BB: Quick Look at Nova

Submitted by alum96 on

I am sure Ace will have something more comprehensive later today but a quick fly by of tonght's basketball opponent.

First 4 games:

  • W v Lehigh 77-66
  • W v Maryland Eastern Shore 81-44
  • W v Bucknell (YTB) 72-65
  • W v VCU 77-53

Obviously transitive property is not to be trusted but the Bucknell game was 65-65 with 2 minutes to go so that box score is probably the best to show how they will play a close game.  They gave up 32 to Chris Hass.

Nova (not Gary) has a 3 guard lineup which is a positive for a team like Michigan which is suffering some growing pains up front and has continued its issues of defensive rebounding from parts of 2013.   Oregon is not very tall but as Brian noted they have a lot of "springy" 6'6 types who crashed the boards and overwhelmed UM.  Which is what UK did last spring, except with 6'10 guys.  I expect defensive rebounding to be an issue all year and cause many hairs to be pulled out of head.

Nova has a 9 man rotation but even against VCU players 8 and 9 were relatively limited so we'll focus on the top 7.  That is 4 guards and 3 forwards/centers.  Nova is very well balanced with any of 6 guys averaging between 8.5 and 12.5 pts per game, so on any given night any can go off for 15+.  We have a "Big 3" - they have a "Medium 6".  They jack up tons of 3 pointers from the guards/wings, along with 1 of their forwards (22 a game from those 5 players alone).   They also have excellent steal data.

Big men:

Relative to UM this is an experienced group of big men.  But at this point anyone who can roll out more than 2 freshman is an experienced group of big men vs UM.  

  • Jenkins is currently the 3rd leading scorer at 10.5 ppg but rebounds poorly for his size (1.3 rpg)  For a human tree trunk he takes a lot of 3s, 5 per game.  46% shooter, 33% behind the arc.   Reminds me of a poor man's version of that bulky PF from TN last year that GR3 was tasked to stop.  Will be interesting to see who Beilein asks to defend this type of player.  Maybe Irvin will be forced to do it.
  • Pinkston averages 10.3 ppg with all of it inside the arc, a traditional power forward type. 45% shooter and average 6 rebounds per game (2nd on team) so most likely will have 10ish tonight.  Should be the type to get  lot of second chance points.  Not sure how Chatman will deal with a guy of this size and heft.
  • Ochefu averages 8.5 ppg on 68% shooting and is a guy you dread facing this year.  Not a super scorer but finding anyone on our roster to match up with him is a chore.  Maybe in February/March this is a guy Doyle has success checking but right now Donnal does not seem to be one with the physicality to deal with him so Max's (short) bulk and Doyle's bulk probably are the best options.  He rebounds 9.3 per game so yeah... not going to get a lot of rebounds when he is in the game.  It would behoove Caris Walton and Irvin to drive the lane and try to get him early fouls.

 

Guards

Lots of balance here and a good amount of experience- should be a very good test for our guards/wings.  I want to emphasize again the steal numbers - for comparison Caris steals the ball 1.5x a game.

  • Ennis is the leading scorer at 12.5 ppg but again any one of these guys can go off on a specific night.  Ennis is a 46% shooter and 40% behind the arc - very nice numbers for a guard.  Takes 5 treys a night, and rebounds 5 per game - an excellent board figure for a guard, especially a 6'2 one.
  • Hilliard is struggling with his shot in 2014 at only 34%.  He takes 5 threes a night just like Ennis but only is making 20%.  Don't be fooled though - last year he was a 49% shooter from the field and 41% behind the arc - elite numbers for a guard.  Hopefully he stays in a slump for 1 more game.  Creates 3 assists a game and looks like a defensive presence with 3 steals a game(!!).
  • Arcidiacono is averaging 9.8 as the third starting guard.  He also is in a slump shooting 28% (!) from the field and only 23% behind the arc - but that doesn't stop any of these guys as he also averages 5 three point attempts a game.  He was not a great shooter last year either - his game seems to be assists (5 a game) and defense (2 steals a game)
  • Hart averages 7.0 ppg and "only" takes 2 threes a game.  Still that is 17 three point attempts a night combined from their 4 guard/wings.  Efficient shooter at 58% from the field but only 25% behind the arc.  An excellent rebounder at 4.5 per game in just over 20 minutes a night and yet another guy who steals often at 2.5(!) per game.

 

Should be a fun an interesting game because we have yet to play a team with multiple real big men.  Will give us some insight on how we will have to battle the Wisconsin's and Illinois types. 

