Analysis: MSU Defense
Is Sparty’s defense as good as advertised?
Now that our attention is fully turned to this game, I have been reading and listening to a bunch of bull crap about how the MSU D will shut down Denard, they are ranked 3rd Nationally and so on and so forth, but I wanted to see for myself how they got this reputation.
Obviously, last year MSU had a pretty good 2010 season and beat us up pretty bad. They finished #26 in Total Defense last year, but gave up a lot of points in several games (several in the 30s and 40s). How many defensive starters return from their #26 ranked Defensive unit? …...just 6.
Secondly, there is the issue of Minnesota-esque competition this year. The MSU defense has certainly played well only surrendering 51 pts through 5 games. But as you can see below, the record for previous MSU opponents is terrible and their respective total offensive rankings are pitiful, except for Notre Dame. Of course they lost (badly) to the only decent team they have played.
MSU Scoring Defense ranked # 3
6 Points… Youngstown State (now 2-3): ranked #9 in scoring offense in FCS.
0 points… Florida Atlantic (now 0-5): ranked #113 in scoring offense in FBS.
31 points… Notre Dame (now 4-2) ranked #44 in scoring offense in FBS.
7 points… C. Michigan (now 2-4) ranked #94 in scoring offense in FBS.
7 points… Ohio State (now 3-3) ranked #84 in scoring offense in FBS.
Combined opponent records: 11-17
Average opponent scoring-O rank: 97 (Only WINS counted) (YS not counted)
Then there is the issue of Michigan’s offense. Through the whole season last year, M ranked #22 nationally in scoring offense. We returned 9 starters on offense, and are starting to look as solid as we have ever looked. The scoring offense through 6 games last year was 37.3 and through 6 games this year, it is 37.8.
Michigan Scoring Offense ranked #21
34 points… W. Michigan (now 4-2) ranked #39 in scoring defense in FBS.
35 points… Notre Dame (now 4-2) ranked #32 in scoring defense in FBS.
31 points… E. Michigan(now 3-3) ranked #62 in scoring defense in FBS.
28 points… SDSU (now 3-2) ranked #52 in scoring defense in FBS.
58 points… Minnesota (now 1-5) ranked #110 in scoring defense in FBS.
42 points… Northwestern (now 2-3) ranked #73 in scoring defense in FBS.
Combined opponent records: 17-17* (M has played one more game than MSU)
Average opponent scoring-D rank: 61.3
Final Thoughts
I believe one of the greatest x-factors Hoke and Co have brought to this team (they are virtually the same players as last year) is their pre-game preparation and mid-game adjustments. We’ve seen a huge difference at half-time as in the WMU, ND, SDSU, and Northwestern games, and have played much better in the first quarter offensively for the most part since ND (save Denard’s picks).
I think Mattison and Co exploit MSUs O-line problems and prevent Cousins from getting in a consistent rhythm all day. The much improved M defense will be well prepared after seeing several decent to good QBs all year (Carder, Rees, Lindley, Persa) and continue their bend-but-don’t-break routine.
I don’t want to thoughtlessly run MSU into the ground, but on the basis of 6 newcomers to the defense and shoddy competition, they have a lot to prove to me that they can stop Michigan’s offense.
Michigan wins this easier than once thought: 38-24
October 11th, 2011 at 3:48 PM ^
I can't see us scoring that many. Probably more like in the 20s. MSU doesn't have the #1 defense in the country (as they are currently ranked in total D), but they're much better than any defense we've faced, save maybe ND. The only time they've shown any kind of vulnerability is against ND, and even then, they only surrendered 24 points (seven came on a kickoff return). And you know Dantonio has had them obsessively preparing for us. We're going to need some new wrinkles.
October 11th, 2011 at 4:38 PM ^
On the upside, its gotta be pretty hard to prepare for our offense this season. It has been evolving pretty progressively every week this season and prep against a lot of the stuff we showed against ND wouldn't do a whole lot for what we've run the last few weeks.
