Aquaman plus Analyst Crystal Ballz Matches for UM

Submitted by Minus The Houma on

Aquaman (Steve Lorenz of 247 sports) dropped by to give us a little note on the crystal ball tool of 247 sports. He dropped the following quote "Usually the given team writer's pick + national analysts almost always = probably what's going to happen." I thought it was rather interesting so I decided to look into it a little more.

On the 2016 UM Targets 247 page I checked in on all the uncommitted targets under the Top Target and High Choice category.  

The anaylysts and writers who came up as national guys or insiders for the Michigan site are:

Ryan Bartow - National Recruiting Insider

JC Shurburtt - National Analyst

Steve Wiltfong - Director of Recruiting

Clint Brewster - Recruiting Insider, Wolverine 247

Steve Lorenz - Michigan Insider, Wolvering 247

Kipp Adams - National Analyst

Barton Simmons - National Recruiting Analyst

 

Targets = probably what's going to happen

Rashan Gary - Bartow + Wiltfong + Adams + Simmons + Lorenz + Brewster. Note, Shurburtt has a pick in for Clemson made 4/23/15

David Long - Wiltfong + Brewster + Simmons. All these picks were made today. Lorenz has Stanford and Bartow has Washington.

Dylan Crawford - Wiltfong + Lorenz + Bartow+ Simmons

Lavert Hill - Wiltfong + Brewster + Lorenz + Simmons

Jonathan Jones - Shurburtt + Lorenz + Bartow + Wiltfong

Pie Young - Lorenz + Brewster + Bartow +Wiltfong

 

Pitchforks will be made available promptly after signing day and we will shall take on Aquaman if any of this doesn't pan out.

http://michigan.247sports.com/Season/2016-Football/Targets

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rockydude

January 7th, 2016 at 12:08 AM ^

If these picks happen correctly, that would be our complete class, wouldn't it? Not too shabby considering that the world had left us for dead a year ago. All hail Harbaugh!

Joined: 05/06/2011

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michgoblue

January 7th, 2016 at 7:15 AM ^

Vic has an awesome name, an apparently awesome work ethic and just an awesome way about him (as much as you can tell from online workout videos and interviews). He is definitely the type of guy that you want on your team. But, at the same time, there are guys that are way higher rated at the position that they will play in college that we have a shot with. Given our numbers crunch, I would actually rather see the spot go to any of the guys listed by the OP (or any of the reach prospects listed in Mr. Yost's post further up this thread). If we were to get Vic back, we would have to turn one of those guys away.

Joined: 11/16/2009

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alum96

January 7th, 2016 at 9:58 AM ^

sample size and all but McDoom aquitted himslef well last wek

With 4 of these spots "Gary takies 1 (even if lands elsweebe... and Long.... maybe another, 3-5 people coutple fof ryemainingn spots.

My pevsonel view is if a lot of te 10 guys come in and want in it will some squiley stiff in the last month.

Joined: 04/28/2012

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StephenRKass

January 7th, 2016 at 12:25 AM ^

We currently have 23 commits. There is a hard cap of 28 (3 backdated, plus 25). Harbaugh has said we will take 27 this year. That means four more spots. So we have to find room for two more if all six you mention commit.

And we have to make room for any higher rated recruit. Some possibilities:

  • Greg Little, OL.
  • Dontavious Jackson, ILB.
  • Isaac Nauta, TE.
  • Levi Onwuzurike, DE.
  • Jordan Fuller, CB.
  • Khaleke Hudson, S.
  • Mecole Hardman, S.

I think it is quite possible that one or two of the above additional list actually commit to Michigan. This is definitely a nice, first world problem to have. Too many good recruits!

Joined: 07/15/2008

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Mr. Yost

January 7th, 2016 at 4:38 AM ^

Or did he just throw shit against a wall and it happened to stick?

How hard is it to take a random guess at something and be different from most everyone else? Were people going to remember if he was wrong? Probably not...it's not like he's Kirk Herbstreit and this is the Les Miles situation.

You have to show consistency if you're an "insider" or "expert." To me, he's just a guy who made a guess and happened to get it right and people give him too much credit for it.

