instead of bombing game discussion threads with bowl prognostications, this thread seeks to unify them. One anxiety thread to rule them all.
/commence anxiety. I will start - Houston loss, LSU win, Wisconsin win. Who will we play, damn you?
Nice touch. :-)
Well, this game is certainly better than I thought it would be...Houston is finally playing an opponent with a pulse, and they are (apparently) in a dogfight.
Why would State fall below us by losing a title game?
Because State would have 3 losses and we would have 2.
No, Sparty is already below Mich in the computers and a loss hurts them enough in the polls. LSU takes care of business and we should be fine.
But they've still beat us head-to-head and their 3rd loss would be in the conference championship game to another top-25 team.
If State loses, it's not a given they drop below us. It'd be close, unless Wisconsin destroys them.
IMO if State wins, it's more of a sure thing that Wisconsin drops below us. If Wisconsin wins, it's less of a sure thing that State drops below us.
Head to head doesn't matter. They'll still drop below us in the BCS ranking, which is the only thing that matters. With Houston getting blown out though, it may not matter.
A reasonably logical place to put MSU would be one spot ahead of us in the human polls. If that were to happen, we'd need our present 0.03 lead in the computer polls to grow to 0.08. (A tie is as good as a jump, I think.)
This is the BCS we are talking about.
I'd rather miss a BCS bowl than root for Sparty making the Rose Bowl.
sparty of you.
Holy shit, that's a great avatar.
That's pretty dumb
8million or so
Not to mention that Michigan's captain and coach have both said they want to go to the BCS. If that's not good enough for a fan to root for, I don't know what to tell them.
I know we all hate the BCS, but I swear to God I will pistol whip the next guy who says that "BCS games don't matter".
You don't want to put yourself on the same level of pettiness as Dantonio.
However, I don't think it will matter what happens in the Wisconsin - MSU B1G title game.
We need to move up 2 spots.
Houston's blow out loss could make us move up a spot.
If LSU wins, we should move up a spot.
If Iowa State wins, we will pass Kansas State.
Some pollsters have Baylor above us...if Texas can win, that would help us.
Computer Polls may very well push us up a spot ahead of the MSU-Wisconsin loser in the BCS rankings no matter what the humans vote. I heard an expert on the radio saying the computers will favor us quite a bit over the loser.
Some people and computers have Clemson ahead of us, a loss to VaTech may give us some upward momentum.
If Okie State beats Oklahoma, we move up a spot.
We might surpass the B12 title game loser next weekend, if we don't this weekend.
I think the odds are that we find a way in to the top 14 no matter who wins the B1G title.
I think people are thinking like the paranoid Michigan fans of the past three seasons. We're seen as "back" now, and pollsters are again welcome to pick us. We're even kind of trendy as a pick now-a-days with Hoke calling OSU "Ohio" and us beating "Ohio" instead of collapsing in the late part of the season. With what's happened today so far (LSU blow-out win, Houston blow-out loss, Baylor being BAYLOR, and Oklahoma looking like it's going down to Okie St.), I think we're a BCS lock. 10-2, tradition, coach who points alot, DENARD. We have a lot going for us (totally tempted to say "alot" just to see those fun alot monster pics). The icing on the cake would be a Sparty blow-out loss to drop them below us and send them to the Insight Bowl or something.
Call me Dantonio if you wish, but I'm rooting for Bucky to take MSU behind the woodshed. I think we're in regardless.
WVU for the viewership factor. No other matchup that would draw as much from a Big East champ. That is if they end up winning the Big East.
I'm sure WVU would love win the Big East and flash the bird before leaving for the Big 12.
Yeah, but the Sugar Bowl can still do a lot better than the viewers West Virginia would bring. Whichever team wins the Big East is just going to drag down ratings for the Orange Bowl.
We would be playing TCU, still in the Sugar. If TCU wins tonight, they would be the beneficiary of a Houston loss.They would be ranked in the top 18 as a non AQ champ ranking ahead of the Big East champ.
TCU would have to be in the top 16, and it is unclear whether they would get there. They probably need a Baylor loss, along with Clemson losing to Va. Tech. They also might need a Wisconsin loss and almost definitely need a Georgia loss.
