Athlon Michigan prediction: 7-5, Pinstripe Bowl
Well the first preview magazine of the year has come out. It's Athlon Sports' Big Ten preview. Peppers is on the cover-
They have Michigan going 7-5 and 4-4 in the East, finishing in 4th behind OSU, MSU and PSU (lol).
However, they have MSU at 6-2 and both Michigan and PSU at 4-4 in the B1G East leading me to believe that they have Michigan beating MSU at home but not beating PSU on the road.
They have Michigan playing 8-4 Virginia Tech in the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium.
Athlon projected B1G bowl games-
| Bowl | Game |
| Goodyear Cotton Bowl (CFP Semifinals) | OSU vs Auburn |
| Rose Bowl pres. by Northwestern Mutual | MSU vs USC |
| Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl | Wisconsin vs Tennessee |
| Outback Bowl | Nebraska vs Arkansas |
| National University Holiday Bowl | PSU vs Stanford |
| New Era Pinstripe Bowl | Michigan vs VT |
| Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl | Iowa vs Missouri |
| Foster Farms Bowl | Minnesota vs UCLA |
| Tucson Bowl | Illinois vs Boston Coll. |
| Austin Bowl | Indiana vs Miami |
| Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl | Maryland vs Air Force |
| Quick Lane Bowl | Northwestern vs Pitt |
I will be surprised if M wins only 7 games next season.
Kalis and Pipkins haven't left. There are rumors about Pipkins, but he is still on the team as far as I know
I hadn't heard anything about Kalis. Was there something I missed?
Yeah, the only oline I knew was likely to be done was Chris Fox going on a medical. I haven't seen anything about Kalis on here or Scout.
One of my UM grad coworkers seems pretty plugged into the program and donates money. He mentioned Kalis a couple weeks ago as someone he's heard is leaving. I justy took it for what it's worth.
Losing Pipkins is pretty much accepted by people here. Losing Kalis would be shocking to me and would mean we lost our 2 best O linemen in Miller and he from last season.
Hoke should have went 7-5 last season. He should have beaten Rutgers and Maryland! 7-5 would be the low point of Harbaugh's record. Great coaching alone will get us 1 or 2 more wins. Having a veteran QB will help a lot. Even if Morris wins the starting slot. I think the D will play much better. The O-line should be improved and as a result, so should the running game. The only question mark will be QB but as long as our starter doesn't throw 4 interceptions per game, I think we will be fine
Why does everyone think the D will play "much better"? It was not a horrid D last year. Jake Ryan, Frank Clark were pretty damn good players. Then a starting corner and the nickel corner were lost - essentially replaced by Lyons and IDK as the nickel now with Countess gone. DE is a big question mark on this team with little proven production and what is, is pretty average by Big 10 standards (Mario O).
The defense was ok not great last year and aside from the DT position, 1 S and 1 CB you dont have a lot of game changers out there and of the 4 people you account for (Lewis, Clark, Henry, Ryan) - half graduated. A guy like Bolden is productive but teams dont game plan around him - other LBs we have are similar...they make tackles but are not 'disruptive types'. There were not as many complaints out there that the D was badly coached as the offense so you are not getting a huge impact from coaching other than maybe the DBs.
I see the D as flat year over year with different strengths than 2014s squad - less strength on DE, better S play. The Ss should be better, the CBs probably flat now that Countess is gone, the LBs maybe flat, and the DEs down unless guys who right now are projections like a Taco can match Frank Clark. I assume someone will match Beyer from last year. Or we play a ton of 3-4 with Henry as a DE. But I dont see this huge upgrade in the D year over year everyone is pointing to unless 3-4 players come out of nowhere.
Clark, JMFR, Beyer, Countess, Taylor. I count 4 starters lost, plus our nickle corner.
Everyone overlooks Beyer, but he was damned good last year and at times outplayed Clark. Fact is we are losing both of our starting DEs, our MLB, and 2 of our top 3 corners. Taco and Mario have shown flashes at DE, but showing flashes and being an impact player all year long are often a long ways from each other. Happy Morgan will be back, but Jake Ryan was twice the disruptive force that Morgan will ever be. We need guys who can blow plays up regularly, we're losing our 3 best off our front 7 in that regard IMO.
Love our DTs though, even if Pipkins does leave. And Peppers will be a playmaker all year long IMO. I see our defense as being a step behind last year's to start, but by year's end they could be better.
I dont share your pessimisim about the defense.
Last years defense had plenty of talent but lacked consistency. If this D can be better at avoiding some the breakdowns or lapses we saw at times last year, the defense will improve overall.
Some of the biggest consistency issues were with DBs, but I am expecting a large upgrade this year between a healthy Peppers, an experienced Lyons, and a Jourdan Lewis who looks poised for a breakout year. Losing Countess hurts depth, but the reality is that he was one of the weakest links in the kind of scheme this staff wants to run.
As much as we all love JMFR, but his main job last year was simply to be in the right place at the right time and tackle the guy he was supposed to tackle. He did a fine job at that, but its not like he was all over the field blowing up every play. Desmond Morgan should be able to fill that role admirably. Someone like James Ross also certainly has the potential to remerge as force.
