You my "Ohio friend" have no remote idea if you are talking about how we have had similar growing pains... I'll make this short and to the point: Ohio didn't endure its worst 3 consecutive seasons in its history and already had numerous players that knew the offense Urban was going to bring. Michigan had probably the most ignorant man ever coach in three straight seasons and now we are having to pay for and clean up his mess. Man, must be tough down there with that 9-0 record down south!
Are "we" better than OSU right now?
My use of "similar" referred to the depth issues Hoke inherited at key positions similar to how Urban has inherited depth issues at key positions. You are correct that we are not similar in how our respective teams have performed over the last few years. You are incorrect in your statement that players on our offense were familiar with Urban's spread offense. No one was. Braxton certainly was not. Not sure what you were referring to.
Anyways, I speak for most rational OSU fans everywhere when I say that we are all glad Hoke has your team headed the right direction because without a strong OSU and Michigan, this conference and college football in general are worse off.
Thanks for the clarification... Living in the south and being the target of criticism (Big Ten fan living in SEC country) I get a little touchy on the subject of Rich Rod... Some dark days alright. And you do bring up a good point: I am glad Ohio and Michigan are on the right paths to restoring their names not only in the B1G, but on a national level. Thanks and GO Blue!
Everything he said was correct except OSU playing harder than the other teams they line up against. They don't play harder, they have better players, plain and simple And if you think UM is better than Ohio right now you are kidding yourself. Their defense is mediocre at best, but their offense makes up for it. Our offense is mediocre at best and unfortuantely as good as our defense is, they can't score points. Relying on Denard to play the game of his life on the road to win is not something I put a lot of faith in. Having said that, it is a game much like the MSU game. No matter what has happened leading up to the game, barring a large talent discrepancy (see Rodriguez era) the game is usually close. I predict it comes down to the fourth quarter. UM pulls the upset and irritates OSU fans for another 365
I have short and short answers for you.
Without Denard or with not-so-healthy Denard: No, Michigan will lose the game.
With healthy Denard: Michigan wins. Michigan's D can put up a fight againt OSU offense, but OSU's D cannot. Keep in mind. Michigan's offense is much more potent than any stats show, with healthy Deanrd. Oh yeah... our team gells, too.
...I would agree that Michigan isn't better but is in a close enough neighborhood to make it difficult to call.
If the 2005 Michigan team could come within a defensive stand of winning against a far better Ohio team, I have to believe this year's team with its very stout defense stands a good chance. This team has been tested repeatedly, although it has fallen short in three of the four games (MSU win, but 'Bama, ND, Neb); Ohio has not really been tested on the level of 'Bama (or even ND), but when things have been close it has come out ahead. I tend to give less weight to common opponents like Nebraska--just because Ohio could put up 63 points on Nebraska's D doesn't mean they can do it on Michigan.
So is Michigan better than Ohio? Not by any metric that I know of, but for all the reasons you point out there is still a very strong chance that Michigan puts itself in a position to win and goes from there.
You're not just going to reveal yourself as a Nebraska fan who has been trolling us by pretending to be a guy?
Michigan has really struggled to score against a terrible Nebraska defense. Yes the defense is good enough to keep them in the game but the offense isn't good enough period.
And Ohio State struggled against a Purdue team we thrashed.
"The Offense isn't good enough period" - Small Samples Sizes for the Win! Especially when our star player was out for half the game!
a TD against MSU defense with Denard healthy. Even with Denard healthy, they scored 6 pts which is not good considering how bad the defense really is.
With Denard healthy we were about to go up 10-7 at half, possibly more since Denard could have driven the offense right before halftime and gotten some points out of it
is subjective and doesn't really say anything because Nebraska could have tighten down and hold them for a FG or force a TO.
The OSU-Indiana game was not close. The closest they came until the last minute was a seven point lead during the third. From that point on they build an 18 point lead and traded touchdowns the rest of the game. They were never in danger of losing.
C'mon. That game came down to an onside kick. It's close enough in a SHOOT OUT.
