"8-4, Gator Bowl" v. LSU: Phil Steele

Submitted by NateVolk on

Phil Steele said today on ESPN radio that he full expects Michigan to win 8 games and go to the Gator Bowl.

I have heard the name and might have read some of his work in his preview magazine.  ESPN was pumping him up as being the most reliable of anyone in the college game in predicting teams seasons ahead of time.

Do you all agree that he is more knowledgable then most?

Does what he says carry more weight then the your average dude like Huge, Ray Bentley, Kirk Herbstreet or whomever? Or his he just another talking head?

I won't ask if this gives you more or less confidence in the season, but answer that too if you want.

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bklein09

August 30th, 2010 at 4:19 PM ^

Phil Steele does lots of interesting things with statistics. You can buy his season preview magazine if you'd like, all 500 pages of it with 8 point font.

That being said, I take him a little more seriously than the guys you mentioned.

I really like his prediction by the way, and at this point, everything gives me a little more confidence. 

Joined: 08/24/2009

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umjgheitma

August 30th, 2010 at 4:19 PM ^

I think if Molk stays healthy all year and we have one new guy on defense turn out to be pretty good (i.e. 0.0 to +0.5 average on UFRs) then we should be able to get 8 wins this year.

Joined: 12/02/2008

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TSWC

August 30th, 2010 at 5:03 PM ^

And he'll be happy to tell you. About half the text in his preview mag is spent telling us his track record, how good it is, and how it's better than everyone else's. The preview is good stuff, he dies tons of homework, but he sells himself awfully hard too.

Joined: 09/08/2009

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CarlisleWolverine

August 30th, 2010 at 4:22 PM ^

Bill King (He can make a Wolverine purr...) has Phil on his radio show every Thursday.  He breaks down everything.  Oh, yeh, his side kick Jason is a big Maize and Blue guy.

Joined: 09/27/2009

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Don

August 30th, 2010 at 4:30 PM ^

There isn't a magazine anywhere that can even approach it in terms of sheer quantity of data, which his 8pt type allows for.

As for his predictions, I don't think he's quite as accurate as he says he is, but FWIW he bases his predictions on his analysis of his data. He doesn't just seem to pull stuff out of his ass at random the way so many other alleged sports journalists do.

It would be awesome to beat The Hat in a bowl game. I'd rather us play Stanford and beat the living crap out of Jimmy Hairball, but I don't know if our bowl tie-ins would have that as a possible matchup.

Joined: 06/30/2008

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Enjoy Life

August 30th, 2010 at 5:29 PM ^

Steele does his Turnover Analysis and always says that 80% of teams with double digit negative turnovers will have the same or a better record the next year.

We have had double digit negative turnovers for 2 years in a row.

Without the large negative TOM, we could have easily been 6-6 and potentially been 7-5 last year. So, an improvement to 8-4 assuming the TOM is not horrible again this year is possible.

I've also done the analysis of turnovers and discovered that: Completely ignoring turnovers, 74% of all teams with a WLM (win/loss margin) of -2 (5-7 or worse) had the same or better record the next year.

http://mgoblog.com/diaries/turnover-analysis-part-2-do-turnovers-turnar…

Essentially it is unusual for losing teams to continue losing year after year. This is even more true for Michigan.

Joined: 07/02/2008

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NateVolk

August 30th, 2010 at 5:34 PM ^

I don't think there is any we could be as bad on turnover margin this year as 09 if we soaked Denard's hands in warm crisco oil before every series and allowed the other teams offense the privilege of one mulligan turnover per half. When I saw the stats in league play from last year I almost fainted. If we even that out or take the advantage in that stat, I don't see how we could be worse than 7 wins. Sounds like good reasoning to me.

Joined: 07/19/2010

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MaizenBlueBP

August 30th, 2010 at 6:17 PM ^

Any relation to the 1997 national championship dominant defensive hoss Glen? Either way it seems like he knows, and follows college football a lot more then others.  I also have us a 8-4 in the outback bowl against Auburn.  GO BLUE

Joined: 08/03/2009

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Rmilkman

August 30th, 2010 at 6:57 PM ^

If the secondary steps up, I think 8 wins is logical. We're not playing too many "elite" teams this year. If we win the first six and get the other 2 against Purdue and Illinois, we get the 8-4.

Even with the secondary in the state that it is, I'm pretty confident we can get the 8-4 without too much resistance.

Joined: 08/13/2010

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Maize and Blue…

August 30th, 2010 at 7:25 PM ^

OSU, Iowa, Wisconsin, and PSU all had 10 or more wins last year.  MSU, UConn, BGSU went to bowls and ND was eligible but declined.

Per the AP we play #'s 2, 9, 12, 19, 31, and 32 (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/polls?poll=1&week=2).   USA has us playing #'s 2, 10, 12, 14, 33, 35, and 40. (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/polls?poll=3&week=2)

Joined: 03/15/2009

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pdxwolve

August 31st, 2010 at 12:04 AM ^

I  saw this on umgoblog when I googled his 2009 prediction. 

"Phil Steele’s 2009 College Football Preview (On newsstands now) predicts Michigan to finish 6th in the Big Ten and as the 48th overall team in the country and play in the Champ Sports Bowl against Miami (FL). "

http://umgoblog.com/post/162.aspx

Basically, the article goes on to break down some of Steele's info. This obviously did not include the multitude of turnovers, but it is a reasonably interesting read, just the same.

II so frickin' hope we pull 8-4 this year. I'm nervous as hell about the UConn game, but as long as we win the turnovers, I think we're going to get it. Can't wait to hear whether the stadium is as loud as advertised post renovations.

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