Are you twelve and drunk?
BCS CHANCES with a OSU win
However,those are def. While station in Germany (85) my roomate had just about every air-force 1's and mj's,at the time I don't recall him having those.
dude that was lol funny to me .anyone else?
I give us a 100% chance of making a BCS game.
This would be my luck seeing as I already bought tickets to the Outback and Capitol One bowls.
why would you buy tickets now....?
Buy tickets early and get good seats for face value, or wait til bowl announced and pay 200% face value for upper level. Those were the 2 mose likely bowls for weeks.
Don't usually sell out...?
Outback and Capitol one bowl do more often than not seeing as how they are Big and and SEC #2 and #3. If Michigan ended up in either one against the likes of Arkansas or Georgia, they would sell out.
Bowl tickets get distributed in weird ways (a third of Rose Bowl tickets belong to the Rose Bowl organization rather than the participating teams). If it isn't the national title game you can pretty much show up with a bag of pennies and get tickets ten minutes before kickoff to any bowl game.
Yes, but would you be in the first 10 rows? I don't enjoy sitting in the upper deck for the same price as people that are 5 rows away. Outback bowl tickets are same price all around. Buying tickets early is what got me 4th row blue line for the Frozen Four NC last year for face value. While the people around me paid 600+.
was the last bowl game i went to and it definitely was sold out
Jeez, have fun peeping out little brother. They are the capital one bowl. Almost good enough.
Yeah. Brady had on fiesta bowl underwear today.
One two loss Big Ten team is all that will be going to the BCS. I will be shocked if the conference sneaks in a second team unless there is a total meltdown by the top 12.
It's a two loss Big Ten team or a two loss Big 12 team or a two loss ACC team. If it's Michigan, Oklahoma State, and Va. Tech, who do you think they're choosing?
Do you want to see a Wolverine - Bearcat showdown in the Orange Bowl?
I know that the BCS has very substantial financial implications for the school, but I don't want this team to be in the "can you believe this is a BCS game" game. Might very well rather see them play an SEC power.
Houston has yet to play @ Tulsa. Tulsa has a similar potent offense, but also a pretty ok defense, and homefield. When we win we'll likely get a birth with the second place record in the conference (that is after one team loses in the B1G Championship Game) We'll likely get matched up with an SEC school since so many of them will end with 1 or 2 losses and be ranked in the top 10 or 15. I'd guess they'll pick either the Pac or Big 12 champ to play Bama and we'll play Arkansas if they lose to LSU.
You do realize that the Fiesta Bowl gets to choose their first team before the Sugar Bowl gets to choose their second right? Big 12 Champ will be in the Fiesta Bowl...
Not to mention that if Bama and LSU are in BCS games, Arkansas can't make it...I'm not sure you have any clue what you are talking about.
No conference can have more than 2 BCS teams. Arkansas will prob be Cotton bowl bound. Best bet for Michigan is OU beating OSU or Tulsa beating UH. I would say if either of those happen, we're in. If neither of them happen it will come down to us vs. Oklahoma for the last at-large.
has been so-so, but still significantly better than OKStates. I'm hoping that and homefield is the difference for them. Even though Okstate has the bye and is coming off of a loss, I'm still hoping they won't suddenly grow a defense. Where would they put Houston if they do beat Tulsa, though?
If Arkansas loses to LSU you can cross them off the BCS roster. Only two from any conference can play in the BCS. Incidentally, if the Pac-12 champ doesn't end up in the national title game they are contractually obligated to go to the Rose Bowl against the B1G champ (either Wiscy or Sparty). The pick order for at-large bids by the Bowl committees this year goes Fiesta, Sugar, then Orange. If Michigan wins Saturday I'd say they either head to Tempe to play the Big 12 (Ok St. or OU) or down to New Orleans for an early preview of next year's Bama-Michigan game in Dallas.
Here is a link to the BCS selection procedures - http://www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=4819597
Now I know, and knowing is half the battle. Am I right that the only time the B1G champ doesn't play the Rose Bowl is when the B1G champ is playing in the National Championship and that venue is not the Rose Bowl that year? Or if the Rose Bowl is the National Championship venue and the B1G is not playing in the Championship like when it was Texas v USC one year?
I think the only way the B1G champ doesn't go to the Rose Bowl is if they get selected for the NC game. You are right about Texas/USC but I think that when the NC game rotated between the bowl games. Now the NC is a separate game. So even if the NC champ game is played at the Rose Bowl venue, it is not the Rose Bowl (which would be played earlier).
"I believe they are around 85% (depending on who plays lsu) " - Michigan4lyfe
Our chances of going to a BCS bowl can be quantified almost precisely at this point based on your formula. What would the formula be, out of curiosity?