OSU seems to always play up or down to their competition.
...and of course UM will be their biggest game of the season so I would expect them to play well.
Next year their offense will be scary good because they return literally everyone. Defense will still be a big question mark.
Co-sign. Keep in mind, we lose Simon, Goebel and likely Hankins and Roby next season. Our defense will continue to be a work in progress and will rely way too much on underclass men. Yay crappy recruiting three-four years ago.
You in no way, shape, or form had crappy recruiting on defense in the last 10 years. Offensive line, yes, but defense, no way.
2008: Williams, Sweat, Sabino, Mobley, Johnson, Howard, Goebel, Rowell, and Wells. Six of the nine are 4-star players. Your class that year was small, but it also had some of the most heralded offensive prospects in recent recruiting years. When that happens you tend to sacrifice some on the other side of the ball.
2009: Barnett, Bell, Bellamy, Brown, Clarke, Fellows, Klein, Newsome, Simon, Whiting, and Wood. Stacked with 4-star and 5-star talent.
2010: Baldwin, Bryant, Durham, Hagan, Hankins, McVey, Moore, and Turner. By far the weakest defensive class Ohio has had in 10 years...
2011: Bennett, Cash, Crowell, Farris, Gambrell, C. Grant, D. Grant, Hale, Hayes, Miller, Price, Shazier, and Tanner. Seven 4-star players, five on the verge of 4 stars, and one low 3-star player. That more than makes up for the prior year's class.
Sorry, but your argument that as a team your talent was as lacking as what Michigan was during a coaching transition is baseless. You guys talk about how you have depth issues at OL, yet you have taken 15 OL in 4 years. Not great, but by no means scary bad. We took 8! DBs in 4 years and only 4 were highly rated at 4 stars. Two left early before the coaching transition and one was forced to transfer because of an ineligibility error. That left us with 5 true DBs on our 2008 roster. Over the same 4 years, we only had 13 OL commits, 6 DT commits, 3 TE commits, and 10 LBs (most of which were middling 3-star players). Not to mention all the 4-star talent that up and left the team.
Bottom line: you are nowhere near close to feeling our pain.
As I noted in an earlier post my comment about crappy recruiting referenced the fact tha highly touted recruits we relied on ended up either being busts or transferring or both. You're making my point for me by throwing the evidence out there on your post.
2009 class are true seniors today. Of the 11 players you named, THREE remain with this team. I count at least three linebackers that are no longer with this team from that class. Again, as I noted earlier in another post, do you think we play Zach Boren at MLB just for laughs?
2010 class (juniors): 4/8 remain of that class remain on this team. Again, some good linebackers in that class that did not pan out.
I have no gripes about the 2011 class ( sophomores) except for Curtis Grant, our supposed future at MLB for 2010-2014. Again, do you think we play Boren at MLB for laughs?
Obviously hits and misses on the recruiting trail happen. As do players getting homesick or disenchanted when their coach is forced to resign, etc. but the senior and junior class are uncharacteristically terrible looking back. Especially, as I said earlier, with regard to our back seven. Must've been bad luck, because I know Fickell can recruit the LB position (hawk and laurinaitis were 3 stars that he plucked out). Either way, Urban inherited a fragile back seven to say the least.
As for comparisons to your issues, I can't say for sure because I'm not as knowledgeable about your class's struggles. I will say this: we had to convert our starting TE to OT and our starting FB to MLB while rotating true freshmen at the SLB position to play alongside our "veteran" starting WLB, Shazier, who is a true sophomore. If you can show me worse depth issues at Michigan I'll gladly retract my comment about us having "similar" depth issues.
I do not believe your issues are the result of poor recruiting. All of your defensive players that committed were highly ranked and coveted by everyone. Busts happen, but many times it can be attributed to things that cannot be measured, such as a player not picking up on the defense, not transitioning well to the rigors of college, unforseen outside influences, etc. You have plenty of talent on your team.
