MGoNukeE

May 2nd, 2014 at 11:13 AM ^

When Hoke gets the opportunity to graduate a class of players he recruited, he becomes fully accountable for the successes and failures of the program. When blame can be heaped onto his predecessor (poor player retention under Rodriguez, few OL recruits, The Process), not so much.

Of course there are limits: despite past problems, I still think Michigan should be good enough to win 8 games against this schedule (prone to change depending on injuries, NCAA hammers, etc). But a 7-win season isn't time to fire Hoke, particularly when there isn't a stud hire to replace him with.

Smidgens

May 1st, 2014 at 11:43 AM ^

I'll just be happy if we can win a game on the road against a team that's over .500 in the regular season, something we've yet to do since Hoke took over.

gwkrlghl

May 1st, 2014 at 11:45 AM ^

everyone needs to remember this is still a super young team. The way you bomb your program for 10+ years is to just keep switching things up every 3 years hoping something magically sticks.

I'll be disappointed if we only win 7-9 and Hoke is let go. It's just going to set us back again.

MWolverine7

May 1st, 2014 at 11:54 AM ^

Realistically the roster is good enough to win more than 7 games this year especially with the home schedule. If we only get to 7 wins it will be a coaching failure barring injuries. IF Hoke needs to be replaced, the incoming coach will not have the roster challenges that both Hoke and Rodriguez faced.

Sten Carlson

May 1st, 2014 at 1:37 PM ^

Hiring a new coach, without taking into account the circumstances within which that hire is taking place, isn't a "setback" per se.  But, very few things in life exist in a vacuum without the influence of surrounding circumstances.

I've said to anyone that will listen for years: Michigan football is clawing its way out of a hole the depth of which is nearly completely lost upon the fanbase.  I've spent more time that I should researching and detailing (mostly on HailVictors/SackCarr) just how far Michigan's program slide, the near unimaginable scholarship deficits, attrition, outdated facilities, etc., that went into the near complete destruction of Michigan's recruiting and developmental pipeline.

These facts, when coupled with the RR debacle, make hiring a new coach (IMO) a serious "setback."  The inner workings of the Michigan football program MUST be rectified BEFORE the reins are handed over to someone else.  Hoke's not there yet, the depth chart is not there yet, the pipeline is not completely rebuilt at this point -- but we're getting there with every passing season.

I know this falls on many deaf ears.  I know that many other Michigan fans out there only care about WINNING, and like to assume that Michigan SHOULD win, and if they don't it's because of the incompetence the coaching staff.  Obviously, I disagree.

Michigan needs a stable environment within which to heal, nothing more.

maize-blue

May 1st, 2014 at 1:55 PM ^

My ears are open and I agree. The sport of football runs at a much slower pace then the other sports. Much slower. Most of the time if there are problems with a program it takes years, not games, to fix. Michigan is finally starting to build a solid and not pieced together roster. There is alot of talent, young, but it's there. 2013 was a dip and I believe that in 2014 we will see this team start trending up.

Sten Carlson

May 1st, 2014 at 3:25 PM ^

The old HailVictors is gone, and I don't think I saved it anywhere, but I'll check.

I mostly detailed the roster, the scholarship deficits, the attrition, and the effect(s) those factors have had on Michigan going forward.  Ironically, much of the impetus for delving into the historic record was in SUPPORT of Carr on the old SackCarr? site.  I was a strong supporter of Carr's preceeding the Horror. 

Basically, I found that Michigan's program began a slow slide during which it had a marked spike in attrition, and a marked decline in the number and quality of players it signed from Ohio.  Some of this was the "lockbox" that Tressel put on Ohio recruits (whether due to above board reasons, or nefarious ones).  Further, it included anticdotal "evidence" such as Ted Ginn Sr's comment about Carr and Michigan, and my own personal conversation with a former Texas football coach about Michigan's "issues."

I am convinced that Michigan is suffering from hubris, and that hubris arose from having and "old guard" who rested on the accomplishments of it's modern legendary coach for too long.  They refused to look at the landscape of CFB and adapt with the times both in culture and in facilities while other programs were doing just that.  Michigan's arrogance came back with a vengence.

