Basketball: Rankings compilation and look at future schedules

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January 29th, 2013 at 3:19 PM
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Indonacious
Joined: 01/03/2012
MGoPoints: 514
Basketball: Rankings compilation and look at future schedules

 

Team kenpom sagarin massey lrmc Average Single Plays Record Remaining Schedule
                 
michigan 2 2 1 3 2.00 205.75 6 – 1 60.02
indiana 3 5 7 2 4.25 269.00 6 – 1 37.73
minnesota 9 11 17 11 12.00 289.00 3 – 4 53.25
osu 10 8 14 13 11.25 259.00 5 – 2 38.36
msu 16 14 12 19 15.25 353.50 6 – 2 38.30
wisconsin 15 17 29 16 19.25 165.50 5 – 2 60.84
iowa 34 39 57 40 42.50   2 – 5  
illinois 56 51 39 49 48.75   2 – 5  
purdue 63 55 80 78 69.00   4 – 3  
nw 88 75 70 97 82.50   3 – 5  
nebraska 154 124 108 142 132.00   2 – 6  
psu 201 170 190 212 193.25   0 – 8  

- I decided to compile some of the computer rankings that are regarded highly and then average them out. 
- Then, I went through and summed up all of the single plays that each of the upper tier teams has (lower number indicates an easier set of single plays).
- Lastly, I decided to show the current conference record and then an average ranking of the upcoming schdule (lower number suggesting harder difficulty, on average).

The one thing I didn't account for in the single plays or in the remaining schedule was any impact road/home games would have...mostly because I wasn't sure how to fairly do that. Still, I think it gives you a pretty good idea without any adjustments of how teams stand.

Hope the formatting works out properly for the chart...

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January 29th, 2013 at 3:29 PM | *scratches head* (Score:2)
superstringer
superstringer's picture
Joined: 02/04/2009
MGoPoints: 974

So what you're saying is...

Laquon is going to Ol' Miss cuz he got payd?

Oops, sorry, wrong thread...

What you're saying is, we've had just about the hardest schedule to date, and one of the easiest remaining?  But that's because we aren't on our own schedule, but we are on all of their schedules.

It does confirm what I noticed last week -- MSU's early B1G schedule was a joke easy.  No wonder they were 5-1, they lost their only tough road game (Minnie) (this was prior to going to Bloomington).  The only tough game was home against OSU, and they squeaked that out.

January 29th, 2013 at 3:40 PM | Sparty also won at Wisconsin. (Score:2 Normal)
707oxford
707oxford's picture
Joined: 02/13/2012
MGoPoints: 692

Sparty also won at Wisconsin. I wouldn't call that joke easy.

January 29th, 2013 at 4:17 PM | So is the "Remaining (Score:2)
EZ Bud
Joined: 01/04/2011
MGoPoints: 476

So is the "Remaining Schedule" column essentially the average rank of our remaining opponents?

This is MICHIGAN

January 29th, 2013 at 4:26 PM | ya, that's what it should (Score:2)
Indonacious
Joined: 01/03/2012
MGoPoints: 514

ya, that's what it should reflect.

January 29th, 2013 at 4:35 PM | Capturing Future SOS (Score:2)
LSAClassOf2000
LSAClassOf2000's picture
Joined: 01/07/2011
MGoPoints: 8743

To supplement this a little bit, TeamRankings started doing Future Strength Of Schedule rankings for Division I - the latest projeciton is here. According to them, the top three, in order, would be Indiana, Ohio State and then Michigan, but what is even more interesting about their projection is that you have to get to #9 before you find a team that is NOT in the Big Ten. The algorithm is a work in progress, but the results are intriguing thus far.

One thing that is interesting looking at the ratings as they are presented here is the increasing variation between them as you move towards the bottom of the Big Ten. I would also call the single plays on the remaining schedule reasonably tight when you consider that all of these teams, by most current projections, are estimated to lose between 2-4 more games each.

Thanks for sharing this data though - it does make it intriguing to think about what could go on between the top six on the list.

