BCS Breakdown per Brad Edwards, ESPN ($)
You need ESPN Insider to access the link:
http://insider.espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/7313473/oklahoma-state-bcs-title-chances-cfb
For those who don't have access, the important information is about the BCS title game and Michigan's BCS hopes.
Okie State will pass Alabama in the BCS standings if the voters of the Harris Poll have a change of heart. I hope they do b/c I don't see how you deny Michigan a rematch in 2006 but then give 'Bama one in 2011.
As for our beloved Wolverines, Edwards thinks we're in, and our site/opponent depend on who ends up #2, b/c that affects the choices of both the Fiesta and Sugar Bowls, as well as whether K-State or Boise make it.
- If Alabama is #2, the Fiesta will take Okie State, and Michigan goes to the Sugar to take on Boise State
- If Okie State is #2, the Sugar will take 'Bama, and Michigan goes to the Fiesta to take on K-State
December 4th, 2011 at 5:50 AM ^
I thought they would climb high enough to get in. Thanks for the post considering I just saw that link on ESPN two minutes ago and I don't have Insider.
December 4th, 2011 at 5:59 AM ^
He says Clemson might jump TCU and Virginia Tech might still stay in front of them. They do have to move up a few spots and beating UNLV isn't that impressive.
I wouldn't mind playing them, though. It'd be kind of cool for the Big Ten to get revenge over them for last year's Rose Bowl.
December 4th, 2011 at 7:16 AM ^
I think we get TCU.
December 4th, 2011 at 8:10 AM ^
Schlabach:
• With Houston losing, No. 18 TCU would receive an automatic BCS berth if the Horned Frogs finish in the top 16 of the final BCS standings and ahead of West Virginia. The Horned Frogs would probably end up in the Jan. 3 Allstate Sugar Bowl and their opponent would probably be No. 16 Michigan -- if the Wolverines climb at least two spots in the BCS standings. Michigan can only be considered for a BCS at-large spot if it finishes in the top 14.
December 4th, 2011 at 10:36 AM ^
TCU is projected to be #18 and ineligible. I for one seriously doubt that the Sugar Bowl would pick Boise State over Stanford.
It's either Michigan v. Stanford in the Sugar Bowl or Michigan v. K-State in the Fiesta Bowl.
December 4th, 2011 at 11:51 AM ^
will be an AQ and go to Fiesta.
December 4th, 2011 at 5:56 AM ^
Michigan versus Boise? That is a scenario I have not heard before. Would love to see it though.
December 4th, 2011 at 6:04 AM ^
We have decidedly sharper teeth, but they have Kellen Moore. This scenario would be intriguing too.
December 4th, 2011 at 6:27 AM ^
Interesting, though I'm not sure if the Sugar would do that. Sorry, but this year I think K-State is more deserving than Boise, or even us. I don't think Boise deserves their #6 ranking this year, and I'm usually in their corner for a title game.
December 4th, 2011 at 6:31 AM ^
December 4th, 2011 at 6:41 AM ^
He has Boise left out if Ok St moves up to #2. Maybe he has some insight into the Sugar Bowl committee's thinking, but I would have thought KSU would trump Boise.
December 4th, 2011 at 6:51 AM ^
December 4th, 2011 at 10:01 AM ^
I haven't paid much attention to them, so I may be off base, but isn't their record the usual K State product of beating nobodies and losing to the only good teams they faced?
December 4th, 2011 at 6:28 AM ^
December 4th, 2011 at 6:32 AM ^
The Sugar Bowl gets first and last at-large pick. Michigan (if Michigan moves up to the top 14) and Alabama (if Oklahoma State boots them out of the national title game) are the two most desirable at-large teams. To say that either of them would get picked last is ridiculous; we're not playing Alabama in the Sugar bowl.
December 4th, 2011 at 9:17 AM ^
Not sure if you're worried about us not getting picked for a bcs game, but IIRC, if we're in the top 14, the BCS has to take us. There's something in the rules about how bcs conferences with having two teams in the top 14 get automatically selected.
December 4th, 2011 at 9:26 AM ^
They do not have to take us if we're top 14. There is no clause that two schools from one conference in the top 14 must be taken. We are just "guaranteed" to be taken if we're top 14 because of the Michigan brand name and the money and eyeballs that it draws.
