... I don't know if Michigan would move up to 14th even with a victory
BCS ranking-- UM Fifteenth
Perhaps not, but if we beat Ohio, we'll be pretty much gaurenteed to move up one spot after the loser of the CG drops.
If MSU wins, they stay ahead.
Wisconsin is barely behind us, so I am almost sure is Wisconsin wins they leapfrog us. Same with South Carolina Clemson game
Either Wisconsin or MSU will fall below or stay below (Wiscy) Michigan(if they win) after this week of the BTCG. Georgia will fall back if the lose the SEC championship. The loser of the OK v OK state game could fall behind Michigan. And there are still plenty of upsets to be had in the next two weeks.
There is a huge gap between us and Sparty... I fear Georgia could stay ahead of us even with loss to LSU, Sparty would stay ahead of us with win, Wisky would jump us with win, and if OU wins they both stay ahead of us
Georgia could still lose to Georgia Tech. Plus, if the game isn't even close, then they will probably drop at least 4-5 spots.
Thank you for introducing me to the invisible K.
He has a nack for doing that I thought you would've nown.
All this talk about "beating Ohio" has me concerned. It's discussed like it's a foregone conclusion. I remember when OSU was a clear favorite in '95 and '96 and they were disappointed each time.
I understand that Michigan has a better O, better D and they're at home. All indicators point toward Michigan. That scares me. It's going to be a loooong week.
you are comparing this year to an arbitrary year to support your paranoia regarding Ohio. Can't blame you, obviously everyone knows this isn't a forgone conclusion...
But you can't ignore the facts:
We have a better team.
We are undefeated at home.
OSU's offense is anemic / UM's defense is solid.
c'mon dude, there's nothing wrong with a little optimism. Dont be such a Debby Downer.
edit: on a side note - does ANYONE actually think that K-State is better than UM?! like, are you kidding me? same goes for a few other teams up there like your classic overrated South Carolina team (that is without Lattimore); or an Oklahoma team that has a loss to 5-6 Texas Tech. Beating OSU and finishing 10-2 will remove all doubt that UM is back, and the rankings will reflect this.
OSU has had a shitty season so this game is like their super bowl. They have no pressure so it wouldn't surprise me if they used all four downs a lot and if their playcalling was more aggressive than it has been.
Their defense is still solid and they will be ready to play.
UM has a superior team and although nothing is certain I don't see them slipping in this game. Yes Ohio may be gunning for us but what are they playing for? Pride? There is so much uncertainty and distraction swirling around that program right now. They're coach is most likely gone, they're probablly facing NCAA penalties, recruting may be down, they're already dealing with distractions that go along with a coaching search and a rumor mill working overtime, they have a freshman quarterback that is coming into a loud BIG House for the first time who already has issues throwing the ball and to top it all off you have a team in UM that has suffered humiliation at the hands of Ohio for 7 years. This one has the makings of being real ugly.
Remember the comments of the WR about "taking care of business"?
I doubt we play not to lose. We're the ones in need of delivering a payback statement.
If we are at #15, we should be able to raise a spot after all the regular season games and conference championships are played. That's all we need to be BCS eligible. Georgia should go down.
Overall though, I agree a victory over Ohio is the only really important thing left this season.
One of NW and Wisconsin/PSU . Beat Ohio
Do we really want a BCS bowl? What if the same thing happens as did last year, we get into a better bowl than we deserve and we get our asses handed to us.
I would rather be in the capital one or the Outback, and have a good competitive game.
yes. I happen to be a season ticket holder. And I watched a mediocre Iowa team and a little better than mediocre MSU team beat us quite handily.
I know we are a better team this year. A different team. But there is no way we would stand up against a good SEC team yet.
R U SRS?
we were at the MSU 5 with 4 minutes to play down by 7
and we should have had an opportunity to tie Iowa with a 2 point conversion but for a shitty call. So, what's ur defnition of a close game then?
I take your point. they were close games. But we were intimidated and dominated by MSU and choked against Iowa (I am not talking about the blown calls, just much of the game). Thing is, they are both a little better than mediocre teams.
I am not trying to be downer here. All I am sayin is that last year's bowl sucked bad, and I would hate to have that happen again.
Might get Arkansas in Cap One or Outback or Houston in Sugar or Ok State in Fiesta. Your presumed fear of an SEC team argues for a BCS bowl as an easier match-up.
You never aim low. With the way this team has been playing and peaking as of late, UM is very arguably a top ten team. There aren't really any teams this year that I think could just blow UM out of the water - yes including LSU.
What is with all this negativity? Why wouldnt you want to play in a bcs game? We are a solid team. Not a great team, but certainly bcs worthy if we beat tsio. This is not last year. What is it going to take for you guys to realize we can hang with anyone? We all should want to play a top 10 team to prove to everyone that Michigan is back. You people who say that you hope Michigan doesnt play in a bcs bowl bc we might get our asses beat make me sick.
Agree!!! You bitches are not real fans if you don't want us to play a top ten team.... We aren't in the WAC
If we can get into the Sugar against Houston, that would probably be the easiest matchup we could hope for. If we're in the Fiesta we're playing Oklahoma or Oklahoma State. At this point, we'd likely be playing Arkansas in the Capitol One, possibly falling to the Outback against South Carolina or Georgia. I don't think life gets much easier on the field playing the 3/4 pick out of the SEC compared to the BXII/Non-AQ champ. Plus, recruiting would benefit a lot from the month of media hype leading up to a top level bowl.
I just read Scouts bowl projections, granted they are projections. But they have us playing Houston in the Sugar Bowl.
Um yes please!
i would love to play Colt Brennan's Houston squad.
