Analysis: MSU Defense
Is Sparty’s defense as good as advertised?
Now that our attention is fully turned to this game, I have been reading and listening to a bunch of bull crap about how the MSU D will shut down Denard, they are ranked 3rd Nationally and so on and so forth, but I wanted to see for myself how they got this reputation.
Obviously, last year MSU had a pretty good 2010 season and beat us up pretty bad. They finished #26 in Total Defense last year, but gave up a lot of points in several games (several in the 30s and 40s). How many defensive starters return from their #26 ranked Defensive unit? …...just 6.
Secondly, there is the issue of Minnesota-esque competition this year. The MSU defense has certainly played well only surrendering 51 pts through 5 games. But as you can see below, the record for previous MSU opponents is terrible and their respective total offensive rankings are pitiful, except for Notre Dame. Of course they lost (badly) to the only decent team they have played.
MSU Scoring Defense ranked # 3
6 Points… Youngstown State (now 2-3): ranked #9 in scoring offense in FCS.
0 points… Florida Atlantic (now 0-5): ranked #113 in scoring offense in FBS.
31 points… Notre Dame (now 4-2) ranked #44 in scoring offense in FBS.
7 points… C. Michigan (now 2-4) ranked #94 in scoring offense in FBS.
7 points… Ohio State (now 3-3) ranked #84 in scoring offense in FBS.
Combined opponent records: 11-17
Average opponent scoring-O rank: 97 (Only WINS counted) (YS not counted)
Then there is the issue of Michigan’s offense. Through the whole season last year, M ranked #22 nationally in scoring offense. We returned 9 starters on offense, and are starting to look as solid as we have ever looked. The scoring offense through 6 games last year was 37.3 and through 6 games this year, it is 37.8.
Michigan Scoring Offense ranked #21
34 points… W. Michigan (now 4-2) ranked #39 in scoring defense in FBS.
35 points… Notre Dame (now 4-2) ranked #32 in scoring defense in FBS.
31 points… E. Michigan(now 3-3) ranked #62 in scoring defense in FBS.
28 points… SDSU (now 3-2) ranked #52 in scoring defense in FBS.
58 points… Minnesota (now 1-5) ranked #110 in scoring defense in FBS.
42 points… Northwestern (now 2-3) ranked #73 in scoring defense in FBS.
Combined opponent records: 17-17* (M has played one more game than MSU)
Average opponent scoring-D rank: 61.3
Final Thoughts
I believe one of the greatest x-factors Hoke and Co have brought to this team (they are virtually the same players as last year) is their pre-game preparation and mid-game adjustments. We’ve seen a huge difference at half-time as in the WMU, ND, SDSU, and Northwestern games, and have played much better in the first quarter offensively for the most part since ND (save Denard’s picks).
I think Mattison and Co exploit MSUs O-line problems and prevent Cousins from getting in a consistent rhythm all day. The much improved M defense will be well prepared after seeing several decent to good QBs all year (Carder, Rees, Lindley, Persa) and continue their bend-but-don’t-break routine.
I don’t want to thoughtlessly run MSU into the ground, but on the basis of 6 newcomers to the defense and shoddy competition, they have a lot to prove to me that they can stop Michigan’s offense.
Michigan wins this easier than once thought: 38-24
October 11th, 2011 at 4:51 PM ^
Had that exact same prediction on my mind this morning. 38-24, Michigan wins.
October 11th, 2011 at 4:58 PM ^
advantage. I think the score will be close. But we may well win in a way that demonstrates clearly that we are the better squad.
After that MSU's regents can go home pondering the five years they have just invested in Dantonio.
October 11th, 2011 at 5:01 PM ^
to figure out what works and what doesn't with this team and we can all agree that the new Michigan coaches have done an excellent job of adjusting over the course of each game......MSU is a good team, but not a great team......Michigan has to win the turnover battle to give themselves the chance to win...........is the OSU defense that good? MSU didn't put up many points against them.........27-24 Michigan.
October 11th, 2011 at 5:10 PM ^
I'm just glad we got the away-game jitters out vs. NW last week, and proved to ourselves that we can win in a more methodical come-from-behind fashion than occurred vs. ND. MSU will be a very hostile environment, but hopefully the team can remain composed, and trust in the coaches. I'm hoping for a quick start a la Minnesota. I think if we surrender a few scores to MSU quickly then the pressure will build. Conversely, if we can go up a score with a solid defensive stand or two, the team will believe in themselves more. This is going to be a big game for confidence, especially on Denard's part. Hopefully he can shake off those picks last week and keep composure in the pocket, because Worthy and Gholston will manage to get some pressure. I'm also interested to see the actual depth of MSU's OL suckitude. I think this game is likely to be a low-scoring defensive affair -- and Denard will inevitably make some magic, that will hopefully pull it out. M 24, MSU 17
October 11th, 2011 at 5:42 PM ^
Unfortunately, this feels like one of the areas where a fan can't tell which teams are good until after seven or eight games go by. For MSU, unfortunately, that means we'll have played Nebraska, Wisconsin and U of M first.