My finding/opinions aren't encompassed in one post per se -- although some posts are more dense with findings than others.  I'll see if I can find any of them.

IMO, RR was handed a ship that was barely afloat, let alone being able to actually navigate.  I used to use the huge old mansion on the hill analogy -- from a distance it looked awesome, but when you went inside it was rotten to the core.  RR didn't even look, he just jumped in, it was Michigan after all.  Then the old guard that allowed the mansion to go to pot crucified him.

Personally, I think Brandon is well aware of all of this -- even though he fired RR.  I think he knew that he was never going to get the healing that Michigan needed with RR at the helm because too many people blamed him for everything.  He knows football, and he knows Michigan, and I think that he -- more than anyone else -- knows just how fragile Michigan's football program still is at this time.  Anything that upsets the healing/rebuilding process must be avoided at all costs.

denardogasm

May 1st, 2014 at 12:12 PM ^

I love it when people equate pessimism with realism. There's no telling what this team will do one way or the other, but teams go from awful to great all the time. From last year alone look at Auburn, FSU, and Sparty. Its not that unrealistic. We have the talent, and guess what- you hating the youth excuse doesnt change the fact that the team is very young.

Smidgens

May 1st, 2014 at 12:47 PM ^

"Awful to great?" Auburn sure, but FSU? FSU went 12-2 in 2012... As for MSU, they had some terrible luck in 2012. ND crushed them but other than that, they lost 5 B1G games by something like 13 points. They barely lost to us thanks to a last-second field goal.

 

They sure as hell didn't struggle to narrowly beat terrible teams like Akron and UCONN and get curbstomped by rivals. I'll take 2012 MSU offense over our travesty any day, at least they could run the ball.

jonvalk

May 1st, 2014 at 1:20 PM ^

We got curb stomped by MSU. That's it. We were a two-point conversion try away from knocking off OSU. We beat Notre Dame.



I think the MSU game did more damage to our fan base than anything else.



Am I scared as shit that we'll find a way to lose to App State again? Yes. But at least I know that's the irrational part of my brain working.

Bambi

May 1st, 2014 at 1:20 PM ^

I don't think well go 10-2 at all, but:



Two years ago MSU struggled to beat Eastern. They also struggled to beat USF and Western this past year, they scored almost exclusively on defensive TDs.



And MSU lost 5 games by 13 points 2 years ago. Last year we lost 4 BIG games by 11 points. So there are compatibles. But I don't trust our line enough to make the same kind of jump.

not TOM BRADY

May 1st, 2014 at 11:53 AM ^

This has to be a 10+ win team. I'm sick of hearing about youth. You need actual results by year 4. Sick of the excuses. WIN a big road game elite coaches can do that and have them play at a high level every week. Hopefully Nuss isn't brain dead like Borges.

Unicycle Firefly

May 1st, 2014 at 12:14 PM ^

I would like to believe it, but I just don't see it. I can't imagine Hoke just suddenly morphing into a coach who can win big games, especially on the road. If it hasn't happened by now, I don't think it will.

StephenRKass

May 1st, 2014 at 12:16 PM ^

I mostly want the team to play hard and smart, every game. I really disliked that Michigan backed into several wins last year, and didn't play well. I can live with losses if we play our heart out, don't make stupid mistakes, and are in all the games, with the exception of maybe MSU.

Regarding those who state it is "UNACCEPTABLE" for Michigan to lose to MSU or Ohio, what planet are you living on? Let me rephrase this. I think Hoke and Mattison would also say it is unacceptable. But the reality is that we are partially hamstrung by our offensive line and new receivers and the defense of Michigan State. I 'THINK" our defense will be much improved, but that remains to be seen. If Michigan plays to the best of its ability, and the coaches have a good game plan, I just can't be too upset if a better team beats us. Between the skill of the players, their experience, and luck, you aren't guaranteed any wins.

