Any thoughts on Houston in the Sugar Bowl ?

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November 27th, 2011 at 5:59 PM
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rockydude
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Any thoughts on Houston in the Sugar Bowl ?

I know I'm kind of putting the cart ahead of the horse here, but right now, smart money says Michigan goes to the Sugar Bowl, where we will play Houston.

Anybody have any clever thoughts about Houston? They are undefeated. but I really haven't followed them. They strike me as one of those small conference teams that has a gimmicky passing offense that works when they play bottom dwellers. (they've played TWO teams with a winning record IIRC) 

I'd like to think that we can just get in there and manhandle them a bit. I don't see them stopping Fitz, and I guarantee you they've not faced an athlete like Denard.

Again though, I really don't know this Houston team that well. Anyone out there want to chip in with a few thoughts?

"Underwear Wearing Basement Dweller"

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November 27th, 2011 at 6:07 PM | I think Mattison will have a (Score:5 Normal)
JohnnyBlue
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I think Mattison will have a field day.

November 27th, 2011 at 6:07 PM | #beatohio #rememberthefive (Score:5 Normal)
.ghost.
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#beatohio

#rememberthefive

Guaranteed Keenum hasn't seen a D-line like ours.  He won't be getting too much time back there (granted I know nothing about Houston's O-line; they are still going to get curb stomped)

"And they'll never catch him!"

November 27th, 2011 at 6:08 PM | Keenum has thrown for 4000+ (Score:5 Normal)
jaysvw
Joined: 09/27/2008
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Keenum has thrown for 4000+ this year.  Yesterday we got lit up by one of the worst passing teams in the country.  My brain says they haven't played anyone of substance so no big deal.  My gut says unless we fix whatever happened in the Ohio game, Keenum is going to demolish our secondary. 

November 27th, 2011 at 6:15 PM | We got lit up because we had (Score:5 Normal)
go16blue
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We got lit up because we had to commit to stopping a great run offense, and a great scrambling QB. If we play Houston, we will be able to commit 7 people to coverage every single down, and go crazy with non-gap sound blitzes, knowing that we can stone their rushing offense with out front 4. Not to mention I don't think Houston has a WR as good as Posey, who was really the one reason we kept getting beat on double moves (which is fixable, btw).

COYS and lets go Detroit FC!

November 27th, 2011 at 6:24 PM | I would add that Houston does (Score:2 Informative)
Derek
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I would add that Houston does not have the talent that OSU does on the offensive line. We would be able to get pressure on blitzes that were less successful on Saturday. Moreover, Case Keenum does not have Braxton Miller's feet.

LSA, Class of 2009

November 27th, 2011 at 6:44 PM | Patrick Edwards is good. (Score:2)
jrt336
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Patrick Edwards is good.

November 27th, 2011 at 7:34 PM | posted from iPhone (Score:1)
MgoJohnStamos
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Wisconsin broke down pretty bad on the game winner. It was as bad as our coverage.

I don't know who's hair is better, John Stamos circa Full House or Denard

GO BLUE

November 27th, 2011 at 9:08 PM | Srsly. I've watched at very (Score:2)
mgobleu
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Srsly. I've watched at very least, pieces and parts of every ohio game this year, and large chunks of most of them. Somehow, miller made throws on Saturday that he hasn't hit all year. Granted, he took a lot of what Michigan gave him, but credit where credit is due; he practically had a breakout game yesterday. If he played all year like he did this weekend, they might be closer to 10 wins themselves.

November 27th, 2011 at 6:53 PM | I agree. If we can pressure (Score:2)
Kaminski16
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I agree. If we can pressure the quarterback without blitzing, then we'll win this game. 

See it through.

November 27th, 2011 at 6:20 PM | we put our corners on (Score:1 Normal)
JohnnyBlue
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we put our corners on islands, thru 8 people in the box every down, of course we had issues.  

Against a team like houston you basically tell your dline kill the qb, they don't have to worry about containment or keeping in there lanes, we may get gashed for a few runs here and there but houston ain't going to beat you on the ground.  Keenum may be a good QB, but I have a hard time beleaving that there Oline can stop our Dline, he is going to have alot more pressure in his face than he has ever seen.

