Based on the Michigan State-Oregon game, how well do you think Michigan matches up?

Submitted by Caesar on

The rest of the teams on State's schedule aren't ranked (and probably won't be). That's why I'm asking for your thoughts after this game in particular. 

Not Good for Michigan

  • State's DL is, lordy, as advertised. Oregon's OL started one senior and a bunch of sophomores, so maybe some wiggle room in there. In general, however, scary stuff. Unless Michigan's OL can improve enough to look solid against BYU, my guess is that Michigan's running game is going to be a ton of passes.
  • From what Brian said, the Michigan DL might not match up well against their guys, especially with Mone out. Note that Oregon started a bunch of seniors on their line.
  • Kings, State's slot guy, was really effective. I hope Peppers and others can rapidly improve enough to blanket him and other slotty dudes.
  • I'm not sure Michigan can improve their special teams enough get the boost that Oregon got in their game. 

Not too Bad for Michigan

  • Rudock does better under duress than Adams; he gets positive/no yards where Adams lost yards in some cases. Relatedly, overall, I think Rudock makes better decisions, and he's already showing improvement.
  • Michigan's corners, especially if Lewis is back, match up well with Burbridge
  • So far, the Michigan OL has been better about QB protection. Brian's UFR shows it's not that awesome, but it feels better than last year, at least. 

What do you folks think? 

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Arinix

September 13th, 2015 at 12:40 AM ^

Don't know if this is heresy to say, but MSU will beat Michigan handily. Even with Harbaugh, the Wolverines need a couple of seasons to catch up.

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HenneGivenSunday

September 13th, 2015 at 12:42 AM ^

I respectfully disagree. This Michigan team seems tougher to me. That's where it starts. Mentally, not physically. Too many times over the last several years it looked like we were too timid. I don't expect that to be the case anymore. I hope I am right. Please let me be right. Ok, I'll quit drinking and go to bed.



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HenneGivenSunday

September 13th, 2015 at 12:57 AM ^

That is exactly what I was comparing. We are talking about the mentality of 18-23 year olds. Confidence counts. Plus, it is easy to forget that they haven't played in AA in awhile. Are they currently better? Absolutely. That doesn't mean they should just forfeit the game. I feel like you are reaching for negatives, but whatever helps you lack any hope at all.



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late night BTB

September 13th, 2015 at 1:05 AM ^

Im comparing this years michigan and msu teams. Michigan has improved from last year, but it was jv high school last year. This year, we arent in the same neighborhood as msu or osu. Oregon st is bad and will finish at the bottom of the pac12, utah is a fringe top 25 team.
Doesnt matter how much you improve year to year, you must beat teams. We arent beating osu or msu this year or any top 25 team. We arent that good. Luckily our schedule is cake and we'll finish 8-4 and pretend that means we are good.



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Jimmyisgod

September 13th, 2015 at 12:45 AM ^

I loved what I saw from us today, but Oregon State is absolutely horrid.  Oregon and MSU have a ton of top shelf talent.  It;s a tough matchup for us.

That being said, the way we can move the ball on MSU is to use our TEs and Fbs in the passing game.  And I think wecan contain their offense.  It;s going to be a low scoring game, maybe 20-14 or something.

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Franz Schubert

September 13th, 2015 at 2:17 AM ^

Oregon is vastly overrated giving up 42 points to Eastern Washington. Oregon has no defense at all. MSU has issues in the secondary, you have to throw the ball against them. WMU lit them up, and many on this board were claiming WMU was just that good but they were blown out 47-17 by Georgia Southern and the passing game that torched MSU for over 350 yards was held to around 227. The game tonight was between two top 25 teams not top 10 as they are both overrated. If Michigan continues to improve and get Drake Johnson up to speed that MSU game is very winnable.

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bronxblue

September 13th, 2015 at 9:15 AM ^

Why the heck not?  Adams has looked like a mess and had an injured index finger, WMU's Terrell doesn't strike me as any better a QB than you've come to expect from a middling MAC team, and Rudock threw the ball decently against MSU the one time he played them years ago when they were significantly better in the secondary.

I am not saying Rudock is going to be a Heisman trophy winner against them, but we have had some evidence these past couple of games (and really even last year) that if you can protect your QB you can do so against the MSU secondary.  UM's pass protection is suspect, but last year MSU's defense took a small step back, and right now it looks like it has taken another, slightly more substantial one back as well.

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Muttley

September 13th, 2015 at 11:30 AM ^

He simply noted what Oregon & MSU did against their opponents in week 1, and it wasn't that impressive.  