To me, it isn't a foregone conclusion that Michigan will lose to MSU and Ohio. If our defense really improves, and our offensive line is at least mediocre to average, and one of the running backs steps up, and a couple more receivers step up, and we don't have extensive injuries, well, we could win. But that is needing way too many things to line up right. It "might" happen, but we can't expect it to happen.

I personally believe that Michigan will be somewhere between 8 - 4 and 10 -2. Having a 9 - 3 or 10 - 2 record, with improvement over the course of the season, and a win against MSU or Ohio, would make this season very successful in my estimation.

Coming back to my original point, it isn't just wins and losses. It really is about how you play the game. This year, I personally would rather have an 8 - 4 or 9 - 3 record where we competed and were beat fair and square, than a 10 - 2 record where we lucked out a bunch of times.

maize-blue

May 1st, 2014 at 12:56 PM ^

Correct. I earlier stated something similar in that I believe that this season should not be about if this team can be all world, win the Big Ten, etc. It should be about showing improvement and that they are on the right track. As a couple of the posters alluded to earlier the 2013 team was a few plays away from winning anywhere from 5 to 9 games. A little more improvement and consistency could easily be enough to propel this team to 9-10 wins.

Yeezus

May 1st, 2014 at 1:35 PM ^

7-5

Hoke fired immediately after bowl game (win or loss).  Mgoblog broken for days.  Reports of fan suicides occuring in the state of Michigan.  

hfhmilkman

May 1st, 2014 at 1:49 PM ^

People keep making predictions and have simple answers for what has to occur.  To go 10-2 means the team has to play at an exceptional level.   Here is what has to happen this year that did not happen last year or what has to happen because of players lost to graduation.

Gardner has to be the starting QB and be heathy the entire year.  He has to play at an exceptional level and make plays to win games.  If Morris is having to play serious reps we are in big trouble.  

The individuals who compose the five starters on the Oline must make significant improvements.  This includes the two projected tackles who did not get significant reps or any at all due to injuries. The Oline has to be good enough that when it is 3rd and 2 to go the other team has to respect the run.

The defense must generate two to four play makers.  The defense did well in the context of playing as 11.  However, we were hurt because few big plays were made that turned a possesion.  We were not particulary good at generating sacks or QB pressures.  When they did occur rarely was it with a standard rush.  One of these play makers should be Peppers.  How many games did we lose last season because the Offense of the other team made a play late to win the game?

Someone needs to step up to be a one tech double team monster.  Its really hard to beat the best teams if you do not have a run stopper in the middle.  If teams are not able to dictate the pace of the game Mattison has the freedom to play chess and win the rock paper scissors war.

Funches needs to go from guy who makes a few great plays and then drops the ball to sommeone who catches everything.  One or two other receivers need to step up and not neccesarilly catch everything but make plays.  

If most of this happens then we can talk about Big Ten titles and BCS bowls.  If most of this does not happen, 10 victories is a pipe dream.  So ask of the list above what do you believe is likely?  

 

Ment

May 1st, 2014 at 2:04 PM ^

First year new OC, I'd be happy if they beat MSU and Ohio and make a decent bowl. 10-2 is highly optimistic.  Glass half-full 8-4.

BlueKoj

May 1st, 2014 at 2:14 PM ^

10 wins “feels” like too much. Especially given the kick in the balls the past two seasons, but game-by game her predictions aren’t wildly optimistic and 9-10 wins isn’t ridiculous given the schedule.

