Athlon B1G Preview

Submitted by Caesar on

Here's the linkarooski.

Some observations:

  1. Nothing too crazy in their justification of Michigan's top 10 ranking. I do think it underplays the value of good o-line play, especially where they rank the o-line top five in the conference.
  2. Speaking of ranked units, Michigan is in their top five for all but LBs/DBs.
  3. Ohio State, which pretty much graduated everyone from their secondary, gets a top ranking for their DB unit. Bold stuff.
  4. No mention of Michigan State's offseason from hell. They expect State to go bowling.
  5. DPJ suggested by all three contributors as freshman of the year, which sounds like a definite possibility given his talent and Michigan's needs.
  6. Michigan sweeps the breakout player of the year--but it's not the same guy. 
  7. Ohio State beats out Wisconsin for the B1G championship. 
  8. Michigan finishes 3rd in the East, behind PSU and OSU.

othernel

June 27th, 2017 at 9:00 AM ^

Considering how much talent we're replacing this year, I can totally justify us being anywhere from 5th to 15th in the rankings.

Hopefully we don't hear too much complaining about disrespekt when some writer ranks us 9th.

Christicks

June 27th, 2017 at 9:01 AM ^

I can't wait for this season to start.  I'm so sick of the overblown PSU hype.  Barkley is amazing, I'll give them that, but their OL is garbage and McSorley just hurls the ball in the air.  Anyone who watched the USC game could see that.  I think a lot of people will be surprised when they drop 4 games.

APBlue

June 27th, 2017 at 9:46 AM ^

I totally agree.  Barkley is great, but McSorely = Arm Punts.

The '16 OSU game put them on a roll.  Give them credit for taking advantage of the momentum.  

If McSorelly makes major improvements, they could be worth all of the hype they're getting.  If he doesn't, they will lose 4 games this year. 

EGD

June 27th, 2017 at 11:59 AM ^

Four losses would actually be an okay season for Penn State.  I realize their insane fan base thinks they are going to win the national championship.  But I look at this schedule and see four very difficult games (at Iowa, vs. M, at OSU, vs. Neb) and five more that Penn State should probably win but could easily lose, especially if the particular opponent is better than expected in 2017 (Pitt, IU, at Northwestern, at MSU, at Maryland).  

Sat, Sep 2 vs Akron 12:00 PM
Sat, Sep 9 vs Pittsburgh 3:30 PM
Sat, Sep 16 vs Georgia State 7:30 PM
Sat, Sep 23 @ Iowa TBD
Sat, Sep 30 vs Indiana TBD
Sat, Oct 7 @ Northwestern 12:00 PM
Sat, Oct 21 vs Michigan TBD
Sat, Oct 28 @ Ohio State 3:30 PM
Sat, Nov 4 @ Michigan State TBD
Sat, Nov 11 vs Rutgers 12:00 PM
Sat, Nov 18 vs Nebraska TBD
Sat, Nov 25 @ Maryland
 
If Penn State goes 1-3 against the first group and 4-1 against the second, their fans would be disappointed but that's not terrible--and with their auto-wins against Akron, Georgia State, and Rutgers, they finish 8-4.
 
I could certainly be wrong, but I honestly don't see them doing much better than that.

Brian Griese

June 27th, 2017 at 10:00 AM ^

I think PSU is overrated coming into this season. However, assuming they stay relatively healthy, where do
you see 4 losses on their schedule? I acknowledge they have 6 games of above average difficulty, but half of them are at home. I don't see them losing 4 out of 6 between Northwestern, Pitt, Iowa, PSU, Mich and OSU. Three is a distinct possibility but I just can't see four.

ijohnb

June 27th, 2017 at 10:17 AM ^

Ohio State is going to smash their face.  I think we are a 50/50 game.  They will be laying it all out to beat us because they are aware of the face-smashing they will receive the following week, and it is home game, white out, etc. etc.  That is a coin flip.  At Iowa and at NW could be tricky.  Indiana at home could be a classic look ahead situation.  I think they will soundly beat State and Nebraska.  Pitt at home should not be difficult.

4 games is pushing it.  I think 9-3 or 10-2 is most likely with the aforementioned face-smashing that takes away a lot of the "luster" from whatever record they finish with.

Brian Griese

June 27th, 2017 at 10:20 AM ^

Will surely want revenge; that's a guaranteed loss in my mind. I still can't see them losing 3 out of those other 5 games like you pointed out. IMO they'll get three wins from NW, Iowa, Nebraska and Pitt at a minimum.

ijohnb

June 27th, 2017 at 10:23 AM ^

don't think they are as good as a lot of people think nationally, but I also don't think they are as overrated as most people do here.  Too much of our opinion is based on head to head with us last year.  We were playing our best football of the year and they were playing their worst, and had significant injury issues as well.  USC was pretty damn good last year, most people think the best 3 loss regular season team in the country and Penn State went toe to toe with them.  I think they are solid.

