Bad Vibes on Danny O
I was very surprised to hear on today's Recruiting Roundup that Sam Webb has a gut feeling that Danny O'Brien won't come to Michigan.
He thinks it could come down to Tenn and MSU. With Matt Godin and all the time he has been spending in Ann Arbor, I thought Michigan was the team to beat.
September 23rd, 2011 at 9:44 AM ^
But Sam seemed to imply it was the coaches more than Danny that have cooled. Possibly prioritizing other positions. Did I hear that right?
September 23rd, 2011 at 9:47 AM ^
and O'Brien got his "firm" offer after summer camp. Ugh if this is true
September 23rd, 2011 at 10:03 AM ^
Danny will end up at Tennessee. The numbers are just getting too tight with this class.
September 23rd, 2011 at 10:32 AM ^
why would he schedule an official to a school he is not committing to AFTER his announcment. all signs point to Rocky Top.
September 23rd, 2011 at 10:39 AM ^
I am genuinely curious to know the reasoning.
September 23rd, 2011 at 10:44 AM ^
I'd love to know too. Was honestly just stating my opinion.
September 23rd, 2011 at 10:54 AM ^
I logged in just to bump you back up to zero. There has been a rash of negs lately that make no sense.
September 23rd, 2011 at 12:14 PM ^
I didn't neg ya, but my guess is that it's a residual effect of an earlier thread that went WAAYYY too deep into the reasoning behind moving his visit.
September 23rd, 2011 at 11:35 AM ^
He scheduled his visits to Tenn (and MSU) long before the announcement date was set, so the subsequent visit plans shouldn't really matter either way.
Normally, announcing before a visit is a good sign for the schools previously visited. I don't understand why this logic is incorrect in this case.
When recruits announce prior to completing their visits don't they generally just cancel the remaining visits?
Plus, wouldn't a recruit just wait another week to see Tenn before committing?
I'm not saying he's picking M, but I don't think his visit date to Tenn has any real significance.
September 23rd, 2011 at 12:03 PM ^
The fact of the timing of the visit is insignifigant, but the fact that he has not canceled said visit is very telling.
September 23rd, 2011 at 12:14 PM ^
What is so telling about the fact that he didn't (yet) cancel upcoming visits to both UT and MSU? Someone can correct my if I'm wrong, but recruits don't usually cancel visits before their announcement.
September 23rd, 2011 at 12:22 PM ^
we know where he's going. Why announce if you're Not going visit Tenn or MSU, then we know he picks M.
Gotta keep the anticipation!!!
September 23rd, 2011 at 12:36 PM ^
That's sort of my point: recruits don't cancel pre-planned visits - they just move their announcement date up.
I think it's pretty rare for a recruit to announce before a visit for the school he has yet to visit - doesn't mean it's not going to happen here, but it def goes against conventional wisdom.
For example: recruit X is planning to go visit schools 1-5 on the next five weekends. X set's an announcement date before visit three. It's pretty rare that X announces for school 3, 4 or 5. If so, just wait for the visit to announce.
September 23rd, 2011 at 1:34 PM ^
He wanted to announce the day before his homecoming game. Its not like he moved it up to some random date.
September 23rd, 2011 at 3:04 PM ^
So he is going to announce at the big event during homecoming that he is leaving the state of Michigan , Uof M and MSU, to go to Tennessee? Seems like he would want that time to make a positive splash. I think it will be Michigan or MSU.
September 23rd, 2011 at 3:05 PM ^
Announcing he is getting a full ride scholarship to play football if the top football conference in the country is pretty damn positive. From your M centric viewpoint it might be a negative but to most, this is a tremendous accomplishment and opportunity for Danny O.
September 23rd, 2011 at 3:11 PM ^
Not for the crowd in attendance. Look up above your post. I am saying Michigan or MSU
September 23rd, 2011 at 2:50 PM ^
You are the first person whose view makes sense to me. Maybe Danny O is such a Michigan lean that he feels guilty about visiting Tennessee at this point. By announcing the week before, he might just be avoiding having to make the visit. I do think he feels some loyalty to Tennessee since they were the first top flight program to take an interest in him. Little known fact is that O'Brien called the Michigan coaching staff right after Pipkins committed. Probably to verify whether they still wanted him. If they say no, the spot is taken, why does he visit for the ND game? His chance to be a Wolverine had to still be there. The staff either told him "yes" or "maybe". "yes" and he is a Wolverine in two weeks. "maybe" and it is wait until the final recruiting numbers shake out. Both are possible. I am hoping that the answer was "yes"
September 23rd, 2011 at 11:06 AM ^
All my guys from Powers, have been saying he's going to UT for about 2 weeks now. I wish we had room for Danny, but I think the Michigan coaches really think they can get Garnett&Banner, and probably Dunn as well. The final 4 of this class, are probably going to be those 3 and Payton.
September 23rd, 2011 at 12:34 PM ^
I hope I'm wrong, but I'd bet both Garnett AND Banner coming to Michigan is a stretch.
