Are "we" better than OSU right now?
Less than a month away from the Game, I think a lot of MSM personalities are writing us off.
Why?
I'm a subscriber to the notion of buy low, sell high. Perception of our team is WAY lower than it should be. We lost to an NFL team in Texas, should have beaten a top 5 team South Bend, and had our only 'bad' loss to a solid team in Nebraska at night (without our star performer). Our defense has solidified in tough situations. Our offense is slumping, but very dangerous.
OSU is flying to high to the sun right now. 9-0, but one of the ugliest 9-0 teams I've seen. Almost lost to Indiana, among other weak opponents. Looked very sloppy out of conference. Defense is a sieve.
Granted, three losses will drive the perception that we are not on their level. So will the shallow topical commentary by media members. But I think that our team will be able to drive on their defense, and I don't think can match our point production.
My opinion is that we are a better football team this year.
October 29th, 2012 at 10:13 PM ^
In a word. No.
In two words. Hell No.
October 29th, 2012 at 10:26 PM ^
Here are the current conference rankings on some of the more important metrics, in my estimation. (Source: THIS).
| CONFERENCE RANK (10/29/2012) | ||
| Michigan | Ohio State | |
| Pass Eff. Defense | 4th | 7th |
| Kick Returns | 3rd | 7th |
| Passing Offense | 11th | 9th |
| Passing Defense | 1st | 12th |
| Pass Efficiency | 11th | 5th |
| Pass Interceptions | 5th (tie) | 1st |
| Rushing Offense | 4th | 2nd |
| Rushing Defense | 6th | 3rd |
| Scoring Defense | 2nd | 8th |
| Scoring Offense | 6th | 2nd |
| Total Defense | 2nd | 9th |
| Total Offense | 7th | 3rd |
| Turnover Margin | 10th | 6th |
October 29th, 2012 at 11:00 PM ^
Pass efficiency - 11th vs. 5th
Rushing offense - 4th vs. 2nd
Scoring offense - 6th vs. 2nd
I'm hard-core Blue ... but there's wishful thinking and there's reality -- OSU is not a perfect team but they have their strengths. Miller is pretty good QB, and they balance his passing with a decent running attack.
I hope for a win down in Columbus ... but I think it unwise to assume we're simply better and the win is more or less a given.
October 29th, 2012 at 10:32 PM ^
& it's not that close.
for the record my Guess The Score pick was Neb 20 - M 13.
Even with Denard, we are barely functioning on offense.
October 29th, 2012 at 10:35 PM ^
October 29th, 2012 at 10:44 PM ^
You my "Ohio friend" have no remote idea if you are talking about how we have had similar growing pains... I'll make this short and to the point: Ohio didn't endure its worst 3 consecutive seasons in its history and already had numerous players that knew the offense Urban was going to bring. Michigan had probably the most ignorant man ever coach in three straight seasons and now we are having to pay for and clean up his mess. Man, must be tough down there with that 9-0 record down south!
October 29th, 2012 at 10:55 PM ^
October 29th, 2012 at 11:29 PM ^
Thanks for the clarification... Living in the south and being the target of criticism (Big Ten fan living in SEC country) I get a little touchy on the subject of Rich Rod... Some dark days alright. And you do bring up a good point: I am glad Ohio and Michigan are on the right paths to restoring their names not only in the B1G, but on a national level. Thanks and GO Blue!
October 30th, 2012 at 8:25 AM ^
Everything he said was correct except OSU playing harder than the other teams they line up against. They don't play harder, they have better players, plain and simple And if you think UM is better than Ohio right now you are kidding yourself. Their defense is mediocre at best, but their offense makes up for it. Our offense is mediocre at best and unfortuantely as good as our defense is, they can't score points. Relying on Denard to play the game of his life on the road to win is not something I put a lot of faith in. Having said that, it is a game much like the MSU game. No matter what has happened leading up to the game, barring a large talent discrepancy (see Rodriguez era) the game is usually close. I predict it comes down to the fourth quarter. UM pulls the upset and irritates OSU fans for another 365
October 29th, 2012 at 10:55 PM ^
I have short and short answers for you.
Without Denard or with not-so-healthy Denard: No, Michigan will lose the game.
With healthy Denard: Michigan wins. Michigan's D can put up a fight againt OSU offense, but OSU's D cannot. Keep in mind. Michigan's offense is much more potent than any stats show, with healthy Deanrd. Oh yeah... our team gells, too.
October 29th, 2012 at 10:55 PM ^
...I would agree that Michigan isn't better but is in a close enough neighborhood to make it difficult to call.
If the 2005 Michigan team could come within a defensive stand of winning against a far better Ohio team, I have to believe this year's team with its very stout defense stands a good chance. This team has been tested repeatedly, although it has fallen short in three of the four games (MSU win, but 'Bama, ND, Neb); Ohio has not really been tested on the level of 'Bama (or even ND), but when things have been close it has come out ahead. I tend to give less weight to common opponents like Nebraska--just because Ohio could put up 63 points on Nebraska's D doesn't mean they can do it on Michigan.