As far as depth issues over the years at Michigan:
2008 - Three o-lineman graduate and one jumps ship to play for Ohio. Best WRs both leave early leaving us with 1 wide receiver with any meaningful playing time. Quarterbacks were non-existent once Ryan Mallet transferred out. Only options were a Georgia Tech transfer and a walk-on...
2009 - Most underclassmen on the two-deep roster in the nation. Nine true freshmen or red-shirt freshmen starters, including a walk-on. Linebackers were made up of converted safeties and receivers weighing 210 lbs. Middle LB backup was air.
2010 - Starting safety and corner injured, forced to play freshmen converted quarterback and receiver.
2011 - Two walk-ons on our d-line rotation. Couldn't run 2 TE sets unless we used a converted DE.
Also, terrible defensive coaching and zero player development of our back 7 for three years to boot. We went 3-9, 5-7, and 7-6 in those three years. Your 9-0 record after a coaching transition does not compare.
Next year they also play only Cal in non-conference (with apparently one game to be scheduled) and miss MSU and Nebraska. If Penn State implodes as expected their only difficult B1G games are Wisco and Michigan.
Ohio could be perfectly mediocre and still undefeated or with a single loss by for The Game.
Vandy bailed on us.
'Tis far better to have failed at Michigan than to have graduated from Ohio State.
In all important facets of life, we are better than OSU.
Probably not. But I like our chances with Hoke and Denard vs Urban Legend and Miller.
I think our defense will by pumped for the Game, but unless our offensive unit begins to make progress in the next three weeks, this could come down to Gibbons' leg. I think moving forward though, the O-line depth (or lack thereoff) at tsiO, will become a critical issue if it isn't addressed quickly.
Both teams are going to come out pumped up for this game, and it'll be closer than most people think. If you made me guess right now, I'd say OSU wins by less than a TD, simply because its a home game for them. I don't really buy into the whole "this is their bowl game" crap. This is our most important game, too. Given how close some of OSU's games have been this year, a UMich win wouldn't surprise me.
I'd say both of these teams are on even playing fields right now. I think their offense is much more balanced, but our defense is better than theirs. One way or another, should make for one hell of a matchup.
game will be will depend entirely on if OSU can hit the deep passes that were WIDE open last year.
It could be close or a rout.
If Michigan had an explosive passing offense, I think Ohio State would be toast. Except Michigan doesn't.
Defense: Michigan might have a slight edge here. That edge might be razor sharp if only Ohio were a passing team. Except their not.
Rushing Yards: Ohio 33rd, Michigan 52nd (1,005 yds vs. 1,161 yds)
Passing Yards: Ohio 119th, Michigan 1st (2,501 yds vs 1,162 yrds)
Scoring Def: Ohio 50th, Michigan 14th (28 pts vs. 17 pts/gm)
Offense: Ohio has a significant advantage in my opinion
Scoring: Ohio 21st, Michigan 64th (38.6 pts vs. 28 pts/gm)
Rushing: Ohio 7th, Michigan 29th (2231 yds vs. 1653 yrds)
Passing: Ohio 88th, Michigan 110th (1655 yds vs 1372 yrds)
1st downs: It's pretty even at 19 to 20 per game for both teams
3rd D Conv %: Ohio 44.7%, Michigan 47.3%
Borges could set up Denard to succeed big time in this game with the right calls and if Denard can "stay on target".
I don't think either team will run the ball effectively in this game.
Turnovers (INTs!), penalties and special teams play will dictate the outcome of a close game.
I don't think Ohio is unbeaten heading in to the Michigan game.. They've got too much historical bad mojo vs. Wisconsin in Madison, in what will be the Badgers' last home game of the season and a must-win for UW to get to the title game.
I think "staying on target" is always the question. I think Borges called up an agressive plan against Notre Dame. While Michigan was moving the ball against a very good defense, the turnovers killed us. I think the agressiveness lead to the turnovers (besides some really stupid throws). Against Nebraska, our offense couldn't move the ball well because we were so conservative.
So what do you want? conservative playcalling that barely moves the ball? or agressive playcalling that moves the ball, but is mistake prone?