I think this is a below-par Oregon team by their standards.  The dropoff might not be clearly exposed, however, due to a favorable schedule.  The North is weak without any other ranked teams.  The two South teams Oregon misses in cross-over games are presently ranked UCLA & Arizona.  Further, Oregon gets both ranked South teams on its schedule at home (USC & Utah).

Still, keep in mind those 42 points the Ducks surrendered to Eastern Washington.

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HAIL-YEA

September 13th, 2015 at 9:32 AM ^

a normal Oregon team. Their defense is terrible, their qb is new, an average runner and below average passer. Most importantly he is so new they couldn't run tempo at all. At no point in the game were they going normal Oregon speed. I think they ran 25 less plays on offense then they averaged the last few years/

Our defense is better than MSU's, I know that hurts lot of people on this board. If our Oline keeps improving and Rudddock can stop turning it over than we will win that game. 

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Heteroskedastic

September 13th, 2015 at 6:25 AM ^

I couldn't help but think the same thing about these teams being overrated. MSU's running game looked great, all three running backs were running through huge holes most of the night. This scares me.  Their front seven held Oregon to 123 yards on 40+ carries. This scares me too. However, they gave up 7.9 (7.5 sack adj) YPA to a FCS quarterback who never seems to plant his foot and 7.3 YPA (6.5 sack adj) to Western. I think this is a vulnerability that can be exploited. Cook, on the other hand, manages 6 YPA against Oregon who allowed Eastern Washington 8 YPA. It still seems early, but Cook does not scare as much as the hype train dictates I should be scared. I still believe MSU is better than UM, but I think it is far to early to write off UM.

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wolverine1987

September 13th, 2015 at 9:49 AM ^

I agree with your post BTW, but I want to address one element--State is better than us, period. It's not hype, it's not being too negative, it's objectively true--they are a better team and program than we are--right now. Therefore they will be favored and should be favored over us. We can win, don't get me wrong, but if anyone thinks that last night was a mirage, they are kidding themselves. You are right, we cannot be written off, and we will improve every week. But State is for real, as are Oregon's limitations this year, and as are our very early progress toward being the team we should be. 

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evenyoubrutus

September 13th, 2015 at 7:42 AM ^

Also I was not impressed at all with Oregon's offense. They do not have the play makers they have had in the past, especially their QB. That made it very easy for MSU to shut them down because once they dominated on the line, there was nothing for Oregon fall back on.

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MI Expat NY

September 13th, 2015 at 8:56 AM ^

I agree. I thought both teams took clear steps back from last year. For Oregon, Adams plays like the nice fcs QB he is. Couldn't take advantage of the opportunities MSU's secondary presented all night, nor was he decisive enough to do anything with his feet.

That being said, Oregon was able to methodically move the ball all night, which isn't a strength. Tells me MSU's front 7 isn't the killers they normally are. On the other side of the ball, the MSU line did create a couple big holes, but half of their 200 yards came on two plays. Cook and co were just meh through the air, and I doubt Oregon possess much better than a top half defense.

Edit: tried to edit on my phone... did not work so well.

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LV Sports Bettor

September 13th, 2015 at 10:21 AM ^

Nearly half of the yardage he threw for in that game came AFTER the score was 34-10. You can't place much stock into that as defenses are going to go into coverage up 24 points in the 2nd half.

As for the Georgia Southern game, GSU is every bit as good as good as WMU as they were 8-0 in the Sun Belt last year. They were off a tremendous embarrassment last week at WVU losing 44-0 while WMU was off their biggest hyped game maybe ever. Was a perfect set-up for GSU yesterday.

All these things have to be taken into consideration as well. You can go all day long playing the "they beat them and they beat them" game.

All I can say is good luck naming 15 teams or so who'd be clearly favored over Michigan St (and Oregon also) on a neutral field. I can PROMISE you there's not 10 teams who would be right now and that's the best indicator of where they are overall right now. Why is it so hard for people to be objective when it comes to another team, too funny.

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Franz Schubert

September 13th, 2015 at 1:08 PM ^

Excuses and rationalizations. The WMU QB had open receivers the whole game, in fact he had consecutive long TD passes dropped early in the game.

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SalvatoreQuattro

September 13th, 2015 at 12:48 AM ^

MSU loses a lot. Cook, most of their receiver, two of their OL, and several starters on defense. UM will return most of it's starters save Rudock. But O'Korn actually has starting experience unlike what MSU has returning.

I do agree that MSU is the better team this year. No doubt about that. However, UM will not be bullied. Physicality won't be an issue I think.

