Basketball Recruiting
So I was reading the recruiting roundup over on umhoops (http://www.umhoops.com/2015/01/29/recruiting-roundup-january-29th-2015/) and it really doesn't seem like we are in the leading group of any of our 2016 targets and seem to be going in the wrong direction. Growing up as a Maryland fan I can't get Gary Williams career at Maryland as a comp out of my head and I don't like it.
To give a little background Gary Williams is a HOF coach who took Maryland from a situation where it was still struggling after the sanctions from the Len Bias tragedy and built them back up to the point where they were a top 5 program in college basketball in the late 90's and early 00's including back to back final fours and a national championship with a team comprised mostly of under recruited guys he coached up. However he never capitilized on that success in recruiting and never made it past the sweet sixteen again. Due to the fact that he was a great in game coach his teams still played well, regularly upsetting duke and unc, they won an acc tourney title and regular season acc title in his last 7 years but they were never again among the elite. I'm worried that I see the same thing happening with Beilein where he is such a great coach his teams are always competing but just don't have the talent or the right combination to make that magical run to elite again.
I'm hoping someone here can convince me that I'm misreading the 2016 recruiting situation and we are looking better than I think.
January 29th, 2015 at 3:03 PM ^
...Thornton? I don't understand that, though I'll happily admit that John Beilein's socks know more about basketball than I do.
January 29th, 2015 at 4:14 PM ^
That's my thought.
I have a loose hypothesis formulating that Beilein is electing to step back from recruiting. I don't know why .... ? There have been a few different recruits who are hinting that they don't talk to the head man often enough.
All of our eggs (are almost all of them) are in the '16 basket and it's a little early for guys like Thornton to be fading away IMO.
The other possibility -- they feel better about Winston and want to devote full attention to him. Perhaps he didn't like their flirtations with another PG and so they are backing off. Doubtful, but feasible.
January 29th, 2015 at 4:40 PM ^
As great as the past three years have been, Michigan is still not a blue blood in the way UNC, Duke, Kentucky, etc. are. I hope he's doing everything he needs to do, because (at the risk of stating the obvious) guys aren't going to just show up on Michigan's doorstep. And as you say, the 2016 class is vital if Michigan wants to be more than just respectable.
January 29th, 2015 at 2:59 PM ^
I'm not complaining about what he delivered, they named the court after him for a reason and if Beilein retired tomorrow he has done great things for Michigan. What I'm worried about is that the next 5 years look like the last 5 years of Gary's career, solid teams with sporadic upsets of top teams but never any expectation or belief that they play past the second weekend of the tourney.
January 29th, 2015 at 4:18 PM ^
But Beilein hasn't scaled the same heights just yet.
There has been no expectation or belief that Michigan would be an elite 8 team either...
I guess you are allowed to worry, but to me it's akin to worrying about the few things Harbaugh hasn't demonstrated. The bottomline is that there aren't many (any?) people I'd rather have coaching Michigan.
Recruiting does have to improve a lot. I know people on here want to think that this team only won because of Novak, Burke, and Spike, and that because Nik is a white canadian no one else wanted him, but the reality is that we got to consecutive great 8s because we got NBA caliber talent. The sustainable way to get back is to recruit high 4 and 5 star talent. Beilein knows that and that's what he's trying for.
January 29th, 2015 at 2:57 PM ^
While I don't want to say we should eternally follow the path of blind optimism and trust in Beilein, for the time being he's earned the benefit of the doubt. You know all of this, but consider the following:
-2 Big Ten titles in 3 years, one outright
-National Title appearance, hail mary 3-point shot away from back to back Final Fours
-5 players drafted in 2 years, 4 in the 1st round.
-Unanimous college player of the year in Burke. Two back-to-back conference players of the year. Both of whom were under-recruited and played during a time when the Big Ten was one of the top, if not the top conference in basketball.
-Hell, look at the team right now. They've had every reason to throw in the towel and call it a season, but they keep fighting, and they have a chance to make the tournament.
-With the exception of McGary, and Robinson to some extent, none of these guys were ever heavily recruited by the top schools. And yet Beilein built winning teams with under-recruited guys, some of whom became dominant, that other schools passed over. In my book, Beilein has earned the benefit of the doubt for now.
