B1G season half done: Bubble watch time
As someone who has spent way too much time looking at the blog since the start of December, its hard not to notice the lack of bubble talk. This team is battered and bruised, and we are no doubt outside looking in on the bubble. But we're 6-3 in the B1G, and there are signs of hope. Time to start thinking post season.
SI posted this today:
"Michigan (12-8, RPI: 63, SOS: 24) -- The Wolverines just missed what would have been a huge coup, falling to Wisconsin in overtime on Saturday in Ann Arbor. They’re still without a top-50 win, though they are 6-6 against the top 100. Still, that’s not going to get it done, especially with losses to NJIT and Eastern Michigan on the resume. The Wolverines have six more games this season against teams likely to make the tournament. They probably need to win four of those to have a chance."
http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2015/01/27/bubble-watch-big-12-kan…
Hard to argue there. Our remaining schedule:
| Sun., Feb. 1 |
at Michigan State *  |
East Lansing, Mich. | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| Thu., Feb. 5 |
vs. Iowa * |
Crisler Center | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| Sun., Feb. 8 |
at Indiana * |
Bloomington, Ind. | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| Thu., Feb. 12 |
at Illinois * |
Champaign, Ill. | 8:00 p.m. CT |
| Tue., Feb. 17 |
vs. Michigan State * |
Crisler Center | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| Sun., Feb. 22 |
vs. Ohio State * |
Crisler Center | 1 or 3/5:15 p.m ET |
| Sat., Feb. 28 |
at Maryland * |
College Park, Md. | TBA |
| Tue., Mar. 3 |
at Northwestern * |
Evanston, Ill. | 8:00 p.m. CT |
| Sat., Mar. 7 |
vs. Rutgers * |
Crisler Center | Noon or 2:15 p.m. ET |
Personally, I think 11 wins in the B1G, regardless of against whom, gets us an invite. That means finishing 5-4. I see 6 games there where I think we have a good shot at getting a win.
January 27th, 2015 at 9:35 PM ^
January 27th, 2015 at 9:52 PM ^
January 27th, 2015 at 11:39 PM ^
and we still lack a Top 50 win. We might get a couple of ~20ish wins in a 5-4 finish to 11-7 regular season B1G. I don't think that's going to do it.
Most 11-7 B1G teams don't lose to NJIT & Eastern Michigan.
I think we need to finish 6-3 to get to 18-11, and then one BTT win would put us at 19-12.
January 27th, 2015 at 9:35 PM ^
I see Maryland and Indiana as the most likely losses so we need to beat Ohio, iowa and MSU at home which I think we can do. Winning at the Breslin would certainly help but I think we can get in without winning there. NJIT and EMU will kill us on selection sunday.
January 27th, 2015 at 10:16 PM ^
January 27th, 2015 at 9:37 PM ^
January 27th, 2015 at 9:39 PM ^
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January 27th, 2015 at 9:43 PM ^
11 wins would mean atleast 2 wins against likely tourney teams. Although, Michigan beating sparty could also knock sparty off the bubble potentially. I'd rather us get in than sparty not get in, but if it broke that way it wouldn't be a bad consolation prize.
January 27th, 2015 at 9:45 PM ^
January 27th, 2015 at 11:57 PM ^
Mich is #78 (up from the 90s w/ tonight's win)
Conversely, we've lost to
#4 @Arizona (blowout)
#6 Wiscy (OT)
#7 Villanova (close)
#21 @tOSU (blowout)
#23 SMU (competitive)
#75 @Purdue (competitive)
#118 EMU
#189 NJIT
That's not awe-inspiring, and further, no one remaining on our regular season schedule is higher than #21.
January 28th, 2015 at 6:38 AM ^
I don't believe the commitee looks at Eff. Ratings at all. They look at RPI and SOS ratings
January 28th, 2015 at 10:13 AM ^
but IMO, it's a lot more correlated with the "eye test" and what is likely to happen from here on out.
If we *happen* to get on the bubble, no committee member is going to be thinking "wow, they beat Syracuse and Oregon".