September 23rd, 2011 at 2:07 PM ^
it's too much to take that many ol one year. I think they should stock with what they have and take another 4-5 next year to help regain some kind of balance.
In the same vein, they should take 2 dt to make up for recruiting under rr and help stabilize dt numbers.
September 23rd, 2011 at 10:11 AM ^
Personally, I am always somewhat leery of the "coaches cooled on the guy" line which often gets dragged out when a player we all want suddenly seems to no longer be interested in UM.
Note: I am not calling you out nor am I really taking issue with Sam (after all, Sam is the man!). Just expressing some general skepticism over this oft-used recruiting statement.
September 23rd, 2011 at 10:47 AM ^
I agree with your statement. I really did only catch the tail end, so I was more looking for confirmation from someone that heard the whole segment. I agree its interesting that every time a recruit picks another school there is someone claiming "the coaches cooled".
September 23rd, 2011 at 11:24 AM ^
He's a top 5 in-state player at a position of need that the coaches supposedly weren't holding a spot for...until they were...now supposedly it's off again. Hard to buy.
Tennessee always led for O'Brien. The recruiting sites may have tried to turn this into a more dramatic situation than it was. It didn't look good with his official visit scheduled just after his announcement, but Michigan optimists said he would just cancel that visit. That seemed plausible but unlikely to me.
Anyway, it's a big recruiting loss. If Pipkins decommits or doesn't pan out into an instant contributor, the 2012 DL is going to be scary in not a good way.
September 23rd, 2011 at 12:36 PM ^
"If Pipkins decommits or doesn't pan out into an instant contributor, the 2012 DL is going to be scary in not a good way"
Wormley, Strobel, Godin, and Brown might have something to say about that. This isn't a Ondre Pipkins or bust DL class we have here.
September 23rd, 2011 at 1:15 PM ^
Three of the top 4 interior linemen graduate. Campbell returns, but he's still inconsistent. There is no proven NT.
Those recruits are DE who are tall and thin. Some may project to DT, but would need seasoning before they could be productive inside, let alone at NT. In the long run, the DL should be fine, but in 2012 it's scary w/o Pipkins being as good as we all hope.
We'd be back to hoping that Ash or Washington step up, but they're currently being outplayed by not one, but two walk-ons.
September 23rd, 2011 at 3:12 PM ^
It's hard to say that those guys are being outplayed by Brink, since Brink has been playing the 5-tech and those guys are 1- or 3-tech players. And Heininger is also more of a 5- or 3-tech tweener, not to mention that he's a fifth year senior. Ash is a RS frosh and Q is still two years younger than Heininger and in his starting his second year on the DL.
Let's not worry too much about those two just yet, and I wouldn't completely discount Wilkins either.
September 23rd, 2011 at 4:03 PM ^
should be the backup 5-tech in an ideal world. If Q and Ash were doing their job, that's where he'd be, and Brink wouldn't see the field. There's obviously some fluidity between the positions on the line, so there's been some shuffling to get the best players out there. It's clear that Ash/Washington are behind Brink/Heininger overall.
The staff would rather keep RVB and Heininger at the 5-tech, but they have to shuffle inside out of necessity.
September 23rd, 2011 at 6:04 PM ^
I agree with your last paragraph, which is why I agree that Heininger is ahead of Ash and Q. I don't see why Brink is ahead of them. Plus, Brink doesn't get that much more PT than Q. Anyway, those two aren't going to play the same position. Ash is a RS frosh, cut him some slack.
September 23rd, 2011 at 7:58 PM ^
Ash deserves an open mind. It's a little disappointing he's not there yet on a thin DL, but everyone said he was raw coming out of high school, so he deserves patience.
Still, it's a concern because you can't necessarily count him in (or out) of the rotation.
September 23rd, 2011 at 10:32 AM ^
That said, for the coaches to turn down a highly rated DT at a position of need, it must mean that they are feeling pretty good about our chances with Banner/Diamond, Yuri, Dunn, and Payton/Darboh to finish out this class.
September 23rd, 2011 at 12:53 PM ^
It's safe to assume we'll finish strong, either way.
September 23rd, 2011 at 10:43 AM ^
Of course the coaches know better, blah, blah blah, but the interior of our D Line looks horrendous after Martin and RVB graduate. I'd frankly rather have Obrien than Dunn or Wright.
September 23rd, 2011 at 11:14 AM ^
Have you seen our running game this year? I think Dunn could come in and contribute right away.
I think the staff sees Pipkins at the nose, and Wormley bulking up to play the 3-tech position. I'm not sure Danny O would crack the depth chart above either of those two.
September 23rd, 2011 at 12:05 PM ^
BEHIND those 2 because after next year there isn't one. Seriously, the DT depth is beyond scary and WAY WAY more concerning than our depth at RB..