Assuming two SEC teams in the title game and Michigan is the Sugar Bowl's choice, expect them to play the Big East champ. The way the selection process works, the Sugar Bowl would get the first and last at-large choice. I'd assume the last choice would be the Louisville/Rutgers *champ*.
Edit: I read it wrong. The Orange Bowl is going to get stuck with the Big East Champ.
Guaranteed & likely losses remaining:
• Wiscy/MSU/PSU guaranteed two Ls | we'll be ahead of the two losers a.s.
• Georgia likely L (GT & LSU) | jump a.s.
• S Car possible L (Clem) | jump a.s.
• OU/ntOSU guaranteed L | jump possible
• VT/Clem guaranteed L | VT jump possible
For us to beat Ohio and nothing above to happen to move us up one spot is very unlikely.
Logic is beautiful...
of the two teams that lose in the next two weeks. Not the B10 champ (unless it's Sparty after a NW loss.)
Georgia's gotta play LSU in the SEC champ game. (Plus they've got a decent GT next week). The odds of them winning both are very low.
One spot up is all we need.
Okay first let me say that there is no worst case scenario if we beat Ohio. Everything is good if we win Saturday. In terms of bowls, however, here's how we don't move up to top-14:
14) Michigan St wins out, or Wisconsin wins out and replaces MSU ahead of us
13) Georgia either wins out, or plays the SEC champ game tight so they aren't really punished and stay ahead of us.
12) South Carolina wins out.
11) K St wins out.
10) Oregon wins out.
9) OU wins out; OSU is still probably ahead of us.
8) Houston wins out.
7) Boise St wins out.
6) Standord wins out, beats ND (which is a potential upset here).
5) Va Tech wins out.
4) Even with a loss, OSU stays ahead of us.
3-2-1) All are too far ahead to slip below us.
Exactly what I'm worried about too. Even if SC loses to Clemson, Clemson could also leap us
or a hot, presently out-of-the-BCS-Top 25 Virginia if Virginia wins at home against VT next week.
There's lots of ways for the barrier between Mich & BCS-Top 14 land to be broken.
is actually the probable outcome, except OU beating Ok St (maybe 50-50) and then the big one is Georgia. Chances of them winning both of their next two games is very small. But then when you consider the odds of all of those things happening as a whole, we are almost assured a top 14 ranking provided a win this weekend.
How in God's name is Oklahoma number 9?
Shows how ridiculous all of these computer rankings are - Oklahoma ranked 4-8 in all of them - that they are above other two loss teams with a loss AT HOME to a 5-6 Texas Tech team which has lost games by scores of 41-7, 52-20 and 66-6.
I thought the computers took things such as past seasons and brand out of their rankings?
And that Iowa loss is killing me right now. We win that game and we might even be in talks for a shot at LSU.
"We win that game and we might even be in talks for a shot at LSU. "
probably not, considering we'd still need an MSU loss to play for the Big 10 title.
And really, even if we didn't win the conference, at 11-1 and the loss much earlier in the season, there might not have been anyone else left.
Worst case scenario is Georgia beats lsu in the championship game. Georgia gets an AQ, and lsu stays #2 (it's possible). Sec then takes 3 bcs spots, leaving Michigan out even if they break the top 14
can't take three teams from a conference. Georgia and one of LSU, Arkansas, and Alabama would go to the BCS.
"No more than two teams from any one conference may receive berths in BCS games unless two non-champions from a BCS conference finish as the top two teams in the final BCS standings, in which case they will meet in the National Title Game while their conference champion will play in their conference's BCS bowl game."
Discussed in another thread -- there is an exception. The BCS takes #1 and #2 and the conference champs from the 6 BCS conferences, no exceptions. This trumps the no 3 from a conference. So, if the SEC conference champ is not #1 or #2, but other SEC teams are #1 and #2 then the SEC gets 3 BCS teams.
"Kill them all and let God sort them out."
- Arnaud Amalric
MSU thinks that it's a lock that they'll win their next two games which is quite amusing.
I don't get the SEC East love by the computers, or the Auburn love either. The Big XII actually seems somewhat deep (although without any defenses) - but Georgia's best win is over Auburn, while SC's best win is over Georgia. Auburn at least beat SC, but got taken to the woodshed by every other ranked team they played. I get that human voters see "leading the SEC East" and rank them up there - but what do computers see in these teams that I'm missing?
Likewise, Arkansas - congratulations on beating overrated Auburn and SC, and escaping against A&M and Vanderbilt. And getting blown out of the water by the #2 team in the country. Prepare to be a two loss team, both by blowouts. You'll have proved to me that you're slightly better than Clemson.
Polls have human bias, which is understandable, and somewhat desired. What did the B12 and SEC do to get an advantage in the computers over the B1G? Is that all based on Penn State losing to Bama?
we'll definitely be in the top 14, qualifying us for the BCS. no doubt about it. none whatsoever. don't waste any time worrying about it.
They are higher than I thought...i was thinking 16th, but fifteenth awesome. They have a real good chance of getting in since I dont think the following teams will be outside looking in on BCS Games:
1. South Carolina - Spurrier, what can I say! No Lattimore, No BCS. Also there are three teams better than you.
2. Arkansas - Going to get Honey Badgered and miss out.
3. Georgia - Loses in SEC Championship Game. Richt keeps job. Good for him.
4. Boise State - Houston will be a conference champ keeping them out oh but one more time!
5. Oklahoma - I predict a 45-35 OSU win next week in Stillwater, especially after the Iowa State debaucle.
Well by my calculations that puts Michigan at a 10th best BCS option. No wonder the Fiesta Bowl Representative was there this past week. The question is who would you want to play?
Id play Houston...oooohhhweee our Defense on that Keenum dude!