Yesterday I said we were going 13-0 next year. Why? Because no one is going to remember in Decemeber except me (if it happens). I'm just a guy who took a guess at something. I also said Harbaugh was coming to Michigan back in early Decemeber when people were freaking out about how long it was taking to fire Hoke. But it was truly me spewing nonsense at the tmie and making a prediction based on indicactors I felt made sense at the time.

Hell, just 5 minutes ago, below...I made a prediction on how we'd finish our recruiting class. If I hit it 100% nail on the head. I didn't know anything more than anyone else. I just guessed based on certain factors.

To me an "insider" or "expert" is someone who has inside information. They've got sources or have spoken directly to people involved with the situation. The know more than premium message more content.

Joined: 07/25/2011

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StephenRKass

January 7th, 2016 at 8:55 AM ^

I completely agree. From my perspective, I can do nothing but speculate. So, I just don't worry about it. Between Harbaugh, his staff, the recruits themselves and their parents and advisors, they'll come to their various decisions. 

As I reflect on where kids go, I suspect that the strength of the home life and the community plays a role as to whether or not they want to stay closer to home. That's too simplistic. There are all kinds of other factors involved. But if you've got a great family, a nice house, a nice neighborhood, love where you're from, I could see many kids wanting to keep that. I just read something on Michael Ferns, and how WVa was a better fit, because his family and relatives were so much closer. And even the culture there felt more like "home." Conversely, if someone is coming from a pretty troubled home or community, I could see some kids really wanting to make a break, and get a completely fresh start somewhere else.

As regards the guys I listed, thanks (to you and others) for underscoring the info on Little. Would have loved to have him, but one can dream. As for the rest of them, yeah, it'd be great to get any of them, but I think one or two of Hudson, Fuller, and Onwuzurike are the most likely. I'd be pretty surprised to see Nauta, Jackson, or Hardman come to Michigan. Nauta is one of those where I think family and community play a huge role. And I just haven't heard a lot of positive feedback as regards Jackson and Hardman. Well, at least the coaches are swinging for the fences and trying to bring in the best.

Joined: 07/15/2008

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Mr Miggle

January 7th, 2016 at 7:53 AM ^

not when you can add greyshirts that count as part of the next class. It's futile trying to work out the numbers exactly. People mention that we may lose one or two current commits, but that number is no more than a wild guess. My own wild guess is that it's on the low side and that around signing day we'll add one or two players not on your list to fill the class.

 

Joined: 10/07/2010

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San Diego Mick

January 7th, 2016 at 12:13 AM ^

man recruiting is so tough to follow sometimes and I've been doing it since 1975 but here I am like a little kid desperate for any info and I will never change my attitude!

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Kewaga.

January 7th, 2016 at 7:52 AM ^

Hillcrest, North Park and maybe Balboa Park.... That area kinda reminds me of the Royal Oak and Ferndale areas of Metro Detroit respectively.

 

Was planning on moving to San Diego in 2008, had my license to practice in CA and just about to buy my plane ticket... had checked out all of the areas to move.  About a 2 weeks before I was going to leave... the stock market crashed.

 

It is SO expensive though, so instead chose to stay in Royal Oak... have a great place I couldn't afford in S.D., save for retirement, Michigan Football games and travel.

Joined: 02/06/2015

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schreibee

January 7th, 2016 at 3:38 PM ^

Who were we recruiting in '75? Anthony Carter?

I have followed the team closely since the '69 osu upset (was going to games even before that but was too young to really follow the players names) - but I don't remember following recruiting closely until the "modern era" when the internet & the advent of Rivals etc made the info so available.

Before that no one knew which coach was flying where to recruit an out of state kid (as Bo did with AC); before Twitter et al, no one knew which kids had been offered by who, the favorites of any given kid, etc.

I remember when the Annual Season preview yearbook would out - before our beloved blog here began HTTV - and the back section would be a review of all the top players in the B1G footprint and which schools were favored to get wihich kids. This was all written in black & white, and I looked forward to that to familiarize myself with our region's top HS talent and figure out who I thought we should pursue. (Selwyn Lyman anyone?!)

This was way way back in like... 2002!!!!!

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