Incidentally, I essentially agree that those chances are pretty good if we beat OSU, but I want to know how you arrived at your conclusion. This is Michigan, fergodsakes.
Larger point, statistics and beer are a bad combination.
Dudes hammer drunk. Michigan in the BCS is why the BCS was created. If we win next week we will play in a BCS bowl.
Wow, you're more drunk than me. Good. You should be. Great day for us all. I'm so ready for next week. Go Blue. Always. Forever.
Beating Ohio would be bigger than any bowl game. If we go to a BCS bowl then great, but what does a BCS game matter if it isnt the national championship game?
This weekend's game is bigger than Sugar/Orange/Fiesta/Rose, let's win that one.
Beat Ohio, the rest is just details.
to lose again.
I agree. I think ND gets them. Stanford's pass defense is good, but not great, and looked particularly vulnerable against USC. And Cal's defense is playing well recently, so tonight is no cake walk.
I don't even think I want to neg this. I've posted drunk on MgoBlog before
As long as we beat Ohio State, I don't care if we play in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl. Actually, it might be sort of fun to attend a bowl game for a change.
I am amazed at how well this season has gone, but Michigan is not obviously one of the ten best teams in the country. I'd be plenty happy with ten wins, especially a win over OSU.
The game with TUOS is all that matters,along with the possiblity of finishing the month of november STRONG for the first time in quite awhile.
I'm simply sitting back enjoying this moment...the future looks soo bright.
I hate to be negative, but I don't think are chances are great. I see Houston, Stanford, Bama, and Oklahoma getting the 4 at-larges.
What if Oklahoma beats OSU? Stanford still has Notre Dame. Lots of football to be played. Not sure Michigan wouldn't get taken over a notoriously poor-traveling Stanford team, especially if it's to the Orange Bowl. As messed up as it sounds, an 11-1 Stanford team is by no means guaranteed a BCS bid.
get the Big 12 auto invite when they beat OK St......and MI will get an invite before a 2 loss in the last 3 Ok St team does...
They're the Big 12 champs and OkSt is probably not going to get an at-large bid. That would totally open things for Michigan.
Stanford will hang 50 on Notre Dame, though. Have no fear, the Irish are here.
The Fiesta Bowl will put OU and Okie State against each other.
Michigan is pretty much the first choice for an at-large after the NC replacements if they get the job done next week.
Both OSU's need to lose against their rivals (Oklahoma and Michigan) and then there really is no scenario where we are not in the BCS. If Oklahoma St. recovers against OU then BCS may still choose a two-loss Sooners over us but with us just having beat OUR big rival ... well, all I know is that I'd pick UM. Wouldn't you?
Any bowl in Florida, I'm going. Didn't go to the 2008 Capital One Bowl, wanted to punch myself in the face. Didn't go last year, wanted to punch myself in the face (because they got smoked, not because I didn't go). This year, not going to happen. I'm praying for the Orange Bowl (not going to happen) because the CEO at my previous hospital is on the OB committee and they are the official sports medicine provider for the orange bowl. Every year, they give out tickets to the staff (upper level, but who cares?) They get up to six tickets if they are not sold out. I may have some to give away if that is the case. We'll see.
Each season boils down to the ohio game. Win next week or the rest of the season didnt mean much. Yes a 9-3 record for a first year coach is very good. But a loss to msu and ohio is not ok.
LIQUIDATE OHIO STATE AND LET THE CHIPS FALL WHERE THEY MAY!
Nothing would be more satisfying to me than watching us play in a BCS game while MSU gets beat up again by the SEC in the Capitol One Bowl.
Its looking like itll be:
Big East Champ
ACC Champ (VT will not jump Michigan losing its last game of the year)
Big XII Champ (again a two loss team that lost their last game wont jump Michigan)
Big Ten Champ
Pac 12 Champ
I have to disagree with you on jumping a 2 loss OK State, Oklahoma, Oregon, or Stanford. Those teams have been in the Top 10 all year, I don't see us passing any of them if they both have 2 or fewer losses, even if it's the last game of the year (esp. if the loss comes at the hands of one of the others aka OK vs OK State).
How I see it:
2. Alabama (Or Arkansas, but assuming 2 SEC teams)
3. Oklahoma State
7. Wisco/PSU/MSU (Big Ten Champ, other two will have 3 losses) 8. Clemson/VA Tech (ACC Champ, if Clemson is loser they have 3, if VaTech they have 2)
9. Louisville, Rutgers, Cincy, WVU, Pitt (Big East Champ, others are yucky)
10. Houston / Boise State
Things to root for / going on right now:
1. Beat Ohio
2. Oklahoma to lose two of three to Baylor (now), Iowa State, & Oklahoma State (which would give them three losses). Also... it would help if K State loses to Texas (now) or Iowa State, since they are also a two loss Big 12 team ahead of us if Oklahoma falls.
