ATTN: Jamimac, WTF is with the Iowa/MSU line?
How is it that Iowa, at 7-0 with tough road wins over PSU and Wisconsin, is a dog (well according to some lines now a push, but still) to MSU? You'd think after that Wisconsin game, where they were a dog and systematically took apart the Badgers in the second half, that the oddsmakers would ponder, "Hmmm, perhaps Iowa is pretty good?" Or maybe not, I don't know. That is why I pose this question to you (or any other savvy gamblers).
In conclusion: huh?
October 21st, 2009 at 11:27 AM ^
I've been looking for it all morning but can't find it on the blogroll here; probably just looking in the wrong place.
October 21st, 2009 at 11:29 AM ^
Now with new, spiffy design.
October 21st, 2009 at 11:35 AM ^
"gambling" is the crucial google word I guess. I kept finding some motocross dude.
October 21st, 2009 at 11:33 AM ^
The line swang a bit over the week. Iowa started as the favorite, but lost it. I think with all the exposure Iowa got with the BCS standings lead to some people questioning whether they can take the spotlight.
October 21st, 2009 at 11:34 AM ^
Uh, betting lines are set to get exactly half of the bettors to bet on each team. Therefore, the bookies can't lose. They have little to do with the actual point differential expected based on the quality of each team playing.
October 21st, 2009 at 11:42 AM ^
I'm not insinuating any funny business in regards to the spread. I'm simply confused at how Iowa is/was an underdog to MSU. According to Yahoo CFB Pick'em, the line was at MSU -2 on Monday and moved to even on Tuesday. Not sure what other sites have.
I suppose I could have just waited until Jamie's B10 picks diary (or checked out Just Cover), but hey, I'm impatient.
October 21st, 2009 at 11:49 AM ^
Let's say the line starts at MSU -2. But, more bets (in $ value) are still going to MSU. How do you get folks to bet on Iowa? You change the line to even.
If folks still keep betting on MSU, you keep changing the line.
October 21st, 2009 at 11:55 AM ^
At any rate I think MSU is in for a long day against Iowa.
October 21st, 2009 at 11:56 AM ^
If everyone is betting on MSU -2 they wouldn't move the line to even to get Iowa bets. Iowa would have to catch more points right?
October 21st, 2009 at 12:06 PM ^
This is correct, anyone betting on MSU despite giving two points will obviously continue to bet on MSU at even. The way to change the balance when money is coming in on a favorite is to make them a bigger favorite.
October 21st, 2009 at 12:09 PM ^
Yeah, I got it back-ass-wards. Thanks.
October 21st, 2009 at 12:10 PM ^
If more people are taking MSU -2, then they will move the line higher (ie. -2.5).
OP's dismay at MSU getting points is shared with people actually placing bets bc they are all taking Iowa +2. This heavy action has forced odds makers to shift the line to even, and I would assume by gametime Iowa will be giving points. This shows that people believe Iowa is the better team
Think of it this way: if the UM-Del. St. line was UM -5, everyone and their mother would take that line bc they were sure UM would win by more than 5. The odds makers would be forced to move it up (substantially). OTOH, if the line was UM -100, everyone would take DSU +100 bc they know it's almost impossible for a team to lose by that much. So the bookies would have to move the line down.
October 21st, 2009 at 11:42 AM ^
I was surprised that Iowa was not a road favorite.
Hawkeyes have always been a solid investment. Gamblers love them.
They have the second longest winning streak in the country. They won at Penn State. They make the other team's QBs look really really bad, Cousins will have trouble.
I am liking Iowa a lot. Still kicking myself that I changed my mind on the Iowa/Wisco game last weekend. Not making that mistake again.
October 21st, 2009 at 12:17 PM ^
God I hope I'm wrong. That would make the Spartoons even more insufferable than usual, and would really grease their way for a share of the conference title. Ugh.
October 21st, 2009 at 12:22 PM ^
Yeah, I feel the same way. If they win this weekend and somehow manage to take down Penn Schtate, they'll be on their way to Pasadena. And I'll be crying myself to sleep.
October 21st, 2009 at 9:13 PM ^
That's making the bold assumption that they don't Sparty No! a game away to Purdue, Minnesota or one of their other remaining opponents.
October 21st, 2009 at 12:31 PM ^
I would normally agree with this sentiment, but this Iowa team is a really bad match-up for MSU. Iowa's weakness is stopping the run on defense, but MSU really cannot exploit that. MSU's strength is passing, which plays right into Iowa's defensive wheelhouse. I think it will be a close game, but I still think it is good money to bet on Iowa to win that game. Now, MSU vs. PSU will be a different story.
October 21st, 2009 at 1:14 PM ^
The Spartiest thing to do is to beat a top ten team this week, go into a tailspin against Minny, Western, and Purdue, and then beat Penn State to become bowl eligible.
So I wouldn't be surprised if they did just that.
October 21st, 2009 at 12:40 PM ^
UHHH... Iowa was an underdog to Wisconsin last week: +2. I don't see how it is shocking to see that they are again underdogs to MSU.
The general public doesn't believe in Iowa for some reason, and that is why they are underdogs.
October 21st, 2009 at 1:13 PM ^
Wins at home over Northern Iowa and Arkansas St by 1 and 3 pts.
Last week, fell behind at Wiscy 0-10 before coming back to win 20-10.
They're pretty good, but not great; not consistent enough at QB and RB. Game at MSU could go either way.
October 21st, 2009 at 1:15 PM ^
After Iowa was a dog against Wisconsin and dominated them (check the stats - only 230 yards), I figured the oddsmakers would wise up and give them the benefit of the doubt in a similar situation. Iowa is a good team, not a great team, but certainly good enough to win the B10 and beat decent-to-good B10 teams on the road.
October 23rd, 2009 at 2:13 PM ^
I mean, we were 3.5 point underdogs to MSU when we were undefeated and they had all of one win.
Sometimes the spread doesn't need to make sense in order for it to be correct. Trap games are everywhere in college football, and I tend to stay away from games like this one.
But I totally agree with what you said, and because I can't answer the question of why the spread is the way it is for this game is why I will stay away.