 

"Funny isn't it, how naughty dentists always make that one fatal mistake."

Follow the random tweets of a Michigan alum - http://twitter.com/#!/LorneEC3

January 29th, 2013 at 4:50 PM | ND was 7 (Score:2)
Scout96
Joined: 12/02/2012
MGoPoints: 20

On that link Notre Dame was 7th toughest , Syracuse was ninth. There projected standings page is interesting to view, www.teamrankings.com/ncb/projections/standings/.
They project Indiana to win the conference and tourney.

Jim

January 29th, 2013 at 4:57 PM | Thanks For The Correction... (Score:2)
LSAClassOf2000
LSAClassOf2000's picture
Joined: 01/07/2011
MGoPoints: 8743

Thanks for the correction - definite fail/misread on my part there.

Yes, the projected overall wins on their site seem fairly realistic at this point. I believe it had been discussed several weeks ago in a similar thread that the common belief here was that the conference champion would likely be a 4-5 loss team. Numbers are starting to align to this possibility, it seems.



Team Overall Wins Overall Losses
Michigan 26.6 4.4
Indiana 26.4 4.6
Michigan St 22.7 8.3
Ohio State 21.9 8.1
Illinois 19.6 12.4
Minnesota 22.7 8.3
Wisconsin 21.1 9.9
Iowa 19 12
Northwestern 15.3 15.7
Nebraska 12.8 18.2
Purdue 14.4 16.6
Penn State 9.6 20.4

 

"Funny isn't it, how naughty dentists always make that one fatal mistake."

Follow the random tweets of a Michigan alum - http://twitter.com/#!/LorneEC3

January 29th, 2013 at 4:42 PM | Tournament odds (Score:2 Normal)
dmonet
Joined: 09/17/2010
MGoPoints: 111

I can't create a thread, so I figured I'd toss this in here

 

With all the talk about seedings and potential national championship runs, I've been curious about what the odds look like for Michigan getting to the Final Four / Championship Game / Winning it all.

I decided to take ESPN's bracket and calculate the odds using KenPom's Pyth score to simulate the bracket.  The percentage in each column reflects the odds of the team reaching that round given the opponents they are likely to face along the way.

The percentages are calculated using a composite of a team's odds of winning against all possible opponents they might face in a given round rather than just against the team they are most likely to see.  I think this gives a better overall picture.

Here's what I have:

    Odds of making it to Round #:          
    Round of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champion
  SOUTH (North Texas)            
1 Kansas 94.2% 49.6% 39.7% 23.8% 8.1% 3.9%
16 Southern 5.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Wisconsin 38.3% 16.5% 12.1% 6.1% 1.6% 0.6%
9 Pittsburgh 61.7% 33.5% 27.3% 16.8% 6.0% 3.0%
               
5 North Carolina St. 56.8% 32.7% 7.8% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1%
12 La Salle 43.2% 22.1% 4.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0%
4 New Mexico 65.4% 33.1% 7.3% 2.2% 0.3% 0.1%
13 Louisiana Tech 34.6% 12.1% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
               
6 Ucla 51.1% 20.3% 5.9% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1%
11 Iowa St. 48.9% 18.9% 5.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0%
3 Michigan St. 83.3% 56.0% 24.5% 10.7% 2.6% 0.9%
14 Harvard 16.7% 4.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
               
7 Mississippi 65.1% 20.3% 10.1% 3.6% 0.7% 0.2%
10 Memphis 34.9% 7.2% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
2 Syracuse 93.9% 71.4% 50.8% 29.1% 10.0% 4.8%
15 Northeastern 6.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
               
  WEST (Los Angeles)            
1 Florida 98.7% 91.2% 78.5% 67.0% 54.6% 41.7%
16 Montana 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Georgetown 48.9% 4.1% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
9 Colorado 51.1% 4.4% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
               
5 Wichita St. 70.1% 29.4% 4.5% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2%
12 Maryland 29.9% 7.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Ohio St. 76.7% 53.5% 12.4% 7.1% 3.6% 1.6%
13 Akron 23.3% 9.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
               