As to the issue at hand, I think our defense is improved physically and from a talent perspective. I still think we're more prone to mental errors in the linebacking corps. Further, I think everyone is jumping the gun on Gholston, I think he'll be good even great at times this season, but he needs to improve his pass-rushing playbook to be great consistently.
In reading Rational's post I guess the only other thing I'll add is that if MSU is not ahead by more than one score at the half I don't like MSU's chances. UM has been a second half team this season and we need to have a lead at the half for me to feel good about our chances.
October 11th, 2011 at 5:49 PM ^
Who are the playmakers on MSU this year? Cunningham for certain. Have not seen much from the running backs or Cousins due to their OL play. I just don't think they have enough playmakers to win this game unless they win the turnover battle by a significant margin -- strange things can happen in EL, but I don't think they will. I see a more conservative gameplan by UM. They will protect the football and grind it out. UM scores a late touchdown after a Cousins interception and wins 24-13.
October 11th, 2011 at 5:59 PM ^
The MSU running game is simply terrible. Its a result of a weak offensive line that can not be covered up. MSU has played 5 games and have struggled to run the ball in all 5 including FAU and CMU as a result of having converted D lineman like France starting. You cannot ignore a glaring weakness on the most important unit on any offense and pretend it will go away. MSU with what is probably the 2nd best group of running backs in the Big Ten is only averaging 3.4 yards per carry against a schedule that includes YSU, FAU and CMU. No MSU back, as good as they might be, have been able to reach 100 yards in a single game this year! Folks are giving MSU the benefit of the doubt that they can all of a sudden find a decent running game, im not sure its warranted. Ill take the Michigan running game which averages almost double that of MSU at 6.2 yards per carry.
October 11th, 2011 at 5:59 PM ^
The front four of Jerel Worthy, Marcus Rush, William Gholston, A.R. White/K. Pickelman is legit. The LBs of Bullough, Denicos Allena dn C. Norman are also very good. These are quality players.
On the road AT Notre Dame, MSU gave up only 114 yards rushing and only 161 yards passing against the same Irish team that earlier had outgained Michigan in Ann Arbor by over 60+yards. ND rushed for near 200 yards and passed for 315 against the Wolverines with relative ease.
If we set UM's unlikely last second 4th quarter heroics aside for a moment, that Notre Dame offense basically had their way against UM's D most of the night. Michigan could not stop them at all.
MSU's defense didn't either, but they played a lot better against Notre Dame's offense than Michigan did and on the road. Besides MSU lost the game in South Bend for 3 main reasons - most of them offense-related:
1.) two key drive killing turnovers
2.) a pitiful 3rd down conversion rate of 22% (5 of 17)
3.) 12 penalties for -86 yards. (there's your obligatory "Sparty No!" right there)
It was MSU's worst effort in rushing defense of the year: 3.6 ypc against the Irish rushers. Michigan's defense? They allowed the Irish 6 YPC (at home).
I think the truth is that MSU's defense may actually be underrated mainly because it's offense doesn't move the ball on the ground anymore and it's been remarkably bad on critical 3rd downs (35.2% year to date). Offensively, MSU's 3rd down stats are on par with Michigan's offense back in 2008.
I beleive both defenses are going to play far better than they have all year and likely prevent either team from hitting 30 pts.
On special teams I give MSU an edge if K. Martin returns any kickoffs or punts. He's very dangerous.
October 11th, 2011 at 6:13 PM ^
The game was a blowout due to MSU and its AWFUL offensive line. The penalties were not random, they were the result of the MSU offensive lineman desperately trying to keep Cousins in one piece! ND took the air out of the ball for the whole 4th quarter and became one dimensional just running the ball. ND ran the ball at will in the 1st half when they were balanced, not so much once they decided to just run clock in the 4th quarter.
October 11th, 2011 at 6:02 PM ^
October 11th, 2011 at 7:04 PM ^
Spartybragging from last year is still skewing the general perception of their team. They have lost a lot of players on both sides of the ball, and don't have the depth to fill in. Their offense is based on pushing people around. That works great if you have more talent than the other team. If you don't, though, you need a bit of finesse and intellect. Sparty has neither.
Their defense is more of the same. They are great if they can push people around. If they can't, they suck. They won't be pushing an older, more-experienced Michigan team around this year.