October 11th, 2011 at 5:03 PM ^
At the very least, I hope we vary our snap count. MSU made a killing jumping the count the last three years.
October 11th, 2011 at 5:11 PM ^
They were timing the count against the Buckeyes as well. I'd love to see us take advantage of this.
October 11th, 2011 at 3:54 PM ^
I say we score lower than usual, but still at least a touchdown more than Small Broseph. Their defense has held nearly non-existent offenses to few points, and that is no accomplishment, so I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see us break 30 points. If Notre Dame can hang 31 on them, why can't we?
EDIT: Just teasin'. We soar to 58 for the second time in three weeks on the wings of Denard's helmet.
October 11th, 2011 at 3:56 PM ^
I feel very confident saying our defense is good. How good? We will see on Saturday.
You won't hear me saying that FAU or CMU have good offenses, but even though they stink, the stunk the worst against us.
Same thing with OSU. Their offense sucks (and is anemic with Bauserman), but they stunk far worse against us (with Braxton Miller) at home than they did at Nebraska.
As for Notre Dame, their point total was bloated because of a special teams TD and an INT that got returned to our 5 yard line or something like that. Yardage wise, we held them to their fewest output.
I read this board frequently and few posters give MSU any credit. I think the MSU D did a nice job of "containing" Denard last year and capitalizing on his mistakes. To me, that is the key. Limit the giant plays and make Denard string 10-15 plays together without making a mistake. Eventually, he will throw a bad pass and you have to be there to capitalize.
Will it happen? We'll find out on Saturday.
Our OLine also is a running joke on this board. No doubt it has been far from stellar, but it has actually improved since the ND game and we ran the ball decent enough to keep the OSU defense honest. I don't think our OLine has to dominate Michigan's DLine to be successful. Just hold up enough to give Kirk time to throw.
Again, we'll see. To me, that is the barometer of this game. Can MSU's Oline hold up and Can MSU's Defense contain Denard and prevent big plays.
My prediction?
MSU 24-UM 14
October 11th, 2011 at 4:04 PM ^
Very reasonable analysis. I could definetely see the game going the way you predict. I want to win this game so badly it is ridiculous. I can't take 4 losses in a row. I am terrified to make a prediction because I feel like we could/should win but don't want to be dissappointed.
October 11th, 2011 at 4:08 PM ^
just for the name. Well played, RationalMSUfan, well played...
October 11th, 2011 at 5:21 PM ^
Yes!
Much respect (and ass kissing) from the mgoblog crew because you're an opposing fan who doesn't appear to need a bib.
/s
October 11th, 2011 at 4:22 PM ^
+1 for providing more substance in your response than "Hoke is fat! scUM sux!"
And I agree with you that most people around here underestimate your defense, I think you guys could be scary good. Holding ND's offense to under 300 yards was impressive. I don't think your win over tSIO is as good as a lot of your fans want it to be, though. Major caveats apply to their team right now, and will apply if we are able to beat them this year.
I hesitate to make a prediction for this game, because I feel like the outcome could vary wildly. I could see it turning into a game where both offensive lines struggle to contain the defensive lines and it turns into a low-scoring affair. I could also see it turning into a slaughter-house, where Cousins is lighting up our secondary and Denard is torching you guys through the air and on the ground. Regardless, I'd be surprised to see it turn into a blowout either way. Should be an exciting game..
Edit: As a side note, I wanted to add that the MSU fans who think that this game is our "Super Bowl" are way off. This game is definitely huge for us, and will be a huge boost of confidence if we win, but nothing trumps the OSU game, no matter how good or bad either team is.
Just wanted to add that.
October 11th, 2011 at 5:02 PM ^
scUM sux!!!!!
/S
October 11th, 2011 at 5:07 PM ^
RE = Sparty fans saying this is our Super Bowl
They are clearly aping M fans who calmly observe that this game is the be-all end-all game for Sparty. I guess I'm touched they're still imitating us.