Losing Frank Clark hurts a bit as he was the only guy that showed an ability to get to the QB, but there's enough talent on the D-line with guys like Mone and Charlton and Henry that even an average career trajectory should mean that one or more of them should be rounding into form by next year. There's enough depth and now experience at that position that I see more reasons for optimism than pessimisim.
Basically, I see a lot more potential for improvment than I see substantial dropoff from the few players that we lost.
Lot of good points, but I'll disagree with DB play. M was laughed out of the building against ND when running a press man, then tucked tail on that and went with a "everybody finds a hole in it" zone that still wasn't great. The change had to be demoralizing after an offseason of tough guy man insistence, and the coaches clearly didn't know what they were doing. I believe scheme will be better this year.
Lyons is seen as a draft pick on several sites, anywhere from 3-5 round. That's a big, big upgrade over 2014 Countess if true. The second safety position was easily the weak link on this D last year, and now that flips to a strength. DT should be better with another year for Hurst and Mone. Marshall looked every bit what you'd want in the spring game, but don't know anything about him in real games, agree that DE is worse (Godin to DE please). Turnover luck should finally flip in M's direction as well.
So I'd say better at S, better at CB, better at DT, better at coaching/scheme, better at turnover luck, flat at LB (though Ross could win one of those jobs and be a disruptor you seek), worse at DE.
Bo's early defenses were no names at first. They were just well coached. The best DE, Phil Seymour graduated in '68. Bo was missing the best player on the defensive line in '68 but that '69 defense pulled off one of the greatest upsets in college football against OSU!
I'm not expecting miracles in year one but 7-5 and the Pinstripe Bowl sounds pretty awful.
The cover athletes are regional.
7-5 is my baseline; it is what I expect from this team. I'd be happy with 8 wins and thrilled with 9 or more.
Our noncon is brutal, and I don't think people have caught on to this yet.
Utah, OregonSt, UNLV and BYU is brutal? With 3/4 at home?
Far from a Brutal non-conference schedule. Utah is good and playing them on the road will be tough. I remember the years when we played ND and another top 10 team in consecutive weeks. The 2012 non-conference schedule was much more brutal!
HELL YEAH BOYS BOWL GAME
to me IMO. The floor is 6-6 while the ceiling is 9-3 based on the personnel and talent level.
I'd take Jim Harbaugh over Mike Riley every day of the year.
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Look at their schedule - its favorable.
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A 7-5 record was worst case scenario in the Carr era aka "year of infinite pain."
Why does it say on the left side of the cover, "Return to Glory for Nebraska?" What makes them think that Nebraska will improve with a mediocre coach but we'll go 7-5 with Harbaugh? I know, we underachieved last season, but holy shit...
Honestly, I just bought this magazine so I could scan the cover, print it out on photo paper and have it signed by Peppers at fan day so I can hang it next to the other signed covers I have.
Athlon has always had crappy predictions. They have the College Football Playoff as OSU vs Auburn and Alabama vs Baylor with OSU vs Alabama in the championship.
They're SEC fanboys.
from 2011 through 2014 were higher than NE! On paper we have more talent. IMO, our coach is much more talented then their coach! Only thing NE has going for them is a weak schedule and an easy B1G west. I think WI will beat them our for the division tittle. I've heard a lot from my NE co-workers who are all psyched up that they got the best coach last year and their all thinking Rose bowl or playoffs. I kind of doubt it! In fact it will probably end up putting a lot of pressure on their coach if he loses 4 games this season.
Pipkins and Fox are guys people think will medical and Kalis is a guy you are starting to hear on the dark side of the internets as being an attrition. I think Magnus is hinting at one other key defensive player as well.
Hadn't heard that about Kalis. That's not good. I think we could survive losing Pipkins, Countess, and Fox was never a factor. If we lose Kalis and a key defensive player, that becomes a lot more difficult to make up for. Obviously.
7-5 is the floor but I see this team and with this coaching staff I see this team 8-4 or 9-3. Some of you guys saying we dont have a game changer in RB and WR but I'm gonna go on a limb just say that if Ty Issac or Derrick Green Starts at RB between those two they can be the game changers at RB lets not forget Drake Johnson he probably gonna get some touches but he might not be the same as he was last season lets keep our eye on that. WR situation is kinda bad because we dont have that game changer with this core as of.Now if we get a transfer WR with those game breaking skills we be set but in reality we dont.
What are these ridiculously named bowls and how long until we get a Kardashian Bowl or a TMT Mayweather Bowl? #GetOffMyLawn
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Because at 14-0 the season won't be over
Hire Rick Nieuheisel as interim coach
LSU runs table, wins SEC, gets to NC game
Before game Rick sees Jimmy. Jimmy yells "Hey Rick, how about this, huh?!"
Rick has flash back, concedes game. Easiest. Championship. Ever.
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I was going to run over to Massey and start running some numbers, but I realized very quickly that this is sort of a clean break and it would likely be very dangerous to use past data to predict future results with Harbaugh in the equation. As for the prediction specifically, 7-5 is on the low end of what many predictive threads around here in the last few months have stated, and I admit, I would not be shocked if we finished north of Athlon's prediction.
With Harbaugh and the talent that's already here, I don't see it. I think they do much better than people have been conditioned to believe over the past ten years.
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Feels a bit low, but who knows. Sometimes these preseason lists, though, feel like they just did some basic math and then slotted teams into those records.