I guess what I am trying to say is this: a good team is more than the sum of its parts on both sides of the ball. Sparty is barely the sum of its parts on either side of the ball. They are in for an ass-whupping.
October 11th, 2011 at 7:17 PM ^
So it pains me to say this, but MSU is going to win. It comes down to Denard versus their defense. His tendency to throw off his back foot when pressured, and questionable decision making at inopportune times makes me leery of Denard in this game. MSU can be exploited for big yards, but that generally occurs versus an accurate pocket passer who makes good decisions. Denard is not that.
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<br>Defensively, I expect MSU to find a running game Saturday. UM is still smallish up front and they have not totally rid themselves of bad habits picked up under GERG.I expect to MSU to run for 175 yds.
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<br>My expectation is a 10 pt MSU victory along the lines of 31-21. I hope I am wrong, but I lack faith in Denard as a passer. I have a reoccurring nightmare that he is going to go all Demetrius Brown on us Saturday.
October 11th, 2011 at 7:28 PM ^
Tell me which player up front you think is too small. Our starters are 295-304-288-269 and our backups are 263-302-322-260. That's not the biggest DL in the country, but it's certainly not small either. Of all the things you could say about our defense, saying our front is smallish is not one of them.
October 11th, 2011 at 8:08 PM ^
Well the MSU defense is ranked what it is because stats don't take into account the variables everyone is bringing up. Of course, the beginning schedule for MSU is weak and it usually is, but OSU cannot be looked at the same as last year. So excluding that game, the defense is great, against meh teams. If OSU still had Py-liar, I mean tattoo-Pryor and tressel$, it would be a relevant stat, but because that is not the case, Saturday is a measure for both teams.
However, I think the luck that MSU was having last year seems to have gone by the wayside and their trickery is not welcome in October this year.
October 11th, 2011 at 8:30 PM ^
But our offense is way ahead of theirs. A lot of people are underrating our passing attack, Hemingway and Roundtree are really good receivers and if they try too hard to stop denard's legs, Hemingway and Roundtree will burn them for hundreds of yards.
October 11th, 2011 at 8:59 PM ^
MSU held ND to 29 yards net rushing and still lost by 18. ND's turnover-itis improved yet they still gave the ball to MSU 3 times. I am reluctant to give Sparty's D any credit for the OSU game because A) I hate them bastards and will concede nothing to those turds and B) OSU is in a state of complete disarray. You can't tell me that's a normal Buckeye team after losing their demigod coach, freakishly athletic winning QB, their starting LT, their starting RB, their starting WR, and more NCAA sanctions breathing down their necks. All that crap off the field is absolutely affecting their performance on the field.
I never feel confident about games, particularly after the last 3 years. I'm always nervous and worried about this and that. It's just my nature. Despite my fluttering stomach, due mostly to having to listen to the endless rabble and fleeting arrogance of State fans, I am predicting a win for Michigan. Denard may still throw a couple interceptions. But as we've shown already this year, we have the ability to overcome.
Go Blue!
October 11th, 2011 at 9:10 PM ^
thanks for expressing precisely how I feel and saving me the time.
October 11th, 2011 at 9:27 PM ^
MSU held ND to 29 yards net rushing and still lost by 18.It was the other way around - ND held MSU to 29 rush yards. ND had 114.
October 11th, 2011 at 9:40 PM ^
Thank you. My mistake.
The good news is, they still lost by 18.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:42 PM ^
It's really difficult to get a handle on how good or bad the Spartans are this year. The teams they beat are so bad, those games provide about as much information as Michigan's spanking of Minnesota: not much. Even the OSU game didn't really tell a lot, with OSU's offensive woes and the pouring down rain. It's a wonder the game didn't end in a scoreless tie.
That leaves us the ND game. ND easily controlled the line of scrimmage when they were on defense...it wasn't even close. When ND was on offense, it was much closer, but ND still seemed to be able to move the ball at will. I agree with other posters that MSU's offense seems decidedly weaker this year. The defense seems about the same.. perhaps a bit better in some areas, a bit weaker in others. But Michigan's defense is much better than last year's, and I would argue that the offense is better, too--not by a lot--but in its ability to adapt in the second half and also its ability to sustain drives and eat up clock, keeping the other team's offense off the field.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:56 AM ^
The kind we are not giving up this year. I just don't see MSU running crazy on this defense, and getting multiple TDs off big runs and big pass plays like was the case last year.
The difference in the game will be turnovers. We play like we did the second half of the NU game, taking away and not giving it up, we win.
October 12th, 2011 at 7:10 PM ^
excellent read while waiting for my flight home.
October 12th, 2011 at 7:10 PM ^
excellent read while waiting for my flight home.