B1G Team(s) in the CFP
So I wanted to get a feel for what the board thinks in regards to B1G team(s) getting into the CFB.
In my opinion, if Penn St beats Wisconsin next week in the B1G Championship, I do not see them getting left out of the CFP. For one, they will have beaten Ohio St head-to-head (who is also fighting for a CFP spot) and a Top 10 Wisconsin team. Their two losses will have come to Pittsburgh (a solid 8-4 team that also beat Clemson) and Michigan on the road when they were dealing with a lot of injuries. Also, in the last few weeks they have annihilated Iowa (a team that might not be so mediocre after all getting big wins over Michigan and Nebraska) and MSU (a team that some believe is better than their record indicates and played both Michigan and Ohio St tough at least in terms of those games' final scores).
If Penn St were to win next week, I could easily see a similar fall out a la 2014 when TCU fell from #3 to #6 in the final rankings despite beating their opponent by 50ish points in the final week of the season. Only this time I can see Ohio St getting snubbed in a similar fashion, and it would be justified as a Penn St team that beat them and won their conference would go instead.
I think it also really comes down to what the committee thinks of Washington. If Clemson takes care of business next week, there is no way they are left out after beating Auburn, Louisville, and FSU and being led by Deshaun Watson. Win and in for them. However, the playoff committee has been skeptical of Washington much of the year, but if they win next week they will have blown out a good WSU and beaten a Top 10 Colorado team. Washington would finish the season at 12-1 with their lone loss coming to a Top 10ish USC that has been widely regarded as the hottest team in college football right now. So I do not see them getting left out of the playoff.
So here are the my predictions for several scenarios and I assume that Alabama takes care of business against Florida and that the BIG 12 is out.
Clemson, Washington win; Penn St wins the B1G:
- Alabama
- Clemson
- Washington
- Penn St
- Ohio St
- Michigan
Maybe Ohio St gets in here instead of Washington.
Clemson, Washington win; Wisconsin wins the B1G:
- Alabama
- Ohio St/Clemson
- Clemson/Ohio St
- Washington
- Wisconsin
- Michigan
In this case, Ohio State will get the nod for CFP as they beat Wisconsin head-to-head and finished the season with one less loss than UW.
EITHER Clemson OR Washington lose:
- Alabama
- Ohio St (if Wisconsin wins B1G)/Clemson OR Washington
- Clemson OR Washington/PSU (if B1G Champion)
- Wisconsin (if B1G Champion)/Ohio St (if PSU wins B1G)
- Clemson OR Washington
- Michigan
In this case, either Washington or Clemson (whichever team loses) would be knocked out of the playoff. This would make room for two B1G teams. If UW wins, they get the 4th spot and OSU gets the 2nd/3rd spot. If PSU wins, they get the 3rd spot, and OSU gets the 4th spot.
If Clemson and Washingotn both lose, then things are totally fucked so I won't go over that scenario. Maybe that makes room for Colorado, the BIG 12, or possibly Michigan.
So do you agree or disagree with me? Am I right about OSU/PSU or am I way off?
*Also, I am not a PSU apologist. I hate them as much as anybody, but I think they have a strong case for the CFP.
November 27th, 2016 at 1:10 PM ^
Just a gut feeling, but the playoff committee will take the 4 conference champions and snub the Big 12 and G5.
Penn State / Wisconsin in the playoff will continue the streak of B1G teams scoring 0 points in playoff games.
November 27th, 2016 at 1:15 PM ^
Just sucks. UM (and OSU obviously) are better than either PSU or Wiscy. Yet how do you put a team in the playoff that didn't even win their division? Based on 2 of the 3 CFBP criteria both UM and OSU should be in, yet they most likely will not due to the way things shook out.
November 27th, 2016 at 1:23 PM ^
You're right, but I think it would be a reasonable rule that you have to finish either #1 or #2 in your conference to be eligible for a playoff spot. For the conferences with championship games, this means you'd have to at least make it to the conference championship game to be eligible.