November 27th, 2011 at 9:29 PM | CBs (Score:1)
umchicago
Joined: 02/05/2009
MGoPoints: 3532

i was at the game, so maybe i need to watch the replay, but i think overall the CBs did ok, except for floyd getting burned toward the end, but thanks for the over throw.

it was the safeties, imo, that failed miserably.  their blown coverages on the two big TDs was about half of OSUs passing yardage.  that is really disappointing considering we have a 5th year senior back there.  they haven't given up big plays all year.  then, boom, two in one game.  i doubt it happens again.

then, it was the LBs late in the game who gave up back-to-back big plays by letting the TEs get behind them. 

November 29th, 2011 at 4:12 AM | We WILL get burned for a (Score:1)
Sugaloaf
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We WILL get burned for a couple long ones, I guarantee it.  But eventually he's going to get destroyed by Martin, Van Bergen, et al.

Oh, and Denard/Fitzkrieg will run wild.

Class of '97.  Missed it by that much.

November 27th, 2011 at 6:08 PM | What would it take for the Sugar to pick Stanford over Michigan? (Score:2)
State Street
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For those who know the selection process better than I: is it within the realm of possibility for the Sugar bowl (with first at-large selection) to pick Stanford over Michigan?

Stanford has 1 loss, to our 2.  They also have Andrew Luck.

is it possible the Sugar picks Stanford first?

November 27th, 2011 at 6:19 PM | Conventional thought is that (Score:1 Normal)
justingoblue
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Conventional thought is that Stanford's fanbase won't travel well to New Orleans, while M is a known quantity. The Sugar Bowl committee is looking at a guaranteed sellout and good TV ratings with Michigan, not so much with Stanford.

On top of that, they need a big name in their bowl because they'll be taking either Houston or the BE champ with their next pick (they pick first and second to last). I'd bet anything that Michigan gets picked first for the Sugar, followed by Stanford in the FIesta, assuming we finish in the top-fourteen which seems pretty certain at this point.

Go Blue!

November 27th, 2011 at 6:09 PM | I hope not... (Score:2 Normal)
Sven_Da_M
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.... but if we do meet them there, we will boat-race them.  As in hang a 50-spot on them and give up a couple of touchdowns.

I give them credit, and the QB is awesome against inferior competition, but they've played no one...

The two closest games were UTEP and UCLA (5-7 and 6-6). 

HC Kevin Sumlin may not be around to coach in the bowl game.

 

 

November 27th, 2011 at 6:09 PM | Keenum (Score:2 Normal)
KC Wolve
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Is legit, but I think MM and RVB should have a field day. They will still score.



45-28 Michigan.

November 27th, 2011 at 6:36 PM | Keenum (Score:2)
Derek
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Kevin Kolb legit or actually legit?

LSA, Class of 2009

November 27th, 2011 at 6:10 PM | If we are lucky enough to (Score:1)
FreddieMercuryHayes
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If we are lucky enough to play in a BCS bowl, and Houston is our opponent, I think it will be impairative we establish the running game.  You may call it gimmicky, but Keanum has the ability to pick us apart, and we need to keep him on the sideline.  That will be the key.   I'm not really familiar with their D, but I'm assuming we'll be able to run the ball.  Honestly, I don't like this match-up.  Everybody will be expecting us to win, so a win means we just beat a C-USA team, but a loss is big upset no matter how many games they may have won.  Wasn't Georgia over Hawaii like the only one of these non-AQ team BCS games to actually turn out like everyone expected?

November 27th, 2011 at 6:10 PM | One-back passing spread (Score:2)
EGD
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Here is a Smart Football article about their offensive scheme.  It's the one-back passing spread that coaches like Dennis Erickson and Mike Price have had success with.

 

"You will suffer humiliation when the team from my area defeats the team from your area." -- The Onion

November 27th, 2011 at 6:10 PM | They beat UCLA, a very good (Score:2 Normal)
david from wyoming
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They beat UCLA, a very good Tulsa team and a decent SMU team. Houston deserves a BCS spot and shouldn't be taken lightly. Their passing stats may be 'gimmicky' to some people but they can score points better than anyone this year, averaging 50+ points a game.

Are you a park ranger at Yellowstone? Say hi to Yogi Bear for me. - the_big_house 500th

I may not be a 70 year old man. - Herm

November 27th, 2011 at 6:16 PM | "They beat UCLA, a very good (Score:5 Normal)
go16blue
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"They beat UCLA, a very good Tulsa team and a decent SMU team."