3. Oregon to lose to USC (now) & Oregon State (which would give them three losses).
4. Stanford to lose to Cal (tonight) & Notre Dame (which would give them three losses).
5. In Theory:
Houston could lose to Tulsa next Friday (BTW, Tulsa is 8-3 with losses against OK, OK State, and Boise State; So VERY possible IMO.)
If TCU wins out, they win their conference (not Boise. If they do not creep into the top 16 in the BCS rankings (not top 12, thanks Big East) and Houston fell, then there would be no non-AQ conference automatic bid. And since at-large bids are mostly about the $$$, it's likely none would be chosen voluntarily.
6. Va Tech to beat Clemson, so the ACC at large has 3 losses instead of 2 and we can breathe a little easier. Although I still think we'd be chosen first over a 2 loss ACC team.
If you're from a non-auto qualifying conference, you have to be a conference champ to get in. TCU clinched the Mountain West today.
we have a 95% chance. It all depends on the way everything else goes. The way Michigan travels will be a big get for the bowls.
If the big east makes it, we should be in a BCS bowl. Bring on the Sparty billboards.
(1) Baylor needs to beat Oklahoma
(2) Oklahoma State needs to beat Oklahoma
Pretty sure we would get in over Oklahoma if that happened
a 3 loss OU team isn't making the BCS.
This is all great unless Sparty loses the Conference Championship. PSU or Wisky gets the autobid and Sparty gets the at large over us. Honestly though wouldn't you rather play Bama/Arkansas/LSU in the Cap One than Okie State in the Fiesta or Sugar?
BCS Bowl would give Michigan the National Stage for that night. Win or lose, only positives will come from that.
What exactly do we need a national stage for? We're not trying to build a program. We're not desparate for exposure. If we were we would be playing on Thursday nights like the entire ACC and Big Least are desparate to do. Everyone already knows the Michigan brand. I want to play the best team possible.
3-loss Sparty would absolutely not get a bid over us
I think they would. They beat us head to head and their third loss would come in the conference championship game that they beat us out for a spot in.
Wouldn't a 3-loss Wisconsin also get in ahead of us? All this scenario-running is fun, but I just want to beat Ohio and then see what comes next.
A conference champion loser rarely gets into the BCS (it's happened three times since 1998) and Sparty is not a team that would ever get a bid over us. There's a reason they went 11-1 last year and OSU got picked over them: they don't have a national name or big fanbase and thus don't bring in the money that the Fiesta would want.
We're in if we beat OSU, the only other team in the running is Stanford, IMO, and I think we get in over them 9/10 times.
The SEC is going to send its champion to the NCG, so the Sugar Bowl gets the first at-large pick to replace that loss. They almost certainly will pick the next SEC team for ticket sales. Then the Fiesta Bowl picks next (for a team to go up against the Big XII Champion) and may get to pick twice if the Big XII winner goes to the NCG. The OSU/OU loser ain't getting in at this point (and even if 2-loss OkSU or 3-loss OU were an option they wouldn't play each other again). The three loss B1G title game loser isn't getting in over 2-loss Michigan due to ratings and ranking. No bowl is picking the ACC title game loser and hoping their fans will come to Phoenix (same goes for any team in the Big East). No bowl is picking Houston/TCU if they don't have to.
If we beat OSU the Fiesta Bowl is going to pick between Stanford and Michigan (or maybe get to pick both). They will pick Michigan.
Losers in the conference championship games very rarely get picked for BCS bowls unless they are a top 5 team or something. Just the way it works out.
Sparty would absolutely not be picked over us for an at large if they lose the BIG championship game. They will have 3 losses, and probably not even be in the top 20. With a win next week we will be at least top 15, hopefully top ten. And we are the more attractive option over sparty anyways.
This conversation got more interesting with the night's festivities.
1) BigXII will only get one team; The loser of Bedlam will have 2 or 3 losses, and I can't see OkieState being chosen over Michigan.
2) ACC will only get one team: Bye bye Clemson
3) Houston must lose for Michigan to have a better shot
4) Stanford may be chosen over Michigan as an at-large for the Fiesta...
Even with all the fun with #3, #4, #5, and #7 losing...we still need help.
Agree with above posters; don't give two sh*ts where we play in a bowl as long as we beat Ohio.