What's the point in conference championship games if the committee can choose the #3 (or lower) team in the conference?
November 27th, 2016 at 1:26 PM ^
November 27th, 2016 at 1:28 PM ^
To be technical, they also pick the rest of the NY6 matchups.
November 27th, 2016 at 3:43 PM ^
I had this exact arguement today from a PSU fan. I claimed that the two best teams in the East weren't going to Indy and he was adament that PSU was the best in the East. I know they beat PSU but frankly if that game were played 100 times, Penn State would be lucky to win more than 5 or 10 times. Also, in the Michigan game the PSU side claimed that they were missing so many linebackers that it wasn't a fair fight. No quantity or quality of linebacker would have closed the 39 point gap in the PSU/M game.
As for the CFP, I think out of all of the scenerios, if PSU wins (unless it's a blowout) the decision whether or not to put them in is going to be the toughest and most controversial. Based on the eye test, the do not belong. They would certainly be 4 if that got in and Alabama would hand them a worse loss than they did against MSU last year.
November 27th, 2016 at 4:01 PM ^
November 30th, 2016 at 6:13 PM ^
November 27th, 2016 at 1:19 PM ^
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November 27th, 2016 at 1:28 PM ^
The NCAA and the B1G (and ESPN, btw) absolutely love OSU and Urban. There is no way that OSU gets excluded. Even if PSU wins out.
November 28th, 2016 at 12:35 PM ^
I have to agree with you. We'll know more when the CFP Committee releases its rankings (the only ones that matter). However, after beating Michigan, I don't see the Buckeyes falling out of the #2 spot. Given that, I don't see them falling out of the top 4, regardless of how the Conference Championships shake out.
But, let me make the argument that even by the "eye test," OSU is still not one of the top 4 teams in the country:
- Their passing offense falls apart any time they face a competent defense. The fancy stats bear this out. JT Barrett is LESS accurate this year than he was as a freshman starter.
- The fancy stats also say their special teams are nothing special, and their field goal kicker gets the yips in big games.
- Consequently, they let an OKish Penn State hang around long enough to win the game on a fluke play.
- And, beat a terrible Michigan State team by only one point and could have easily lost, again, in a revenge game from last year's stumble.
- And, they needed home filed advantage, egregiously biased officiating, a flukey pick-6 TD, Michigan's offense with an injured QB turtling in the second half, and overtime to beat Michigan.
Alabama would do unto Ohio State what they did unto Michigan State last year. People are skeptical of teams that seem to finagle their way into Conference Championship games, but I think they are overlooking how Conference Championships are a good screening device. To win a Championship in a Conference with a Championship Game you USUALLY have to:
- Play well over the course of an entire season, and lose no more that one Conference game (I say again, usually) to qualify for the Championship Game, and
- Then win another game against the best team (usually) the other Division has to offer, frequently a top 10 team, and almost always ranked at least.
The model for this would be, oh say...Ohio State in 2014. Making the Championship Game shows you're consistent. Winning it shows that you are peaking at the right time. This is not a bad rule of thumb, especially since the "eye test" can be so emphemeral.
November 27th, 2016 at 3:38 PM ^
2 Clemson v 3 Washington
Rose Bowl Ohio State v USC
Orange Bowl Michigan v Florida State
Sugar Bowl Bedlam winner v LSU
Cotton Bowl WMU vs B1GCG loser, Colorado, Bedlam loser or Louisville
Having Oklahoma State play WMU would be an interesting way for them to get another shot at the MAC.
Ohio State ain't getting in. We shall see if championships matter to the committee.
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November 27th, 2016 at 4:04 PM ^
I think the only scenario where OSU possibly gets left out is if PSU, Wash, and Clemson wins next week. If Clemson or Washington loses, then OSU easily gets in.
I just watched a College Playoff show on Fox where they had a scenario where 3 B1G teams (including Michigan) get in if Clemson and Washington lose. Now I want to see that happen just to see what the committee would do.