6 Nevada Las Vegas 64.1% 25.9% 10.4% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%
11 Illinois 35.9% 10.3% 2.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
3 Miami Fl 87.6% 60.7% 33.4% 8.3% 4.0% 1.6%
14 Davidson 12.4% 3.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
               
7 Kansas St. 37.9% 11.3% 3.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
10 Kentucky 62.1% 24.8% 11.4% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%
2 Arizona 91.6% 62.5% 37.3% 9.7% 4.8% 2.0%
15 Niagara 8.4% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
               
  MIDWEST (Indianapolis)            
1 Michigan 97.0% 82.3% 61.1% 38.1% 22.3% 9.8%
16 Charleston Southern 3.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Notre Dame 49.5% 8.5% 3.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
9 North Carolina 50.5% 8.8% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
               
5 Creighton 68.3% 47.4% 19.2% 8.8% 3.7% 1.1%
12 Southern Mississippi 31.7% 16.3% 4.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
4 Oregon 66.1% 27.2% 7.7% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1%
13 Stephen F. Austin 33.9% 9.1% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
               
6 San Diego St. 56.3% 17.1% 7.2% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2%
11 Belmont 43.7% 11.2% 4.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
3 Louisville 89.9% 68.9% 46.4% 26.5% 14.8% 6.2%
14 Stony Brook 10.1% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
               
7 Virginia Commonwealth 67.8% 28.6% 10.6% 3.7% 1.3% 0.3%
10 Oklahoma 32.2% 8.7% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
2 Gonzaga 92.4% 61.5% 29.1% 13.3% 5.9% 1.9%
15 Long Beach St. 7.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
               
  EAST (Washington, D.C.)            
1 Duke 94.9% 70.7% 46.0% 26.9% 14.7% 6.0%
16 Western Illinois 5.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Baylor 44.5% 11.7% 4.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
9 Colorado St. 55.5% 16.9% 7.1% 2.7% 0.9% 0.2%
               
5 Minnesota 85.4% 58.9% 29.2% 15.0% 7.0% 2.4%
12 Temple 14.6% 4.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Cincinnati 78.0% 32.6% 11.9% 4.6% 1.5% 0.4%
13 Lehigh 22.0% 4.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
               
6 Marquette 55.9% 31.3% 8.2% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1%
11 Middle Tennessee 44.1% 22.2% 4.9% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0%
3 Butler 70.5% 37.1% 9.7% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1%
14 Valparaiso 29.5% 9.4% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
               
7 Missouri 39.5% 7.9% 4.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0%
10 Oklahoma St. 60.5% 16.3% 9.9% 3.5% 1.1% 0.2%
2 Indiana 96.1% 75.2% 62.0% 38.1% 22.0% 9.6%
15 Florida Gulf Coast 3.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Let me know what you think

January 29th, 2013 at 4:55 PM | I'm getting this put up into a thread for you... (Score:1)
justingoblue
justingoblue's picture
Joined: 11/16/2010
MGoPoints: 10871

right now. You should be able to edit it when I do, although I've never tried that for a poster with <100 points, so maybe the walls will just crumble. I don't know, we'll have to see.

Go Blue!

January 29th, 2013 at 4:59 PM | Thanks (Score:2 Normal)
dmonet
Joined: 09/17/2010
MGoPoints: 111

*

January 29th, 2013 at 5:03 PM | There should be an "edit" tab... (Score:1)
justingoblue
justingoblue's picture
Joined: 11/16/2010
MGoPoints: 10871

right on top of the thread. You can change anything in the thread, from the title on down. Also, I definitely won't feel bad if you change my title; just try to keep it descriptive.

Go Blue!

January 29th, 2013 at 7:44 PM | yikes (Score:1)
superstringer
superstringer's picture
Joined: 02/04/2009
MGoPoints: 974

That makes no sense.  Florida has a 41% chance of winning the tournament?  And the next most likely are UM and IU, at 9.8% and 9.6% respectively?

Gentlemen, place your bets, place your bets...

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