Bad Vibes on Danny O

Submitted by CincyBlue on

I was very surprised to hear on today's Recruiting Roundup that Sam Webb has a gut feeling that Danny O'Brien won't come to Michigan. 

He thinks it could come down to Tenn and MSU.   With Matt Godin and all the time he has been spending in Ann Arbor, I thought Michigan was the team to beat.

kriegers

September 23rd, 2011 at 11:35 AM ^

He scheduled his visits to Tenn (and MSU) long before the announcement date was set, so the subsequent visit plans shouldn't really matter either way.

Normally, announcing before a visit is a good sign for the schools previously visited. I don't understand why this logic is incorrect in this case. 

When recruits announce prior to completing their visits don't they generally just cancel the remaining visits?  

Plus, wouldn't a recruit just wait another week to see Tenn before committing?

I'm not saying he's picking M, but I don't think his visit date to Tenn has any real significance.

kriegers

September 23rd, 2011 at 12:36 PM ^

That's sort of my point: recruits don't cancel pre-planned visits - they just move their announcement date up.

I think it's pretty rare for a recruit to announce before a visit for the school he has yet to visit - doesn't mean it's not going to happen here, but it def goes against conventional wisdom. 

For example: recruit X is planning to go visit schools 1-5 on the next five weekends. X set's an announcement date before visit three. It's pretty rare that X announces for school 3, 4 or 5. If so, just wait for the visit to announce. 

dgerichs

September 23rd, 2011 at 2:50 PM ^

You are the first person whose view makes sense to me. Maybe Danny O is such a Michigan lean that he feels guilty about visiting Tennessee at this point. By announcing the week before, he might just be avoiding having to make the visit. I do think he feels some loyalty to Tennessee since they were the first top flight program to take an interest in him. Little known fact is that O'Brien called the Michigan coaching staff right after Pipkins committed. Probably to verify whether they still wanted him. If they say no, the spot is taken, why does he visit for the ND game? His chance to be a Wolverine had to still be there. The staff either told him "yes" or "maybe".  "yes" and he is a Wolverine in two weeks. "maybe" and it is wait until the final recruiting numbers shake out. Both are possible. I am hoping that the answer was "yes"

MGoCooper

September 23rd, 2011 at 11:06 AM ^

All my guys from Powers, have been saying he's going to UT for about 2 weeks now.  I wish we had room for Danny, but I think the Michigan coaches really think they can get Garnett&Banner, and probably Dunn as well. The final 4 of this class, are probably going to be those 3 and Payton.

Logan88

September 23rd, 2011 at 10:11 AM ^

Personally, I am always somewhat leery of the "coaches cooled on the guy" line which often gets dragged out when a player we all want suddenly seems to no longer be interested in UM.

 

Note: I am not calling you out nor am I really taking issue with Sam (after all, Sam is the man!). Just expressing some general skepticism over this oft-used recruiting statement.

UMaD

September 23rd, 2011 at 11:24 AM ^

He's a top 5 in-state player at a position of need that the coaches supposedly weren't holding a spot for...until they were...now supposedly it's off again.  Hard to buy. 

 

Tennessee always led for O'Brien.  The recruiting sites may have tried to turn this into a more dramatic situation than it was.  It didn't look good with his official visit scheduled just after his announcement, but Michigan optimists said he would just cancel that visit.  That seemed plausible but unlikely to me.

Anyway, it's a big recruiting loss.  If Pipkins decommits or doesn't pan out into an instant contributor, the 2012 DL is going to be scary in not a good way. 

Jon Benke

September 23rd, 2011 at 12:36 PM ^

"If Pipkins decommits or doesn't pan out into an instant contributor, the 2012 DL is going to be scary in not a good way"

Wormley, Strobel, Godin, and Brown might have something to say about that.  This isn't a Ondre Pipkins or bust DL class we have here.

UMaD

September 23rd, 2011 at 1:15 PM ^

Three of the top 4 interior linemen graduate.  Campbell returns, but he's still inconsistent.  There is no proven NT. 

Those recruits are DE who are tall and thin.  Some may project to DT, but would need seasoning before they could be productive inside, let alone at NT.  In the long run, the DL should be fine, but in 2012 it's scary w/o Pipkins being as good as we all hope.

We'd be back to hoping that Ash or Washington step up, but they're currently being outplayed by not one, but two walk-ons.

WolvinLA2

September 23rd, 2011 at 3:12 PM ^

It's hard to say that those guys are being outplayed by Brink, since Brink has been playing the 5-tech and those guys are 1- or 3-tech players.  And Heininger is also more of a 5- or 3-tech tweener, not to mention that he's a fifth year senior.  Ash is a RS frosh and Q is still two years younger than Heininger and in his starting his second year on the DL. 

Let's not worry too much about those two just yet, and I wouldn't completely discount Wilkins either. 

UMaD

September 23rd, 2011 at 4:03 PM ^

should be the backup 5-tech in an ideal world.  If Q and Ash were doing their job, that's where he'd be, and Brink wouldn't see the field.  There's obviously some fluidity between the positions on the line, so there's been some shuffling to get the best players out there.  It's clear that Ash/Washington are behind Brink/Heininger overall.

The staff would rather keep RVB and Heininger at the 5-tech, but they have to shuffle inside out of necessity.