"Houston deserves a BCS spot and shouldn't be taken lightly."

Does not compute.

COYS and lets go Detroit FC!

November 27th, 2011 at 6:18 PM | They won every game on their (Score:1 Overrated)
david from wyoming
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They won every game on their schedule. Why should they not get a BCS berth? What else can they do this year?

Are you a park ranger at Yellowstone? Say hi to Yogi Bear for me. - the_big_house 500th

I may not be a 70 year old man. - Herm

November 27th, 2011 at 6:22 PM | I'm with you there, and I (Score:2)
go16blue
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I'm with you there, and I think if a team goes undefeated they should be given a shot, but I dont think anyone can reasonably defend their stength of schedule.

COYS and lets go Detroit FC!

November 27th, 2011 at 6:25 PM | The BCS is as crooked as they (Score:1 Normal)
His Dudeness
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The BCS is as crooked as they get. Putting us in over MSU because we are a better draw sets a bad precedent in my opinion. It takes away the value of an actual win on the field which is the entire point of the game. The BCS needs to go. Money everywhere and a bunch of greasy fingers on every cent of it. It's sick.

or uh, Duder, or El Duderino if you're not into the whole brevity thing.

November 27th, 2011 at 6:43 PM | Your scenario won't happen (Score:2 Normal)
ATLWolverine
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If they lose to Wisconsin they will undoubtedly drop below us, and Sugar selecting us is perfectly fine by the polls. If they win, they will get auto-picked for the Rose Bowl. No problems.

--

"the team, the team, the team."

November 27th, 2011 at 6:46 PM | MSU would have three losses in your scenario (Score:1)
SalvatoreQuattro
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How can a three loss team get a invite over a two loss team? And UM's loss to MSU was at MSU and was decided late in the game. MSU would not have a leg to stand on if they should lose next week.

"The Ruhr will not be subjected to a single bomb. If an enemy bomber reaches the Ruhr, my name is not Hermann Göring: you can call me Urban Meyer!"

November 27th, 2011 at 6:46 PM | If MSU loses the Big Ten (Score:2 Normal)
Gorgeous Borges
Joined: 10/07/2011
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If MSU loses the Big Ten Championship Game, they will probably not be ranked in the top 14. If we got to the BCS, we will be ranked in the top 14. Their record would be worse than ours, at 10-3 to our 10-2. I don't think that's unfair at all if we would go over them.

November 27th, 2011 at 6:49 PM | If anything, it's pretty (Score:1)
Gorgeous Borges
Joined: 10/07/2011
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If anything, it's pretty unfair that we would go over Arkansas, South Carolina, or Stanford. But MSU isn't the team getting screwed by the BCS here. They've got a shot at the Rose Bowl, and they would have a shot at other BCS bowls too if they hadn't lost to Notre Dame and Nebraska.

November 27th, 2011 at 6:59 PM | I didn't even think about the (Score:1 Normal)
His Dudeness
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I didn't even think about the record after the B1G championship game. Good point.

 

or uh, Duder, or El Duderino if you're not into the whole brevity thing.

November 27th, 2011 at 6:48 PM | Even if you take the head-to-head loss into account (Score:2 Insightful)
coastal blue
Joined: 11/13/2010
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MSU still got beat twice on the road by 18 and 21 points. It would hardly be a crime if we - a team that lost narrowly twice on the road - got in over them. Granted we lost to them and have a worse loss in Iowa, we've still never been embarassed like they were against both Nebraksa and Notre Dame. 

November 27th, 2011 at 6:56 PM | Oh, man (Score:1 Normal)
Mr Miggle
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There's is no realistic scenario where we get picked ahead of MSU because we're a better draw. If they win, they're in the Rose Bowl. If they lose they won't be ranked high enough to be eligible for a BCS bowl. That rule is in place to prevent the kind of moneygrubbing shenaningans you decry. No high profile team outside the top 14 gets to leapfrog their way in. The most likely scenario will see the Sugar and Fiesta bowls picking 3 teams out of 4 that are eligible. Houston is guaranteed a spot, one of UM, Stanford and Boise will get left out.