Also, consider the fact that as good as Beilein is, he will never be able to recruit like Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, UNC, or any of the true blue bloods of basketball. That's not meant to be a knock on him, but that's the way it is. Maybe every now and again he sneaks a top prospect out like he did with McGary, but that's likely the exception, not the rule. Either way, Beilein has proven that he will find great talent where no one else sees it, and he will develop it to its fullest potential. That's what we've got, and its delivered us darn good results over the last three years. I'm fine with where this program is at, as a whole.
January 29th, 2015 at 2:58 PM ^
I probably would have said it a little different, but I generally agree with the message this post is trying to convey. I actually prefer a program that's based on recruiting 3-4 stars and turning them into a great sustained team over the course of their careers (I call this the Wisconsin model). However, I am somewhat disappointed at our recruiting. Look at it this way.
In the last four years we have had an exciting team with the best B10 record of anyone along with cranking out NBA prospects. During that time we have more 2-star recruits than we do 5-star recruits. And even our highest ranked recruits have almost exclusively been guys that moved up the rankings AFTER we recruited them. Only McGary started as a 5-star when we started recruiting him.
I am fine with the concept of building a program full of reliabile 3-4 year players who are moderately ranked with the occassional early-entry departure. Wisconsin and MSU have done very well with this model. But I am very surprised that we haven't been able to attract a single "instant-impact" recruit despite having a large number of players coming through the program in the Beilein era.
January 29th, 2015 at 3:27 PM ^
January 29th, 2015 at 3:30 PM ^
Ran into coach B after the Penn State game in the Delta Sky Club the next morning at DTW. He got back late that night after a road victory and early the next morning he is in the Delta Sky Club waiting to fly out recruiting. Beilein is an awesome coach and very approachable. Complimented him on the PSU win and coach B said every win in the Big 10 this season is an accomplishment. Playfully said this is his 3rd rebuild at Michigan since he has been here, and that this rebuild was somewhat unexpected. You could tell how proud he is about his guys going Pro, just adds more work to his plate...hence the recruiting trip less than 8 hours after getting back from a B1G road game (his normal off day). Great guy and proud to have him coach Michigan!
January 29th, 2015 at 3:37 PM ^
That these recruiting cycles have been disappointing. There is no reason we shouldn't have capitalized on the recent success. I think one thing to keep in mind is that given all the basketball shenanigans that happened over the past twenty years with the Fab Five, etc., that I would assume that during recruiting that if there's even a whiff of shadiness that UM just walks away from a prospect.
January 29th, 2015 at 3:47 PM ^
Trust Coach B
January 29th, 2015 at 4:26 PM ^
I do trust coach B. The only issue is that he also wanted ja'sean tate and keita bates-diop and devin booker and james blackmon more. Beilein thought all of those players were better than duncan robinson, MAAR and Dawkins. That isn't too say he won't be able to succeed with them but this isn't about trusting Beilein because he is passing over a higher rated recruit for a lower rated one it is being worried that he keeps having to go back to his second and third choices because he can't get the guys he really wants.
January 29th, 2015 at 4:52 PM ^
I think the 2016 class will be Beilein's best class since 2012...we'll have a 5 star recruit like Tyus Battle or Josh Langford, a couple 4 star recruits along with Teske. That year we will have some seasoned upercassmen that know the system along with stud freshmen. Next season we build off the positives from this year (Sweet 16 type team), the following year we are a top 5-10 squad with potential to beat anybody IMHO.
January 29th, 2015 at 4:20 PM ^
let's just see what beilein can do when he's got a full lineup of guys with 2+ years of time in the program who are the most talented he's ever had with that kind of experience. I think we're looking at a polished, suffocating zone defense and a HIGHLY nuanced offense. I know it's fun to win but I would rather watch a squad like the one i just mentioned than a team that wins night in night out bc they're bigger, stronger, and faster than the opponent--i still think we'll win a whole heck of a lot of games....
in short, i am more a fan of wisconsin model than blue chip model. and the only caveat is beilein's brand of ball is wayyyy more fun than the space bug's.