December 4th, 2011 at 9:59 AM ^
We are college football.
December 4th, 2011 at 10:09 AM ^
if we're in the top 14, the BCS has to take usThat is a true statement, but has everything to do with Michigan being the most profitable pick, and nothing to do with the BCS rules that attempt to constrain the bowls from taking the most profitable pick.
December 4th, 2011 at 9:26 AM ^
Fiesta is going to take Stanford for one of their two teams. Stanford _has_ to make the BCS because they will be in the final top 4.
Michigan/KState/Boise are in the running for the remaining at-large. All the major outlets assume that Michigan's alumni & fanbase will bring eyeballs for ratings and butts to fill the seats.
December 4th, 2011 at 10:25 AM ^
the at-large selection. Fiesta does NOT "have to" take Stanford as an at-large bid. Stanford will be a AQ if they are ranked #4 only (assumes LSU, OSU, Alabama are in the top 3.
Although it seems reasonable Fiesta will take Stanford, they will be in the top 14. Stanford is a close team so they are in good shape. We are college football so we are a good choice.
My prediction is: If Alabama is #2: it will be us in the Sugar vs K State. If OSU is #2 we are in the Fiesta vs Stanford.
December 4th, 2011 at 10:28 AM ^
Luckily I've booked three hotel rooms in both locations.
December 4th, 2011 at 8:11 AM ^
http://twitter.com/DanWetzel/statuses/143315670485041153
"BCS projections from CBS's @jppalm: Bama at 2, Michigan 12 tinyurl.com/3bxblan"
December 4th, 2011 at 8:40 AM ^
I really want Michigan vs. Baylor. Denard Robinson vs. Robert Griffin III. I hope this matchup isn't too awesome to exist.
December 4th, 2011 at 10:31 AM ^
That would be an awesome matchup. Unfortunately I doubt it will happen.
December 4th, 2011 at 9:29 AM ^
If it's not Houston (I was convinced we'd beat them handily), I do NOT want a non-AQ opponent. No real upside to winning, tons of bad press in losing.
December 4th, 2011 at 11:46 AM ^
Considered to be on par with some of the top BCS teams. They're ranked. Completely different than Houston since they had a lot of success in the past 5 years.
December 4th, 2011 at 10:17 AM ^
over us due to the long-standing association with the Big 12? (In the event that B12 champ Okie St goes to the NC game)
The Rose Bowl did take Illinois in 2007 after tOSU made the natl champ game.
There are 8 certain auto-qualifiers, and if TCU makes the Top 16, there would be 9, leaving only one remaining at-large. If that gets taken by "the B12 rep" instead of the most one-time profitable (us), then we could be left out.
December 4th, 2011 at 11:10 AM ^
It's not inconceivable, but the tradition of the Rose Bowl is 100x that of the Fiesta Bowl.
December 4th, 2011 at 10:17 AM ^
Michigan - Boise cannot happen. Boise did not win their conference, therefore cannot be invited. TCU is the only mid-major with a shot at a BCS game.
December 4th, 2011 at 10:18 AM ^
They can be invited. They are just not an autobid like TCU will be if they're a top 16. Boise St would have to get in as an at large, which granted is not very likely.
December 4th, 2011 at 10:32 AM ^
If TCU doesn't make it, then Michigan takes the #9 spot in the Sugar, leaving Boise to compete w/ KSU, Baylor, Oklahoma, & VT for the last spot. (Top 14 teams Arkansas & S. Car are inelgible due to the two-team-per-league restriction.)
Looking at those fanbases, I would think that the BCS would try to find a way to take Oklahoma (but not in the Fiesta in a do-over vs Okie St).
So while I don't think it's likely, it is possible, as KSU, Baylor, & VT have weak travelling fanbases. (But weaker than the Fighting Potatos?? I doubt it.)
December 4th, 2011 at 12:26 PM ^
From what I have seen they travel well. If they get to the BCS, they will sell all of their tickets, no question.
December 4th, 2011 at 11:33 AM ^
while I want the rematch to get scuttled and the SEC to get denied, but I really want to go to the Sugar Bowl and spend New Years in New Orleans.