So is Michigan better than Ohio? Not by any metric that I know of, but for all the reasons you point out there is still a very strong chance that Michigan puts itself in a position to win and goes from there.
October 30th, 2012 at 12:17 AM ^
October 30th, 2012 at 1:53 AM ^
October 30th, 2012 at 4:20 PM ^
Dude, he stole my thing and I am crushed.
October 29th, 2012 at 10:47 PM ^
October 30th, 2012 at 5:57 AM ^
And Ohio State struggled against a Purdue team we thrashed.
"The Offense isn't good enough period" - Small Samples Sizes for the Win! Especially when our star player was out for half the game!
October 30th, 2012 at 10:07 AM ^
a TD against MSU defense with Denard healthy. Even with Denard healthy, they scored 6 pts which is not good considering how bad the defense really is.
October 30th, 2012 at 12:47 PM ^
With Denard healthy we were about to go up 10-7 at half, possibly more since Denard could have driven the offense right before halftime and gotten some points out of it
October 30th, 2012 at 2:29 PM ^
is subjective and doesn't really say anything because Nebraska could have tighten down and hold them for a FG or force a TO.
October 29th, 2012 at 10:47 PM ^
The OSU-Indiana game was not close. The closest they came until the last minute was a seven point lead during the third. From that point on they build an 18 point lead and traded touchdowns the rest of the game. They were never in danger of losing.
October 29th, 2012 at 10:57 PM ^
C'mon. That game came down to an onside kick. It's close enough in a SHOOT OUT.
October 29th, 2012 at 10:51 PM ^
OSU seems to always play up or down to their competition.
...and of course UM will be their biggest game of the season so I would expect them to play well.
Next year their offense will be scary good because they return literally everyone. Defense will still be a big question mark.
October 29th, 2012 at 10:59 PM ^
October 30th, 2012 at 10:29 AM ^
You in no way, shape, or form had crappy recruiting on defense in the last 10 years. Offensive line, yes, but defense, no way.
2008: Williams, Sweat, Sabino, Mobley, Johnson, Howard, Goebel, Rowell, and Wells. Six of the nine are 4-star players. Your class that year was small, but it also had some of the most heralded offensive prospects in recent recruiting years. When that happens you tend to sacrifice some on the other side of the ball.
2009: Barnett, Bell, Bellamy, Brown, Clarke, Fellows, Klein, Newsome, Simon, Whiting, and Wood. Stacked with 4-star and 5-star talent.
2010: Baldwin, Bryant, Durham, Hagan, Hankins, McVey, Moore, and Turner. By far the weakest defensive class Ohio has had in 10 years...
2011: Bennett, Cash, Crowell, Farris, Gambrell, C. Grant, D. Grant, Hale, Hayes, Miller, Price, Shazier, and Tanner. Seven 4-star players, five on the verge of 4 stars, and one low 3-star player. That more than makes up for the prior year's class.
Sorry, but your argument that as a team your talent was as lacking as what Michigan was during a coaching transition is baseless. You guys talk about how you have depth issues at OL, yet you have taken 15 OL in 4 years. Not great, but by no means scary bad. We took 8! DBs in 4 years and only 4 were highly rated at 4 stars. Two left early before the coaching transition and one was forced to transfer because of an ineligibility error. That left us with 5 true DBs on our 2008 roster. Over the same 4 years, we only had 13 OL commits, 6 DT commits, 3 TE commits, and 10 LBs (most of which were middling 3-star players). Not to mention all the 4-star talent that up and left the team.
Bottom line: you are nowhere near close to feeling our pain.
October 30th, 2012 at 11:05 AM ^
November 1st, 2012 at 12:02 PM ^
I do not believe your issues are the result of poor recruiting. All of your defensive players that committed were highly ranked and coveted by everyone. Busts happen, but many times it can be attributed to things that cannot be measured, such as a player not picking up on the defense, not transitioning well to the rigors of college, unforseen outside influences, etc. You have plenty of talent on your team.
As far as depth issues over the years at Michigan:
2008 - Three o-lineman graduate and one jumps ship to play for Ohio. Best WRs both leave early leaving us with 1 wide receiver with any meaningful playing time. Quarterbacks were non-existent once Ryan Mallet transferred out. Only options were a Georgia Tech transfer and a walk-on...
2009 - Most underclassmen on the two-deep roster in the nation. Nine true freshmen or red-shirt freshmen starters, including a walk-on. Linebackers were made up of converted safeties and receivers weighing 210 lbs. Middle LB backup was air.
2010 - Starting safety and corner injured, forced to play freshmen converted quarterback and receiver.
2011 - Two walk-ons on our d-line rotation. Couldn't run 2 TE sets unless we used a converted DE.
Also, terrible defensive coaching and zero player development of our back 7 for three years to boot. We went 3-9, 5-7, and 7-6 in those three years. Your 9-0 record after a coaching transition does not compare.
October 29th, 2012 at 11:03 PM ^
Next year they also play only Cal in non-conference (with apparently one game to be scheduled) and miss MSU and Nebraska. If Penn State implodes as expected their only difficult B1G games are Wisco and Michigan.