In reply to by ijohnb

RockinLoud

June 27th, 2017 at 10:56 AM ^

I'm probably super biased here because I absolutely LOATHE PSU, but all I remember from the Rose Bowl was McSorley arm punting it up over and over with USC's DB's inexplicibly getting beat by the PSU WR's over and over - with some nice runs by Barkley sprinkled in. I kept thinking there's no way they can sustain an offense like this the entire game and it didn't stop until the very end. Seemed more like not as much PSU going toe-to-toe as much as USC defensive backfield blowing it over and over with PSU pulling magic out of there butt almost the entire game. But again, I'm probabably letting my hatred cloud my interpretation of those clowns.

ijohnb

June 27th, 2017 at 11:27 AM ^

I mean I think we can all concur that Penn State is super gross.  I stipulate to that.  And if it was just the USC game alone last year I would agree with you - not enough to go on.  But Wisconsin and Ohio State were both pretty damn good last year and to go 2-0 vs. them, even if they were aided by an improbably blocked field goal, is still saying something. 

chomz14

June 27th, 2017 at 10:16 AM ^

It does seem like every other year or so a team other than Michigan or OSU is over hyped by these writers. Iowa like 4 times, recent northwestern and Minnesota teams, Sparty last year. And more than not, they have shit years. So ill say Penn State sucks. 5-7

tjohn7

June 27th, 2017 at 10:16 AM ^

I agree with you there. I could see a random loss somewhere in there, but I think their most possible losses are us and OSU. I can't see more than 3 losses, but hell, I thought they'd lose 6 games after getting thumped by us last year. Hoping Franklin overthinks things and helps us sneak out of Happy Valley with a win.

Perkis-Size Me

June 27th, 2017 at 10:49 AM ^

I don't think PSU is playoff-good this year, but I look at their schedule and really only see @OSU as a game where I'm pretty confident in saying they'll lose. OSU will be out for blood in that game, and its in Columbus. Other than that, their schedule isn't Murderers Row. 

@Iowa will be tricky, and Harbaugh has shown that he can fully castrate a Franklin-coached team. If we were at home or neutral site, I'd take us 10 out of 10 times. But winning @ Happy Valley at night is a very tall order. I do not think PSU is an elite team, but I could still seem them going 10-2 even if they lose to us and OSU. 

bronxblue

June 27th, 2017 at 2:13 PM ^

I think their offense is more dynamic than people are giving it credit, but McSorley was a 58% passer last year (and that was due in large part to huge numbers in his last three games).  He'll be more consistent another year in the offense, but he still strikes me as a high-risk/high-reward QB, and with question marks on their offensive line that is a recipe for some bad throws that get picked off.  Plus, their defense is still a question mark.  This was a defense that somehow gave up 31 points to Wisconsin and 52 to USC.  It's not a given that they'll be demonstrably better on that side of the field either as they have to replace their 2 leading sack generators on the line and a solid safety.  It's a talented team, but this feels a bit like PSU is going to be like the inverse of what they were under Franklin early on, which were these all-defense, no-offense units.  Now, they'll score 30+ points and give up a bit under that on average.

lhglrkwg

June 27th, 2017 at 9:07 AM ^

I'm trying not to gaze through my maize and blue glasses, but this is a team returning just 5 starters from a 3-9 team that also had a mass exodus offseason and is having crisis after crisis going on in the athletic department. And all those guys who graduated or left the team (or went to prison) aren't being backfilled by talent.

I guess I could see 6 wins, but I could also see a fantastic implosion where they go 3-9 again and Dantonio 'retires'

APBlue

June 27th, 2017 at 10:10 AM ^

That's interesting.  I'm crazy confident that IU is going to smoke MSU this year.  That's a game that I'm looking forward to.  

MSU could be 2-4 at that point.  Losing to IU would put them at 2-5 and probably an irreversable tail spin.  

I'll have my popcorn ready.

Tuebor

June 27th, 2017 at 2:09 PM ^

New coach for IU and lost their OL coach.  I think IU falls off the cliff.  We'll see this fall.

 

Right now I have MSU at about 20% chance of winning 6 games.  But 80% chance of winning 4.  BG, WMU, and Rutgers are sure wins for them.  Then I expect they'll have a good chance at beating IU in EL, Minnesota.  Northwestern is up and down so I don't know what to expect.  Maryland in EL will be tough for MSU but I'm not sold on DJ Durkin.  Especially after seeing Don Brown do what he did with essentially the same defense.