TCU is playing a 2-9 team. I'd be surprised if anyone moves them up even in a blowout.
I think you're right.
It's of course all speculation still, but if Houston were to lose this game are we ready to take on Arkansas, or OK State, or Oklahoma? I haven't done my research so I don't really know who the potential opponent other than Houston would be.
I mean we had a great season, I'm not disputing that, and I love the team and how hard they play, but I don't think we're ready for that stage.
I think we can play with any of those teams. Not a one of them has looked like world beaters against decent competition.
that thing's sweet
That's what she said.
We really need LSU to win, and judging from all potential outcomes I'd much rather stay in the Sugar Bowl. And it doesn't appear that the outcome of the B1G championship is going to affect us in any case.
So Georgia scoring the first field goal may have me a bit panicked, but using this tool, as long as we all root for Iowa State to upset Kansas State, Michigan should still get a BCS bowl. If Georgia wins and Kansas State loses, Michigan is going to the Fiesta Bowl!
Ugh. Iowa State needs to get a TD on this drive!
I don't care who we play. We'll be ready. Houston? Some SEC school? Whatever.
Bring it the F on. We've got Mattison and Denard. They don't.
maybe we play Purdue .... WAWAWAWAWAH .... /s
the polls... At least that's what I heard desmond talk about on ESPN.
It would probably take wins by Georgia, Baylor, Houston, and maybe Oklahoma, and to keep us from getting to the top 14.
Just to be clear... does this Houston game have any impact on us getting to the Sugar Bowl? My impression is no, but it would impact who our potential Sugar Bowl opponent would be... right?
If they lose, they probably fall out of the top 14, moving Michigan up one slot.
Houston is laying a huge, huge egg right now.
It could help us for Houston to lose, moving up the BCS standings if Houston drops below us, but I don't think we need them to (LSU winning combined with the auto loss from Wisconsin/Sparty cements it, I think).
The way they're playing, I hope they pull it out and we take the record for margin of victory in a BCS bowl. They look terrible today.
Not to mention OU is at 10, if they get beaten pretty badly by OSU, they would also drop behind us. Going with the assumption that Houston loses, and drops behind us and an LSU win, that could actually put us at 12.
If Houston loses, im not sure they will drop out of the top 14.
They have zero chance of an at-large bid without being their conference champion.
So a loss mainly means they won't be in the Sugar Bowl. Dunno who is likely to replace them.
Yes they will.
Even if they only drop to 14, we will still be ahead of them. Voters will drop them significantly, though, to make room for BCS teams.
If Georgia beats LSU, they go to the Sugar. Houston then currently occupies the last BCS spot. If they lose, that opens up a spot that will probably be used by the Sugar. As long as TCU doesn't move up to the top 16, and we get to the top 14, we would probably play Georgia in the Sugar.
I am really rooting to go to the Capital One Bowl. I am pretty hyped up to visit the Wizarding World of Harry Potter in Orlando.
I thought in order to get the non-AQ spot you have to be a conference champ. If Houston loses, they are obviously NOT the conference champ. Would that spot go to another non-AQ team? TCU?
Could Houston get in as an at-large? My guess would be no, they're probably not that great of a draw.
TD Southern Miss. 28-14. So... what's happening???
So. Miss's defense is exposing Keenum. TCU?
Think I would rather see Michigan vs TCU
TD Iowa St....Flea Flicker jump ball in endzone!
Edit...Kansas St. just threw a bomb. Tied at 7
Is the ISU-KSU game mostly a security blanket game for us? Just another team to drop out of rankings?
At the end of the day, Geaux Tigers. That's it...
It appears as long as Georgia loses today Michigan is pretty much in. If they win then Michigan needs a lot of help.
So would be nice for KSU to lose just in case.
Kansas St. is ranked ahead of us...
A site dedicated to all the differnt possibilities of this weekends games. http://www.sports-ratings.com/college_football/2011/11/2011-2012-bcs-bowl-projection-widget-test-every-outcome-and-scenarios.html
When an OK St win could very well knock them out, especially if it's a blowout.
I agree. I have faith in the voters to put Ok St in the championship game. If that's the case, Michigan is in the Fiesta Bowl, probably against a second Big 12 team.