Eating is murder.

November 27th, 2011 at 7:11 PM | if it screws over sparty, i (Score:2 Normal)
Professor X
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if it screws over sparty, i am all for the bcs. 

November 27th, 2011 at 7:29 PM | Assuming msu loses in the B1G Championship ... (Score:1)
Indiana Blue
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the computers will have Michigan ranked higher than msu.  Yeah the BCS is nothing much more than a beauty pageant with a lot more $$$ on the line.

Go Blue! 

No place on earth I'd rather be on a football Saturday than Michigan Stadium !

November 27th, 2011 at 6:46 PM | No (Score:2 Normal)
coastal blue
Joined: 11/13/2010
MGoPoints: 1791

They shouldn't. 

They have played zero good teams this year. 

If you take the other BCS non-AQ schools from year's past, they all at least tried to toughen up their schedules (Boise playing Oregon, Virginia Tech, Oregon State, Georgia, etc.) or at least played in a conference with two other legit teams (TCU, Utah, BYU) on top of a few AQ teams in their non-conference slate. 

Houston won one game against a UCLA team that has been mediocre/bad for years - so unlike Utah who had Michigan on the schedule when Michigan was 3-9 after Michigan had been successful in the recent past -  and they barely edged it. It reminds me so much of Hawaii in 2007, when they narrowly beat a 4-8 Washington team in their last game to go undefeated for the right to get stomped by Georgia. 

Even if our secondary isn't quite what Georgia's was in 2007 and even if Keenum and co. are better than Hawaii, our offense should score at will. 

I would expect something along the lines of 45-20 against Houston. 

November 27th, 2011 at 6:41 PM | Dispute (Score:2 Normal)
ATLWolverine
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UCLA is a disaster this year and has been shellacked by 5 TD margins against multiple opponents (Houston won by less than a TD). Tulsa has beaten no one. SMU has 5 losses, including against the Southern Miss Golden Eagles.

Case Keenum is definitely a good QB, but you're definitely exaggerating the quality of their schedule.

--

"the team, the team, the team."

November 27th, 2011 at 7:26 PM | No way it happens but... (Score:0 Redundant)
November 27th, 2011 at 6:10 PM | The third time is the charm... (Score:3 Normal)
Tater
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I've said it twice already, but since Houston now has its own thread, I'll say it again.  Houston has played a weak schedule.  They have not played anyone as fast or physically tough as Michigan yet.  

Here is what they did:

 

1 Sat., Sep 3 UCLA W 38-34 1-0
2 Sat., Sep 10 @North Texas W 48-23 2-0
3 Sat., Sep 17 @Louisiana Tech W 35-34 3-0
4 Sat., Sep 24 Georgia State W 56-0 4-0
5 Thur., Sep 29 @UTEP W 49-42 5-0
6 Sat., Oct 8 East Carolina W 56-3 6-0
8 Sat., Oct 22 Marshall W 63-28 7-0
9 Thur., Oct 27 Rice W 73-34 8-0
10 Sat., Nov 5 @UAB W 56-13 9-0
11 Thur., Nov 10 @Tulane W 73-17 10-0
12 Sat., Nov 19 Southern Methodist W 37-7 11-0
13 Fri., Nov 25 @Tulsa W 48-16 12-0

SMU and UCLA had disappointing years, and they were really the best teams Houston faced.  Nobody else is any good.  This is a schedule full of tomato cans.  They don't deserve a BCS bowl, and hopefully Michigan is the team that gets to show them why.

If Michigan is lucky enough to get this team in a BCS bowl, it will be the best break they have gotten in years.  

 

 

 

November 27th, 2011 at 6:15 PM | How is Tulsa not a good team? (Score:1 Overrated)
david from wyoming
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How is Tulsa not a good team? They lost to Oklahoma on the road, Oklahoma State, Boise State on the road and Houston. Everyone else they beat by at least two possessions.

Are you a park ranger at Yellowstone? Say hi to Yogi Bear for me. - the_big_house 500th

I may not be a 70 year old man. - Herm

November 27th, 2011 at 6:23 PM | C'mon.... (Score:4 Normal)
Sven_Da_M
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... the (allegedly) best team Tulsa beat outside of Tulsa is UCF. 

UCF is 5-7.

Mattison will bring the house against Case.

