Athlon Picks UM 2nd in West, 10-2 Record
Athlon has updated their season projections midway through the season. Here are the highlights:
Coach of the Year – Brady Hoke, Michigan It’s a close call between Hoke and Wisconsin’s Bret Bielema. Hoke suffered his first defeat of the season last week against Michigan State, but has made all of the right moves so far during his short time in Ann Arbor. The offense has remained potent behind quarterback Denard Robinson, while the defense has shown big improvement under Hoke and coordinator Greg Mattison. The Wolverines are still in the hunt for the Big Ten West Division title, and are setup to return back into the top 10-15 teams in college football with Hoke’s success on the recruiting trail.
What Athlon Sports got wrong – With a new coach and schemes on both sides of the ball, it was hard to project where Michigan fit into the Big Ten race in the preseason. We had the Wolverines finishing 8-4 and fourth in theLegendsWest Division, and it appears they will easily outperform that record.
East
1. Wisconsin 12-0, 8-0
2. Penn State 8-4, 5-3
3. Ohio State 7-5, 4-4
4. Illinois 8-4, 4-4
5. Purdue 4-8, 2-6
6. Indiana 1-11, 0-8
West
1. Michigan State 10-2, 7-1
2. Michigan 10-2, 6-2
3. Nebraska 9-3, 5-3
4. Iowa 8-4, 5-3
5. Northwestern 5-7, 2-6
6. Minnesota 1-11, 0-8
Big Ten Championship: Michigan State vs. Wisconsin
Full article is here.
Thoughts?
I'm not sure what to gather from this other than they only having us lose 1 more game. Pretty interesting, and if a 10-2 season does come to fruition, we really can't be disappointed. I don't think that's BCS-worthy this year (booo!) but that's why we play the entire 2nd half. They didn't seem to take Michigan's loss to MSU too badly (and they have us above Nebraska).
October 22nd, 2011 at 12:15 PM ^
We'd be in the BCS at 10-2. Historically, they like to take the top finisher not in the conference championship for a second BCS team, and the Michigan name helps. Whether we can compete once we get there is another question, however.
October 22nd, 2011 at 12:17 PM ^
That's true, I was just unsure because it seems as if there will be quite a few teams for the picking come the end of the season.
October 22nd, 2011 at 12:20 PM ^
Competition will depend entirely on matchup. This year's Michigan team could certainly compete with some previous BCS teams, especially considering (hoping) Michigan would avoid the auto bid because Wisconsin misses out on the MNC.
October 22nd, 2011 at 12:54 PM ^
Right now we'd have to be favored against the BE champion, GT and Clemson are both scary but I don't think they would kill us, the loser of LSU/Alabama would have me wishing the Mayans were off by a year, Oklahoma and OSU are almost that bad. I doubt we'd end up playing a Pac team, but Stanford and Oregon seem more like GT and Clemson than the certain death brought on from the SEC's second team. It looks like Boise will be in as well. I think we'd lose that game, but I have no idea by how much or how we stack up with them. So if it looks like:
MNC: A/LSU v Oklahoma
Rose: Wisconsin v Stanford
Sugar: at-large v at-large
Orange: Clemson v at-large
Fiesta: at-large v at-large
The Fiesta would get the A/LSU loser. The Orange Bowl would get stuck with either the BE champion or Boise, since they pick last and the Sugar and Fiesta get to pick to replace BCS title teams, so that leaves a Fiesta spot against certain death or a Sugar Bowl bid against Boise or BE.
October 22nd, 2011 at 12:44 PM ^
Here's my question: does the loser of the BTCG go to the Rose Bowl? If Wisco wins out, I think there's more than a great chance they get picked at large for Fiesta, Orange, Sugar. Then who goes to the Rose Bowl?
October 22nd, 2011 at 12:47 PM ^
The BTCG winner is an auto-bid to the Rose Bowl (a BCS spot isn't guaranteed for the loser if Wisconsin goes to the title game).
If Wisconsin wins out they'll be in either the BCS title game or the Rose.
October 22nd, 2011 at 1:01 PM ^
I would absolutely LOVE it if Sparty made the BTCG only to get crushd by Wisconsin and then we got a BCS bowl birth while they didn't. The Sparty anger would be palpable.
October 22nd, 2011 at 1:36 PM ^
I'd just snicker in that scenario. I'd like it more if we went to the BTCG over them.
October 22nd, 2011 at 3:03 PM ^
I would hate that scenario. Thinking to how Michigan got jobbed years ago in not going to the Rose Bowl because of other teams, I wouldn't want to see that happen to anyone, even State. I think the MSU beat us fair and square. Even though they played dirty, and even though the refs messed up, I still think that MSU won that game. I also see MSU & Michigan both tanking vs. Wisconsin (i.e., whoever makes it to the championship game.) As such, even if State loses to Wisconsin twice, I think they deserve a 2nd BCS game (after Wisconsin) more than Michigan would.
While I dislike State, my focus is on Michigan, and Michigan playing well (rather than focusing on State, and what happens to them.)
October 22nd, 2011 at 12:24 PM ^
...given the way we performed last week plus our remaining schedule.
Most importantly, I hope the team only cares about playing well against Purdue next Saturday.
