Ball Distribution
I have been thinking for a while that we are out of footballs if the "Insiders" are correct. Let's say we get 70 offensive snaps off in a game. 45 runs and 25 passes. We have
Tate 5
Denard 5
Minor 18
Brown 8
Shaw 5
Grady 2
Smith 2
Of the 25 passes maybe 14 completions
Odoms 4
Matthews 3
Hemmingway 2
Koger 2
Minor 1
Grady 1
Roundtree 1
So not to be a wet blanket, but we are going to have some pretty unhappy skill players this year if we are relatively healthy. We need more snaps we're going to have to increase our tempo this year if we can actually get a 1st down and try to get over 80 snaps.
August 21st, 2009 at 9:47 AM ^
You're now psychoanalyzing season predictions. Really, this is unhealthy. How about we just let them play and not manufacture crises before they occur?
There is something to be said for depth. I imagine injuries will take care of many of your concerns regarding "ball distribution," because as I look at your list above, I see exactly two returning players who played every game last year. As it stands, history tells us to expect Minor and Brown, IF WE'RE LUCKY, to combine for a full season, let alone each be healthy for the whole thing.
August 21st, 2009 at 10:03 AM ^
Just trying to point out that as everyone gets excited about practice reports the reality of the situation is that there are only so many snaps so to think 20 guys are looking to break out this year is a fallacy and that hopefully the players themselves realize this. Just saying we have heard positive reports about all these guys really impressing and receiving playing time this year from RR to the guys behind paywalls
QB 2 Drob and Tate
RB 7 Minor, Brown, Shaw, Grady, Moundros, Smith, Cox
WR 8 Matthews, Savoy, Hemmingway, Roundtree, Stokes, Grady, Stonum, Odoms
TE 2 Webb and Koger
So that leaves T Rob, Rodgers, Toussaint, Gallon and Gordon as Redshirt or no PT guys.
August 21st, 2009 at 11:10 AM ^
This is a problem?
If I recall correctly such programs as Florida and USC deal with this EVERY year with 5 star players galore. They seem to be doing OK.
In situations like this you usually look for the cream to rise to the top. Competition is a GOOD thing.
One more note...remember Hart's freshman year, we had absolutely no one to run the ball for us. David F'ing Underwood was our starter. Luckily we had a little 3 star from upstate NY to save our season.
August 21st, 2009 at 11:28 AM ^
Never said it is a problem. Just pointing out the absurdity of peoples expectations that 10 guys are going to have great years based on practice reports. Depth is great.
August 21st, 2009 at 9:47 AM ^
He is like minus 5 or 6. So we win for losing there. Right?
(I really don't hate him. I actually will always have a spot in my heart for him and Threet....when we look back, they will be appreciated)(in an empathetic way)
August 21st, 2009 at 9:51 AM ^
There will probably be only about 10 runs per game, and 5 passes.
8 of the runs will go for TDs, and 4 of the passes will be completed, 3 for TDs.
August 21st, 2009 at 9:50 AM ^
Nothing to worry about here. As per RR policy, everyone will get quality ball touches.
August 21st, 2009 at 9:51 AM ^
is very dirty
August 21st, 2009 at 10:02 AM ^
but you got a dirty mind ;)
August 21st, 2009 at 10:12 AM ^
The people that are sticking this out realize the RR has created a competition and the winners will get the touches. The others will get some and the hope is that everyone who touches the ball will be out to prove something and we get a ton of big plays out of every capable player. If you are good enough you will get your chance on the field you just have to make the best of it to continue to get those chances.
August 21st, 2009 at 11:12 AM ^
Well played sir. This "problem" is something I hope UofM has for years to come.
August 21st, 2009 at 10:41 AM ^
I think you have way too many runs in there for the backups (Shaw and Smith, in particular).
Also, if we throw the ball 25 times, I would expect more than 14 completions.
Also, I would expect a more even distribution between run and pass. We've got an accurate QB now and I think we'll use him.