I was thinking they take might take Stanford and make a Rose Bowl consolation game. Seems like Luck v Denard would be an interesting matchup, and Stanford might be a wash with K-State ticket wise.
Brian (yes, that Brian) just tweeted that he figures Houston loss = Michigan v. Second Big 12 team or WVU... haha playing WVU would be funny
He's right, but we could also play BSU or TCU, theoretically.
Brian is wrong. Houston is gonna drop behind Michigan. They're terrible on a national stage.
Wait, why is TCU automatic if Houston plummets?
The highest ranked Non-AQ conference champion is guaranteed a spot IF they're in the top 18 and ranked ahead of at least one BCS conference champion. Currently that's Houston. If they lose, TCU as the champion of the mountain west would probably be in the top 18 and almost certainly ahead of West Virginia as the Big East champion, hence they'd get a guaranteed spot.
It's top sixteen, not eighteen.
You are correct. They are sitting 18, and probably going to jump the same teams we are about to (Big ten title game loser, Georgia, Houston, possibly k state).
Short of KSU or Baylor losing, I don't see TCU being able to jump to 16. Yes, the probably jump Wisc/MSU, but I don't see Georgia dropping too far for losing to the #1 team in the country. Houston would have to drop 11 spots.
Isn't Boise ranked higher than TCU? Didn't think conf. championship mattered.
Not a typo
Isn't Boise in above of TCU? They are number 7 right now. Don't they climb into the top 5?
You must be in the Top 4 to get an autobid, and technically TCU won the conference, Boise did not
Boise isn't the mountain west champion, TCU is. The "finish higher than a BCS conference champion" guaranteed spot ONLY goes to a non-AQ conference champion. Boise would need to get to number four to get a guaranteed spot, otherwise they're simply an at large, and wouldn't get taken over a more attractive Michigan or Kansas State.
Didn't win their conference (TCU)
for 1 year.
Just to be clear: if Houston loses to Southern Miss it doesn't negatively impact our chances of getting into the top 14?
It probably helps! If they lose by three TDs, we are probably jumping them!
This is a cluster. This is worse than my mini stick round robin tournaments in hotels growing up.
great memories. I remember playing in tournaments in Grand Rapids and I was honestly more excited to play mini stick hockey than the actual games.
Hahaha - great memories is right. I'm friends currently with more of my mite teammates than guys I went to college with 4 years ago.
If this game is really going to be this big of a blowout... how far does Houston drop?
Bad. They are crapping the bed.
At least to #20 in my estimation. Their schedule is pathetic plus this is the only Houston game that most voters have been able to watch all year
Houston is in no way outta this game yet, but it's getting worse for them by the minute/TD.
Who said we wouldn't be able to handle Houston's passing game, and they'd kill us?
With every S. Miss TD I'm regretting not getting a chance to play these guys. They'd probably have their 21. But I bet we could manage the 42 also.
Wow - That dude had BCS shaved into his head. What a horrible life choice.
BCS shaved into your head will be gone when he lets it grow out (or shaves off the rest of his hair).
And we're going to play TCU or Alabama, depending on what OK St does. That's my guess.
Not gonna happen. Bama is a lock for the MNC game
Ok St is playing they are not, advantage Ok St if they win. Ok St has a much better resume, which is going to be looked at closely after the games. I bet we get another Florida Michigan scenario where the team that plays jumps the team that doesn't.
OK State lost to Iowa St in late November and, unless they put a hurting on Oklahoma, do not have a victory that is as impressive as Alabama's win over Arkansas.
So 1 loss to Iowa St is better than 1 loss to LSU. Better resume?
TCU's Offense: More Run or Pass?
Pass: 236.9 (55)
Rush: 212.4 (19)
Scoring: 40.4 (10)
I've been reading this page, posted in a thread earlier this week:
Skip past the game picker and read the scenarios..not just Michigan's, but some of the others, too.
Yeah, I hate it as much as anyone, but we need Sparty to win.
I'm not sure why people keep saying this. We don't need Sparty to win at all. They will have three losses compared to our two. Both of their losses were blowouts with a probable 3rd tonight.
Just a matter of the tight poll rankings between us, Wisc, and MSU. If MSU loses a close one, it is not out of the question for pollsters to keep MSU ahead of us...especially since they beat us. 3 losses, yes... but they also played 13 games to our 12.