WolvinLA2

September 23rd, 2011 at 6:04 PM ^

I agree with your last paragraph, which is why I agree that Heininger is ahead of Ash and Q.  I don't see why Brink is ahead of them.  Plus, Brink doesn't get that much more PT than Q.  Anyway, those two aren't going to play the same position.  Ash is a RS frosh, cut him some slack. 

UMaD

September 23rd, 2011 at 7:58 PM ^

Ash deserves an open mind.  It's a little disappointing he's not there yet on a thin DL, but everyone said he was raw coming out of high school, so he deserves patience.

Still, it's a concern because you can't necessarily count him in (or out) of the rotation.

WolvinLA2

September 23rd, 2011 at 1:08 PM ^

In 2012, Pipkins will be a frosh and Q will be a junior.  Those will be our top two NTs.  BWC will be a senior, Richard Ash will be a sophomore, Chris Rock will be a freshman, Kenny Wilkins will be a sophomore and Godin and Wormley will be here.  Two of those will be our 2-deep at 3-tech.  At the 5-tech it's dicier with Brink, Heitzman and Strobel.  However, with all of the guys at 3-tech, a guy like Rock or Wilkins or Wormley or Godin could play 5-tech instead.  At WDE we have Roh (Sr), Black (Jr.), Clark (So), and true frosh Brown and Ojemudia. 

That's not a 2-deep of 8 All Americans, but I don't know if Danny O'Brien makes or breaks our DL for the next couple years.

WolvinLA2

September 23rd, 2011 at 3:17 PM ^

You use this word "walk-on" far too much.  Just because they are walk-ons does not mean they can't also be solid players.  Some guys fall short of hype, and some guys exceed it.  And in the case of Heininger, he's one of two 5th year seniors on the DL, and one of a handful who has in-game experience, so it's not a surprise he's getting more reps early. 

There are a lot of guys who don't see the field a lot as a RS frosh and then figure things out as an upperclassman.  The first 2.5 years Demens was in the program we heard nothing about him, and now he's a solid starter as a junior.  We don't need all of them to pan out, just one to start next to BWC.

UMaD

September 23rd, 2011 at 4:13 PM ^

There are plenty of walk-on 5th year seniors who are half-decent in the secondary and there are true freshman and sophomores who are ahead of them.  That happens pretty much every season.

The fact that Q, who is in his 3rd year, and Ash are behind these guys is not a good.  They could develop, sure.  I'm totally with you the don't-judge-RS-Freshman-too-soon thing, but the fact that they're behind walk-ons is a bad start, no matter how you want to spin the quality of those walk-ons. 

The DT position rotates regularly.  We need 4 guys there, not 2.  BWC looks promising, but comes with obvious issues and uncertainties.  That's the only guy you can call a lock for the rotation next year, and he hasn't shown he can hold up at NT yet.

The optimist says that Pipkins will contribute instantly, Ash or Q will develop enough to not be a liability, BWC will step up as a starter, and someone out of Rock/Wilkins/etc will be in the roation too.  I hope that's correct...but without Pipkins holding down NT, I'll be very concerned about the interior line. 

WolvinLA2

September 23rd, 2011 at 6:09 PM ^

I think it's safe to predict that between Q and Pipkins, there will be a decent starter and a solid back-up at NT.  That spot will not be a bright spot on our D, but I don't think it will be a liability either.  Assuming BWC starts at 3-tech, we have Ash/Wilkins/Rock/true frosh to back him up.  Someone from that group will emerge as at least a back up.  Brink/Heitzman/Wilkins/frosh will hold down the 5-tech well enough.

Let me say that I agree DL will be the weakest spot on the D next fall.  I think they'll be adequate though, and I think the back 7 will be good-to-great which should make up for it.

PurpleStuff

September 23rd, 2011 at 12:14 PM ^

It is producing 226.7 yards per game and 6.7 yards per carry.  Our top 4 running backs are averaging 7.0 yards per carry (same as Denard) as a group and have scored 5 TDs in three games.

The freakout people are having because Stephen Hopkins had a few unproductive carries against ND is getting ridiculous.

 

AA2Denver

September 23rd, 2011 at 11:28 AM ^

O'Brien looks like a great player and seems like a nice kid and I wish him well. However, the class already includes Pipkins and Godin at DT, and a host of DEs that could move inside. Competition for playing time and 'being the man' will be tight. I like the class as it stands and if we only land one more player, such as Payton, I'd still be very-very happy. 

Early evidence suggests our '13 haul will be top 5-10 again. In the very near future we'll have a squad capable of competing for BCS championships. 

I unbuckled a month ago and I'm kind of over recruiting for now. 

 

clarkiefromcanada

September 23rd, 2011 at 12:45 PM ^

The truth is that if he wanted to be here he could have committed earlier; prior to Pipkins or when Matt Godin committed. It will be easier for him to find playing time at Tennessee and maybe, despite my maize and blue glasses, that's just the best fit for him.

Good luck to him; I'd be glad if he came but if Tenn. is the right fit then fair enough. I'm sure he won't be going to Sparty so he can get his ass handed to him for years by Kyle Kalis and his nasty streak. Better the SEC.

sheepman

September 23rd, 2011 at 9:48 AM ^

This sucks. He looked like he was having so much fun at the ND game on field when he came to the student section. I wish we could know what really was happening.

Well, if not Michigan - hopefully he is Tennessee bound.