Cool way to view the probabilities for each team to make each bowl game. Makes me sad to see ND along with KSU with the highest probability to make the NC.
For us, 59% change of Capital One, 32% Outback, 9% Rose.
If we do end up in the Capital One, looks like Georgia is the likiest openent.
Much to be played though... one upset this weekend and all this changes.
But Northern Illinois 39% chance for the NC??? That does not make sense.
Thought this was really cool
Cap One and Outback bowls
Cap One and Outback bowls usually take a team from the SEC East, while Cotton Bowl and Chick-Fil-A usually take SEC West teams. I don't think it is part of the contracts but it just seems to work out that way most of the time.
We ARE Michigan....COME GET SOME!!!
I call bullshit on Northern
I call bullshit on Northern Illinois
HA! I know someone that will be eating crow when the Huskies
make it to Miami for the championship game in January!
likiest?
I approve of this word.
Hahaha, thanks, hehehe
Hahaha, thanks, hehehe... I will not change it to most likely just for you ;-)
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Discussions that aims to find facts, highlight different points of view and strengthen opinion.
I feel for those who are
I feel for those who are color blind. They can't make heads or tales of that crap.
Use your words espn.
IMO LSU
Would be a very attractive matchup for the Bowl committee. Les Miles and Michigan storyline would be very intriguing.
doesn't Michigan still have a
doesn't Michigan still have a shot at a BCS game other than rose if we win out? we should slip into the top 14 pretty realistcally and with so much of the SEC all up there you would tihnk we would prolly get a look over some of the other options
See my post below.
See my post below.
Northern Illinois is 4 times
Northern Illinois is 4 times more likely to go to the National Championship game than we are to go to the Rose Bowl.
wat
Photography Facebook Page. Lots of Michigan sports photos. And planes, lots of planes:
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Barron-Photography/13379
My brother and I, at lunch
My brother and I, at lunch today, took a look at our BCS at-large probability, and it's not all that remote. Things that would need to happen (and totally could), in addition to us winning out (obvi):
1. Us jumping Louisiana Tech simply by beating OSU (or them losing).
2. USC and UCLA both losing (UCLA plays SC and Stanford, SC plays UCLA and ND, winner plays Oregon. Almost certain both teams lose at least once more).
3. Oregon State losing (they play Oregon).
4. Stanford losing (they play Oregon and UCLA)
5. Clemson losing (they play South Carolina).
6. Florida State losing (they play Florida).
7. Texas losing (the play K-State and TCU).
In almost all of these instances, the team in question would drop below us and we need to climb 7 spots to be BCS eligible. If Michigan is in the top-14 and a second Pac-12 or ACC team is not, we are guaranteed a bid. This doesn't include the less likely possibilities of Nebraska losing to Wisco in the BTCG, Oklahoma losing to WVU or OK St., or Louisville blowing one of their last couple.
At this point, if we beat OSU, I'd go so far as to say we have a better chance than not of getting an at-large bid. If we do, it will hinge on Clemson-South Carolina and if there are any Pac-12 upsets.
i would
i would still like nebraska to lose and we get the rose bowl... unlikely, but it would be nice
And to clarify...
...obviously we must win out, thus ending the regular season at 9-3. At that point, there are two paths to a BCS bowl at-large bid:
1) Nebraska loses one game sending us to the B1G title game which we must win. We would drop out of contention with a season-ending loss, a la MSU last year.
2) Nebraska wins out, leaving us with a 9-3 record and a little time off to watch the scenario you outlined above play out.
So my question here is: which is the more favorable situation for Michigan? Not necessarily the most desired situation, but the most favorable. I would argue all day that I would rather have a shot at the Rose Bowl in our own hands (again a la MSU last year), but is that the safest option? Taking our extrem fandom out of this, what would the statisticians say about Michigan's rooting interests regarding Nebraska in the final two weeks?
Is the risk of a 4th loss in the B1G title game worth the benefit of going to the Rose Bowl instead of a different BCS bowl? I guess it would depend on how much you value the Rose Bowl versus any other BCS bowl berth.
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference.
I don't see it happening.
I don't see it happening. OK, Clemson, and someone from the SEC are gonna be the at-larges this year.
Michigan had two very ugly losses this season on a very national stage. Getting outclassed against 'Bama and coughing up the ball 6 times against ND.
