Anyone taking those 20/1 odds on UM winning the MBB title?
Not much of a gambling man, but with Michigan currently given the 11th best odds at 20/1 I'm considering slappin a few bucks down. Our odds will probably improve once the bracket is finalized, just wondering if anyone has or will take the odds on this right now.
Also, where do you guys place your bets?
March 11th, 2014 at 12:33 PM ^
I might before the bracket is finalized. I don't see how anyone outside of a huge MSU homer can lay down a penny on MSU's 10/1 odds of winning it all. You're asking a team to win 6 straight games against good to great teams when they haven't won back to back games in 2 months against bad and good teams.
To be fair, Michigan was 6-6 in their last 12 entering the tournament. Do I think Michigan State will reach the championship game? Nope. But you can go into the tournament ice cold and be just fine.
We were also a top 10 team all year.
Vegas' goal is to make money, not to give the most accurate team rankings possible. The bookmakers know that MSU is likely to be a hot tournament bet given their overperformance in the past, so they're making the payout on MSU lower than it actually should be at this point (given MSU's play of late) as a result.
If the games are called like B1G games, then State has a chance to win a few games. If they're called the way they're supposed to be, MSU could be looking at an early departure (and an awesome, on-camera breakdown from Izzo). The difference in officiating favors the non-grabby.
March 11th, 2014 at 12:33 PM ^
I have a Nigerian Prince that sends me e-mails every so often, I send my bets to him
When the son of the deposed king of Nigeria emails you directly, asking for help, you help! His father ran the freaking country! Ok?
March 11th, 2014 at 12:35 PM ^
Advice: Don't bet on State at 10-1
March 11th, 2014 at 12:47 PM ^
But they're finally healthy!!!
/s
(I wish this wasn't needed)
No, Harris sprained his ankle a little bit and you can't get any chemistry if the refs keep half your team on the bench. (Not a parody - Izzo actually said in his presser after the Ohio game.)
That explains why Izzo spends 3/4 of the game ON the court. It's only fair to his wounded warrior team.
This is a naive question, but can you bet the other side of these futures bets? For example, bet on Sparty not to win the title and get 1:10 odds? THAT seems like a bet worth considering.
I though about this too. But even if you could...do you really want to put up 10,000 just to win a near-sure $1,000? You can earn 10% easier(and in most states more legally) just by investing.
If you invest it, you're not going to lose ALL of it. You bet it, and there is a remote chance you lose it all.
Your equity in that bet would be ridiculously high. If you hedged by taking MSU on the money line in the individual games, you could probably guarantee yourself a profit. I don't think you would even need to hedge until after the sweet sixteen.
He was telling everyone to invest because "the stock's never been cheaper." And then
Point being, any "investment" that you think is going to earn you 10%/month probably carries a fair bit of risk.
#Enron #Globalcrossing
That's why they don't offer the other side.
I'm not a gambler (and not a trader either), but it seems like there could be a secondary market where you could "short" a bet just like a stock. As I understand shorting stock (and I'm no expert), I would find someone who wants to bet on MSU at 10:1, and "lease" the bet (i.e., pay $ to hold onto it for some period of time) with the requirement that the other guy has to buy it back at some point in the future after the contest. If they win it all, he gets the pay out plus the money you paid for the lease. If they lose, he has to pay you the value of the bet when he got it.
Por ejemplo: You bet $50 on MSU at 10:1. I pay you $10 and you give me the rights to the winnings. I hold onto the bet until the day after the tournament with the requirement that you buy it back for $50 if they lose. If MSU wins it all, then the day after the tourney I give you the winning bet back ($500). Rather than a $500 payout, you get $510 (winnings, plus $10 lease fee). If they lose, then I get $40 ($50, less the $10 lease fee).
The numbers would need to be adjusted to make it fair to both sides (i.e., $10 upside wouldn't be enough), but you get the point.
That wouldn't make you a trader or a gambler...that would make you a bookie.
but your example doesn't make any sense to me. I'm getting 10-1 from someone else when I bet MSU and you offer to make me an extra bet at 1-5? If you know someone who will bet you you can simply lay him the 10-1 odds. It seems like you're trying to make an anology with writing stock options, but that's doomed to fail.