They also jack up a ton of 3 pointers (20+ a game) but thus far this year Hilliard and Arcidiacono have been mostly missing them.  Let's hope that continues.  They have 3 guards who are very defensively disruptive so ball handling will be important - Spike probably plays a ton to offset their ability to steal the ball. 

On paper they look pretty darn good but again - they were tied with Bucknell late so on any given night anything can happen.

BlueLikeJazz

November 25th, 2014 at 11:00 AM ^

Also, if Ricky Doyle can channel his inner Bill Walton, and Irvin can shoot a better 3 point % while increasing his drives to the hoop, and if LeVert can start hitting all his 3s, and if Spike can grow 3 inches, we're going to cruise.

 

96-47 good guys.

LSAClassOf2000

November 25th, 2014 at 10:57 AM ^

Here's how TeamRankings pairs them, to add to the discussion a bit. Average of only a few games, sample size qualifier, but interesting all the same:

Offense
Villanova Michigan
Points/Game 76.8   72.7
Avg Score Margin +19.8   +13.3
Assists/Game 15.5   14.3
Total Rebounds/Gm 35.2   34.3
Effective FG % 51.1%   51.9%
Off Rebound % 36.4%   25.6%
FTA/FGA 0.406   0.414
Turnover % 11.6%   11.3%
Defense
Villanova Michigan
Opp Points/Game 57.0   59.3
Opp Effective FG % 48.0%   46.9%
Off Rebounds/Gm 12.0   7.7
Def Rebounds/Gm 20.8   24.0
Blocks/Game 4.0   3.3
Steals/Game 10.5   4.3
Personal Fouls/Gm 16.0   14.0

 

BlueMars24

November 25th, 2014 at 11:00 AM ^

I like that Nova's bench is short. If they only played 7 last night against VCU and we played 11 deep (with Walton being well rested). Hopefully that gives us a big leg up on back-to-back nights. 

WolvinLA2

November 25th, 2014 at 11:53 AM ^

Why do we think Nova's bench is short?  They played a pretty legit 9 man rotation last night, and I disagree that guys 8 and 9 didn't play much.  They played 13 and 9 minutes, respectively and they had 9 points (guy 8) and 4 points, 5 rebouands (guy 9).  So their 8th and 9th guys got Donnel and Chatman level production (who were essentially our 6 and 7 guys last night).  

So no, I don't think Nova's bench is short at all.  

alum96

November 25th, 2014 at 12:37 PM ^

As I wrote in OP I used the box score of the Bucknell game to look at how they play in a close game.  I assume UM will be a close game so its the best mirror for how they'd rotate.

The VCU game was a blowout in the 2nd half when those last 2 guys got more time than in a close game.  Vs Bucknell the 8 and 9 guy got a combined 9 minutes (Booth 5, Reynolds 4).  That doesn't mean they wont play more than 9 minutes tonight but if they are not getting a lot of time vs Bucknell I'd doubt they'd be playing a lot v Michigan.  Those 2 also got a combined 4 minutes in game 1 (all by Booth) vs Lehigh which was Nova's 2nd closest game.

Steve in PA

November 25th, 2014 at 11:04 AM ^

I admit I haven't watched this year except a few plays and a few games last year but Villanova's offense is a 4-out.  That is the explanation why Jenkins shoots a lot of 3's.  What ever player the have low will be who they think is the mismatch.

Of course I haven't done my homework so I could be as accurate as the announcers talking about JB's 1-3-1 defense.

Speaking of defense, I think Michigan will need to run a mix of man and zone vs Nova and tthey will break out some 1-2-1-1.  Should be a fun game to watch if 3's are falling for Michigan.

Blue Since B.C.

November 25th, 2014 at 11:13 AM ^

I like the match-up.  And I love that our fans represent so well at the NYC tourneys.  Barclays was going bonkers during the end of the Oregon game yesterday.

Playing Nova early in the year is preferable to playing VCU, in my opinion.  I think our freshman would be a bit flustered with "havoc" if they had to go up against VCU tonight.  Later in the season though, I would expect a pasting like we witnessed in the tourney 2 years ago.

Let's go get another tourney win boys!!  Nice write-up Alum96.

True Blue Grit

November 25th, 2014 at 11:52 AM ^

than we did against Oregon in the 2nd half.  If we do, we should do OK.  We can't depend on our inside game, that's for sure.  It will be a great experience for the young players though.  For the freshmen it will be their first "big game".