November 27th, 2016 at 1:12 PM ^
November 28th, 2016 at 12:37 PM ^
Rum, whiskey or vodka?
November 27th, 2016 at 1:13 PM ^
November 27th, 2016 at 1:17 PM ^
I'm surprised no one has made a thread regarding how awful the refs were yesterday.
November 27th, 2016 at 1:17 PM ^
+1 to you
November 27th, 2016 at 1:19 PM ^
This year is fascinating because there remains a very high chance of chaos going into this week. Bama losing seems almost beyond the realm of possibility, but there is a better than zero chance of a Clemson and Washington loss. In that scenario, it is hard to even imagine what would happen. If that happens, Florida scores the upset AND Wisconsin beats PSU, literally anything could happen including a playoff with no conference champions other than Oklahoma.
November 27th, 2016 at 1:25 PM ^
November 27th, 2016 at 1:31 PM ^
November 27th, 2016 at 1:56 PM ^
I think you mean 24-12
November 27th, 2016 at 1:39 PM ^
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November 27th, 2016 at 1:58 PM ^
A home loss in a rout to OSU and a "neytral" site loss to Houston?
I like Michigan's chances in a Michigan/Penn State/Oklahoma matchup with the committee...if Clemson or Washington loses (and I would prefer a Washington loss)
November 27th, 2016 at 3:58 PM ^
Oklahoma has very little chance. Because regardless of the possible results you will have:
Alabama
OSU
PSU or WI winner with 2 losses in a better conference/SOS
Clemson with 1-2 losses
Washington with 1-2 losses or Colorado with 2 losses. Even if Clemson and UW lose, they're more attractive 2 loss teams than Oklahoma. Or if you want to emphasize the conference championship aspect, then a 2 loss Colorado with wins over WSU, Utah and Washington is more deserving than Oklahoma.
You just can't get stomped at home by 3 TDs and lose convincingly to a non-Power 5 school and then come back and say you're one of the 4 best teams because you beat a collection of other terrible Big 12 teams. But that's just my opinion.
November 30th, 2016 at 12:08 PM ^
I agree with you, I was just curious. Personally, I think playoff teams should have some semblance of a defense because they made OSU's quarterback, who, from a pure passing standpoint, is average at best, look like Cam Newton.
November 27th, 2016 at 1:56 PM ^
Bama and Ohio State are locks. There is zero chance an 11-1 Ohio State team with 4 top 10 wins(two of them blowouts) gets left out. Bama could lose next week and still make the playoffs.
Clemson wins and they're in. Washington wins and they're in.
Clemson or Washington lose and the winner of the BTCG is in.
Clemson and Washington both lose and the winner of the BTG is in along with Oklahoma.
Now, Clemson, Washington, and Oklahoma lose next week and things get interesting. Colorado or USC or OK State? Would they take us to make it 3 Big Ten teams in the Playoffs? So next week we have some rooting interests.
November 27th, 2016 at 4:36 PM ^
Wait... OSU has 4 top 10 wins with two being blowouts?
- Blowout vs Oklahoma
- Beat Wisconsin in OT
- Lost to PSU
- Beat Michigan in 2OT
Or are you counting Nebraska because they were #10 at the time? And if so, why are you including Oklahoma? They were #14 in week 3, having already lost to Houston.
November 27th, 2016 at 4:47 PM ^
They beat then top 10 Nebraska by 59 points.
Their road win at Oklahoma was more impressive though.
November 27th, 2016 at 7:12 PM ^
Nebraska does not count as a top 10 win. It doesn't matter what they were ranked at the time, but only how they finish. Notre Dame was a top 10 team in preseason, yet no one counts Texas' win over them as anything significant now.