I'd rather unleash Denard and live with the potential mistakes.
Don't have to be; just have to be better than them in a month.
That is so very true. There is a month of football and injuries and exposed weaknesses in the mean time can really be what sets the game.
I am picking Michigan to win but I am not actually putting my paycheck on it.
Let's hope the offense can find another gear or at least a gear period, before the game
I think the teams are fairly equal if both have their #1 QB's. If either has to go to the bench, though, there is a severe degradation of the "sample."
I disagree. In the Purdue game, Guiton showed he could step in and keep the offense moving. He's managed to score on almost every possession he's been under center for. Now, would I want him starting over Braxton? No, but if Braxton were, God forbid, to get hurt early on, I'm confident that Kenny G. could keep the offense moving smoothly.
I bet if we were to go back a year ago and reread the boards after the Iowa loss, there's probably a thread exactly like this. Talking about how our Offense is doomed and OSU is gonna kill us
Ohio St sucked last year and couldn't complete a forward pass before they played us.
Still, this whole sky is falling mentality regarding our offense is fucking stupid. If Denard had played all 4 quarters and we still had the same result, then yeah I would be worried. But as long as Denard is healthy, I see no reason why we shouldn't beat OSU
If the game were being played in Ann Arbor, I'd agree 100% with you.
You may see no difference between playing at home and playing on the road—especially against OSU—but Michigan's record speaks for itself in that regard. Michigan has yet to prove it can beat a quality team in their stadium under Hoke.
Our Defense is light years better then Ohio's defense. Our offense isn't as good as ohio's offense. They say that great defense wins championships, so yes I would say that we can beat ohio.
Plus we have the "we've never had TerreLOLe Pryor on our roster" factor in our favor. We are better. MIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIICH
Before Nebraska, I would have said we get the edge. After Nebraksa, Michigan has shown to be inept on offense against better defenses (this has been the case for the past several years!!!). OSU ranks pretty good in run defense and terribly in pass defense. What does Mich like to do? Run. I was pretty confidene that Michigan woudl win against Nebraka with our defense getting better, but now, I have very little confidence.
Having said that, we almost beat Notre Dame... but they are overrated.
How long are we gonna keep saying "Notre Dame is overrated". In a year where a lot of people were picking them to have 4+ losses (maybe even 6), they've gone undefeated, and have a great shot to have a perfect season
Someone has to balance out the homer that is Lou Holtz.
And that streak isn't going to change this year, even if Denard is healthy. Our record at home under Hoke is still unblemished, but on the road it's a different story (like it is for most teams). During the regular season under Brady Hoke, Michigan has not once gone on the road and beaten a team with a winning record for the season. Our mediocre offense (6th and 7th in scoring and total offense, respectively in the conference) does not support our excellent defense, and that's a killer on the road against potent offenses, which OSU has.
A critical aspect of our mediocre offense is that outside of Denard, we have no running game of any consequence, while OSU has two of the top ten rushers in the conference in Miller and Hyde.
Big Ten statistics here: http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-footbl/stats/2012-2013/confstat.html
How about we let the next coupel of games play out before we start comparing UM to OSU.
If you look at records, yes they are better than us. They found a way to come from behind in an improbably situation and win with their backup QB on the road, and we...well imploded. We have a similar style of QBs. Our defense has been more consistent, but theirs seems to play well in big games like MSU and PSU. If you look at our common opponents, they beat MSU 17-16, we beat them 12-10. They beat Nebraska 68-38, we lost 23-9. They beat Purdue 29-22 in OT, we beat them 44-13. What does that tell you? IDK
It seems to me that their offense is more consistent and our defense is more consistent. But, I do think they have the talent on defense to win as is evident in their big games. They obviously haven't played a top 10 team like ND or Bama. I may get negged for this but ultimately I think they beat us this year because of our lack of consistency on offense and even more so on the road. But, I also think we would beat them at home. So, I really have no idea, who is a better team as we are both good at some things, and deficient at others.
Winning with their backup QB on the road? What game are you talking about?