well, if you're gonna put words in my mouth, i might as well say them.
IDK about you guys, but i absolutely remember the Balls Tate game in 2006, which in hindsight fortold of bad things. Same with Toledo in 2008 and to a lesser extent Appy St in 2007.
Blowing up CMU (they lost their RB and QB in the 1st Qtr, IIRC) means absolutely nothing.
Beating ND the way we did absolutely means something (unfortunately Towson beat temple and purdue was even with ND for much of that game, so maybe ND isn't great either?).
Being literally 1 yard from a loss to a team who's among the worst 5-10 teams in DI-A football also means something.
every week is like a Bayesian data point.