October 11th, 2011 at 4:24 PM ^
Given the examples you cited could we not come to the conclusion that your defensive statistics are also "bloated" from the ND game? A drive that starts at the opponent's 5 yard line and a kickoff return for a TD take a lot away from total yards on offense.
October 11th, 2011 at 4:54 PM ^
October 11th, 2011 at 4:23 PM ^
While ND's point total may be a little inflated because of the kick-off return and the INT that got returned a long way, ND's yardage total is thus also falsely deflated. That kick-off robbed the ND offense of a chance to gain yards. Would they have? That's a question no one can answer, but I think they would have gained a little. Same with that INT taking away the chance for their O to march down the field and gain yards. Same with the muffed punt that robbed their O of another drive. Basically, the yardage totals could also depressed because of things as well. As for the INT, didn't ND only get a FG that time any way? I thought they pretty much kept the ball in the middle of the field to set up for the FG on that drive.
So take out the special teams score and the points off that long INT return, and you still have a score of 21-13. Add 7 points (generous maxiumum) if that INT isn't thrown either, and you still have a score of 21-20 (or possibly 21-21 or 21-19 considering MSU would probably have gone for 2 at that point). Still not a lot of offensive production against at pretty good, but not elite defense.
Basically what I'm saying is that you're not giving UM'D enough credit either. UM's D is as good as ND's yardage wise (actually a bit better), and much better scoring wise because we seem to force a lot of TOs. So does MSU's O realistically get 24 points on UM? I'm not sure I know the answer, but I think it's a deffinate possibility that you don't.
As a random aside, MSU hasn't beat a team with a winning record. That includes the FCS school you played. Just sayin'...
October 11th, 2011 at 4:29 PM ^
"As for Notre Dame, their point total was bloated because of a special teams TD and an INT that got returned to our 5 yard line or something like that. Yardage wise, we held them to their fewest output.
If you want to take away other teams points due to interceptions Im thinking Michigans defense soars right up the rankings and Notre Dames & Northwesterns offensive outputs look a whole lot different.. Just saying.
October 11th, 2011 at 4:40 PM ^
I think the teams are pretty even - given the data we have from this season, I think we're a little bit better. Since the game is being played in East Lansing, however, I see it as a toss-up.
October 11th, 2011 at 4:54 PM ^
I appreciate your rational and respectful response, but I have some counterpoints:
1) Your defense. No doubt it has been stellar so far. The point about who you guys have played has been made multiple times. But I don't buy into the argument that "some offenses are bad, but they did worse against us, so that makes us better". Take FAU for example. You guys absolutely shut them down. But so did Florida for the most part. Yeah they scored 3 points, but really, what's the difference in three points in such a blowout? 3 points against the second stringers mean nothing. I mean, yeah, you shut them out. But North Texas, the 109th ranked scoring defense, held them to 17 points. There's not much to be said for shutting out FAU.
And to your point about OSU. They had their worst game yardage wise vs you guys, but Miami held them to a similarly awful yardage total, and held them to only 2 field goals. Once again, this is the Miami defense that just gave up close to 500 yards vs Va Tech, the same team that only put up 17 on East Carolina. The fact that OSU's offense did so much better vs Nebraska has more to do with Nebrask'as defense being vastly overrated than anything.
2) To your point about your O-Line holding up vs OSU. You didn't run the ball decent enough at all. You really didn't keep OSU's defense honest at all. Your RBs totaled 27 rushed for 85 yards that game, barely over 3 yards a carry, and as a team, barely over 2 yards a carry. That's God awful. And that showed in Cousins passing. Under 8 yards per attempt, and only 1 TD to 2 picks. And the TD was on a broken play in which Cunningham really did all the work. The only player on your offense all year that has actually looked like a real threat is Cunningham, so if we can shut him down, double-cover him all game or whatever is necessary, your offense doesn't scare me in the slightest.
