Wolvie3758

May 29th, 2017 at 12:40 PM ^

was the Last at large team in...Wow from possibly hosting a regional to last team in....Gotta turn things around but I like our draw..dont hav to go to Oreg St, LSU, Stanford, etc..

Joined: 12/12/2010

MGoPoints: 6338

chatster

May 29th, 2017 at 2:22 PM ^

I've mentioned this elesewhere, but college baseball records can be deceiving. Without disparaging Michigan baseball's 2017 season, because it was nice to see them nationally ranked at times this year, especially considering how they've typically been overshadowed by the success of the Michigan softball team, it's important to look at how their record was built. Also remember that of the 64 teams in the NCAA Tournament field, there are 31 automatic qualifiers. The Big Ten Conference is NOT considered to be one of the "power" baseball conferences (ranked seventh overall in conference RPI this season. LINK)

While Michigan baseball is 42-15 after being swept out of the Big Ten Tournament as the number 2 seed, keep in mind that Michigan didn’t play Nebraska (Big Ten regular season champions, but in NCAA Tournament as the lowest ranked two seed, having to play in the bracket with the tournament's top seed, Orgeon State), Minnesota (3rd place in Big Ten, but not in NCAA Tournament) or Iowa (tied for 4th in Big Ten, and an NCAA bid stealer as Big Ten Tournament champion.) Michigan's overall RPI was ranked 35th nationally, but only third ranked among Big Ten teams, behind Indiana at 26 and Maryland at 34. LINK

Michigan’s record against the other top teams in the Big Ten was 2-6, losing two of three to Maryland (tied for 4th in Big Ten, but in NCAA Tournament), three of four to Indiana (6th in Big Ten, but in NCAA Tournament), including two at home, and losing to Northwestern (not in NCAA Tournament) in the opening game of the Big Ten Tournament. They were 9-3 against the bottom four teams in the Big Ten – Illinois (23-28 overall), Ohio State (22-34 overall), Rutgers (19-34 overall) and Penn State (18-37 overall), with their only sweep of those teams coming against Rutgers.
 
Although a 9-3 record against non-conference teams with winning records is impressive, of the eighteen teams Michigan played outside the Big Ten in building a 26-6 non-conference record, only seven of them have winning records this season – Seton Hall (29-24, swept out of Big East Tournament), St, Louis (35-22; lost in Atlantic-10 Tournament semi-final to Davidson), Loyola Marymount (38-18; 20-7 in West Coast Conference), UCLA (30-25; in NCAA Tournament), San Diego (35-18-1), Central Michigan (31-28; lost in MAC Tournament semi-final to Eastern Michigan) and Oklahoma (34-21; in NCAA Tournament).
 
The sweep of three games against Oklahoma at the Wilpon Complex in mid-April might seem like it represents Michigan’s strongest showing, especially because it came against a team that also was ranked in the Top 25 just before the conference tournaments began, but those wins came in the middle of a 1-9 streak for the Sooners. Since April 7, Oklahoma’s record is 8-16 and they were swept out of the Big 12 Tournament, after losing to Texas and Oklahoma State.
 
Combine Michigan's 2-6 record against the top teams in the Big Ten with its 9-3 record against non-conference teams with winning records, and that 11-9 record in those games might not look all that impressive. Michigan was only 5-5 against teams in the RPI Top 50 and, like first-round opponent Florida Gulf Coast University, was 12-9 against the RPI Top 100. LINK

Joined: 09/14/2010

MGoPoints: 26926

Human Torpedo

May 29th, 2017 at 3:55 PM ^

Combine that with our 21 bowl wins and 27 NCAA tourney berths in basketball and I believe that makes us one of just 7 schools with at least 20 in each postseason category (Oklahoma, Texas, LSU, Tennessee, Alabama, Ohio State)

Joined: 01/15/2016

MGoPoints: 2195

Alton

May 29th, 2017 at 6:07 PM ^

So the good news is that Florida Gulf Coast University is easily the worst 2-seed in the tournament, and Michigan is probably the best or second best 3-seed in the tournament (along with South Alabama).  Some sample computer ratings by the more well-known and accepted rating systems...

RPI:  #2 UNC, #33 FGCU, #35 Michigan, #126 Davidson

Boyd's ISR:  #2 UNC, #25 Michigan, #60 FGCU, #153 Davidson

Nolan's NPI:  #3 UNC, #18 Michigan, #32 FGCU, #103 Davidson

Massey:  #2 UNC, #25 Michigan, #51 FGCU, #148 Davidson

So even though Michigan is the 3-seed, the rating systems seem to favor Michigan over Florida Gulf Coast.  Massey says Michigan has a 60% chance of winning their first-round game.

But here's the bad news...baseball is a very different game than other sports, because the pitching rotation plays a significant role in the matchup.  And here's FGCU's starting rotation:

Kutter Crawford (7-1, 1.58 ERA, 10.3 K/9, .192 opp avg)
Josh Dye (8-4, 3.32 ERA, 7.4 K/9, .263 opp avg)
Garrett Anderson (7-1, 3.43 ERA, 7.2 K/9, .282 opp avg)

Assuming FGCU pitches the (awsomely-named) Kutter Crawford, Michigan will be starting out with a pretty big disadvantage.  Michigan's rotation is more even, and as a result Michigan's strength is when they get down to the #3 and #4 starters--they match up well against anybody at #4.  These are the last teams you want to play in the first round:  the team with the dominant starter.  Oliver Jaskie is a great #1 pitcher for Michigan, but he doesn't have the dominating numbers that Crawford does.

 

Joined: 07/05/2008

MGoPoints: 13273