Basketball - Hear Me Out

Submitted by UM Indy on
I'm probably crazy for even contemplating this scenario, but, after escaping Iowa City with an OT win, I guess I'll step out on a limb and say that the NCAA tourney is not completely out of the realm of possibility. We're 13-12. We have 5 games left. We need to win all 5. Maybe I should stop right there . . . BUT if we finish 18-12, with wins AT Ohio State and Michigan State and a home win against Illinois (plus the home wins we HAVE to have against Penn State and Minnesota), there's a chance. A win or two at the BTT would certainly help and may even be necessary. But a regular season finish of 18-12, with wins over UConn, Ohio State, Michigan State and Illinois would be something the committee would have to think about long and hard. I don't see this team being capable of putting together that kind of winning streak. The games at Ohio State and Michigan State will be extremely difficult and we're certainly capable of laying eggs at home when the focus wanes. Anyway, a ray of hope still shines . . . and that's about the best we can do in the world of Michigan athletics right now.
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A2MIKE

February 17th, 2010 at 7:42 PM ^

in that scenario we would be 21-13 and probably one of the hottest teams in the country. Not only would we be in the tournament but we would probably be a higher seed than last year. Going 10-1 down the stretch, which is what you are proposing would make Michigan a lock. If they finish 17-13 they would probably need to make the finals of the BTT to make the tournament.

Joined: 10/10/2009

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Kilgore Trout

February 17th, 2010 at 11:45 AM ^

I have thought that 11-7 in the conference gets us in. A few weeks ago, that seemed possible. The losses to Wisconsin at home and at Northwestern basically ended it for all reasonable purposes. BUT, if they do manage to win out, I think they have a strong case. That's essentially the same record as last year and the two wins over OSU (one on the road) and a road win at MSU would be equal to the Duke and UCLA wins of last year in my mind. I think there's literally almost no chance that happens. @OSU and @MSU are two of the three toughest games they play this year (@Kansas being the other) and nothing I've seen in following this team closely gives me any hope they can win those games, but I guess you never know.

Joined: 02/20/2009

MGoPoints: 13155

Carcajous

February 17th, 2010 at 11:46 AM ^

Yeah... strictly speaking, if we win out and win a couple of games in the Big Ten tournament we could get to there. I can't see it happening, but you are correct.

Joined: 07/05/2009

MGoPoints: 2275

Beavis

February 17th, 2010 at 11:48 AM ^

ESPN had a thing on bubble teams about a week or two back. Of course, one of them was UConn. When I saw the "bad losses" category and Michigan was the only team there.... I knew our goose was cooked. Even if we go 18-12, we're at best a bubble team... even if we reach the B10 tourney final. And we're not going to be 18-12....

Joined: 07/28/2009

MGoPoints: 5993

jtmc33

February 17th, 2010 at 12:22 PM ^

If we go 18-12 with an 11-7 conference record... we are in. Assuming that is #6 in the conference standings, going 2-1 in the BTT would make them 20-13 Any 20-13 team from a major conference with an 11-7 conference record is in Unless Tractor Traylor is on your team. And Hughes.

Joined: 04/15/2009

MGoPoints: 10052

jmblue

February 17th, 2010 at 12:08 PM ^

Sadly, winning out in the regular season may be the more likely of the two. (By "more likely," I mean like a 1% chance vs. a .0.5% chance.) Unless we get a top-five seed, which is doubtful, we'd be looking at having to win four games in four days, against the cream of the conference, with a very thin lineup.

Joined: 11/07/2008

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PeterKlima

February 17th, 2010 at 12:08 PM ^

UM Indy: What do you think the chances are of a [tourney like you] and a [team like Michigan]... ending up together? Reality: Well, that's difficult to say. I mean, we don't really... UM Indy: Hit me with it! Just give it to me straight! I came a long way just to see you. The least you can do is level with me. What are my chances? Reality: Not good. UM Indy: You mean, not good like one out of a hundred? Reality: I'd say more like one out of a million. [pause] UM Indy: So you're telling me there's a chance... *YEAH!*

Joined: 08/24/2008

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gpsimms not to…

February 17th, 2010 at 12:27 PM ^

gives us a.4211% chance of winning out. Let's say that making the finals in the BTT is enough. that means we beat one lower tier team and 2 top tier teams (on neutral court). I think that'd probably be like 70%*40%*30% or so. of course, times .4211% so like, .03537% which, come on klima, is waaaay more than one in a million.