September 23rd, 2011 at 12:55 PM ^
BWC is here for another year with signs of possibly beginning to "get it"
September 23rd, 2011 at 1:08 PM ^
In 2012, Pipkins will be a frosh and Q will be a junior. Those will be our top two NTs. BWC will be a senior, Richard Ash will be a sophomore, Chris Rock will be a freshman, Kenny Wilkins will be a sophomore and Godin and Wormley will be here. Two of those will be our 2-deep at 3-tech. At the 5-tech it's dicier with Brink, Heitzman and Strobel. However, with all of the guys at 3-tech, a guy like Rock or Wilkins or Wormley or Godin could play 5-tech instead. At WDE we have Roh (Sr), Black (Jr.), Clark (So), and true frosh Brown and Ojemudia.
That's not a 2-deep of 8 All Americans, but I don't know if Danny O'Brien makes or breaks our DL for the next couple years.
September 23rd, 2011 at 1:17 PM ^
In guys who are currently playing behind walk-ons.
DE should be a strength, but DT is a total unknown.
September 23rd, 2011 at 3:17 PM ^
You use this word "walk-on" far too much. Just because they are walk-ons does not mean they can't also be solid players. Some guys fall short of hype, and some guys exceed it. And in the case of Heininger, he's one of two 5th year seniors on the DL, and one of a handful who has in-game experience, so it's not a surprise he's getting more reps early.
There are a lot of guys who don't see the field a lot as a RS frosh and then figure things out as an upperclassman. The first 2.5 years Demens was in the program we heard nothing about him, and now he's a solid starter as a junior. We don't need all of them to pan out, just one to start next to BWC.
September 23rd, 2011 at 4:13 PM ^
There are plenty of walk-on 5th year seniors who are half-decent in the secondary and there are true freshman and sophomores who are ahead of them. That happens pretty much every season.
The fact that Q, who is in his 3rd year, and Ash are behind these guys is not a good. They could develop, sure. I'm totally with you the don't-judge-RS-Freshman-too-soon thing, but the fact that they're behind walk-ons is a bad start, no matter how you want to spin the quality of those walk-ons.
The DT position rotates regularly. We need 4 guys there, not 2. BWC looks promising, but comes with obvious issues and uncertainties. That's the only guy you can call a lock for the rotation next year, and he hasn't shown he can hold up at NT yet.
The optimist says that Pipkins will contribute instantly, Ash or Q will develop enough to not be a liability, BWC will step up as a starter, and someone out of Rock/Wilkins/etc will be in the roation too. I hope that's correct...but without Pipkins holding down NT, I'll be very concerned about the interior line.
September 23rd, 2011 at 6:09 PM ^
I think it's safe to predict that between Q and Pipkins, there will be a decent starter and a solid back-up at NT. That spot will not be a bright spot on our D, but I don't think it will be a liability either. Assuming BWC starts at 3-tech, we have Ash/Wilkins/Rock/true frosh to back him up. Someone from that group will emerge as at least a back up. Brink/Heitzman/Wilkins/frosh will hold down the 5-tech well enough.
Let me say that I agree DL will be the weakest spot on the D next fall. I think they'll be adequate though, and I think the back 7 will be good-to-great which should make up for it.
September 23rd, 2011 at 3:16 PM ^
Ohio offerred Stroebel as a 3 tech.
September 23rd, 2011 at 12:14 PM ^
It is producing 226.7 yards per game and 6.7 yards per carry. Our top 4 running backs are averaging 7.0 yards per carry (same as Denard) as a group and have scored 5 TDs in three games.
The freakout people are having because Stephen Hopkins had a few unproductive carries against ND is getting ridiculous.
September 23rd, 2011 at 1:37 PM ^
because Smith is starting.
September 23rd, 2011 at 11:28 AM ^
O'Brien looks like a great player and seems like a nice kid and I wish him well. However, the class already includes Pipkins and Godin at DT, and a host of DEs that could move inside. Competition for playing time and 'being the man' will be tight. I like the class as it stands and if we only land one more player, such as Payton, I'd still be very-very happy.
Early evidence suggests our '13 haul will be top 5-10 again. In the very near future we'll have a squad capable of competing for BCS championships.
I unbuckled a month ago and I'm kind of over recruiting for now.
September 23rd, 2011 at 12:45 PM ^
The truth is that if he wanted to be here he could have committed earlier; prior to Pipkins or when Matt Godin committed. It will be easier for him to find playing time at Tennessee and maybe, despite my maize and blue glasses, that's just the best fit for him.
Good luck to him; I'd be glad if he came but if Tenn. is the right fit then fair enough. I'm sure he won't be going to Sparty so he can get his ass handed to him for years by Kyle Kalis and his nasty streak. Better the SEC.
September 23rd, 2011 at 1:50 PM ^
Why is everyone saying that Godin is going to be a DT. I thought he specifically said that Mattison recruited him to play the 5-tech spot.
September 23rd, 2011 at 9:44 AM ^
First time in awhile where I did not like Sam's gut feeling. That's a bummer.
September 23rd, 2011 at 9:48 AM ^
This sucks. He looked like he was having so much fun at the ND game on field when he came to the student section. I wish we could know what really was happening.
Well, if not Michigan - hopefully he is Tennessee bound.