After talking with Brian and Seth I have decided to employ a bit of a rating scale when it comes to offered prospects and prospects I outline in the "Names To Watch" series.
I noticed that I almost always end my mini-interviews and introductions with a sentence that looks something like, "I think Michigan's chances with him.....", but with no actual level of measurement. From now on, offered prospects will be rated on the following scale:
0 - Not interested
1 - If he visits, let's talk
2 - Probably Top 15
3 - Probably Top 5
4 - Probably Top 2/3
5 - True Blue Lock
This gives a bit of a measurable value to where a recruits interest level is, but isn't concrete and is also easy to adjust as visits happen, other offers roll in, and relationships are built.
The "Names To Watch" scale could be a little tougher to nail down, but I'll still attempt to put some value on how serious the interest is from both parties. A lot of kids love Michigan but don't really have much of a chance to earn an offer. On the flip side, sometimes the coaches would love to have a kid, but the chances just aren't very realistic so an offer may not materialize.
Names To Watch
0 - Not going to happen
1 - Doesn't look good right now, but we'll see
2 - 50/50, yes or no, wouldn't be surprised
3 - It looks like an offer could come in the future
4 - I fully expect an offer to come
5 - Guarantee this kid is offered
As I said above, this could be a little harder to gauge because I'm not in the war room with the coaches. I have some contact with the staff, but it's limited and it's against the rules to really talk about the kids before they sign anyway.
I hope these numerical values give some insight as to what I have been able to learn first hand from the recruits, their coaches, or their parents. I am open for suggestions involving the scale but plan to start using this, or some version of it, moving forward.