Joined: 09/04/2008

MGoPoints: 2080

jtmc33

February 17th, 2010 at 12:17 PM ^

Finish 5-0 (not going to happen), 18-12 (11-7): In no matter what happens in BTT Finsih 4-1, (slightly possible scenario) 17-13 (10-8): In if they go 2-1 in BTT; Bubble (but in) if they go 1-1 Finish 3-2 (most likely scenario), 16-14 (9-9): Must win BTT Finish 2-3 (very possible scenario)15-15 (8-10): Must go 1-1 in BTT to make NIT Finsih 1-4 (Minnesota at home is no gimme) 14-16 (7-11): Must go 2-1 in BTT to make NIT

Joined: 04/15/2009

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gpsimms not to…

February 17th, 2010 at 12:32 PM ^

but this seems like a pretty rosy outlook to me? any reason you think this is enough? the RPI hates us way more than kenpom and unfortunately the committee does not look at kenpom's numbers. i don't think your 5-0/4-1 scenarious would raise our rpi enough... again, haven't done any research, but my "feeling" would be: 5-0 +finals is square on the bubble 4-1 +finals is very likely not in anything less is absolutely not in

Joined: 09/04/2008

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spam and beans

February 17th, 2010 at 12:23 PM ^

I was going to write about the ridiculousness of Michigan winning out and making the Tourney. But I reread the last part of the post “Anyway, a ray of hope still shines . . . and that's about the best we can do in the world of Michigan athletics right now.” So I am taking a softer approach. You are not crazy, or insanely optimistic. You are just a true blue Michigan fan. After a bad football season we all thought we could distract ourselves with a good basketball and hockey season. “Sigh” It didn't happen. Even the Red Wings have been tough to watch. So your idea of Michigan possibly making it to the NCAA tournament is not about logic, but an attempt to fight off depression. So everybody be nice. What we need is love. The OP is a true Michigan Fan needing encouragement. It really will get better.

Joined: 09/30/2009

MGoPoints: 12

arfabe

February 17th, 2010 at 12:32 PM ^

You're kidding, right? Do you realize how truly AWFUL of a basketball team Iowa is? And, if Lickliter had any clue how to coach, he would've told his team to foul before UM even had a chance to shoot a 3 and Iowa would've won the game. Winning at OSU is inconceivable, and winning at MSU on Morgan's and possibly Lucas's last home game is pretty much impossible. ONLY shot UM has at making the tourney is winning the BTT, and that's not happening either. Even the NIT is in jeopardy right now... UM is NOT 13-12 for postseason purposes, because the win against Div. 2 NMI doesn't count. UM is actually 12-12, with 2 sure losses (OSU, MSU), 1 sure win (PSU), 1 probable loss (Illinois), and 1 toss-up (Minn) remaining. UM has to be almost perfect to even make the NIT.

Joined: 02/03/2010

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Jay-Z

February 17th, 2010 at 12:37 PM ^

I was thinkin the same thing after last nites game. It is really depressing when you look back at our past games. The losses to Bc,bama, nw twice and msu. If we win those games we are in the tourny for sure.

Joined: 06/03/2009

MGoPoints: 3810

jamiemac

February 17th, 2010 at 1:08 PM ^

I agree with the OP. If we win out the regular season, we'd need two BTT wins. ONe would be the 6 vs 11 game and then the #3 seed in the Q's I think we could get in under that scenario. We might need another bubble team or two to fall on their sword as well. But, yeah, its a very small sliver of hope. Frankly, I will be impressed if the club wins its home games and covers the spread at OSU and at MSU, let alone winning all five. So, it's still a pipe dream and an ardous road map at best.

Joined: 06/30/2008

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Tacopants

February 17th, 2010 at 1:11 PM ^

Don't you think that winning the last 5 games (esp @OSU @MSU) would be harder than winning 4 games in the BTT at a mostly neutral site? I mean, you're going to face 2 middling teams like us, then 2 good teams like MSU and OSU. I think its also easier to carry over the momentum to make a BTT tourney run much like Syracuse in the Big East a couple of years ago, or Beilein's WVU team in 05.

Joined: 07/06/2008

MGoPoints: 3579

UNCWolverine

February 17th, 2010 at 1:36 PM ^

Sure, I'll take a hit of what you are smoking. There is a shot in hell that this team catches fire from 3-point land and starts mowing teams down. I give that a 1% chance though. "More like one in a million". "So you're saying there's a chance........"

Joined: 10/06/2008

MGoPoints: 23127