We're not even listed "On the Bubble" in Joe Lunardi's Bracketology and I really doubt a 5-4 B1G regular season finish is going to put us on there.
January 27th, 2015 at 9:41 PM ^
I don't think we have much chance of making the tournament, but I'm still very much enjoying seeing young players like Dawkins and MAAR develop. If Chatman can just figure it out we could have something next year.
January 27th, 2015 at 11:58 PM ^
I think if we finish 6-3 in the B1G regular season and win one BTT game we'll be on the bubble at 19-12.
January 27th, 2015 at 9:42 PM ^
January 27th, 2015 at 9:50 PM ^
January 28th, 2015 at 12:59 PM ^
are going to be the killer. If they had beaten Eastern and NJIT, they'd be 15-6. 11-7 in the conference would have them at 20-10 heading into the BTT and at worst definitely in the discussion for a bid.
January 27th, 2015 at 9:51 PM ^
MAAR is going to be really good. To me this season is a bit of a wash, but it is fun to watch these young freshman get better every game. Makes me excited to watch them in the coming years as it doesn't look like many of these kids will jump to the NBA or have the ability to in the next year, but will be a really good team for the next several years. Especially with Duncan being eligible next year to help out.
January 27th, 2015 at 9:56 PM ^
Man how I would love watching this team beat MSu on their own floor! If we manage to make the tourny this year, then Beilein has got to be one of the top 3 coaches in the NCAA. I think that could possibly be safe to say?
January 27th, 2015 at 10:04 PM ^
You also have to factor in B1G Tournament games.
2011 Quarterfinals against Illinois with that comeback sealed the deal.
January 27th, 2015 at 10:09 PM ^
As a minor note, we talked a bit about this in my podcast (well, the one I am getting off the ground) last week - a 12-16 seed in the tournament going back a decade or so has anything from 16-20 wins depending on the overal quality of the field that year. An 11-7 conference record stands a realizable chance if you can pick off some top conference teams, although a deep run in the tournament might be a different discussion obviously, at least by the numbers.
January 27th, 2015 at 10:13 PM ^
That said, a lot of good news out tonight. This was a really solid win, and on national tv, and to go with it:
-Eastern Michigan destroyed Ohio, which will help with RPI;
-George Washington got blown out by VCU, hurting a bubble team;
-Kansas State loss, hurting another bubble team.
One thing to note is that a number of our wins (Purdue, Penn St., Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Rutgers) are against teams hovering around 100 in the RPI, so root hard for those teams when they're playing anybody other than Michigan to boost the "Record Against RPI Top 100" stat; if Syracuse could sneak into the top 50, that'd also be a huge lift.
January 27th, 2015 at 10:19 PM ^
but 11-7 in the B1G with home court losses to NJIT and EMU does not a tourney resume make. Unless we beat sparty twice Indy and OSU but then we would lose to Rutgers or NW so I'm thinking 13 is what we need. Maaaaaaybe 12.
January 27th, 2015 at 10:28 PM ^
January 27th, 2015 at 11:32 PM ^
If we're 12-6 in the Big Ten when it's all done, they're not leaving us out of the NCAA's. That's probably a 4th place finish in the conference. Stop being silly.
January 28th, 2015 at 12:28 PM ^
raw win total competition matters a lot to the committee. Wins against RU and NW do little for us but a loss to either is nearly fatal. A win over either Indiana or MD would be hugely helpful but I doubt it. Basically that leaves OSU as another solid win. Sparty and Iowa are both bubble teams as well. IF this was the B1G of the last three seasons I would definitely say 11-7 would be enough. This B1G requires more wins from us.
January 29th, 2015 at 9:51 AM ^
in conference and out-of-conference.
If you were to add NJIT and EMU to our B1G record, it would be 11-9. Meh.
January 27th, 2015 at 10:19 PM ^
January 27th, 2015 at 10:44 PM ^
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January 28th, 2015 at 3:58 AM ^
14 is the dumbest number...