3) On the flip side, I think you guys are underestimating our defense. We have looked a thousand times better this year, and in the second half of games especially our defense has looked great. Our D-Line didn't look as good as we expected early on, but these past couple games it has really stepped up. Our LBs are very solid this year and have made a ton of plays for us, and more importantly, can tackle well this year. Then our secondary has really improved the most. Kovacs has grown exponentially in this defense. Thomas Gordon has looked very good at the other safety spot. The biggest improvement is at CB though. Woolfolk is back after missing all of last year, and although he has been banged up recently, he looks to be fine for this upcoming week IIRC. Floyd has been solid, and then the biggest upgrade has been from freshman Blak Countess. He has looked great so far this year and provides us a talented, young 3rd CB who can match up well with any of your WRs in a nickel.dime package.
4) You guys haven't faced anyone like Denard yet, meaning a dual threat QB as prolific as him. Yes you faced Braxton Miller, but he's more like Debard circa '09. He's only a threat with his feet at this point, and even his feet aren't as good as Denard's were in '09. Yes you faced Denard last year, but you lost all 3 starting LBs IIRC, and that includes All-American Greg Jones. These guys haven't faced the speed of a Denard at QB all year, and if he gets out in the open field vs them, that's trouble for you guys.
October 11th, 2011 at 5:17 PM ^
Just so I follow correctly:
- MSU shuts out OSU who played well against Nebraska.......means Nebraska overrated; MSU bad.
- Miami playing well against OSU and then getting beat by Va Tech who put up 17 against East Carolina.....means Miami bad, MSU bad; VaTech bad and one can infer that East Carolina bad?
Do you have a flowchart for all these transitive theories? They get confusing every year.
October 11th, 2011 at 5:26 PM ^
I never once said Va Tech or MSU is bad. Yes, I think Miami and ECU are bad. But you're the one over-inferring about MSU and Va Tech. Nebraska's D is overrated, anyone can see that and that's all I stated. And the Miami thing is just saying that their D got torched by Va Tech, and Va Tech's offense isn't that good, the stats show it. I used ECU specifically because Va Tech did specifically bad in that game. Va Tech is a good team, but they're not 500 yards good on offense. I'm not trying to say MSU's D is bad, I'm saying we just don't know, because none of the teams they played are that good.
October 11th, 2011 at 6:03 PM ^
Flowchart would still be helpful
October 11th, 2011 at 5:43 PM ^
The OSU that MSU faced was Braxton Miler in his first start EVER and 3 other all Big Ten caliber players suspended and their best defensive player DE Williams out due to injury. Did you see the OSU-Toledo game?
October 11th, 2011 at 6:58 PM ^
He started against Colorado, MSU was his 2nd game starting.
October 11th, 2011 at 5:56 PM ^
Looks like we'll just have to wait till THE_KNOWLEDGE comes and tells us how good MSU's defense is.
October 11th, 2011 at 5:01 PM ^
In all fairness, yes Denard is likely to chuck a pick or two if you make him string plays together and he gets flustered. My hope is they won't be picks that could've been scoring opportunities, as they were last year (two, I think). The same, though, can be said of Cousins. If our defense can get pressure, he'll make bad decisions. I expect at least one pick from him. Last year he was remarkably composed against us, but our defense was also ridiculously garbage. Even with how terrible the defense was last year, the game was probably closer than it should've been given the depth of our failure vs. Wisconsin and OSU. I think we have enough tools this year to pull it out.
October 11th, 2011 at 3:59 PM ^
To the OP. I would wager a large sum of money that UM doesn't score 38 points.
Both teams will attempt to run the ball and the way this game normally gets played, I don't expect a lot of scoring in the 1st. half.
I will come back an eat crow, but even if UM wins, I don't expect their point total to be in the 30's.
October 11th, 2011 at 4:05 PM ^
I think a similar comment could be made about your prediction of Denard and company only scoring 14. The likely result is somewhere in the middle. But taking the under on this offense this year has not (so far) been a wise choice.
October 11th, 2011 at 4:43 PM ^
Very well said and exactly my thoughts. We wont score high 30s like we have been doing but dont expect us to only score 14. This has mid to upper 20s written all over it. This will be very interesting to see.