November 27th, 2016 at 2:02 PM ^
just got a bump regarding our loss to Iowa..They are now a RANKED team...So we have a last second FG loss on the road against a ranked team and a Double OT loss on the road to the #2 team a game we controlled...If the object is to get the Best 4 teams How can u not include Michigan? with 3 top TEN wins and if Colorado beats Wash..that knocks Wash out and we would have wins over the BIG and PAC champions...Name me ONE school with a better overall resume after Alabama and perhaps Olieo St?...WHO? who has Clemson beat other than a 3 loss Louisville? How many Top 10 wins do they have? Wisconsin? beat them? Penn St? Beat them Colorado? Beat them OK? got torunced by OSU and 3 loss Houston?
Who else?
November 27th, 2016 at 2:13 PM ^
November 27th, 2016 at 2:19 PM ^
November 27th, 2016 at 2:25 PM ^
November 27th, 2016 at 3:56 PM ^
Would get their ass kicked by Bama. They struggled beating Michigan State, got beat by Penn State, We all seen the Michigan Game. Struggled against Northwestern. Who seriously believes Ohio St. is a top 4 team? I don't. They needed help from officating to get past Michigan in their house.
Of course, I wouldn't mind seeing Bama kick their ass!
November 27th, 2016 at 7:47 PM ^
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November 27th, 2016 at 2:45 PM ^
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November 27th, 2016 at 3:43 PM ^
Your question was rhetorical but I'll answer it anyway. The purpose of a conference championship game is to have a primetime TV game between two good teams on a weekend with few games being played while interest is high. Thereby generating significant revenue for television networks, the B1G and in turn, the schools. You didn't really think it was about anything but money did you?
November 27th, 2016 at 4:40 PM ^
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November 27th, 2016 at 2:43 PM ^
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November 27th, 2016 at 2:52 PM ^
Some of these predictions make zero sense. There's no possible way that Ohio State gets left out of the playoff. They're No. 2 already and just beat No. 3. This is a done deal, folks.
The only debate is which conference champs other than Alabama get in. It'll be interesting if Clemson and Washington both win to see who gets left out between those 2 and the winner of Penn State-Wisconsin. I'd put Wisconsin as 50-50 to get in over Washington, but Penn State's odds would be low. I think they get left out, and there will be screaming from Happy Valley about it, somewhat rightfully so.
Obviously, if just one of Clemson and Washington should lose, the committee's job will be easy, regardless of the noise that the Big 12 and the ACC/Pac 12 loser will make. What would be very interesting is if Clemson, Washington AND Oklahoma all lose. Does the committee have the guts to put 3 Big Ten teams in the final 4, given that the next best team would be Colorado, which everyone knows Michigan pasted early in the season? Highly improbable that 3 teams from the same conference would go to the semi-finals, as there would be a revolt everywhere else in the country. Oklahoma State probably doesn't have the resume to get into the top 4 either, even with a win over Oklahoma in that ultimate chaos scenario. Would be fun to see it, though, to watch the committee squirm. Imagine a final 4 of Alabama, Ohio State, Big Ten champ and Colorado -- Michigan beat 2 of the 4 and lost to a third in a controversial 2OT finish. I think Harbaugh's head, and MGoBlog, will explode if it happens....
November 27th, 2016 at 3:49 PM ^
There's no way Clemson (if they win their CCG) is getting left out in favor of a 2 loss B1G champ or UW. Clemson has too much national respect after their success the last few years. The question is PSU/WI or UW. It'll be interesting to see. The PAC 10 was left out last year too (as they should have been) but those politics do play a factor in this. I think they would be pretty unhappy if a 1 loss PAC 10 champ that was #4 in this next to last poll, as UW almost certainly will be, is then jumped by a 2 loss team from another conference that beats another 10-2 loss team while UW is racking up a win over a 10-2 CO team themselves.
November 27th, 2016 at 4:02 PM ^
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November 27th, 2016 at 2:54 PM ^
I thought the purpose of the new playoff system was to select the best 4 teams to play and the the selection committee would look at a vairety of variables to determine who the 4 teams should be, with Conference Champions being one of the variables.