August 21st, 2009 at 10:50 AM ^
Yeah I don't think the backups like Smith and Shaw will see much PT in a tight Big Ten game. That was optimistic trying to point out they won't be seeing much PT but adding their name so you didn't forget about their break out year coming up. As for better completion% and more even run pass distribution. I say if you think we'll have a better than 60% completion rate and a 50/50 run pass distribution with a true frosh at QB and that stable of RB's and Denard's legs at RR's disposal I think you are off base. Next year and beyond I agree with you. Not this year, behind that line we are going to be pounding and pounding Minor this year with some hopefully wide open passes mixed in. If you are correct Forcier will be a UM legend, have a pro career and we are around 8-4 9-3 this year. I hope you are right, I'll lay on my sword gladly.
August 21st, 2009 at 11:00 AM ^
I don't think it will be a 50/50 run/pass distribution. I just think it will be better than 45 runs/25 passes.
Regarding completion percentage, I don't think Tate has ever been below 60% (granted, that's against high school competition). Pat White's only year below 60% was his freshman year, and even then he a) wasn't as polished as Tate and b) wasn't much below 60%.
Anyway, I'm guessing Tate's completion percentage will be 62% to 65%. That's not worlds better than 14-for-25, but it's a difference of a couple throws here or there.
August 21st, 2009 at 11:21 AM ^
I think he'll get into the 60s percentage wise. I know Henne's completion percentage was lower, but that was in a different offense. I'd guess that the bubble screens and throws to RBs will give an reasonable QB a 10% ish jump just by safer throws to make.
August 21st, 2009 at 11:15 AM ^
These things have a way of working themselves out.
August 21st, 2009 at 12:27 PM ^
I don't see the problem with this, this a problem I want to have every season. Nobody should be complaining about having a plethora of playmakers to get the ball to.
August 21st, 2009 at 12:43 PM ^
In a normal (i.e. close) game, I don't think you're going to see five different tailbacks carry the ball. I also doubt that two different backs will catch passes in the same game.
August 21st, 2009 at 12:44 PM ^
I think last year may have skewed your idea of how much younger players are supposed to get the ball. I'm not trying to talk down to you, I had the same expectations with DT recruiting, but I was reminded that players like Martin, Branch, Hart are the exceptions, not the rule.
It should be common place to have 2-3 younger back ups at each position. As they get older they move up on the depth chart and ideally have 1-2 years as upperclassmen where they can shine.
Minor and Brown will get the majority of the carries with Shaw and Smith getting situational work. Next year those two have the opportunity to be the regular starters.
As for WRs, we should expect a lot of 4 WR sets, so people will get their shot. The same cycling of players will continue as the older ones graduate.
Also, to echo the point on injuries working this out, some players aren't going to get any touches in one game, but then might break out in another. We shouldn't expect perfect equality, but I wouldn't be surprised to see each younger player have 1 or 2 (relatively) big games, while also having some clunkers.
August 21st, 2009 at 1:19 PM ^
the ultimate goal is to hit the open receiver for the best gain, not to distribute the ball in the manner most likely to produce smiley faces. there is a natrual flow to ball distribution; it should not be mechanically pre-determined.
August 21st, 2009 at 2:45 PM ^
In the Eastern Michigan and Delaware State games (Delaware St., especially), I'll be incredibly surprised if we see many of the offensive starters in the second half. Matter of fact, I would expect guys like Minor and Brown to be rested for that whole game. In that situation, players like V. Smith, Mike COX, Kl. Grady, Stokes and (if redshirt is burned) Gallon should get some really good experience, which would mean, ball distribution (on defense as well, Graham, Martin, Warren, S. Brown and Ezeh should sit most of the second halves of those games too.)
Of course, I'm hoping they can get experience during fourth quarter leads against Western, Notre Dame and Indiana too, but I'll take the two games above to start.
August 21st, 2009 at 4:57 PM ^
You don't sit a healthy starter for any game. If it's a blowout, you pull them when the outcome's decided, but you don't just bench them. It's best to treat these games as normally as possible.
What's more likely to happen in those games is that our first string plays the entire first three quarters, and then the subs come in for the fourth.