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JonnyHintz

September 13th, 2015 at 8:23 AM ^

You MAY want to reevaluate that comment after looking at the roster. We actually lose A LOT of players from this year's team that are major contributors. We lose Rudock at QB. Chesson and Darboh at Receiver. Our entire starting OL except Mason Cole, Bars is also gone from the two deep. Kerridge is gone at FB. AJ Williams is gone at TE and realistically we could lose Jake Butt as well. So on offense, we are looking at returning one OL and a RB as starters, and hopefully Jake Butt. Grant Perry at slot if you want to count him as a starter. On defense we lose Henry, Glasgow, Wormley, Ojemudia, Jenkins-Stone, and Godin from our DL. Only Charlton and Hurst return from the DL rotation. At LB we lose Ross III, Bolden, and Morgan, (all our starters) and Gant. Gedeon and McCray are the returning players that have a shot at any PT this season. In the secondary, Jarrod Wilson and Jeremy Clark graduate. Clark isn't a starter, but he is a major contributor. So just based on Graduation, we return 3 starters on offense (4 if you count slot as a starting position). And 3 on defense (all in the secondary). Not to mention we graduate our K, P, and KOS. So we return a whopping 6 (or 7) starters next season. I'm very curious how you think we "return most of our starters," or how State loses more than we do. It's not hard as a fan to look at our depth chart and see that we are losing A LOT of starters after this season, and there isn't much behind them at this point.

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ghost

September 13th, 2015 at 8:31 AM ^

The OL and DL losses were hurt, but do you really think O'Korn is a downgrade from Rudock?  The downgrade from Cooke to whoever will be their starter will be massive.

MSU will also bring back only to OL (Conklin is a projected 1st round pick so he is gone).  MSU looks to be returing about 10 starters.  And their strength, the DL, will lose 3 starters and most of the backups are freshment.  That will hurt them alot.

Michigan returns likely about 8. 

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teldar

September 13th, 2015 at 8:48 AM ^

Take another look before you berate the guy.the entire ol are juniors except glasgow. Both Chesson and Darboh are juniors according to depth chart by class. We don't lose a single dl Except Ojemudia. We do lose every productive lb, however, except Gedeon. I'm not sure what you were looking at.

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Muttley

September 13th, 2015 at 11:50 AM ^

without regard to redshirt eligibility.  (He's not under obligation to offer the fifth year.)

But those in the know would immediately recognize that "seniors" Darbaugh and Chesson will have used up only three years of eligibility after this year.

Edit: (Meant to reply to JonnyHintz)

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chatster

September 13th, 2015 at 8:57 AM ^

You might want to re-consider Michigan’s projected “losses” from the 2015 team. Several fourth-year players were red-shirted, so they would have another year of eligibility available if the coaching staff offered it and they chose to take advantage of it.
 
Drake Johnson, Amara Darboh, Jehu Chesson, Erik Magnuson, Kyle Kalis, Ben Braden, Blake Bars, Matt Godin, Chris Wormley, Ryan Glasgow, Willie Henry, Tom Strobel, Allen Gant, Terry Richardson, Jeremy Clark and Kenny Allen all have that fifth-year option. Some, like Jack Miller, whether because of injury concerns or other reasons, might chose to move on from college football into more lucrative careers. Some, like Blake Countess, if they’ve earned a Michigan undergraduate degree, might choose to move on to college football’s “greener pastures” where they would have immediate eligibility as graduate transfers. Some, because of their previous contributions and a perceived lack of need, won’t be offered that fifth year to play at Michigan.
 
Not counting any anticipated or unexpected transfers (such as what happened with Kyle Bosch, Michael Ferns and Dan Samuelson), dismissals (like Logan Tuley-Tillman), early NFL departures (like Devin Funchess) or “retirements”, the expected losses from the 2015 team will be Jake Rudock, Joe Kerridge, Sione Houma, A. J. Williams, Graham Glasgow, Mario Ojemudia, Royce Jenkins-Stone, James Ross III, Desmond Morgan, Joe Bolden, Wayne Lyons, Jarrod Wilson and Blake O’Neil.

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BlueCube

September 13th, 2015 at 9:29 AM ^

doesn't tell you who has had a redshirt.

So many of those you mentioned have another year like Wormley who will be a monster if he returns. If he continues as he has, he could leave this year. It might be the best for him but the Wolverine fan in me hopes he comes back. Also hope Butt comes back.

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Tater

September 13th, 2015 at 3:16 AM ^

Sparty will be lucky to beat Michigan at all this year.  Harbaugh remembers who broke his arm on a dirty play in 1984 and caused us to watch Chris Zurbrugg play QB the rest of the season.  I think it's safe to say that Harbaugh hates MSU as much as MSU hates Michigan.  This is really the first time that particular "intangible" has ever not been in MSU's corner.

Michigan will be ready to beat Sparty.  If Sparty does win, it isn't going to be anything close to "handily."

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