The Team! The Team! The Team!
October 11th, 2011 at 4:07 PM ^
really, its nice to see some other thoughts on this board. But, dont forget that there are a lot of players for M that have huge sense of renewed pride + a "we are going to beat the shit out of MSU year since we lost the last three years in a row" attitude.
38 points? we will see my friend.
October 11th, 2011 at 4:20 PM ^
October 11th, 2011 at 4:38 PM ^
MSU Defense currently has held opponents to 64yds/game, Michigan is running for 257yds/game. I think MSU is decent on the run defense but they have not faced the running QB that is Denard. I think Michigan hangs at least 200yds on the ground.
MSU currently is running 128.8yds/game, Michigan is giving up 134yds/game. This one is a draw and MSU gets 140yds.
I say Denard/Michigan have more horse power in the game than Cousins/MSU can muster, but is closer than many think. The winner on the ground has more than not won this game.
Michigan wins 28-24.
October 11th, 2011 at 6:24 PM ^
against some pretty bad teams. We should be able to hold MSU under its average. It's MSU's offensive line that is its glaring weakness, so what we need to do is let our strength - D line is looking better and better - pressure Cousins and stop the RBs.
My bet is that Denard does not throw a pick this week. He is a hard worker and a quick learner. You can bet Coach Borges will be working with him on his footwork this week and that Denard will be as mentally prepared as is humanly possible. He has a great smile, but it is not enough to hide an extremely competitive personality.
The rational MSU fan is irrationally overlooking (politely, though) the fact that in the two games where MSU's offense faced decent defenses (giving OSU the benefit of the doubt for the moment), MSU scored 13 and 10 points respectively. I think that's about what they score against us and that we are held only a little below our average.
M - 31; MSU - 10
October 11th, 2011 at 7:31 PM ^
Bold prediction Jack, I would love it if you are correct though.
October 11th, 2011 at 4:04 PM ^
While I agree totally with your analysis my pre-season prediction was a 34-31 loss. As of today, I have no idea what to expect. I am certain that the coaches will roll out things that we haven't seen to date. Just want to put this out there......please!!! If my outcome is wrong and I hope and pray that it is let's have more class than Sparty fans in our victory. Save the likes of Rational Sparty of course!! (yes, I know there are others)
Go Blue
October 11th, 2011 at 4:02 PM ^
From watching most of their games more than once, I actually think they are a better D than a year ago. Some of the new players are steps up from who they had there in the past. Very impressed with the LB trio, who are on pace to be a lot more productive than the Jones/Gordon corps was a year ago.
Not sure our OLine is up for the task, but we shall see.
I think both teams are, generally speaking, better overall this year than they were a year ago. Should be an exciting game
October 11th, 2011 at 4:07 PM ^
I can see better on defense though still hard to believe after losing Jones, but their offense seems to have taken a step back. Last year their passing was explosive and their run game very impressive.
I really don't know what to expect in this game.
October 11th, 2011 at 4:07 PM ^
I guess by your assessment that we should all take the over in this one. I think this game will go into halftime with neither team having more than 14 points but I think the lid will blow off in the second. Going to say 38-31 Michigan Victory.
October 11th, 2011 at 4:12 PM ^
I am hoping that this is one of those games that is supposed to be close, but we end up just blowing the doors off of MSU while announcing our return to (almost) being Michigan once again.
That is just my hope, and there is not rational basis for that prediction other than the fact that we beat an ND team that blew MSU up. Sure we had some help from ND in our win. BUT Sparty actually won the TO battle with ND as well, and they still lost.
What's more likely to happen is that this game will be defined by mistakes. If Denard makes the right decisions and limits out TOs to 1 or 2, I think we win a close one. If Denard serves up the picks again (especially in the redzone) we will lose.
Now I know MSU will have a say in this game as well. But I am just looking at this from a MIchigan perspective, as I know little about this Sparty team and what they are capable of.