But, remember, Conference Championships are just 1 of the many variables that the committee looks at and they cannot be the end all be all; A Confernece Championship cannot exist in a vacum. You have to look at the strength of that conference, the strength of the divisions in that conference, extenuating circumtances, etc...Just because you won the conference doesn't mean you are the best team in that conference. Perfect example is the SEC East and the Big Ten West. Those are weaker divisions compared to their coutner parts...Just because they may luck out and win 1 game more, means they are the best team...Hell no....,
By using Conference Champions in a vacum, are you going to then tell me that should Florida and Virgina Tech and USC win next week, that they should make the College Playoffs? I don't think so...
The committee needs to pick the 4 best teams period...IMO, if every favored team won next week then that should be:
- Alabama
- Ohio State
- Washington
- Clemson
Now, should we have total chaos and say Washington and Clemson both lose....Then I believe the best 4 teams would be:
- Alabama (win or lose, I think it makes no difference, they are that good)
- Ohio State
- Michigan
- Wisconsin or Winner of Bedlam (Okie State/Ou)
If 3 of the 4 best teams happen to be Big Ten Teams, then so be it, that is what the committee is there to do. If the SEC was having a good year (lets be honest the conference is not good this year outside of Alabama) they would be clamoring for the same thing..
November 27th, 2016 at 3:24 PM ^
November 27th, 2016 at 3:46 PM ^
If Penn St beats Wisconsin next week, why should OSU go ahead of them. That's what doesn't make sense to me. That would mean the CFP would throw away a head-to-head win and conference championship in favor of a team that looks better on paper (OSU). What I am arguing is that it would be completely justified if the committee chose a 11-2 (8-1), B1G Champion Penn St with a win over OSU.
November 27th, 2016 at 4:04 PM ^
But the part you don't mention is the rest. Factor in the non-conference where PSU lost to Pitt and OSU won @OK. Also, PSU did not play 9-3 Nebraska or 10-2 Wisconsin in conference while OSU beat both. Well, the Wisconsin win is offset is PSU beats WI on a neutral field but even then you still have dominating wins against Nebraska and Oklahoma outside of their common opponents and PSU with a loss to Pitt. To me, that more than offsets the head to head advantage and CCG title.
That said, I can definitely see a committee taking that perspective in terms of precedent and all so what you say might happen. But it would be the wrong call.
November 27th, 2016 at 4:21 PM ^
To that I'd say Penn St lost to a Pitt team (that also beat Clemson and is ranked #24 in the AP poll) on the road by 3 points. PSU didn't play Nebraska, but they did play Iowa and beat them soundly. Iowa just shellacked Nebraska this week 40-10 and is now ranked #22. Meanwhile, Nebraska is ranked #23. Yeah they didn't play Wisconsin during the regular season but they will have a chance to play them this week. Taking all of that into account plus Penn St's head-to-head win over OSU, that should give them the edge should they win the conference championship game. Will it happen? I don't know, but I think that's what should happen or the significance of a head-to-head win, division title, and conference championship is totally diminished. Is OSU the better team on paper? Sure. But Penn St beat them this year and would have a conference championship.
November 27th, 2016 at 4:44 PM ^
Some good points. I'd still pick OSU because of the extra loss. Pitt may be solid, but it's way way harder to be a 1 loss team than a 2 loss team so that loss is huge in my assessment. But it's an intriguing question of what the committee cares about.
I guess the one other thing, and I doubt that the committee cares about this, is that I wouldn't put that much emphasis on the head to head. If you watched that game, OSU outplayed PSU on a play to play basis. But a few special teams breaks carried the day. Which is ok, that's how it goes sometimes, but it's more reflective of random weirdness than of PSU being a better team or outplaying OSU. No sustainable edge in performance for PSU. I'd be more inclined to give the edge to PSU if they soundly outplayed OSU. Plus a 3 point win is basically just home field advantage. Again, just my opinion.