Are we setting ourselves up for disappointment?

Submitted by MikeCohodes on

Ok so after the gut checking / nut punching / mindnumbingly depressing / <insert your superlative description here> game we all went through as fans Saturday, I noticed a lot of people saying how happy they were that basketball season was just around the corner. Are we really that excited for the hoops season though? Or are we setting ourselves up to be disappointed again?

Last season was a magical season that none of us will forget any time soon. But we lost Tim and Trey to the NBA, are we really so sure that we are going to be able to match their level of output? Are we expecting a Final Four run again? Some people seem to be expecting us to win it all this season based on their comments, which I don't see happening (but I'll be more than happy if I'm wrong). I guess I just think that we're being way too hard on this football team by giving up on them halfway through the season, and I think some are getting way too optimistic about the basketball team's chances beyond the Sweet 16 (where I think they'll land) this year and are just setting themselves up for a rough winter.

Am I nuts? Overthinking it? Or am I right to sound a warning now?

Perkis-Size Me

October 15th, 2013 at 5:37 PM ^

If McGary is healthy by the time we have to play Arizona, or in the Puerto Rico tournament, whichever one comes first, then no, I don't think we're setting ourselves up for disappointment. He played like an All-American in the tournament, and could be one of the best players in the country this season. But again, that's if he's healthy. GRIII is moving more towards his natural position, and with another full offseason he should be that much better this time around, especially if he can start creating more of his own shots.

Yes, losing Trey will undoubtedly hurt, as well as THJ, but we've got Walton and Irvin coming in to help replace their production, two of the best HS players in America last year. And let's not forget about Albrecht. Neither Walton nor Albrecht are going to be as good as Burke was, but they don't have to be. We've got enough scorers on this team to help pick up the slack. Finally, this team went through the ringer last season in the tournament. They're battle-tested, and know what it takes to dig deep down to win ball games.

McGary is the x-factor this year. If he's healthy, we're right there in the discussion for a Big Ten title. If not, it's probably MSU's to lose.

goblue16

October 15th, 2013 at 5:48 PM ^

Basketball is far different than football only a little talent will take u places and we have plenty of talent. Beilein has shown he can coach any group and with so many returning players we should be fine. The regular season and the big ten tournament wr a disappointment last year so I don't see how we can have over expectations. All I want is a top three finish in the big ten an appearance in the big ten tournament final and a sweet sixteen all this is very realistic and I think we can exceed this

robmorren2

October 15th, 2013 at 6:15 PM ^

Being a fan of sports is generally one big disappointment. Unless you're a fan of the Yankees, then you probably won't see many championships in a lifetime by your beloved teams. I'm guessing around 95-99% of seasons end in heartbreak or disappointment. I'm a UM Football fan, 1 championship in my 29 years. UM basketball 1 in 29. Chicago Bears 1 in 29. Cubs 0 in 29. That's 3 Championships in 116 opportunities (seasons). Add to the fact that I was 1 when the Bears won and 5 when UM basketball won, and I've really only gotten to experience complete sports satisfaction one time in my life (97 UM Football). Being a fan is a rough ride. The loss to Louisville really hurt; but you have to pick your battles. Winning against rivals, seasons of improvement, and sustained success are all things that can occur without a championship at the end.

robmorren2

October 15th, 2013 at 8:18 PM ^

It wasn't a disappointment, but it was a total heartbreaker. I will probably never be able to watch that game again. It was just brutal to get so close and have it ripped away; Spike going nuts, Fab Five in the house, and everything else. I'm sure I'll be able to look back after some time and appreciate it without all the negative feeling. I felt the same way when UM lost to Ohio in football, and then got dumped in favor of Florida for the NC Game. It just feels like you may never get that close to a championship again. Those opportunities are so rare, especially with all the luck it takes.

umumum

October 16th, 2013 at 11:46 AM ^

I don't question your heartfelt sincerity whatsoever, but as the prior commentater suggested a national championship shouldn't be your only definition of a great season.  I get the heartbreak  the night of the Championship game, but this far out?  I look back on last year's NCAA run with pure joy and affection--and the last year's final loss does nary little to impede it. 

The BCS bowl system has only exacerbated the belief that only one team had a great season.

M-Wolverine

October 16th, 2013 at 3:59 PM ^

If Louisville had looked like the best team in the country and mashed us by 20 it'd be easier to just say "oh well, good run." But considering how we were up and what went down it still stings that we couldn't close out on something you only get a few chances to get.  It in no way makes it a "bad" or "failed" season. A great one by any measure. But one that will always leave the "what might have been" taste in your mouth.