I can't say that either team jumps out to me as the "better" team, even though Sparty fans think it is a no-brainer. It will come down to mistakes, desire, and passion. It is afterall a rivalry game.
October 11th, 2011 at 4:49 PM ^
I am hoping this is similar to the SDSU game outcome. For that game alot of people were expecting a close game which would come down to the wire, then BOOM kick to the teeth for a comfy win.
October 11th, 2011 at 7:41 PM ^
October 11th, 2011 at 8:30 PM ^
Not because we won by so much, but because people will say we haven't played anyone yet. 7-0. Lol sparty
October 11th, 2011 at 4:35 PM ^
But looking at last years drives (11 total), four were 3-and-out punts, and a fifth was a 3-play drive that ended with an INT. The other 6 drives could be viewed as successful (gaining 40 yards or more) resulting in either a score, a FG attempt, or (2) INTs deep in Spartan territory. That's less success than Michigan is used to though...Denard had only 4.1 YPC - extremely low for him.
Our offense is pretty similar in effectiveness to last year, and unfortunately, the turnovers remain a concern. It seems like the issue of 'what has changed since 2010' in this matchup is the Michigan defense. The track record, due to lack of resistance, is difficult to assess. Notre Dame's offense is very different than Michigan's.
What about personnel? They lost some veterans in the secondary and at linebacker but seem to have recovered without significant problems. Worthy and Gholston are legitimate talents on the line. They dominated an OSU team with some talented OL. It doesn't seem they've taken a major step back (LBs were quality players but impact overrated.)
The key matchup here is probably the brain of Denard vs the brains of MSU safeties. We'll be adequate at running the ball, because of Denard and scheme, but MSU is going to follow the proven recipe of stacking extra defenders into the box - playing soft coverage, and waiting for Denard to throw an INT. If Denard makes good decisions (or the safeties screw up and make it easy on him), then we'll score. If they continue to contain the run and Denard isn't throwing for TDs, we could be in trouble.
I actually think the other side of the matchup (our D vs their run game) is the more interesting one.
October 11th, 2011 at 4:43 PM ^
Why was this marked as overrated? I thought he provided interesting (and new) insight.
October 11th, 2011 at 4:17 PM ^
This will definitely be the best defense we've played so far, and likely will be the best defense we see all season (possible exceptions of Wisconsin and bowl opponent excluded). Our offense, though scoring efficiently, hasn't quite shown the "pop" of last season on a per-play basis, specifically the running game. NW showed that if you want to, you can control our ground game, and I'm a little worried that MSU could do the same thing without having to be quite as aggressive.
I hope Borges and Co. have held a little back that can give us a spark when we inevitably need one.
I think we have five scoring drives on the day, and will need to convert better than we did last year to win.
October 11th, 2011 at 4:33 PM ^
5 scoring drives? Well we can't kick field goals...so I guess that gives us 35 points.
October 11th, 2011 at 4:36 PM ^
We're 4-6 on field goals this year. Let's give Gibbons a little credit; he's made everything from 38 in.
October 11th, 2011 at 9:59 PM ^
Well hell I could drill a few from 38 inches too. /s
October 11th, 2011 at 4:27 PM ^
I hope Gardner gets some more throws this game. His rollout pass against NW was on the numbers despite being on the move. That was the best looking pass I've seen since ...? Mallet? It was a modest pass, but he made it look routine.
October 11th, 2011 at 4:35 PM ^
I am sticking with the pessimism. It's working this year for me. I was an optimist the past 3 years and it didn't work so well. So this year, I have been a lot more critical and pessimistic. I thought NW was going to come down to the last minute and didn't have the best feeling about it. I had the same feelings about ND and SDSU. My honest feeling this time against MSU is not a good one either, so hopefully that is a good thing.
I just believe Denard will make too many mistakes that he won't be able to make enough of the jaw dropping great plays to overcome. I hope I am wrong.
October 11th, 2011 at 4:47 PM ^
You're very close to a counter-jinx there.