Keenum closed.

 

November 27th, 2011 at 6:31 PM | Showing (Score:3 Normal)
ATLWolverine
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that a team has many losses against good teams does not prove that they are a good team, it proves that they lose to good teams.

--

"the team, the team, the team."

November 27th, 2011 at 6:54 PM | SMU (Score:1)
Tom .NTT.
Joined: 09/04/2011
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Am I missing something?  They have not played Southern Miss yet.

November 27th, 2011 at 7:14 PM | SMU is Southern Methodist, (Score:1)
Slim_Hype
Joined: 01/21/2011
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SMU is Southern Methodist, not Southern Miss,

Meh....

November 27th, 2011 at 7:45 PM | Thank you.  That definitely (Score:1)
Tom .NTT.
Joined: 09/04/2011
MGoPoints: 508

Thank you.  That definitely clears this whole thing up for me.

November 27th, 2011 at 7:24 PM | It's hard to win all your games (Score:2 Normal)
maizemama
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Even if they are cupcakes.  And they are blowing people out.  I think all that data shows is that we don't know how good Houston is...

November 27th, 2011 at 7:42 PM | We know that half of their schedule (Score:1)
coastal blue
Joined: 11/13/2010
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is basically Minnesota pre-Iowa and that the best team they've faced - UCLA - would fall somewhere around Illinois' level. 

November 27th, 2011 at 8:24 PM | Never overlook any opponent. (Score:1)
BlueGoM
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Never overlook any opponent.   Remember The Horror.

Anyway, they've played 3 teams that are over .500 and two that are 6-6.  The other 7 opponents have losing records:

http://web1.ncaa.org/football/exec/rankingSummary?year=2011&org=288

I haven't seen them play but the passing numbers they are putting up is crazy, which is worrying.  After tsio passing on us Saturday I'd be concerned about the matchup of our secondary vs crazy passing team.

 

 

November 27th, 2011 at 6:12 PM | Their passing offense is (Score:5 Normal)
go16blue
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Their passing offense is legit, but keep in mind while our DBs were getting beat by OSU (Posey, specifically), that was because we were only commiting 4 players to the pass, while the front 7 were commited to the run. Houston has no run offense to speak of, and probably not a very good OL, so we should be able to stop their run with only our front 4. That means we can commit 7 to coverage every single down, and our DBs are good enough to stop anybody when they are that one sided.

On top of that, Mattison would probably have a field day with pressures. Not only would the Okie package be extremely effective (and useable on 1st and 2nd down), but  we wouldn't have to worry about being gap sound like we were against OSU, as Keenum is a statue in the pocket.

On offense, OSU and Nebraska could keep us from tearing them up, I have no doubt we will have success against Houston.

COYS and lets go Detroit FC!

November 27th, 2011 at 6:19 PM | The only thing I would worry (Score:1)
FreddieMercuryHayes
Joined: 12/29/2010
MGoPoints: 4890

The only thing I would worry about is that 9th year senior Case Keanum would be able to recognize and attack effectively those zone blitz packages.  Also with a month to prepare, it could lose some of the effectivness it had on unsuspecting offenses.

November 27th, 2011 at 6:25 PM | The point of that package is (Score:3 Normal)
go16blue
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The point of that package is that, while the package itself is extremely easy to recognize, it is impossible to guess where the pressure is coming from (or if it is coming at all). Picking up the blitz is all on the OL, and that is all about talent, not recognizing the scheme. Keenum can recognize a LB in his face all he wants, he'll still get sacked.

The only way to defeat the package is with a good run game (which Houston doesn't have), or a good draw package like what Braxton Miller did against us (which requires a mobile QB).

COYS and lets go Detroit FC!

November 27th, 2011 at 6:55 PM | It's impossible to guess (Score:1)
FreddieMercuryHayes
Joined: 12/29/2010
MGoPoints: 4890

It's impossible to guess where the pressure is coming from at the beginning, but right after the snap a really skilled QB will be able to figure it out.  I'm afraid that Keanum would be that QB considering how long he's been around.  The only other thing they would need is a WR that is able to recognize this as well and change a route to settle into one of those zones before a dropping defender can get there.  But if you're playing 4 or 5 wide all the time, he should pretty much have a WR going into an open zone on any given play.

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