Cruzcontrol75

June 28th, 2017 at 11:27 AM ^

Is a gimme. I hope the Spartans go in believing that. Western as someone earlier pointed out returns 9 defensive starters off of a 13-1 season. The stable of RBs is regarded as one of the best in the country #7 by Bleacher Report and I saw another pub had them #13. Granted replacing a 4yr starting QB and entire receiving corps led by Titans Corey Davis is a lot. But the attrition on MSUs DBs is extraordinary. 9 lost to: graduation, early to NFL, sexual assault, Xfer & 1 had a stroke last year. They are converting a LB a WR and will have to play redshirt and true freshman at CB & safety.

M-Dog

June 27th, 2017 at 9:23 AM ^

It's gotten so ridiculous that I can see them rallying together in an "us against the world" mentality, which they are quite good at.

I actually think they will have a much better season than people think.

And I don't care.  Just so it is not at our expense.  

Let Penn State worry about Sparty's circle-the-wagons attitude.

 

Guy Fawkes

June 27th, 2017 at 9:26 AM ^

I find it hilarious that Sparty is basically guaranteeing a win vs Western. That's a team that IIRC returns 9 starters on D and is still solid on the OL as well. Western has a lot of experience from the NY6 bowl last season and I actually think they beat MSU which puts the program in even more of a downward spiral

Ty Butterfield

June 27th, 2017 at 10:23 AM ^

If PJ Fleck was still at WMU I think the Broncos win this game. It was really funny to see all the Staee bandwagon fans all of the sudden "Rowing the Boat" last season. Attendance at the Staee games may be pretty sparse this season.

Bodogblog

June 27th, 2017 at 12:10 PM ^

"Michigan State returns just five starters but played a handful of young players that gained valuable experience last season." 

The problem with this thinking is that most of them are gone. 

Corley - gone 

Likusa - gone (this is a huge blow for their OL) 

King - gone 

Robertson - gone 

Lyke - gone 

Tyson Smith - stroke, questionable to return 

Some who fit that description: Lewerke, Higby, Chewins, Bacie, some slow white guy safeties.  They were all OK.  Lewerke showed poise and some lack of accuracy in precious few attempts.  Chewins I like, but he's still too thin - probably another year away, but he's playing now due to absolute need. 

 

bronxblue

June 27th, 2017 at 2:18 PM ^

6-6 feels about right to me.  They were a garbage fire last year, but they also had some bad luck in close games.  Most years they don't lose to to Indiana by 3, Illinois by 4, Maryland by 11.  It sort of depends on how they finish those first 4 games against WMU, BGSU, ND, and Iowa.  If ND bounces back, WMU keeps a bit of that Fleck magic, and Iowa plays frisky, they'll probably limp into the Michigan game 1-3 and their season could fall off the rails.  But I feel like this is the type of team that goes 3-1 with a "big" win against ND or Iowa and pick off your Rutgers, Indiana, NW, and/or Maryland to get to 6.

Everyone Murders

June 27th, 2017 at 9:51 AM ^

To complete my thought, I want PSU thrown out of the B1G and their football program shut down by the NCAA.  On account of decades of facilitating and covering up the rape of children.

/ never gets tired of sounding that horn /

CRISPed in the DIAG

June 27th, 2017 at 9:39 AM ^

It seems like everyone was dissatisfied with their OL play last year. At various times I heard OSU, PSU and State complain that their lines were inexperienced and underachieving.

stephenrjking

June 27th, 2017 at 11:50 AM ^

Spring game performances can be ephemeral. Worth noting, though, that virtually every piece of chatter from Michigan practices gushed about how good Black was. How much that translates to the field is unknown, but there's certainly room for a couple of freshmen to emerge and Black is making a play for it.

The really relevant stuff starts in five or six weeks. 

NittanyFan

June 27th, 2017 at 11:47 AM ^

Bill Connelly put up his Northwestern preview just an hour ago.  The team has quite a bit of talent, and the dominoes may be lining up in order.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/6/27/15864518/northweste…

Every single prediction I've seen has Wisconsin winning the West.  And Northwestern plays in Madison.  

But they won there 2 years ago, and they have a rather favorable schedule.  Win in Madison, and they're probably a minimum 7-2 in the B1G.  Given the head-to-head and that Wisconsin has other loseable games on their own schedule (e.g., hosting Michigan), a 7-2 Northwestern could easily win the West.

JFW

June 27th, 2017 at 3:09 PM ^

"

  1. Nothing too crazy in their justification of Michigan's top 10 ranking. I do think it underplays the value of good o-line play, especially where they rank the o-line top five in the conference."

They always seem to do this, IMHO. 

Eye of the Tiger

June 27th, 2017 at 7:04 PM ^

This is the year when we suffer the consequences of poor OL recruiting under Hoke and the relatively low quality of the transition year class. We are going to be young and lack depth at key positions, whereas OSU will have more depth and experience almost across the board. 

It is possible that we beat them, but it is not likely. And this is entirely understandable.