I do think there could be a secondary market. If you bet Indiana at 500 - 1 and they make the final four, perhaps you would like to sell part of your action.
March 11th, 2014 at 12:38 PM ^
March 11th, 2014 at 12:39 PM ^
I tend to believe odds like these are set intentionally to shift money around. I'd assume they're trying to entice people to pick Michigan with these ... interesting odds.
March 11th, 2014 at 12:45 PM ^
March 11th, 2014 at 12:56 PM ^
actually, it depends...
some pros wait for the line to shift and then bet at the last minute...
I don't particularily like us at 11-1 for good reasons (defense, cold shooting night) and bad reasons (to replicate last years run would require a lot of luck from the cosmos)...
State at 10-1 is a suckers bet. They should be closer to 20-1
March 11th, 2014 at 12:47 PM ^
March 11th, 2014 at 12:50 PM ^
I don't bet money, but will be picking them in my $1B bracket from Quicken Loans.
March 11th, 2014 at 12:54 PM ^
I hate placing futures bets. I'd rather put 3-4 bets on them as they advance through the tournament.
I bet on Bovada, btw.
March 11th, 2014 at 12:57 PM ^
Those odds are actually surprisingly good for a projected 2 seed. I would've expected them to be anywhere between 10/1 or 15/1 at the most, though I'd imagine the odds will eventually drop down to that come the actual start of the tourney.
I normally go to Vegas the week of the tourney every year and place my bet at the Paris sportsbook. Yeah, it's not the best sportsbook in Vegas, but that's where I've done it every minus 1 since 2006. The only time I've ever won money on a tourney bet there was few years back on my 15/1 payout thanks to UConn. Unfortunately, the new baby is making this year's first week of the tourney a staycation for me...
Yes.
I took them at 30:1 last fall.
After the 8-4 start and McGary going down, I forgot all about that bet :)
I threw down $5(I know, "high roller") in Vegas for our 75/1 Football Odds next year. Got to put that energy out there!
As anything can happen in the tourney, I wouldn't bet on any team to win it, even knowing that one has to. Guess I'm not a gambling man.
I must be missing something with MSU and Wisconsin. I would have put UM around 8-10/1 and State and Wiscy in the 25-30/1 range. I also think UNC is undervalued at 40/1. Of course, they are a team that could get upset in the first round or make a run to the final four. 55/1 for OSU seems about right - really aren't made for a run. Help is on the way next year, though.
UNC at 40/1 is probably the best value as of now. One of the few teams outside the top 10-15 that can win it all without much surprise.
Laid $10 on 25 to 1 before the season even began. Can finally take my baby girl to Red Lobster if Michigan comes through for me.
This is not strictly relevant to the Vegas odds for Michigan, but 20/1 sounds close to right historically for the 2-seeds in general. I think this was a couple years ago, but CollegeHoopsNet once did a historic analysis of the odds - by seed - of advancing and eventually winning, and I think it came in right around 4% for a 2-seed team to win it all by on historic averages (I think this study went back to 1985 too). The lowest seed with a projected chance greater than 1% was actually the 8-seed, I believe.
So hard to bet this year's tournament. Michigan could obliterate any team in the tournament with a performance like they had against Illinois or Nebraska 2 (or last year's Florida tournament game). Do we know other teams that play a Wisco-style pack line defense?
I'd definitely be on money lines for individual games.
Virginia?
Bennett's dad wrote the book on that.
please submit link of the list
I have had Michigan in Vegas (Mandalay) at 20-1. Go Blue!
Hell yea...I thought we were a Final Four team all year (even after the PSU loss). This year, heck no. I'd be happy to eat crow and be as wrong as wrong can be. But this tourney run is almost solely dependent on GR3 playing out of his mind because you know what you're going to get from everyone else. GR3 hasn't shown me he can put 6 amazing games together to win us a title. Again, I hope I'm wrong. Energy/Effort/Toughness...if he can get some of that, we've got a real shot.
I was in Vegas for a conference in November and bet Michigan 30-1 to win it all. Now those odds are looking pretty sweet.
I am liking those odds right now!
However if we get into the Sweet 16, I think we will be on fire like couches in East Lansing.