January 29th, 2015 at 4:46 PM ^
Tony Bennett is doing the same thing at UVA. His starting lineup of mostly juniors is 19-0 and it's likely all of them return. They are loaded with depth The freshman who get regular minutes are very talented and confident, fit the system well and plug into the lineup seamlessly at each position. I don't think a single player on the team was a 4 star recruit. Just smart, dedicated players who buy into the team system, want to win and want a UVA degree. Really well run and well coached program. My hope was for Michigan to be the offense-focused version of UVA, but our first "money" recruiting class reached their NBA potential too soon. By contrast Bennett's first "money" recruiting class graduated its two remaining seniors (there were some transfers) last year in Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell both all ACC in their junior and senior year.
January 29th, 2015 at 4:54 PM ^
January 29th, 2015 at 4:55 PM ^
Justin Anderson was ranked 49th in the country. That recruting class which is now juniors had 3 top 100 4 star players. The year before that, which are the current seniors had a 3 man class with two top 100 players. Don't let their slow boring ass style fool you, Virginia is loaded with top 100 talent upperclassmen. It is actually the last few recruiting classes that have not been loaded and it will be interesting to see what happens when the current juniors rotate out.
January 29th, 2015 at 4:48 PM ^
was bigger, stronger and faster than everybody....I enjoyed that. A lot.
The Fab 5 was pretty fab as well.
January 29th, 2015 at 4:27 PM ^
You'd think that the NBA exodus off the roster would make Michigan more appealing to the 2016 guys. There is greater potential for early playing time. Nik, McGary and GRIII should pointed to as models for what high potential recruits can do in their freshman and sophmore years under Beilein at Michigan.
January 29th, 2015 at 4:44 PM ^
January 29th, 2015 at 4:52 PM ^
Did we read different articles? The only person that it mentions as not being very high on Michigan anymore is Thorton. From the article it sounds like Michigan has actually cooled on their efforts. Maybe because they want to put more effort in Winston?? But I am not sure you actually read the article, because it sounds to me like a lot of guys have Michigan in their favorite group. Cassius Winston sounds like it is a battle between us and State (Top 2 sounds like his top group to me). Seth towns it says “Michigan continues to be near the top of the list”. Jaylon Brown plans on using one of his official visits on us (he only get’s 5, so that means we are in his top 5). Not sure how you can think we aren’t in anyone’s top group from that information.
And I think it is funny how you are such a negative nancy. We just went to the Finals and Elite Eight in back to back years. We’ve lost 5 guys to early entry in the last 3 years and have our worst injury situation since Beilien has been here. Yet we are still a team on the bubble. Most teams (other than Kentucky) would crumble if that happened to their team. Calm down dude.
January 29th, 2015 at 5:00 PM ^
We've had 2 really great years but are now looking at 3 straight years of mediocre recruiting. Winston is no lock. We are actually in Brown's top 7 since he can visit the Georgia schools without officials. Most people think Towns is ticketed for OSU eventually. My pessimism comes from the fact that going into the year we seemed to be the favorites for a bunch of these guys and now are just in the top groups since the Kentucky's and Dukes of the world have joined in which like what happened with Booker generally means we don't get them.
January 29th, 2015 at 9:57 PM ^
January 29th, 2015 at 5:31 PM ^
January 29th, 2015 at 5:34 PM ^
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January 29th, 2015 at 10:01 PM ^
Meh, Michigan was never going to be an elite recruiting school with Beilein at the top, but they can be incredibly successful grabbing the random top-50 kid and then pulling in solid 3/4* recruits who fit the system. Yes, Kentucky, Duke, Kansas, etc. always tend to recruit well, but they have different needs and different team composition than UM. This is the variance with a Beilein team, and yet the fact this team is 6-3 in a decent conference with all the defections and injuries speaks immensely for how this team will continue to compete year-in/year-out.
January 30th, 2015 at 8:27 AM ^
send their sons to a *master technician* of TEACHING the fundmentals of the game...GTFOH with that.
Being top ten in your profession sure doesn't go far these days...