Reasons for optimism…generally:

  • well-coached 5th yr QBs who have talent are plus-players
  • highly rated recruits w/low attrition in their 3rd year in same system reaps dividends
  • more games played & more years of S&C = better production
  • impact player coming back from serious injury < fully healthy and prepared impact player
  • top-3 recruits can contribute right away

Reasons for pessimism…generally:

  • historically bad OLs that lose two NFL tackles will struggle
  • having one safety with 8 starts/22 games and a brand new one = trouble

bluenectarine

May 1st, 2014 at 2:38 PM ^

Here is how I see it. Special teams should be above average (maybe even exceptional with a certain recruit on returns). The offense becomes OK with a decent running attack (i.e. minimal losses) and Devin plays good with decent receivers. The difference is our defense...While most of you guys were bitching about the offense last year...I wanted our defense to be 1997 us or 2013 MSU...That is, WIN THE GAME BY YOURSELF!...unfortunately Hoke/Mattison played it soft or maybe they had to...with the changes made this year (Ryan to MLB, coaching changes, Lewis starting at corner, and most importantly a certain prospect coming in) I see a defense that will win the 9 non-rival games and win 2 of the 3 rival games...It would be great to win our division with that...but that part we will wait and see....should be a fun year...Plus I am going to both the ND and OSU games...so lets hope we win both of those, I have a perfect track record on away games I have attended

NoVaWolverine

May 1st, 2014 at 2:44 PM ^

Let's face it: 2015 is the year this program is really building toward. We get a favorable schedule with MSU and OSU coming to Ann Arbor, and we'll have almost everybody important back save Gardner, Ryan, and Morgan. Hoke's great recruiting classes should finally be making a big impact, particularly in the trenches on both sides of the ball. If Sugar Shane is ready to take the reins at QB as a junior, 2015 should -- SHOULD -- be the year when Michigan football resumes crushing its enemies, seeing them driven before us, and hearing the lamentations of their women.

But we gotta get there first, and not suffer another coaching transition in the interim. Hoke's seat is deservedly hot; we need to see the following this year for him to return for a big 2015:

  • Show improvement week-to-week. That was probably the most frustrating thing among many frustrating things last year -- it looked like we were getting WORSE as the season progressed. We need to see all this good young talent getting BETTER, not stagnating or worse.
  • Win the games you're supposed to win. Although I'm not even sure what "supposed to win" means in the context of Michigan football right now, I think that means we win at least 8 games - App St., Miami, Utah, Minnesota, Rutgers, Indiana, NW, Maryland
  • Show you can win AT LEAST ONE rivalry road game, Fergodsakes, and two would be even better. (And don't get your ass kicked in any of them like we did in E. Lansing last year.) That means winning at least one, and if we're fortunate two, of @ND, @MSU, @OSU. The lack of quality road wins has been one of the most worrisome parts of Hoke's tenure thus far, and that needs to start changing this year.
  • Don't lose any games because of obviously inferior coaching/game-planning (e.g., Penn St. game last year). I'm hoping the Nuss hire takes care of that problem.

Do all that and you're at least 9-3, maybe 10-2, and more importantly, it's clear to everyone (players, coaches, AD, fans & alums, recruits) that the trajectory of the program is heading the right direction. That means Hoke returns in 2015, and we are set up for bigger success.

Perkis-Size Me

May 1st, 2014 at 3:20 PM ^

The talent is certainly there to win 10 games. No question about that. But will it happen? I doubt it. Hoke hasn't beaten one team on the road that had a winning record at the end of the season. And we have to go to ND, MSU (sigh...again), and OSU. At this point in time, I'd be shocked if we beat any one of those teams in their own stadium.



At this point, all I'm hoping for is that there is just clear week-to-week improvement, and no getting out coached. There's few things on this planet that are more infuriating than watching Bo Pelini out coach you in your own stadium. Even thinking about that makes me angry. I can live with losing to a team because they were just simply the better team and that was it. But not getting out coached.



Until proven otherwise, I see next year being 0-3 against the rivals, if for no other reason than that Hoke can't win road games until he proves he can, and we'll probably drop a game that we shouldn't, like Penn State. 8-4, followed by another loss to an SEC team in the bowl game to round out a meh 8-5 season.



I hope I'm wrong. I want Hoke to make me eat crow and make me look like a fool.

Cold War

May 1st, 2014 at 4:42 PM ^

We demand Michigan football post an impressive record this season, and will react with doubt and ridicule toward any homer that actually predicts same. We are counting on being disappointed and outraged this fall, and we will not be denied.

Sincerely,

MGoBloggers