Of course, my ideal is for Sparty to lose and fall below us, cuz BOY would that piss them off. I'm just not counting on that to happen.
What you are failing to realize is that no one outside the state of Michigan respects MSU. A 2 loss Mich v a 3 loss MSU to the college football world is a no brainer.
Wrong. There's a good chance I realize that better than you. I never said a Sparty loss would for sure knock us out. But our best case is for LSU and MSU to win, in which case we're a virtual lock for the BCS.
We don't need Sparty to win. We need LSU to win. If LSU beats Georgia and Houston loses, we are in the top 14 and theres an at large spot for us.
All this "Michigan State would still be ahead of us if they lose to Wisky" talk is wildly speculative, not in line with how voters have ever operated, and irrelevant even if true.
Not only that, but if we move to 14 and MSU has to move down, they have to drop to 15 at least.
Pass defense - not covered?
So many sad cheerleaders.
I feel most sorry for the one guy who took the time to paint half his face red - badly.
It's too bad that Michigan will be helped by LSU winning. I still kind of like the Bulldogs so I guess I'm hoping for a well-played, injury-free game.
Wins by a nose (Mrs. Keenum's that is). Sorry. Couldn't help myself. I don't remember such copious footage of a players gf since Brady Quinn's sister.
this isn't good. Come on Texas!
I think even if Baylor wins big and they jump us, we'll be in good position. Georgia, Houston, MSU/Wisky drop below us.
I agree. At this point, I think it's all about LSU beating Georgia. If that happens, we're in the Sugar Bowl; if not, we're in the Capital One Bowl.
If that was a catch then Junior Hemingay's Iowa catch was certainly a catch too.
No, no, no. We don't need Georgia to lose. If Georgia wins and MSU or Wisconsin win by a decent amount we're in assuming Houston drops below us which they deserve to.
And even if Wisc/MSU is close voters know what's at stake and will very likely still place Michigan above them to get them into top 14.
Michigan might get into the top 14 if LSU loses, but that doesn't mean Michigan would go to the BCS
No, if Georgia wins, there is no BCs bowl slot for us even if we are in the top 14. 6 BCS conference champs + Bama and LsU (title game) + TCU + Stanford (guaranteed as the #4). That's all ten spots guaranteed by rule = no at-large Michigan.
and kansas state loses, michigan could go to the fiesta.
at least according to this little thing i've been using here
That would be sick to play Oaklahoma State. I'm torn and confused as to who to root for.
Sorry, my PC froze and must have reposted when I refreshed.
Okay I guess what I didn't understand was that TCU would be an AUTOMATIC bid to the BCS if they get to rank 16 I never heard that. I thought that just made them eligible as a choice so I thought that gave the BCS bowls a choice between TCU, Michigan, or Kansas State which Michigan would be picked from for the last BCS spot.
I just reviewed the dates for the various bowl games and I don't see a single bowl listed for New Years Day, January 1st. Is this a change for this year or a mistake on ESPN? I can't imagine they changed it as the ratings on New Years day have got to be way higher than they would be later that week with people back at work and school.
NFL owns Sundays, and Jan 1 is a Sunday this year. Sucks for us college fans, though I think Monday the 2nd is a federal holiday.
The Rose Bowl won't be played on a Sunday. I think it's that the Parade of Roses or something won't be held on a Sunday, so they don't do the Bowl either. And since the Rose is the biggest New Years Day bowl they're just doing it on Monday, and I'm pretty sure that's how it's always been too
KSU won. If Georgia wins, it looks like it comes down to:
-- does TCU crack the top 16 (if yes, no BCS for us)
-- if not, does the Sugar Bowl want us or KSU. KSU will be ahead of us, but the Sugar Bowl has no tie-in obligation to take them, does it?
Do I have that right?
Kansas State would be an at large bid. You'd think it would be about the money and Michigan's fan base is far larger than Kansas State. New Orleans also isn't particularly close to Kansas State so they wouldn't get additional fans based on proximity. I'd still think we'd go if we cracked the rankings requirement.
All of this makes my head hurt. Whatever happnes happens. Go Blue!
the most important hurdle has been passed! LSU prevailed.