October 22nd, 2011 at 12:31 PM ^
Looks like they are assuming both Sparty and we beat Nebraska. That is a big assumption, especially since we get the Huskers at home and Sparty plays them on the road next week (i.e., two weeks after playing us and one week after playing Wisky). Assuming Wisconsin beats Sparty tonight, if Nebraska can knock off Sparty in Lincoln we will have our own fate in our hands w.r.t. at least making the BTCG.
October 22nd, 2011 at 12:44 PM ^
Ohio? Illinois? I think 10-2 is a stretch, but it may get us into a BCS game, even over 10-3 MSU (oh how they would hate us for that).
October 22nd, 2011 at 1:15 PM ^
October 22nd, 2011 at 1:30 PM ^
No at-large teams will get in with 3 losses, but we can always count on the big east champ to drag along their 4 losses to the party.
I'm looking at you this year, West Virginia!
October 22nd, 2011 at 1:03 PM ^
is very optimistic. too many tough games left on the schedule. one can hope though. i would be very happy with 9-3.
October 22nd, 2011 at 1:37 PM ^
I see one to two more wins for UM this season. Purdue will be one and then either Ill or Iowa for the second win.
October 22nd, 2011 at 2:14 PM ^
Purdue is looking more difficult, but still like a probable win. Iowa looks like a probable win. Illinois looks more and more like a probable win. Nebraska and OSU will be difficult but I think we will probably pull one of those out.
October 22nd, 2011 at 1:20 PM ^
October 22nd, 2011 at 1:54 PM ^
October 22nd, 2011 at 3:41 PM ^
They probably dont often get to chill at the mall on a Saturday in the fall.
October 22nd, 2011 at 1:26 PM ^
a pretty optimistic result. I see us going 9-3 with unfortunately losses to Nebraska and tOSU.
October 22nd, 2011 at 1:35 PM ^
October 22nd, 2011 at 1:52 PM ^
This is the most likely scenario to me. I had hoped for 8-4 at the beginning of the season with 7-5 being acceptable given the transition. I am very pleased that 9-3 looks likely.
October 22nd, 2011 at 1:41 PM ^
is quite optimistic.
Purdue, Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, and OSU are all beatable. Very much so, it's just we have to string consistent performances together. I like our chances at 10-2 even, but I am a "glass-half-full" kind of guy. A 9-3 season would be nothing to look down upon.
An 8-4 finish, despite preseason expectations, could prove disasterous at this point as it will serve to increase the "these teams are the same as Rich Rod's teams" chatter and more of Michigan's 2nd half of the season meltdowns. I just don't want another year of talking abou that.
October 22nd, 2011 at 7:41 PM ^
This chatter could be significantly reduced by a) winning 10+ games b) beating Ohio or c) winning our bowl game. Not accomplishing at least one of those would fire up an offseason of annoying Rich Rod comparisons, but I foresee us accomplishing all 3, so no worries!
October 22nd, 2011 at 1:48 PM ^
MSU is not going to go 7-1 in this division; nobody will. I think UM will finish with 9 wins; that Purdue game looks way scarier now given what they are doing to the Zookers, while that game in Champaign is starting to look less terrifying.
October 22nd, 2011 at 2:16 PM ^
If MSU wins either of their next 2 games, they will go 7-1.
October 22nd, 2011 at 6:51 PM ^
You are that confident that MSU will win at Iowa (Blew MSU out last year) and at NW? I would agree its likely they win but i would not be surprised to see MSU slip up in one of the road games.
October 24th, 2011 at 10:32 AM ^
My thoughts at the time were that beating Wisconsin means they should win any other games they play, leaving room for a slip up. Beating Nebraska means they can win on the road against good teams and I don't see them slipping up against bad teams like Iowa or Northwestern. Since they beat Wisconsin, I would have to say that 8-0 is probably more likely than 6-2.
October 22nd, 2011 at 2:06 PM ^
October 22nd, 2011 at 2:19 PM ^
October 22nd, 2011 at 2:37 PM ^
worry about actually going 10-2 before getting in a BCS bowl
October 22nd, 2011 at 3:00 PM ^
Have any of you seen our defense this season? I can't believe I'm seeing BCS and Michigan in the same sentence. Let's be realistic and root for a 9-3 season.
<br>
<br>Reality check, fellas.
October 22nd, 2011 at 6:59 PM ^
Its the # 10 scoring defense in the country at 15 points per game.
October 22nd, 2011 at 3:57 PM ^
4-1 the rest of the way is possible, of course, although I see 3-2 as more realistic. All of the games the rest of the way are not out of reach. It would be intriguing to actually match MSU's record at the top of the division and then get sent on to the championship game over them in some scenario just to see how many megatons worth of atomic blast the RCMB servers can simulate.
October 22nd, 2011 at 5:31 PM ^
we lose a couple of them. But we in with good chance against all but Wisconsin.
October 22nd, 2011 at 6:53 PM ^
I hope Michigan finds a way to pull it out, but what if Athlon is right? It would be sorta funny to see Sparty lose to Wiscy twice in one season.
October 22nd, 2011 at 9:54 PM ^
Wasnt msu 10-2 last season or 11-1 and missed bcs?