The "ugliness" may not matter at all
If
• Okla and Texas both lose (Texas likely, Okla reasonably)
• Oregon runs the table
• LaTech loses to either of the two higher Sagarin-rated teams left
• the ESS-EEE-SEE retains its claim on six Top 14 spots
• Mich moves into the Top 14 (replacing Stanf/Okla)
• either Louisville or Rutgers moves into the Top 14, (replacing Stanf/Okla)
then there will be three teams elgible for the three at-large spots, and the BCS will be stuck with us (provided we win out).
How I compile it
| BCS At-Large Sorting | ||
| RK | TEAMs (BcsRank) Record | |
| 1 |
Kansas State (1) 10-0 |
|
| 2 | Oregon (2) 10-0 | |
| 3 | Notre Dame (3) 10-0 | |
| 4 | Alabama (4) 9-1 | |
| 5 | Florida State (10) 9-1 | |
| 6 | Nebraska (14) 8-2 | |
| 7 | Louisville (19) 9-1 | |
| 8 | UGA(5)9-1 Fla(6)9-1 LSU(7)8-2 UTAM(8)8-2 SCar(9)8-2 | |
| 9 | Clemson (11) 9-1 | |
| t10 |
Okla(12)7-2 Texas(15)8-2 |
|
| t10 | Stanf(13)8-2 OrSt(16)7-2 UCLA(17)8-2 USC(18)7-3 | |
| 12 | La Tech (20) 9-1 | |
| 13 | Michigan (21) 7-3 | |
| 14 | Rutgers (22) 8-1 | |
| 15 | Texas Tech (23) 7-3 | |
| 16 | Okla St (24)6-3 | |
| 17 | Washington (25)6-4 | |
At present, there are
• 7 Auto-qualifiers
• + 4 Top 14 BCS but not Top 2 Conf
• - 1 Non-Top 14 Auto-qualifier (Louisville)
• = 10 non-at-large Top 14 spots taken
or more simply, there are four teams presently elgible for the three at-large spots.
As to us moving up, LaTech finishes with Utah St & San Jose St,
both ranked ahead of LaTech in the Sagarin poll
• LaTech 52 Predictor, 73.50, 9-1
• UtahSt 21 Predictor, 83.19, 8-2
• SanJSt 32 Predictor, 78.47, 8-2
• If Oregon wins out, all four in the PAC-10 logjam take a loss
• I think the next most likely spot to open would come
from both the Okla & Texas pair losing
| Oklahoma Sooners | 7-2 |
| DATE | OPPONENT |
| Sat, Nov 17 | @West Virginia |
| Sat, Nov 24 | vs #24 Oklahoma St |
| Sat, Dec 1 | @TCU |
and
| Texas Longhorns | 7-2 |
| DATE | OPPONENT |
| Thu, Nov 22 | vs TCU |
| Sat, Dec 1 | @ #1 Kansas St |
• And while Florida St & Clemson do play Florida and S. Carolina, respectively, they each only have one loss. So I think they'd also have to lose to Maryland and NC State, respectively.
• Finally, an underdog stealing an AQ spot in the PAC-10 (e.g. USC) or ACC (e.g. Miami) would just push Oregon or Florida St into an at-large spot. (The B12 doesn't have a championship game.)
Wait
Does that mean we are most likely to play FLA/Geogria/SCarolina?
Strength equipment is expensive and guarantees you nothing. A strong will is free and can give you everything you want.
Funny thing - if we play in
Funny thing - if we play in the Citrus Bowl, we'd be playing the #3 SEC team, certainly a top-10 team. If we make a BCS bowl, our opponent options are most likely Louisville, Florida St or the #2 SEC team (who will be only negligibly better than the #3 SEC team).
the Northern Illinois must be
the Northern Illinois must be a mistake
-UM class of 2018
Nate Silver, can you fix the
Nate Silver, can you fix the BCS?
Hoping for a minnesota
Hoping for a minnesota miracle! I want our boys in pasadena
"This is Michigan for God sakes" -Brady Hoke
Someone seriously needs to
Someone seriously needs to make a "rooting guide" for the next couple of weeks ala what is usually done when we are on the bubble.
Root for Oregon and the SEC.
Root for Oregon and the SEC. Root against Texas, Oklahoma, LaTech, and Nebraska.
Thought this was really cool until I noticed the Northern Illinois thing. Obviously this needs some work. I noticed TAMU wasn't listed under the Capital One bowl at all either, which was being projected by somebody a few days ago.
For the record, I'm not a eugenicist.