January 27th, 2015 at 10:23 PM ^
11 wins might do it, but I think to really feel safe we need a big win, preferably one over Maryland or Indiana. Unfortunately both those games are on the road so it doesn't look likely. Wisconsin was the best chance we probably had remaining to get a statement win. Which sucks because all things considered we played very well that game, just couldn't get the win.
January 27th, 2015 at 10:53 PM ^
For how young this team is and how bad earlier stretches were, I'd be quite satisfied with a good seed in the NIT. A good step forward for a young team with a lot of promise
January 27th, 2015 at 10:52 PM ^
This is a fun team to watch and MASSIVELY overachieving given their actual slew of injuries (looking at you Izzo) and the amount of talent that's left but let's be real here guys. The losses to LJIT & Eastern are two boat anchors on our RPI and with our remaining schedule it's gonna be almost impossible to overcome them. Had we beaten Villinova & Wisky we'd be ok but we didnt and there's nothing, absolutely nothing, to be ashamed of.
I think we'll finish up either 16-12 or 17-11 pre tournament and then get one win there before bowing out leaving us either 17-13 or 18-12 with a pretty shaky resume. Go to the NIT and win it and get the bodies healthy for next year.
January 27th, 2015 at 11:18 PM ^
Some of you guys overestimate the bubble now that the tournament is 68 teams. Iowa was in the play-in game last year at 9-10 in the Big Ten on a huge slide to end the season with their best wins being over us at home and OSU on the road (the latest of which was on February 8). Granted, the conference was better and they had nothing close to our two nonconference disasters, but I think 11-7 and one BTT win gets it done. The committee tends to reward hot teams, the eye test matters (i.e. us giving top teams all they can handle in losses and proving that we're a completely different team than in December), and it never hurts to have a big name either.
January 28th, 2015 at 1:11 PM ^
probably isn't a very good comparison. At this time last last year Iowa was ranked 10th in the country and probably considered a lock for the tourney. They remained in the Top 25 all the way through the regular season.
UM is the opposite of Iowa. While Iowa was in the tourney and hoping not to fall out, UM is out of the tourney and hoping to get in.
January 27th, 2015 at 11:06 PM ^
January 27th, 2015 at 11:11 PM ^
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January 27th, 2015 at 11:35 PM ^
January 28th, 2015 at 12:03 AM ^
I much rather play in the Big Dance.
January 27th, 2015 at 11:49 PM ^
Michigan is sitting 4th in the conference, so won't play until day 3 of the 5-day tournament. If a tournament win is going to be good for being on the right side of the bubble, is it better to be seeded 5th thru 10th and potentially playing an easier opponent on day 2, instead of 4th? The 6th seed will play the winner of #11 and #14 (currently Minnesota and Northwestern just to use an example).
January 28th, 2015 at 5:38 AM ^
January 28th, 2015 at 11:27 AM ^
I haven't seen or heard anything about him chirping about playing time, but if he is, he needs to watch a bunch of game film on Bielfeldt and maybe he'll get clued in about what's needed in terms of effort, aggression, and get-after-it. Bielfeldt is earning his playing time.
January 28th, 2015 at 6:51 AM ^
January 28th, 2015 at 8:50 AM ^
January 28th, 2015 at 8:59 AM ^
Had we beaten Wisconsin, I think we'd have a decent shot as a bubble team, but we just don't have that many more chances to prove ourselves against top teams. Beating Wisconsin would've been huge for our chances, but it just wasn't meant to be. For that reason, coupled with losing to NJIT and EMU, we're on the outside looking in.
I think we could make the NIT, but unless we go on a tear and only drop 2-3 more games, I don't envision us making the tournament. Not impossible, but just not likely. Still have to go to MSU, Maryland, Illinois, and Indiana. We'll be lucky to win 1-2 of those games.
January 28th, 2015 at 9:01 AM ^
I remember on a MGoBlog Roundtable podcast from about a month ago Craig Ross saying that we'd rue the day we let the 'Nova game slip away. At the time I thought that was insane but I certainly get it now.