I don't know, it might be age. If you've seen us miss out vs. Duke and NC, and then not get another chance for 20 years, it might seem like once again coming up short. If you have only lived through the dark times then this was a surprise, something new, and a great run that we can expect many more of.  Though that's generalities that may not be true. Only thing that is would be that there's no guarantee we come so close to the promised land any time soon.

umumum

October 16th, 2013 at 7:34 PM ^

for all the good times and bad, which, in my world, puts sports in perspective.  I was in Seattle in 1989 (and Minneapolis and New Orleans in 92 &93) and, while winning the National Championship was sweet, I don't look back on that season--with its ups and downs--any more fondly than 2013.  The biggest heartbreak for me was 1993 because that was the one time we were the best team and didn't win.  Last year's team exceeded expectations and I just don't see how one can let the final game linger in any kind of negative fashion.

Sllepy81

October 15th, 2013 at 6:29 PM ^

beginning. No f-ING idea. Trey Burke won a lot of games. Spike is ok but not quick on D, defense will get burned in the backcourt until the freshmen prove themselves.

Michigan4Life

October 15th, 2013 at 11:29 PM ^

along with good players on the team like Morgan, Nik, etc. and 2 highly touted freshmen.

If there's a coaching staff who knows how to ease the loss of Trey and THJ, it's JB. I have more faith in JB and coaching staff than I do with Hoke and coaching staff.

I'm expecting a 20 win season and at least a Sweet 16 appearance.

LSAClassOf2000

October 15th, 2013 at 7:03 PM ^

Preseason numbers here should be taken for what they are - way-too-early predictions based on historic figures, but still, for your perusal, here is what Massey would say right now:

http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=4741&s=203290

I'll let you go to the link, as the table would be annoyingly large in the board format, but if that table were the case, it would estimate a rather nice season for us. 

ppudge

October 15th, 2013 at 7:30 PM ^

This is 100% accurate. Do I think the basketball team will go to the Final 4 again? No, I actually don't. Do I think the coaches will get the most out of the players that they can and put them in position to win? Yes, I do.

I can't say the same for football at this point.

WingsNWolverines

October 15th, 2013 at 8:55 PM ^

Morgan, Horford, LeVert, GR III, McGary and Albrecht. Stauskus also. I think we'll have a decent year and possibly another good run. To the title game again won't be easy and I don't see it happening but I can see us in the final four again with the talent were bringing back. The question is how well will Spike do with the absence of Burke?

champswest

October 15th, 2013 at 9:08 PM ^

National Championship. They ended up being very good, but did not make the final four. This year, many UM football fans expected us to go undefeated and play for the National Championship. High expectations, that is what we as fans often have. As for myself, I expected the football team to go 8-4 this year and I hope that we can still do that. I am very much looking forward to the basketball season and I think we will have an excellent team. I don't expect us to equal last years success. I do think we can reach the sweet 16.

I Have A Gnarly Face

October 15th, 2013 at 10:53 PM ^

If people already looking forward to basketball and want football to be done, then said people have turned into the likes of Sparty fans.

TheLastHarbaugh

October 16th, 2013 at 3:07 AM ^

Sometimes it feels like the only thing some of you people love more than complaining about Michigan athletics is watching Michigan athletics lose so that you can claim your complaints are justified.

I'm just saying, this has been the most "Sparty-esque" week on the blog that I can recall.

magonus

October 16th, 2013 at 7:21 AM ^

I expect the same thing that I always expect from our teams and that's that they will win a championship this season. Anything less and the season is a failure. That's part of why Saturday's loss was so hard, the football team was already a long shot even if they did go 13-0 because there are a lot of voters who would still give a 1 loss SEC or PAC 12 team the nod over a Big Ten team. Now there's no shot.

M-Wolverine

October 16th, 2013 at 11:10 AM ^

You are going to be disappointed.  I mean, most of the time that doesn't happen, even for long term powers.

And it's going to be tougher this year than last. How many of the teams in the Tournament really had a lot more talent than Michigan? Hardly any.  This year was a better year for seniors, and you have a lot more really good one and down type guys. Kentucky, Kansas, a few others....if we play just as well as them in a game we lose. They just have bigger upside players. It's not that we can't beat one of them. They could play badly; we could play exceptionally. It's just that we'd need a lot of them to play badly and get bounced to get past them all (whether we beat them or someone else does). Last season was not an exceptional year for talent in the NCAA. We might have had as good of talent as anyone; we were at least close.  That's why losing last year hurts....you don't know when your talent base is going to align with the college basketball landscape again. We could be really good in a great year (like this year) or we couldn't not have a super great team in a year when the rest of the teams are down. Last year was a good match, we just fell a tiny bit short. Again. Sigh.