ATTN: Jamimac, WTF is with the Iowa/MSU line?

Submitted by MH20 on

How is it that Iowa, at 7-0 with tough road wins over PSU and Wisconsin, is a dog (well according to some lines now a push, but still) to MSU? You'd think after that Wisconsin game, where they were a dog and systematically took apart the Badgers in the second half, that the oddsmakers would ponder, "Hmmm, perhaps Iowa is pretty good?" Or maybe not, I don't know. That is why I pose this question to you (or any other savvy gamblers).

In conclusion: huh?

formerlyanonymous

October 21st, 2009 at 11:33 AM ^

The line swang a bit over the week. Iowa started as the favorite, but lost it. I think with all the exposure Iowa got with the BCS standings lead to some people questioning whether they can take the spotlight.

Enjoy Life

October 21st, 2009 at 11:34 AM ^

Uh, betting lines are set to get exactly half of the bettors to bet on each team. Therefore, the bookies can't lose. They have little to do with the actual point differential expected based on the quality of each team playing.

MH20

October 21st, 2009 at 11:42 AM ^

I'm not insinuating any funny business in regards to the spread. I'm simply confused at how Iowa is/was an underdog to MSU. According to Yahoo CFB Pick'em, the line was at MSU -2 on Monday and moved to even on Tuesday. Not sure what other sites have.

I suppose I could have just waited until Jamie's B10 picks diary (or checked out Just Cover), but hey, I'm impatient.

BlueBulls

October 21st, 2009 at 12:10 PM ^

If more people are taking MSU -2, then they will move the line higher (ie. -2.5).

OP's dismay at MSU getting points is shared with people actually placing bets bc they are all taking Iowa +2. This heavy action has forced odds makers to shift the line to even, and I would assume by gametime Iowa will be giving points. This shows that people believe Iowa is the better team

Think of it this way: if the UM-Del. St. line was UM -5, everyone and their mother would take that line bc they were sure UM would win by more than 5. The odds makers would be forced to move it up (substantially). OTOH, if the line was UM -100, everyone would take DSU +100 bc they know it's almost impossible for a team to lose by that much. So the bookies would have to move the line down.

jamiemac

October 21st, 2009 at 11:42 AM ^

I was surprised that Iowa was not a road favorite.

Hawkeyes have always been a solid investment. Gamblers love them.

They have the second longest winning streak in the country. They won at Penn State. They make the other team's QBs look really really bad, Cousins will have trouble.

I am liking Iowa a lot. Still kicking myself that I changed my mind on the Iowa/Wisco game last weekend. Not making that mistake again.

Don

October 21st, 2009 at 12:17 PM ^

God I hope I'm wrong. That would make the Spartoons even more insufferable than usual, and would really grease their way for a share of the conference title. Ugh.

bronxblue

October 21st, 2009 at 12:31 PM ^

I would normally agree with this sentiment, but this Iowa team is a really bad match-up for MSU. Iowa's weakness is stopping the run on defense, but MSU really cannot exploit that. MSU's strength is passing, which plays right into Iowa's defensive wheelhouse. I think it will be a close game, but I still think it is good money to bet on Iowa to win that game. Now, MSU vs. PSU will be a different story.

Beavis

October 21st, 2009 at 12:40 PM ^

UHHH... Iowa was an underdog to Wisconsin last week: +2. I don't see how it is shocking to see that they are again underdogs to MSU.

The general public doesn't believe in Iowa for some reason, and that is why they are underdogs.

Engin77

October 21st, 2009 at 1:13 PM ^

Wins at home over Northern Iowa and Arkansas St by 1 and 3 pts.
Last week, fell behind at Wiscy 0-10 before coming back to win 20-10.
They're pretty good, but not great; not consistent enough at QB and RB. Game at MSU could go either way.

MH20

October 21st, 2009 at 1:15 PM ^

After Iowa was a dog against Wisconsin and dominated them (check the stats - only 230 yards), I figured the oddsmakers would wise up and give them the benefit of the doubt in a similar situation. Iowa is a good team, not a great team, but certainly good enough to win the B10 and beat decent-to-good B10 teams on the road.

Beavis

October 23rd, 2009 at 2:13 PM ^

I mean, we were 3.5 point underdogs to MSU when we were undefeated and they had all of one win.

Sometimes the spread doesn't need to make sense in order for it to be correct. Trap games are everywhere in college football, and I tend to stay away from games like this one.

But I totally agree with what you said, and because I can't answer the question of why the spread is the way it is for this game is why I will stay away.