Ohio could be perfectly mediocre and still undefeated or with a single loss by for The Game.
October 30th, 2012 at 4:22 PM ^
Vandy bailed on us.
October 29th, 2012 at 11:05 PM ^
In all important facets of life, we are better than OSU.
/ homer
October 29th, 2012 at 11:08 PM ^
October 29th, 2012 at 11:09 PM ^
October 29th, 2012 at 11:14 PM ^
Probably not. But I like our chances with Hoke and Denard vs Urban Legend and Miller.
October 29th, 2012 at 11:16 PM ^
Nope.
October 29th, 2012 at 11:24 PM ^
I think our defense will by pumped for the Game, but unless our offensive unit begins to make progress in the next three weeks, this could come down to Gibbons' leg. I think moving forward though, the O-line depth (or lack thereoff) at tsiO, will become a critical issue if it isn't addressed quickly.
October 29th, 2012 at 11:40 PM ^
I'd say both of these teams are on even playing fields right now. I think their offense is much more balanced, but our defense is better than theirs. One way or another, should make for one hell of a matchup.
October 29th, 2012 at 11:53 PM ^
game will be will depend entirely on if OSU can hit the deep passes that were WIDE open last year.
It could be close or a rout.
October 30th, 2012 at 12:12 AM ^
If Michigan had an explosive passing offense, I think Ohio State would be toast. Except Michigan doesn't.
Defense: Michigan might have a slight edge here. That edge might be razor sharp if only Ohio were a passing team. Except their not.
Rushing Yards: Ohio 33rd, Michigan 52nd (1,005 yds vs. 1,161 yds)
Passing Yards: Ohio 119th, Michigan 1st (2,501 yds vs 1,162 yrds)
Scoring Def: Ohio 50th, Michigan 14th (28 pts vs. 17 pts/gm)
Offense: Ohio has a significant advantage in my opinion
Scoring: Ohio 21st, Michigan 64th (38.6 pts vs. 28 pts/gm)
Rushing: Ohio 7th, Michigan 29th (2231 yds vs. 1653 yrds)
Passing: Ohio 88th, Michigan 110th (1655 yds vs 1372 yrds)
1st downs: It's pretty even at 19 to 20 per game for both teams
3rd D Conv %: Ohio 44.7%, Michigan 47.3%
Borges could set up Denard to succeed big time in this game with the right calls and if Denard can "stay on target".
I don't think either team will run the ball effectively in this game.
Turnovers (INTs!), penalties and special teams play will dictate the outcome of a close game.
I don't think Ohio is unbeaten heading in to the Michigan game.. They've got too much historical bad mojo vs. Wisconsin in Madison, in what will be the Badgers' last home game of the season and a must-win for UW to get to the title game.
October 30th, 2012 at 9:28 AM ^
I think "staying on target" is always the question. I think Borges called up an agressive plan against Notre Dame. While Michigan was moving the ball against a very good defense, the turnovers killed us. I think the agressiveness lead to the turnovers (besides some really stupid throws). Against Nebraska, our offense couldn't move the ball well because we were so conservative.
So what do you want? conservative playcalling that barely moves the ball? or agressive playcalling that moves the ball, but is mistake prone?
I'd rather unleash Denard and live with the potential mistakes.
October 30th, 2012 at 12:18 AM ^
October 30th, 2012 at 5:54 AM ^
That is so very true. There is a month of football and injuries and exposed weaknesses in the mean time can really be what sets the game.
I am picking Michigan to win but I am not actually putting my paycheck on it.
October 30th, 2012 at 12:42 AM ^
Let's hope the offense can find another gear or at least a gear period, before the game
October 30th, 2012 at 1:02 AM ^
I remember how bitter urban was when we shredded the gators in Lloyd's last game and I would like nothing more to see that same look and hear the same excuses in his post game presser.
October 30th, 2012 at 2:04 AM ^
I think the teams are fairly equal if both have their #1 QB's. If either has to go to the bench, though, there is a severe degradation of the "sample."
October 30th, 2012 at 4:28 AM ^
I disagree. In the Purdue game, Guiton showed he could step in and keep the offense moving. He's managed to score on almost every possession he's been under center for. Now, would I want him starting over Braxton? No, but if Braxton were, God forbid, to get hurt early on, I'm confident that Kenny G. could keep the offense moving smoothly.
October 30th, 2012 at 8:39 AM ^
October 30th, 2012 at 6:05 AM ^
I bet if we were to go back a year ago and reread the boards after the Iowa loss, there's probably a thread exactly like this. Talking about how our Offense is doomed and OSU is gonna kill us
October 30th, 2012 at 10:04 AM ^
October 30th, 2012 at 10:27 AM ^
October 30th, 2012 at 10:43 AM ^
If the game were being played in Ann Arbor, I'd agree 100% with you.
You may see no difference between playing at home and playing on the road—especially against OSU—but Michigan's record speaks for itself in that regard. Michigan has yet to prove it can beat a quality team in their stadium under Hoke.